B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

802,307 Views | 5543 Replies | Last: 19 min ago by maroon barchetta
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 244 new confirmed cases, 8 probable cases, 49 (+1) Brazos County residents hospitalized, 1,666 tests, 1 death - white male in his 50's.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 116,933 (+178) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/15/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 98,581 (+220). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 49.75% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 146 (-1); 25% of total hospital capacity as of 9/14/21.
Expert Analysis
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From the eagle and the case number from BCHD page.
" Health officials said 4,077 cases of the virus reported by health care systems and testing centers were awaiting confirmation Thursday."
Seems there is quite an issue when there are more than 2x cases waiting confirmation than you have active reported cases. I know they said they were backlogged. It would be good to know how old some of those uninvestigated cases are. If they are more than 10 days old do they just disappear or get reported as an investigated case when that person is no longer an active COVID case?

Mimi I think it would be good if you reported the raw cases in addition to the investigates cases.

It is basically pointless right now to try and even look at our local trend based on the BCHD reported numbers. They have a data lag that is greater than our actual case count. These higher numbers are going to drag out for a week or two more when the A&M testing will have been over for 3 weeks.

As has been the case the hospital numbers are the only numbers that are remotely reliable to look at. Fortunately they are getting better for us. However the media will run with these record case numbers even though they may be weeks old numbers and majority resulting from the 79k TAMU tests. Media is already cherry picking school district number to compare to BISD and CISD. Our local school districts are going to have inflated numbers due to contact tracing resulting from the TAMU testing.
Tailgate88
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Expert Analysis said:

From the eagle and the case number from BCHD page.
" Health officials said 4,077 cases of the virus reported by health care systems and testing centers were awaiting confirmation Thursday."
Seems there is quite an issue when there are more than 2x cases waiting confirmation than you have active reported cases. I know they said they were backlogged. It would be good to know how old some of those uninvestigated cases are. If they are more than 10 days old do they just disappear or get reported as an investigated case when that person is no longer an active COVID case?

Mimi I think it would be good if you reported the raw cases in addition to the investigates cases.

It is basically pointless right now to try and even look at our local trend based on the BCHD reported numbers. They have a data lag that is greater than our actual case count. These higher numbers are going to drag out for a week or two more when the A&M testing will have been over for 3 weeks.

As has been the case the hospital numbers are the only numbers that are remotely reliable to look at. Fortunately they are getting better for us. However the media will run with these record case numbers even though they may be weeks old numbers and majority resulting from the 79k TAMU tests. Media is already cherry picking school district number to compare to BISD and CISD. Our local school districts are going to have inflated numbers due to contact tracing resulting from the TAMU testing.
Username checks out!
isitjustme
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Expert Analysis said:

From the eagle and the case number from BCHD page.
" Health officials said 4,077 cases of the virus reported by health care systems and testing centers were awaiting confirmation Thursday."
Seems there is quite an issue when there are more than 2x cases waiting confirmation than you have active reported cases. I know they said they were backlogged. It would be good to know how old some of those uninvestigated cases are. If they are more than 10 days old do they just disappear or get reported as an investigated case when that person is no longer an active COVID case?

Mimi I think it would be good if you reported the raw cases in addition to the investigates cases.

It is basically pointless right now to try and even look at our local trend based on the BCHD reported numbers. They have a data lag that is greater than our actual case count. These higher numbers are going to drag out for a week or two more when the A&M testing will have been over for 3 weeks.

As has been the case the hospital numbers are the only numbers that are remotely reliable to look at. Fortunately they are getting better for us. However the media will run with these record case numbers even though they may be weeks old numbers and majority resulting from the 79k TAMU tests. Media is already cherry picking school district number to compare to BISD and CISD. Our local school districts are going to have inflated numbers due to contact tracing resulting from the TAMU testing.
EA, it's ok if you start reporting those raw numbers as well. We all have our own data interests, but the more posters of data, the better.
FlyRod
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Did I miss the disappearance of Lockett and that wonderful spreadsheet?
isitjustme
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FlyRod said:

Did I miss the disappearance of Lockett and that wonderful spreadsheet?
It appears lockett discontinued updating 8/17 after taking June and July off.

Cases by day - Google Sheets
lockett93
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isitjustme said:

FlyRod said:

Did I miss the disappearance of Lockett and that wonderful spreadsheet?
It appears lockett discontinued updating 8/17 after taking June and July off.

Cases by day - Google Sheets
I started to begin entering data again, but decided to not spend the time to update it daily... The majority of the data is available on the BCHD page, so the only real value I saw was seeing the age of the cases over time, and most weren't over 50, so it wasn't really valuable..

