B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

684,897 Views | 4780 Replies | Last: 4 hrs ago by trouble
Rapier108
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trouble said:

Did anyone else see Rusty's facebook post about the number of cases at the Hamilton Unit?

Are those included in our numbers and was it designated as a cluster in the charts? Because 250 cases is hugely significant and would definitely skew what the rest of the county looks like. I'll grab a link to his facebook in just a minute.

https://www.facebook.com/1907704179509819/posts/2711330249147204/
My post at the top of page 53 was about the Hamilton Unit. I was wondering when it would be made public.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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AG
Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q


Once again the person making the graphic PDF should be fired. The English and Spanish % are way off. I went with Spanish due to more similar to yesterdays.
isitjustme
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Different idea.

Instead of using number of cases as a threshold for mandates (ie >20 cases in a county and county must adhere to face covering mandate), how about something like number of active cases as % of population? I just calculated that for Brazos County as 0.45%. This would put all counties on a more level playing field.

Now whether that threshold % is 0.1%, 0.5%, 1% or 2%, or whatever is another discussion. But in our case, mandates over something < 1/2 a % of the population have is pretty silly to me.
Bunk Moreland
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Some additional color on the Florida lab situation (and I'm sure TX too)....

The initial response to the weirdness of the 100% positives is that some labs are (through incompetence, lack of time, focus resources elsewhere or whatever) only sending the positive numbers over and not the negative tests, or sending incomplete data and information. That is leading to some labs having weird statistics when the state is releasing the raw data.

I happen to buy that as a legit reason more than I buy that labs are cooking numbers or committing fraud in some sort of conspiracy to pump the case count up. We'll see as more investigating takes place what the ultimate outcome is.

That said, I still fully believe that while it's legal and hospitals are definitely doing it so they can financially benefit, identifying any patient who comes in and happens to test positive as a COVID-hospitalization, or someone who died in a car wreck or of a heart attack that tested positive is a COVID-death....that's incredibly unethical and our federal and state govt's should demand the practice come to an end and hospitals/labs start finding ways to separate those statistics.
lockett93
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agrab86 said:

Different idea.
...
Now whether that threshold % is 0.1%, 0.5%, 1% or 2%, or whatever is another discussion. But in our case, mandates over something < 1/2 a % of the population have is pretty silly to me.
We are now at 1.37% confirmed of total county population of 233,000. If prior estimates are that 10% higher than that acutally have had it, then we'd be at 14%. I hope the latest T-Cell and herd immunity of only 20% is true. If so, we are nearly there!!!!

The 36 total deaths in our county is 0.0154% of residents have died, approximately 1 out of 6500. Of those, over half were in assisted living facilities. Not that any death is good, but we don't stop driving cars (15 deaths in Brazos county in 2019 per this document http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/trf/crash_statistics/2019/13.pdf) or lower the speed limit to 20 due to the inherent risk of driving.

(updated to 233,000 population and corrected math for 36 deaths...)
isitjustme
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lockett93 said:

agrab86 said:

Different idea.
...
Now whether that threshold % is 0.1%, 0.5%, 1% or 2%, or whatever is another discussion. But in our case, mandates over something < 1/2 a % of the population have is pretty silly to me.
We are now at 1.43% confirmed of total county population of 223,000. If prior estimates are that 10% higher than that acutally have had it, then we'd be at 14%. I hope the latest T-Cell and herd immunity of only 20% is true. If so, we are nearly there!!!!

The total deaths in our county is 0.0139% of residents have died, approximately 1 out of 7500. Of those, over half were in assisted living facilities. Not that any death is good, but we don't stop driving cars (15 deaths in Brazos county in 2019 per this document http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/trf/crash_statistics/2019/13.pdf) or lower the speed limit to 20 due to the inherent risk of driving.


I believe that 1.43% is total cases. About 65% have recovered and 36 individuals have passed leaving around 1,100 active cases, or about 0.45%. Note, I used a higher population based on a 2019 estimate, but still less that 0.5%.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/tx/brazos-county-population#:~:text=2%2F17%2F2020%20Brazos%20County%2C%20Texas%20Population%202020%20Brazos%20County%2C,Texas%20is%20the%2023rd%20largest%20county%20in%20Texas.

