Tesla is inching towards Full Self Driving and Ultimately Robotaxis
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Last: 2 yr ago by bco2003
They aren't the only ones: https://www.getcruise.com/
I just don't get how it can possibly work. They don't have any cameras at the front of the car that can see to the left or right. This video shows it quite well.
Heck I just finished driving back from Wyoming in a model x and couldn't tell you how many times the car randomly would slam on the brakes, scaring the crap out of myself and everyone in the car. I don't get why they insist on doing more when they have issues with what they allow today.
Heck I just finished driving back from Wyoming in a model x and couldn't tell you how many times the car randomly would slam on the brakes, scaring the crap out of myself and everyone in the car. I don't get why they insist on doing more when they have issues with what they allow today.
The iPhone is the greatest leap in technology of my lifetime.
It was like going from horse-drawn wagons to the railroad.
Sail to steam.
Straight trucks to semis.
I don't see self driving cars going mainstream.
I can't visualize how that would work.
It will be a novelty.
Available in some cities.
I think we may see self driving trucks on long haul interstate routes.
I cant imagine any of this could be done without government backing.
The thing with the iPhone is that nobody had to sell the idea. It sold itself.
EVs don't feel like that for some reason.
The whole industry seems really forced.
People are trying way too to hard to sell he idea of EVs,
If EVs solved an actual problem and saved people money, people would buy them.
EVs seem like a fashion statement more than a product that you buy because it works.
I don't see EVs changing the way we live.
It might be cool to ride in a self driving airport shuttle.
But really your life hasn't changed much.
You are still doing the same stuff.
That said,
EVs seem like the future whether we like it or not.
It was like going from horse-drawn wagons to the railroad.
Sail to steam.
Straight trucks to semis.
I don't see self driving cars going mainstream.
I can't visualize how that would work.
It will be a novelty.
Available in some cities.
I think we may see self driving trucks on long haul interstate routes.
I cant imagine any of this could be done without government backing.
The thing with the iPhone is that nobody had to sell the idea. It sold itself.
EVs don't feel like that for some reason.
The whole industry seems really forced.
People are trying way too to hard to sell he idea of EVs,
If EVs solved an actual problem and saved people money, people would buy them.
EVs seem like a fashion statement more than a product that you buy because it works.
I don't see EVs changing the way we live.
It might be cool to ride in a self driving airport shuttle.
But really your life hasn't changed much.
You are still doing the same stuff.
That said,
EVs seem like the future whether we like it or not.
A car you need a swimming pool for to put out a fire? Nope.
I think there's still one or two more breakthroughs out there in battery or charging capabilities before EVs go mainstream. But it will happen.
Self driving cars will absolutely change everything. You mentioned trucking industry, imagine trucks driving 24/7 no breaks for the driver, only stopping to charge or refuel. Self driving cars has always been Uber's ultimate goal. Imagine a fleet of self driving cars that the city or you pay into as a service that completely replaces taxis and Ubers in cities. Drunk driving would practically disappear. Road trips would consist of setting the destination and relaxing back to nap or watch a movie with the family. It may take a generation of kids growing up and asking "Why do I need to learn to drive?" before it becomes ubiquitous. It's weird to think but my grandkids will probably never learn to drive. I have no idea how to drive a horse drawn carriage. Some ancestor of mine probably thinks that's ridiculous.
They claim to now (somewhat dubiously) and someday definitely may help solve climate change. Solving that problem is something that younger generations are very interested in even if you aren't.Quote:
If EVs solved an actual problem and saved people money, people would buy them.
Self driving cars will absolutely change everything. You mentioned trucking industry, imagine trucks driving 24/7 no breaks for the driver, only stopping to charge or refuel. Self driving cars has always been Uber's ultimate goal. Imagine a fleet of self driving cars that the city or you pay into as a service that completely replaces taxis and Ubers in cities. Drunk driving would practically disappear. Road trips would consist of setting the destination and relaxing back to nap or watch a movie with the family. It may take a generation of kids growing up and asking "Why do I need to learn to drive?" before it becomes ubiquitous. It's weird to think but my grandkids will probably never learn to drive. I have no idea how to drive a horse drawn carriage. Some ancestor of mine probably thinks that's ridiculous.
You also mentioned iPhone. What do you think the upper age limit is on the ubiquitousness of iPhones? 70? 80? I'd guess most people over the age of 80 has never used or owned an iPhone. The first iPhone was announced in 2007, so those 80 year olds were 66 at the time. I'm sure plenty of 50-60 years olds said in 2007 "I don't see this iPhone thing catching on" and they were right for themselves. But they were wrong for everyone younger than them.