It is editable if anyone else wants to start updating it. I'm happy to help/answer any questions on how to do so. bill.lockett at gmail.com
trouble
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9/16/21 12:20 pm

34 available hospital beds

0 available ICU beds

69 available ventilators

27 Covid patients on ventilators

56 ICU patients

31 Covid ICU patients

MiMi
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Today's numbers: 204 new confirmed cases (4,343 raw cases*), 7 probable cases, 49 (-0) Brazos County residents hospitalized, 2,135 tests, 5 deaths - 3 white males in their 80's, 70's, and 60's. 2 white females in their 80's and 90's.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 117,086 (+153) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/16/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 98,842 (+261). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 49.88% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 128 (-18); 21.41% of total hospital capacity as of 9/15/21.

*raw cases is the total number of cases reported to the BCHD and have not been investigated and confirmed yet.
isitjustme
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Week of 7/5: 73 cases, 1,579 tests, 4.6%PCR
Week of 7/12: 113 cases, 2,009 tests, 5.6%
Week of 7/19: 204 cases, 3,745 tests, 5.45%
Week of 7/26: 275 cases, 4,673 tests, 5.9%
Week of 8/2: 291 cases, 4,261 tests, 6.8%
Week of 8/9: 482 cases, 4,706 tests, 10.2%
Week of 8/16: 383 cases, 5,508 tests, 7.0%
Week of 8/23: 617 cases, 7,964 tests, 7.75%
Week of 8/30: 652 cases, 17,609 tests, 3.7%
Week of 9/7: 891 cases, 19,182 tests, 4.6%
Week of 9/14: 966 cases, 16,479 tests, 5.9%

8 reported deaths - 3 earlier in the week were 40s/50s yo. Today's 5 were 60s-90s. College age majority of today's reported cases, maybe this week's. As the rest of the TAMU testing results come in, look for that to hold.
cavscout96
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isitjustme said:

Week of 7/5: 73 cases, 1,579 tests, 4.6%PCR
Week of 7/12: 113 cases, 2,009 tests, 5.6%
Week of 7/19: 204 cases, 3,745 tests, 5.45%
Week of 7/26: 275 cases, 4,673 tests, 5.9%
Week of 8/2: 291 cases, 4,261 tests, 6.8%
Week of 8/9: 482 cases, 4,706 tests, 10.2%
Week of 8/16: 383 cases, 5,508 tests, 7.0%
Week of 8/23: 617 cases, 7,964 tests, 7.75%
Week of 8/30: 652 cases, 17,609 tests, 3.7%
Week of 9/7: 891 cases, 19,182 tests, 4.6%
Week of 9/14: 966 cases, 16,479 tests, 5.9%

8 reported deaths - 3 earlier in the week were 40s/50s yo. Today's 5 were 60s-90s. College age majority of today's reported cases, maybe this week's. As the rest of the TAMU testing results come in, look for that to hold.
as someone speculated earlier.... there is a good chance we see "inflated" numbers for several weeks do the massive amount of testing and the time to investigate... whatever that actually means.

and, also as stated earlier, by the time these are "confirmed," they will be OBE.

Kick-R
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Wish the campus testing didn't coincide with the timeline from the first football game. Would be very interesting to see if there was any kind of case increase from attending the game and being around that many people. Case study in outdoor transmission, among other things.
TommyBrady
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You cant really have a case study in football game spreading when the kids are partying Wed-Sun. The amount of exposures at Northgate, Date Partys, T-Shirt Tuesday, Harrys Thursday Night, etc. makes any kind of actual study impossible.
cavscout96
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TommyBrady said:

You cant really have a case study in football game spreading when the kids are partying Wed-Sun. The amount of exposures at Northgate, Date Partys, T-Shirt Tuesday, Harrys Thursday Night, etc. makes any kind of actual study impossible.
agreed. too many variables.
Kick-R
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Was moreso referring to adults and how many would have contracted from others/students. Regardless, there isn't much control but I would have still liked to see the natural impact without the bloated test counts.
FlyRod
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Are Monday and Friday typically "high" caseload reporting days? Seems someone noted this before.