ETA: Since I can no longer find the higher estimate but did see a 233,000 2020 estimate, I will begin using 233,000. Doesn't change the idea. Percentage of pop vs a number like 20 or 50 or whatever.
Rapier108
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53 New Cases
218 New Tests
2 New Deaths (Both men, one 80 and one 90, both hospitalized)
Looks like 26 in the hospital from the ugly graphic. Hospital % didn't change much so we likely got more out of county people, or some more non-virus patients. Probably a bit of both.

77801 +4
77802 +9
77803 +10
77807 +4
77808 +2
77840 +5
77845 +17
77866 +2

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.16.20.pdf

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
lockett93
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Spreadsheet updated.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11DhOiIPQwUQ5teJsvOV_JYp-zDkE4Eq5bQ91fud7y9Q
trouble
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5 discharges

133 recovered

26 Brazos County patients, 70 total in regional

Total Bed Occupancy: 78%

Total ICU Bed Occupancy: 86%

Region stats

Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 500
Available Hospital Beds - 128
Available ICU Beds - 1
Available Ventilators - 38
isitjustme
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By my math there are currently 989 active cases in Brazos county, or about 0.42% of the population.
trouble
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1,025 as of today
isitjustme
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trouble said:

1,025 as of today
3,253 positive results - 2,226 recoveries - 38 deaths = 989 active cases. What am I missing?
trouble
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agrab86 said:

trouble said:

1,025 as of today
3,253 positive results - 2,226 recoveries - 38 deaths = 989 active cases. What am I missing?


That your math is likely better than the health department. That's where I got my number
FlyRod
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I'm sure I'll regret asking this, but when that one remaining ICU bed is occupied (assuming no vacancies happen which of course they can), what happens? Where might locals who need one be transferred to?
isitjustme
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trouble said:

agrab86 said:

trouble said:

1,025 as of today
3,253 positive results - 2,226 recoveries - 38 deaths = 989 active cases. What am I missing?


That your math is likely better than the health department. That's where I got my number
I'm just going off of their graphic from today.

https://www.facebook.com/BrazosCountyHealthDistrict/photos/a.296465093757741/3967268090010738/?type=3
isitjustme
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FlyRod said:

I'm sure I'll regret asking this, but when that one remaining ICU bed is occupied (assuming no vacancies happen which of course they can), what happens? Where might locals who need one be transferred to?
Closest available. But they will in all likelihood halt other procedures that could lead to the ICU or set up temp ICU. I would bet that most ICU beds are not taken by covid, so this is more of a general capacity question anyway.
trouble
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They likely reevaluated everyone who was in ICU this morning to see who was ready to transfer out. It's incredibly rare that there's no way to "make a bed" when it comes to ICU.
trouble
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In the post with the graphic, it says 1025.
toolshed
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Quack shack, of course! Students are gone, probably lots of beds and dr's there!
isitjustme
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trouble said:

In the post with the graphic, it says 1025.
I guess if you have passed away, then you don't meet the criteria as having recovered. Not trying to be macabre here, but I would not consider any of those deceased to be an active case either.
trouble
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They shouldn't be
dubi
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trouble said:

They likely reevaluated everyone who was in ICU this morning to see who was ready to transfer out. It's incredibly rare that there's no way to "make a bed" when it comes to ICU.


They will also hold them in PACU Indefinitely.
nought
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1 ICU bed free.

ICU at 86% capacity.

That means that 1 ICU bed is the same as 14% capacity. 100 divided by 14 = 7.14, which means that if we believe today's numbers from the health department, there are 7 or 8 total ICU beds in all of Brazos County. Scott and White alone has more than that.
trouble
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1 staffed ICU bed. We don't know that there was only one physical bed available.
cavscout96
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nought said:

1 ICU bed free.

ICU at 86% capacity.

