B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

766,180 Views | 5287 Replies | Last: 38 min ago by Sarvab
Belton Ag
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EBrazosAg said:

I don't think you can trust hospital or deaths. In fact I'm certain you can't.
What about the hospital numbers makes it so they can't be trusted?
trouble
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EBrazosAg said:

I don't think you can trust hospital or deaths. In fact I'm certain you can't.


I trust the hospital numbers because it's a statewide reporting. It's not the health department.
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 65 new confirmed cases, 29 probable cases, 261 tests, 0 deaths, 44 (+4) Brazos County residents hospitalized.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 105,295 (+267) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 8/2/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 90,480 (+118). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.66% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 94 (+3); 16.94% of total hospital capacity as of 8/1/21.
FlyRod
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Got a test at one of the TAMU kiosks and noticed they are using a new shallow nasal swab instead of the oral swab. When I asked why, I was told, "Oh we're testing for other things now in addition to Covid, like the flu and RSV."

Interesting.
MadDog73
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FlyRod said:

Got a test at one of the TAMU kiosks and noticed they are using a new shallow nasal swab instead of the oral swab. When I asked why, I was told, "Oh we're testing for other things now in addition to Covid, like the flu and RSV."

Interesting.
How quick do you get results?
“Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, today is a gift of God, which is why we call it the present.”
? Bill Keane
trouble
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By the end of the year, all testing sites are supposed to have shifted to a multi virus test.
FlyRod
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Quote:

How quick do you get results?

In under 24 hours. The catch is ( I think) they only give you the result on Covid, and not the others. But I'm going to double check that. Obviously they are as much about collecting data as doing you a service (I guess).
EBrazosAg
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I work in the hospital. And I don't trust the number
trouble
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Yes, you've mentioned that before.

It's not just your hospital reporting and it's not something new. Even before Covid, we reported census to the state daily. That's why the Covid dashboard is done by trauma region, that's how we were already reporting.
spike427
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So are the actual local hospital numbers higher? Lower? It varies?
EBrazosAg
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Yeah, it's the BVRAC. I've been to the meetings. And yet I still don't trust the #s..
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 76 new confirmed cases, 8 probable cases, 527 tests, 0 deaths, 36 (-8) Brazos County residents hospitalized.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 105,491 (+196) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 8/3/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 90,560 (+80). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.7% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 95 (+1); 16.52% of total hospital capacity as of 8/2/21.
trouble
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Updated numbers as of 3:35pm, 8/4/21

Trauma Service Area N

2020 Population Estimate - 360,335
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 584
Available Hospital Beds - 66
Available ICU Beds - 1
Available Ventilators - 82
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 87
Total Hospitalizations - 390
Total Staffed Inpatient Beds - 456
cavscout96
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trouble said:

Updated numbers as of 3:35pm, 8/4/21

Trauma Service Area N

2020 Population Estimate - 360,335
Total Staffed Hospital Beds - 584
Available Hospital Beds - 66
Available ICU Beds - 1
Available Ventilators - 82
Lab-Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently In Hospital - 87
Total Hospitalizations - 390
Total Staffed Inpatient Beds - 456


87 =/= 95 reported by BCHD.....
cavscout96
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Also, math is hard...

95 of 595 is only 15.9%

87 of 595 is 14.6%


I guess if if you can't even count (BCHD), expecting you to execute basic arithmetic is definitely a bridge too far...
Ratsa
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The Trauma Service Area N numbers are typically updated every afternoon, while the Health District numbers are usually updated in the mornings. That means the TSA N numbers that Mimi provides each morning are from the previous afternoon. I would expect the number she reports tomorrow morning will match what Trouble posted this afternoon.
trouble
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Ratsa said:

The Trauma Service Area N numbers are typically updated every afternoon, while the Health District numbers are usually updated in the mornings. That means the TSA N numbers that Mimi provides each morning are from the previous afternoon. I would expect the number she reports tomorrow morning will match what Trouble posted this afternoon.
This.

and it's why I posted the date and time.
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 56 new confirmed cases, 3 probable cases, 0? tests, 0 deaths, 33 (-3) Brazos County residents hospitalized.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 105,809 (+318) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 8/4/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 90,686 (+126). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.77% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 87 (-8); 14.9% of total hospital capacity as of 8/3/21.
Rapier108
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Oh joy, back to the "zero/almost zero tests" days. We all know that's junk. We saw it countless times in 2020. Then one day there will be several thousand tests reported, as they play catch up. The same thing will eventually happen with reported deaths when they catch up with the state numbers, but some people will think all of those deaths happens the day before.