Also, the BCHD dashboard is reporting breakthrough case deaths (4) but not the number of breakthrough cases? Did I miss this somewhere?
MiMi
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No weekend updates from BCHD. Looks like a bit of a data dump of vax numbers from Texas HHS.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 117,878 (+792) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/17/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 99,863 (+1,021). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 50.4% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 135 (+7); 23.24% of total hospital capacity as of 9/16/21.
trouble
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Sorry, I forgot to hit "post" on Friday so here are Friday and Saturday

9/17/21 1:10pm

31 available hospital beds

0 available ICU beds

74 available ventilators

28 Covid patients on ventilators

57 ICU patients

31 Covid ICU patients

9/18/21 1:05 pm

39 available hospital beds

0 available ICU beds

71 available ventilators

25 Covid patients on ventilators

57 ICU patients

28 Covid ICU patients
MiMi
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No weekend updates from BCHD.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 118,184 (+306) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/18/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 100,292 (+429). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 50.61% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 121 (-14); 20.51% of total hospital capacity as of 9/17/21.
scd88
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So, what are the boundaries for having the next "post-Covid" happy hour?

Asking for a friend....

Uhh...too soon?
Stupe
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How I just pictured me and scd88

scd88
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Stupe said:

How I just pictured me and scd88




Lol.
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 367 new confirmed cases (4,378 raw cases), 57 probable cases, 54 (+4) Brazos County residents hospitalized, 5,937 tests, 1 death - 1 Hispanic male in his 60's.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 118,376 (+192) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/19/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 100,600 (+308). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 50.77% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 125 (+4); 20.8% of total hospital capacity as of 9/18/21.

trouble
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Things were busy yesterday. Here's Sunday's hospital numbers

9/19/21 12:50 pm

42 available hospital beds

0 available ICU beds

69 available ventilators

27 Covid patients on ventilators

56 ICU patients

30 Covid ICU patients
Nosmo
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COVID-19 Total Fatalities by County per state spreadsheet 03-07-2020 to 09-19-2021 at 9:30 AM CST

By death certificate date of death.

AUG = 36
08/01/21 # 269 (added to state spreadsheet 8/06)
08/04/21 # 270 (added to state spreadsheet 8/06)
08/04/21 # 271 (added to state spreadsheet 8/10)
08/05/21 # 272 (added to state spreadsheet 8/10)
08/06/21 # 273 (added to state spreadsheet 8/12)
08/06/21 # 274 (added to state spreadsheet 8/13)
08/11/21 # 275 (added to state spreadsheet 8/19)
08/12/21 # 276 (added to state spreadsheet 8/16)
08/13/21 # 277 (added to state spreadsheet 8/20)
08/14/21 # 278 (added to state spreadsheet 8/18)
08/14/21 # 279 (added to state spreadsheet 8/24)
08/14/21 # 280 (added to state spreadsheet 9/1)
08/15/21 # 281 (added to state spreadsheet 8/19)
08/15/21 # 282 (added to state spreadsheet 8/23)
08/15/21 # 283 (added to state spreadsheet 8/24)
08/16/21 # 284 (added to state spreadsheet 8/26)
08/17/21 # 285 (added to state spreadsheet 8/20)
08/17/21 # 286 (added to state spreadsheet 8/24)
08/19/21 # 287 (added to state spreadsheet 8/27)
08/19/21 # 288 (added to state spreadsheet 8/30)
08/20/21 # 289 (added to state spreadsheet 8/26)
08/21/21 # 290 (added to state spreadsheet 8/27)
08/21/21 # 291 (added to state spreadsheet 8/30)
08/21/21 # 292 (added to state spreadsheet 9/3)
08/22/21 # 293 (added to state spreadsheet 8/27)
08/22/21 # 294 (added to state spreadsheet 9/8)
08/23/21 # 295 (added to state spreadsheet 8/26)
08/23/21 # 296 (added to state spreadsheet 8/30)
08/24/21 # 297 (added to state spreadsheet 8/31)
08/25/21 # 298 (added to state spreadsheet 9/1)
08/25/21 # 299 (added to state spreadsheet 9/3)
08/27/21 # 300 (added to state spreadsheet 9/1)
08/28/21 # 301 (added to state spreadsheet 9/7)
08/31/21 # 302 (added to state spreadsheet 9/3)
08/31/21 # 303 (added to state spreadsheet 9/10)
08/31/21 # 304 (added to state spreadsheet 9/11)

SEP = 11
09/01/21 # 305 (added to state spreadsheet 9/8)
09/01/21 # 306 (added to state spreadsheet 9/9)
09/01/21 # 307 (added to state spreadsheet 9/17)
09/03/21 # 308 (added to state spreadsheet 9/15)
09/05/21 # 309 (added to state spreadsheet 9/14)
09/06/21 # 310 (added to state spreadsheet 9/10)
09/08/21 # 311 (added to state spreadsheet 9/15)
09/09/21 # 312 (added to state spreadsheet 9/14)
09/09/21 # 313 (added to state spreadsheet 9/17)
09/10/21 # 314 (added to state spreadsheet 9/17)
09/11/21 # 315 (added to state spreadsheet 9/18)