Hell, that's happening now in larger cities. I know people who are actually trying to convince their kids to get DLs and the kid has no interest because they live fully in virtual reality.Quad Dog said:
I think there's still one or two more breakthroughs out there in battery or charging capabilities before EVs go mainstream. But it will happen.They claim to now (somewhat dubiously) and someday definitely may help solve climate change. Solving that problem is something that younger generations are very interested in even if you aren't.Quote:
If EVs solved an actual problem and saved people money, people would buy them.
Self driving cars will absolutely change everything. You mentioned trucking industry, imagine trucks driving 24/7 no breaks for the driver, only stopping to charge or refuel. Self driving cars has always been Uber's ultimate goal. Imagine a fleet of self driving cars that the city or you pay into as a service that completely replaces taxis and Ubers in cities. Drunk driving would practically disappear. Road trips would consist of setting the destination and relaxing back to nap or watch a movie with the family. It may take a generation of kids growing up and asking "Why do I need to learn to drive?" before it becomes ubiquitous. It's weird to think but my grandkids will probably never learn to drive. I have no idea how to drive a horse drawn carriage. Some ancestor of mine probably thinks that's ridiculous.
Edit: we also need a major grid update and upscale in energy production if we are going full on EV in this country.
Agree, but going back to iPhones as the precedent similar problems existed for cell networks and and batteries back then too.Quote:
we also need a major grid update and upscale in energy production if we are going full on EV in this country.
Yeah, I'm skeptical of EV not because of the tech but because most of the evangelists completely ignore the infrastructure and energy production we need to support it. And when faced with that question all I hear is: "Meh, we'll figure it out."Quad Dog said:Agree, but going back to iPhones as the precedent similar problems existed for cell networks and and batteries back then too.Quote:
we also need a major grid update and upscale in energy production if we are going full on EV in this country.
When? How? No one is addressing those questions right now IRL.
It's an interesting question on if demand will create infrastructure, or if infrastructure will create demand. There are examples of it happening both ways in the past.
The current problem is that the only allowable infrastructure is solar and wind which won't cut it. Going to be awkward when stuff continues to fail more often and everyone is confused as to why.Quad Dog said:
It's an interesting question on if demand will create infrastructure, or if infrastructure will create demand. There are examples of it happening both ways in the past.
I'm derailing though I guess so I'll move on.
I'm not going EV unless it has a physical keyboard.
The biggest question I think self driving EV and other forms of automation will create is employment.
How many people have jobs in the taxi, food delivery, uber as well as fast food realm?
When you replace those people with robotics/automation, what do they do? Just add to unemployment? When you can automate the work of 5 McDonalds employees with one system... now multiply that nationwide.
We all heard from our fathers when we weren't reaching our potential - "the world needs ditch diggers".
What happens when DitchDigger2000 hits the market at a cost that the world doesn't actually need ditch diggers anymore?
How many people have jobs in the taxi, food delivery, uber as well as fast food realm?
When you replace those people with robotics/automation, what do they do? Just add to unemployment? When you can automate the work of 5 McDonalds employees with one system... now multiply that nationwide.
We all heard from our fathers when we weren't reaching our potential - "the world needs ditch diggers".
What happens when DitchDigger2000 hits the market at a cost that the world doesn't actually need ditch diggers anymore?
The same thing that happened to vacuum tube technicians, the VHS industry, Knocker-Uppers, whaling industry, or any number of other jobs that were replaced by advancements. They have to adapt to other industries or create support jobs of the new one. Probably eventually some form of UBI.
Quad Dog said:
The same thing that happened to vacuum tube technicians, the VHS industry, Knocker-Uppers, whaling industry, or any number of other jobs that were replaced by advancements. They have to adapt to other industries or create support jobs of the new one. Probably eventually some form of UBI.
Except tube techs, VHS industry, etc... didn't make up such a large segment of our workforce.
I think its a loose generational boundary with a socioeconomic component layered in.Quad Dog said:
You also mentioned iPhone. What do you think the upper age limit is on the ubiquitousness of iPhones? 70? 80? I'd guess most people over the age of 80 has never used or owned an iPhone. The first iPhone was announced in 2007, so those 80 year olds were 66 at the time. I'm sure plenty of 50-60 years olds said in 2007 "I don't see this iPhone thing catching on" and they were right for themselves. But they were wrong for everyone younger than them.
When the iPhone came out I was working in an office with people 15-20 years older than me.
