Ogre09 said:
Will Hunt said:
The Shank Ag said:
Additional post to add the most frustrating hand I ever pulled a few years ago at the beach
Couldn't even bid 30, if guy to my left sees I call 5s without the double, he's either playing the double or dropping count.
That's why you go count fishing with hands you have 3 or more highest dominoes in other hands. Set the precedent to make them think about it. I.e, lead with 4:5 when you have 4:4 and 4:6.
I would go 31 on that hand and assume I'm losing the 5/5. If one opponent has the 5/5 and the other has more count, you're set. I have a 1/3 shot that my partner has the 5/5. And I have a ~1/3 [(2/3)^3] shot the opponent without 5/5 doesn't have count. Combined probability is >50% I only lose 11 on the first round. Trump back in and lay down.
If I'm not the dealer, there's a good shot someone will outbid me and I just helped raise the bid. If I am the dealer, I have to bid anyway so may as well see if I can hit 30 with it. Bid aggressively and hope your partner can help out.
This was in 2018, and the only thing I can say for sure was if I was the dealer, it was not forced on me.
I also remember, after asking to reclaim my dominos after the hand was played, that my partner did NOT have the double. No clue anymore which of the opponents did. Though again, I feel it would have been all for naught whichever did.
One of them had the 5-5
That means there were 3 other counting dominos that were dispersed among the three players. The chances of the opposite partner not having 1 of the 6-4, 4-1, or 3-2 seems pretty small. My statistics classes were closing in on 15 years ago but i'm guessing the odds of the opponent that doesn't have the 5-5 also has one of those three is higher than 50%.
Had I been down 6 games to 3 or less, I might had considered the 84 bid on even worse odds, as a hail mary of sorts. But I believe we were up in the match, and just wasn't worth those odds.