Testing right now is sky high because of the fear created by the media over the DV. People get a runny nose and run out to get tested. Also, some doctors are testing anyone who comes in with even minor symptoms which are likely going to be allergies or a harmless cold virus. (We already known that numerous other respiratory viruses, RSV being the most often mentioned, have been running amok for a while now). I know two people who found they had the China virus this way when their only symptoms was a stuffy nose and a sinus headache. Neither ran fever, had a cough, or anything else that would have made them think they had anything but allergies/cold. Both are fine and back to their normal life.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
cavscout96
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Ratsa said:

The Trauma Service Area N numbers are typically updated every afternoon, while the Health District numbers are usually updated in the mornings. That means the TSA N numbers that Mimi provides each morning are from the previous afternoon. I would expect the number she reports tomorrow morning will match what Trouble posted this afternoon.
Thanks for the clarification.

So, BCHD lag is another point of ineptitude, got it.
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trouble
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As much as I dislike the health dept, this isn't a lag. They are just reporting at different times. Morning is when they've decided to do updates.
FlyRod
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^ Correct.
MiMi
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Quote:

Correct.
Yes. The state posts Trauma Service Region hospitalization numbers in the afternoon, which is actually data from the previous day. The following morning, BCHD includes those numbers with their county data. Today's Trauma Service Region hospitalization numbers are from August 3rd.
Jbob04
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The lead story on your favorite news channel last night was Covid. Rusty looked pretty excited with the doom and gloom
cavscout96
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Trouble - I get you on different reporting times, but lag is the best word I can think of since it as a lag from real time

so the "trends" actually have a two day lag. 48 hours of "lag" is pretty significant, at least in the mental paradigm associated with my previous profession. Like, YUGE; completely unacceptable.

Now, there is, admittedly, a chance my paradigm doesn't fit this situation.

On the upside, when we see a consistent downward trend, we are actually further along than we think in getting through the spike, yes? Again, 48 hours is significant in my thinking.
FlyRod
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Probably overly optimistic, but in addition to the UK and India, I'm hearing of Delta cases peaking and starting to fall in some other southern states...keeping my fingers crossed that will happen here.

Also curious if the predicted spike when students hit town will perhaps be mitigated by most (lots?) of the kids already being infected earlier, or this summer wherever they were?
Belton Ag
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This has been the pattern for all Delta spikes worldwide, and will be here as well. Hopefully we'll go back to "normal" soon. If it follows the same pattern as everywhere else then we should be on the backside of this thing within a week or so.

I just hope more people take the opportunity to get vaccinated.
trouble
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The number of new cases is starting to fall in some places but their hospitalization rates are still high. The people being admitted to ICU and intubated with this wave are staying there longer. They are younger and have healthier bodies so even if they are in a terminal decline, it takes longer for them to die.
trouble
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The people who need to know this information to make decisions have it in real time. It makes very little difference of the general public doesn't know it for a day or 2.

The trend is what we need to look at. Hospitals are filling up and ICUs are unable to "make a bed" when necessary because the Covid patients they have can't be moved to a lower level of care.
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cavscout96
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trouble said:

The people who need to know this information to make decisions have it in real time. It makes very little difference of the general public doesn't know it for a day or 2.

The trend is what we need to look at. Hospitals are filling up and ICUs are unable to "make a bed" when necessary because the Covid patients they have can't be moved to a lower level of care.


Helpful perspective.
src94
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So Nebraska doesn't have a single case, or do they just not report them?
dubi
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trouble said:

The people who need to know this information to make decisions have it in real time. It makes very little difference of the general public doesn't know it for a day or 2.

The trend is what we need to look at. Hospitals are filling up and ICUs are unable to "make a bed" when necessary because the Covid patients they have can't be moved to a lower level of care.
You don't know what percent of ICU patients are covid patients....

You just know the ICU is full.....
trouble
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I can find that information for other areas but no, the bchd doesn't think it's info we need.

For instance, here's yesterday's numbers from region O (Austin)

 
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