They all had their blackberries and thought they were the greatest thing ever (and they were at the time).
They loled when I came in with the iPhone 1.
To them it was like a kids toy and not for serious business use.
Less than three years later they all had iPhones.
I grew up with computers. Commodore, Intellivision, Apple IIc, later IBM to the earliest versions of Windows.
I was on the internet sometime around 1984 / 1985 (Compuserve).
Its fair to say I've never known a world without computers or some iteration of the internet.
This is 100% because of where and when I was born and my socioeconomic status.
My grandparents grew up in the depression era.
Any type of electronics gave them problems.
I could never understand why old people struggled with buttons so much.
They could never grasp the concept of quickly tapping and releasing a button on a remote / controller or whatever.
They would always hold the button down.
Back on point I'd say Gen Xers are probably have more of an understanding of technology generally because we grew up with it.
We went from rotary phones and baud rate dial up modems to the Iphone to unlimited information and HD screens in our pocket in less than 40 years.
No single thing changed how we live day to day in 2021 more than the smartphone.
My point was more that a 50-60 year old missing the iPhone in 2007 could be the same as a 50-60 year old missing EV or driverless now. I've heard from a decent amount of teens that they don't want to drive for various reasons from the environmental impacts to preferring a digital lifestyle. You or I may not understand that mindset, but it's foolish to deny it exists.
. Because for that there was huge incentive$ for those to get better.Quad Dog said:Agree, but going back to iPhones as the precedent similar problems existed for cell networks and and batteries back then too.Quote:
we also need a major grid update and upscale in energy production if we are going full on EV in this country.
EVs do offer advantages over IC engines for sure regarding maintenance, cost to own, etc. But charging times is going to limit their rollout until that gets better.
However, anyone claiming EVs will solve " climate change" is being willfully and ignorant. They don't pollute the way IC engines do, but they do in fact add pollution to the atmosphere. Just at the front and back end instead of all in the middle.
Thats true.
Most teens in 2021 are walking around with a $1000+ phone in their pocket from middle school age
I can really see where some teens would rather have a mobile device than a car.
What is the real difference between a driverless EV car and an Uber?
I don't see a difference in functionality.
Is the trend that teens want to spend car money on something else, or are they really not that interested in driving?
This is the mentality in most of Europe. People generally don't really care that much about having a car.
We might be seeing that trend.
Most teens in 2021 are walking around with a $1000+ phone in their pocket from middle school age
I can really see where some teens would rather have a mobile device than a car.
What is the real difference between a driverless EV car and an Uber?
I don't see a difference in functionality.
Is the trend that teens want to spend car money on something else, or are they really not that interested in driving?
This is the mentality in most of Europe. People generally don't really care that much about having a car.
We might be seeing that trend.
That's where I'm at as well.
I've been observing the progress of technology my entire life.
On EVs, I feel like the technology is just not there yet, and won't be until one or two more technological breakthroughs.
Not to say that we shouldn't innovate, but the tech just isn't there yet.
I still say its a novelty at this stage.
I've been observing the progress of technology my entire life.
On EVs, I feel like the technology is just not there yet, and won't be until one or two more technological breakthroughs.
Not to say that we shouldn't innovate, but the tech just isn't there yet.
I still say its a novelty at this stage.
I agree with the issues y'all are bringing up, but I do think they are problems that will be solved someday soon. Surely similar stuff was said about Fossil Fuels on Nantucket in the 1890s.
That'll be a no from me, Dawg.
I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
Quad Dog said:
It's an interesting question on if demand will create infrastructure, or if infrastructure will create demand. There are examples of it happening both ways in the past.
The problem here is that it ignores a variable. Government.
Electric vehicles aren't being pumped out because of demand - they are being pumped out because of regulation from non-elected government bureaucrats. The demand will only take over because a) subsidies exist, and b) IC engines are being phased out, which will leave no other choice. Then the government can claim infrastructure didn't keep up with the demand they created and spend more money to fix the problem that they created.
I'm all for electric vehicles or an alternative fuel as the future. I just think the market should be driving it rather than the government and that the climate change rationale is absurd. The fact is that the market isn't pushing this shift, and we will face a ton of problems as a result.
I think self-parking should be in place, already.
Dedicated lanes, and a garage which doesn't permit humans above floor X, could solve quite a few issues, and the technology is there, for that.
(Eliminating "convenient" parking makes for nicer designs, IMO)
Similarly, I think eliminating long-haul trucking, either by dedicated lanes, or using some kind of rail, is something which could be done now.