315 = State count
309 = County count

Bolded reported by state in last 7 days.
Expert Analysis
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A&M will likely update their weekly totals tomorrow but their most recent listed daily number (22) is about 10% the peak number of (205). Does that mean Covid is any less prevalent? Probably not. Does the 367 cases reported by BCHD today reflect the reality of how many tested positive over the weekend? Probably not. Are all the cases from the TAMU required testing that are still in the BCHD backlog and being reported actually active cases anymore? As of today none of the positive cases from the required testing should be considered active cases.
The raw cases only made a small increase, we wont see reported local cases going down until they catch up on that number.
trouble
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9/20/21 3:35pm

45 available hospital beds

0 available ICU beds

77 available ventilators

24 Covid patients on ventilators

52 ICU patients

26 Covid ICU patients


And who knows when BCHD will report but there were at least 4 Covid deaths over the weekend. No idea if any or all are Brazos Co residents though.
Vinewood_03
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Raw cases, probable cases, my cases, your cases, data dump, my dump, weekend dump…….too much noise in the numbers. Paralysis by analysis….

Only data point critical at this point anymore is ICU Covid patients. The rest is just fog……
Rapier108
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Quote:

3 white males in their 80's, 70's, and 60's. 2 white females in their 80's and 90's.
The BCHD said today all of the "breakthrough" deaths were people 85 and older so this is probably 3 of them.

That said, there are 3 nursing homes with cases again. One of them had 3 EMS calls just tonight, while the other two seem to have burned out fairly quickly as I haven't heard anything from them in about a week. All three are ones which had major outbreaks in mid/late-2020 and early 2021.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
EBrazosAg
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Good take. The general doctor/hospital feel is that we have been at/post peak for 2 weeks or maybe a little more. Not at the rapid decline stage yet - my gestalt on that is one or two more weeks. The report numbers are obviously a trailing indicator confounded by changing methodology.
cavscout96
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EBrazosAg said:

Good take. The general doctor/hospital feel is that we have been at/post peak for 2 weeks or maybe a little more. Not at the rapid decline stage yet - my gestalt on that is one or two more weeks. The report numbers are obviously a trailing indicator confounded by changing methodology.


report numbers are obviously a trailing indicator confounded by changing methodology.

This^^^
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 230 new confirmed cases (4,378 raw cases), 17 probable cases, 51 (-3) Brazos County residents hospitalized, 788 tests, 0 deaths.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 118,453 (+77) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/20/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 100,731 (+131). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 50.84% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 124 (-1); 20.95% of total hospital capacity as of 9/19/21.
Nosmo
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https://www.tamu.edu/coronavirus/dashboard/

Weekly COVID-19 Testing Activity and Positivity at Texas A&M University

Wk end -------- test -------- positive
07/03/21 -------- 311 -------- 5 ( 1.6% )
07/10/21 -------- 195 -------- 6 ( 3.1% )
07/17/21 -------- 323 ------- 16 ( 5.0% )
07/24/21 -------- 459 ------- 32 ( 7.0% )
07/31/21 -------- 719 ------- 60 ( 8.3% )
08/07/21 ------- 1,080 ------ 89 ( 8.2% )
08/14/21 ------- 1,432 ----- 144 ( 10.1% )
08/21/21 ------- 2,346 ----- 139 ( 5.9% )
08/28/21 ------ 28,967 ---- 774 ( 2.7% )
09/04/21 ------ 22,245 --- 1,116 ( 5.0% )
09/11/21 ------ 27,880 --- 1,498 ( 5.4% )
09/18/21 ------- 5,088 ---- 356 ( 7.0% )

PS: Website posting last two weeks as both Sep 11. I assume it's a typo so I used 9/18/21.

Hornbeck
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Vinewood_03 said:

Raw cases, probable cases, my cases, your cases, data dump, my dump, weekend dump…….too much noise in the numbers. Paralysis by analysis….

Only data point critical at this point anymore is ICU Covid patients. The rest is just fog……


But that doesn't whip the media into a feeding frenzy.
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 391 new confirmed cases (4,203 raw cases), 96 probable cases, 45 (-6) Brazos County residents hospitalized, 577 tests, 3 deaths - 2 white females in their 80's and 90's. 1 Hispanic male in his 70's. All hospitalized.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 118,583 (+150) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 9/21/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 100,904 (+173). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 50.92% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 117 (-7); 19.93% of total hospital capacity as of 9/20/21.
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