B/CS number of cases update? 11-17-20 Staff Edit on OP

770,713 Views | 5321 Replies | Last: 20 min ago by trouble
trouble
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Slocum on a mobile said:

trouble said:

I'm just worried that we are going to see a huge increase in a couple weeks.


Like when the students hit town? Or amongst the townies?


Students. Not because they are specifically vulnerable or anything. Just the numbers game.
new straw
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Is it possible that the difference in percentage is vaccinated in their hometown who now live here?
trouble
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No clue. I don't think Sullivan gave any source for his percentage.
new straw
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Fair enough. Just trying to figure it out.
BlueMiles
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Is there a way to distinguish one variant from another? I thought I'd been told there was not.
trouble
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A simple Covid test cannot but it can be identified through PCR.
BlueMiles
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Thank you, trouble!
EBrazosAg
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/29/cdc-mask-guidance/
MiMi
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Today's numbers: 86 new confirmed cases, 6 probable cases, 1250 tests, 31 (+0) Brazos County residents hospitalized.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 104,226 (+232) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/29/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 89,956 (+131). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.4% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 69 (+4); 12.13% of total hospital capacity as of 7/28/21.
Nosmo
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trouble said:

I found the kbtx article. Here's the numbers.

So far for July, 87% of positives have been in unvaccinated individuals.

Only 3 vaccinated people have been hospitalized.

We have 16 known cases of Delta. Suspected to be higher since most positives aren't getting additional testing. (This wasn't said but I suspect the Delta cases have been in the hospitalized)

Sullivan says that 52% of eligible are vaccinated but that's not the numbers we've been seeing.

Since vaccination started, we've seen 109 documented breakthrough cases.
I typically don't post vaccine numbers on this thread since there was another thread for that, but according to my numbers the 52% is pretty close (see correction below in PPSS) to what I came up with based on raw data.

Vaccinations by age groups with "at least one shot" status for the Texas and Brazos County as percent. Last two columns are the count of Brazos County residents with "at least one shot" "BC >=1" along with change over last 7 days, and finally county residents that have not had any vaccination "BC = 0".

age -------- Tx -------- BC ---------- BC >= 1 ----------- BC = 0 wks to 0

12-15 ----- 35% ----- 23% -------- 2,566 (+190) ------- 8,739 2.2% 46
16-49 ----- 54% ----- 45% ------- 61,633 (+912) ----- 74,109 1.2% 81
50-64 ----- 73% ----- 72% ------- 20,441 (+212) ------- 8,047 2.6% 38
65-79 ----- 87% ----- 89% ------- 14,928 (+63) --------- 1,772 3.6% 28
80++ ------ 78% ----- 94% -------- 4,626 (+14) ------------ 279 5.0% 20

50++ ------ 78% ----- 80% ------- 39,995 (+289) ----- 10,098 35
12++ ------ 62% ----- 53% ------ 104,194 (+1391) ---- 92,946 67
All --------- 51% ----- 45% ------ 104,194 (+1391) --- 126,595 91

And I agree with the poster that said the numbers for the 16 to 49 vaccine count is suspect. If a student is vaccinated and doesn't identify as a Brazos County resident, they won't get counted. They used our driver's license when we got vaccines. That doesn't change for most people when they go to college.

As a side conversation, this county obviously has population count issues that are unique. When I was creating a spreadsheet using state population estimates for 2019, I believe there is a large undercount of actual students (i.e. "where you sleep"). Anyway, it would be good to have 18-24 year old count of vaccines, but the state doesn't do that on a daily / weekly basis.

But as others have said, I do expect counts to go up when, "the boys get back in town".

PS: And the 70% vaccinated, is a pipe dream for the foreseeable future, unless the the student numbers are really, really way off. Younger people in general, along with those that don't trust the vaccine at this time, will make that number unattainable.

PPSS: After seeing the 52% fully vaccinated comment in the KBTX article, I agree it is not what I am seeing. Fully vaccinated is more like 46% even by my numbers. My theory has been that if you get a person to get one shot, that most all of those will get the second dose (if required). I realize that there are some that don't (I have a cousin that didn't get the second shot), but I was using a forward looking number (at least one shot) trying to predict the future.

I have been wanting to make comments on the accuracy / validity of the data and I just used this post to express my concerns. But again, your comment on the 52% fully vaccinated is not what I am seeing either. My mistake for initially not reading your post correctly.

3rd edit!!!!

Ok, I watched the video. Sullivan said "vaccinated" he did not say "fully vaccinated".

KBTX said:
Quote:

So far, 52 percent of everyone eligible for the vaccine in Brazos County is fully vaccinated, according to Sullivan, but he emphasized the need for more of the community to get vaccinated.

So the devil is in the details. Does vaccinated vs fully vaccinated make a big difference in the big picture? Probably not, but it is confusing.
isitjustme
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isitjustme said:

Week of 7/5: 73 cases, 1,579 tests, 4.6%PCR
Week of 7/12: 113 cases, 2,009 tests, 6.1%
Week of 7/19: 204 cases, 3,745 tests, 5.5%
Week of 7/26: 275 cases, 4,673 tests, 5.9%
Cases are up, so are tests. What this may indicate is that in the post-vax era, at any point in time, about 5-6% of people who get tested may have the rona. Regardless of how many are tested. (I know, there's a lag so some of the results of this week's tests won't be reported until next week.) 4 reported deaths in July.