Dedicated lanes, and a garage which doesn't permit humans above floor X, could solve quite a few issues, and the technology is there, for that.
(Eliminating "convenient" parking makes for nicer designs, IMO)
Similarly, I think eliminating long-haul trucking, either by dedicated lanes, or using some kind of rail, is something which could be done now.
Yep and while they figure that out there will be massive, negative disruption to society.BQRyno said:Quad Dog said:
It's an interesting question on if demand will create infrastructure, or if infrastructure will create demand. There are examples of it happening both ways in the past.
The problem here is that it ignores a variable. Government.
Electric vehicles aren't being pumped out because of demand - they are being pumped out because of regulation from non-elected government bureaucrats. The demand will only take over because a) subsidies exist, and b) IC engines are being phased out, which will leave no other choice. Then the government can claim infrastructure didn't keep up with the demand they created and spend more money to fix the problem that they created.
I'm all for electric vehicles or an alternative fuel as the future. I just think the market should be driving it rather than the government and that the climate change rationale is absurd. The fact is that the market isn't pushing this shift, and we will face a ton of problems as a result.
Disagree there, the real greatest technology advance in our lives technology is by far the internet. All the iphone really did and does to this day is allow you to have the power of the internet on the go.Stat Monitor Repairman said:
The iPhone is the greatest leap in technology of my lifetime.
What I do credit apple for is creating a few tech advances in touchscreen input and things like that which allowed the internet experience on the go to be viable. That is how I see FSD now, the first time I test drove a tesla and turned it on I got that same feeling as when I first tried a modern touchscreen phone. You can just feel it's something different and I credit tesla's FSD and to a lesser extent their EV's in general in pushing the world forward in a similar way.
Pretty much every new car now comes with some kind of self driving capability (most are very rudimentary compared to tesla's) and everybody is scrambling to get EV's out too. Much like how the industry reacted to the iphone. I personally don't see the robotaxi part of it taking over but self driving is a huge deal in improving driver safety for the masses.
I've seen enough of Musk's rockets crash and burn. No thanks. Computers can't predict well human factors while driving. See Sully.
My aunts are in their 80s and they, along with my mom who's in her early 70s, are on them just as much as any 15 year old is. Especially Facebook, that's like crack for boomers.Quad Dog said:
You also mentioned iPhone. What do you think the upper age limit is on the ubiquitousness of iPhones? 70? 80? I'd guess most people over the age of 80 has never used or owned an iPhone. The first iPhone was announced in 2007, so those 80 year olds were 66 at the time. I'm sure plenty of 50-60 years olds said in 2007 "I don't see this iPhone thing catching on" and they were right for themselves. But they were wrong for everyone younger than them.
I look at the internet as slowly developing over 20 years or so.
I think it went mainstream probably around 1996 / 1997.
When the iPhone hit, life changed drastically in just a few years.
I remember it took about 3 years or so and everybody I knew had smart phones.
Iphone had an release date and it was off to the races.
The internet sort of trickled into existence.
I think it went mainstream probably around 1996 / 1997.
When the iPhone hit, life changed drastically in just a few years.
I remember it took about 3 years or so and everybody I knew had smart phones.
Iphone had an release date and it was off to the races.
The internet sort of trickled into existence.
Self-driving cars will require their own isolated roads. Much like what is depicted in the Minority Report. That's the only way I can see them being feasible.
Original iphone didn't do a whole lot that other phones couldn't already do - it just made it "sexy" for the teenage consumer.
It wasn't until a year or so later with 3G that you really started seeing the significant upgrades that would become mainstays in daily mobile life (app store, gps navigation).
It wasn't until a year or so later with 3G that you really started seeing the significant upgrades that would become mainstays in daily mobile life (app store, gps navigation).
Agreed, smartphones were out long before apple came out with theirs and it was about a "maturing" of technology over decades that really changed the way we live. But to me there is no doubt that nothing has changed the world more than the internet.
Same thing with EV's and self driving, we are still in the infancy of the technology and it will either become as important as the internet or smartphone or will be the next 3dtv or other failed technology. I tend to think its the former with every automaker working on EV's and FSD but time will tell.
Same thing with EV's and self driving, we are still in the infancy of the technology and it will either become as important as the internet or smartphone or will be the next 3dtv or other failed technology. I tend to think its the former with every automaker working on EV's and FSD but time will tell.
Here's a better question: why does a self driving car HAVE to be an EV?
It doesn't and isn't. Take a look at Cadillac Super Cruise for example.XXXVII said:
Here's a better question: why does a self driving car HAVE to be an EV?
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