That means that 1 ICU bed is the same as 14% capacity. 100 divided by 14 = 7.14, which means that if we believe today's numbers from the health department, there are 7 or 8 total ICU beds in all of Brazos County. Scott and White alone has more than that.

Mind boggling, isn't it?

It's no wonder so many people won't take anything they read about this thing seriously. The most unnerving thing about this whole Charlie Foxtrot is the absolute lack of attention to detail and accountability.

My crayon post a couple of days ago was only partly "tongue-in-cheek." How can anyone seriously think their garbage graphic conveys any sort of useful information? The incompetence is almost laughable.
JMac03
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Rapier108 said:

54 New Cases
1 New Death (Male in his 50s)
705 New Tests
30 in the hospital (+7 -0)

77801 +4
77802 +4
77803 +15
77807 +4
77808 +2
77840 +7
77845 +17
77868 +1

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.14.20.pdf
I am assuming this "death" is from 7/12. I figured it would have been reported 7/13. He was a generally healthy male. The world lost a great man Monday
Rapier108
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No way to tell when the deaths are from. Like most details, the BCHD refuses to give more than numbers.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
JMac03
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Since no deaths had been reported since 7/12, and reported as a man in his 50's, I can only "assume" it was the person I know. Just need to know the date they are showing the death may not be accurate to when they died.
FlyRod
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I can confirm that he passed on Monday. Someone posted that the Health Dept would report it the following day, which they did. Whether the one day lag is true for all fatalities, I have no idea...it seems no one does.
BlueMiles
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cavscout96 said:

nought said:

1 ICU bed free.

ICU at 86% capacity.

That means that 1 ICU bed is the same as 14% capacity. 100 divided by 14 = 7.14, which means that if we believe today's numbers from the health department, there are 7 or 8 total ICU beds in all of Brazos County. Scott and White alone has more than that.

Mind boggling, isn't it?

It's no wonder so many people won't take anything they read about this thing seriously. The most unnerving thing about this whole Charlie Foxtrot is the absolute lack of attention to detail and accountability.

My crayon post a couple of days ago was only partly "tongue-in-cheek." How can anyone seriously think their garbage graphic conveys any sort of useful information? The incompetence is almost laughable.

Doesn't strike me as very "scientific."
Rapier108
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60 New Cases
0 New Deaths
163 New Tests
Looks like 29 in the hospital (No surprise, Broadcastify was lit up last night with numerous cases of "respiratory problems/difficulty breathing".)
Total % of ICU occupancy dropped 11%.

77801 +6
77802 +2
77803 +23
77807 +3
77808 +2
77840 +12
77845 +11
77881 +1 (First in this zip code, but it is the Wellborn post office so another useless stat)

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.17.20.pdf

There was also a revised PDF for yesterday's results.

http://brazoshealth.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/7.16.20_0.pdf
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
scd88
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Seems like we've hit the downside from the 140's peak.
Rapier108
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scd88 said:

Seems like we've hit the downside from the 140's peak.
Hopefully. We'll see what happens when A&M starts testing thousands a week like they claim they're going to do.

Of course, if they did 15,000 tests in short order (that's how many per month they claim they will have) it would be no surprise to see 400-500 positive results.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
isitjustme
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Now showing 982 active cases - the Health Dept now matches my calculation. Is that a victory for accuracy as a result this thread? So, 0.41% is the current active case rate in Brazos county.

So I repeat a question - Why all these restrictions in Brazos county when less than 1/2 percent of the population has the covid?
91_Aggie
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agrab86 said:

Now showing 982 active cases - the Health Dept now matches my calculation. Is that a victory for accuracy as a result this thread? So, 0.41% is the current active case rate in Brazos county.

So I repeat a question - Why all these restrictions in Brazos county when less than 1/2 percent of the population has the covid?


The reason is that the media keeps publishing dire articles that our hospitals will be overrun and people will die.
And govt officials do not want to be seen as not following the narrative being presented.

And since there is daily conflicting information from the experts no one in "power" wants to take any kind of risk.
 
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