Is that an acceptable PCR rate? Way down from the peak periods of over 12%. These are things for us to consider - probably on different threads, though.
oldag00
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It seems testing is up due to a spike in local illnesses with similar symptoms.

My son has had 3 Covid, 2 strep, an RSV, and a mono test all in the past 2 weeks as he can't seem to shake a respiratory/congestion illness. Every provider we've seen has commented on the wave of patients they're seeing with same.
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trouble
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I wonder what their rate of vaccination is.
FlyRod
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If I'm reading the story Slocum posted right, only 4 of the 133 vaccinated who were infected were hospitalized and two had underlying conditions? That's pretty good.

That story had a nice measured tone to it as well. Thanks for linking to it.
Belton Ag
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trouble said:

I wonder what their rate of vaccination is.


Exactly, if the pool of people is mostly vaccinated then logically most of the infections will be in vaccinated people.

What would be really helpful is to know how what infection rate among those people compared with a similar population with a lower vaccination rate, and how many of the people in that town were hospitalized compared to the lower vaccination rate population.
techno-ag
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oldag00 said:

It seems testing is up due to a spike in local illnesses with similar symptoms.

My son has had 3 Covid, 2 strep, an RSV, and a mono test all in the past 2 weeks as he can't seem to shake a respiratory/congestion illness. Every provider we've seen has commented on the wave of patients they're seeing with same.
T&P. RSV has been particularly bad lately.
Climate change is natural.
MiMi
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No weekend BCHD updates

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 104,472 (+246) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/30/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 90,082 (+126). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.46% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 77 (+8); 13.07% of total hospital capacity as of 7/29/21.
MiMi
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No weekend BCHD updates

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 104,746 (+274) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 7/31/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 90,227 (+145). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.54% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 85 (+8); 14.68% of total hospital capacity as of 7/30/21.
Loaded
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For reference, one year ago today the Region N hospitalizations were 70 and falling.


Bucketrunner
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RSV?
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MiMi
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Today's numbers: 42 new confirmed cases, 14 probable cases, 1,957 tests, 0 deaths, 40 (+9) Brazos County residents hospitalized.

Current Brazos County vaccination numbers: 105,028 (+282) people vaccinated with at least one dose as of 8/1/21. The number of fully vaccinated people is now 90,363 (+135). According to the state's vaccination dashboard, 45.6% of Brazos County residents (12 yrs and older) are now fully vaccinated.

Total COVID hospitalizations in Region N: 91 (+6); 16.61% of total hospital capacity as of 7/31/21.
Sarvab
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something looks a little weird with the BCHD data. They are reporting zero recovered today, along with zero deaths. Two weeks ago would be 7/19/21 and on that day there were 32 new cases. Would expect some/most of those to be considered recovered by now if they haven't died.
toolshed
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I know of one that passed over the weekend, but with the lag in time from death through the system to reported it may take a couple days to show up.

Sarvab
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interesting. can you share about when they were diagnosed and rough/approximate age?
toolshed
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I don't know their info or them personally and don't feel right sharing. Friends of friends. Their story was on KBTX a couple weeks back.
Nosmo
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State reporting 264 total deaths per spreadsheet posted 8/01/21 for data as of 7/31 9:30AM.

Dates below are date of death (per death certificate):

JAN = 58

FEB = 24

MAR = 18 (actual date of death 3/31---1 added to state spreadsheet 06/16)

APR = 11
04-01-2021 #243 (added to state spreadsheet 07/19)
04-02-2021 #244
04-03-2021 #245
04-09-2021 #246
04-11-2021 #247
04-15-2021 #248
04-17-2021 #249
04-20-2021 #250
04-21-2021 #251
04-22-2021 #252 (added to state spreadsheet 05/16)
04-24-2021 #253

MAY = 5
05-16-2021 #254 (added to state spreadsheet 5/23)
05-22-2021 #255 (added to state spreadsheet 6/05)
05-28-2021 #256 (added to state spreadsheet 6/05)
05-30-2021 #257 (added to state spreadsheet 6/11)
05-31-2021 #258 (added to state spreadsheet 6/11)

JUN = 3
6-12-2021 #259 (added to state spreadsheet 6/29)
6-16-2021 #260 (added to state spreadsheet 6/21)
6-21-2021 #261 (added to state spreadsheet 6/25)

JUL = 3
7-08-2021 #262 (added to state spreadsheet 7/13)
7-18-2021 #263 (added to state spreadsheet 7/31)
7-21-2021 #264 (added to state spreadsheet 7/27)

County showing 265 vs State 264.
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EBrazosAg
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You can't trust any numbers on Covid at a granular level. They are all near worthless other than big picture level. It's amazing that we can't (or won't) do better.
cavscout96
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EBrazosAg said:

You can't trust any numbers on Covid at a granular level. They are all near worthless other than big picture level. It's amazing borderline criminal that we can't (or won't) do better.

FIFY
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trouble
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EBrazosAg said:

You can't trust any numbers on Covid at a granular level. They are all near worthless other than big picture level. It's amazing that we can't (or won't) do better.
At this point, hospital numbers are all I care about.
EBrazosAg
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I don't think you can trust hospital or deaths. In fact I'm certain you can't.
FlyRod
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For those of us who like to play with data I'm glad they're releasing what they are, but wish they'd release even moremore category breakdowns, etc.

I totally understand focusing on this or that particular metric for personal reasons though.
 
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