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How does a Biden Presidency affect the oil and gas industry?

2,463 Views | 17 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Bluehazel
GoodAg20
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Thoughts?
Romello
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Now you ask?
BrazosDog02
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AG
If you are STILL in oil and gas at this point, I would expect one to have tougher skin and very low risk aversion.

Biden is going to do nothing for oil and gas. It will get worse or stay about how it is...flat. I do not expect it to get better.
valtosca
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AG
San Antonio just passed a job training prop/tax... guess I'll learn to code for free
Remember The Astrodome
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AG
Why do you ask? Are you looking to get in the field? Politics aside, it is a rough time and will be for the foreseeable future. I personally don't see Biden changing this outlook all that much.
Romello
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You either take the man at his word which was that he would end fracking or you don't. Take that for what it's worth and your O&G experience will likely depend on it.
Bluehazel
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AG
It's impossible to broadly ban fracking. Maybe he can pull it off on public lands. So if you are tied to work in New Mexico I would be concerned. Given congress will likely be divided, he will be limited to putting back into place Obama's executive orders. One of these is requiring carbon capture technology at coal plants. If anything that would help natural gas as coal acts as a ceiling on gas prices. It will likely be more difficult to get pipelines approved, so if you are counting on that probably not good. But if you are in a position with good pipeline capacity you are probably fine.
LostInLA07
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AG
It's going to be very positive for the IOCs with large international operations and OPEC+ countries. They thrive when short cycle domestic production is limited and long cycle capital intensive projects are the only way to maintain / grow supply.

Companies focused on domestic onshore production will be regulated out of business (aka phased out.)
Tormentos
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AG
If you are at a company/division that is purely focused on US onshore then I would have concerns. I think Biden presidency will be good for international IOC and companies focused on other international basins. If we see increased regs in the US making it more difficult for domestic US production its just going to further limit supply and new investment and eventually lead to higher commodity pricing.
one MEEN Ag
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AG
Insulting that you're just now asking this when you know the answer.

First order problems:
-Job loss as federal lands become off limits to fracking (and there is a ton of oil/gas in New Mexico on federal land)
-Power plants go under with increased regulation and mandated to implement crappy 'carbon capture' technology that isn't ready for scale.

Second order problems:
-Energy prices rise, kicking off inflation throughout the globe. Travel, food, heating, electricity prices, manufacturing all suffer. More job loss to make organizations bottom lines work
-Reduced taxes for states benefiting from oil/gas federal lands
-Exacerbated rolling brown outs in california as they don't understand their peakyness of their grid, the volatility of removing baseline production from the grid

Third order problems:
-Media points to increased inflation/energy prices as a reason to pass legislation like the green new deal. Where we roll out more renewables without any regards to the grid, jobs, american global trade negotiations.
-China exerts monopoly over rare earth metals that are now replacing oil/gas in the transportation sector.
-America can't keep the pressure up on Uighur humanitarian crises and IP theft because China owns everything (see what China is doing to australia with blocking coal imports since they dared speak out)
-America rejoins the Paris accords and hands over US tax dollars to third world countries who wont do a damn thing to address climate change.

Since it seems like you voted for Biden, GFY.
Remember The Astrodome
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AG
one MEEN Ag said:

Insulting that you're just now asking this when you know the answer.

First order problems:
-Job loss as federal lands become off limits to fracking (and there is a ton of oil/gas in New Mexico on federal land)
-Power plants go under with increased regulation and mandated to implement crappy 'carbon capture' technology that isn't ready for scale.

Second order problems:
-Energy prices rise, kicking off inflation throughout the globe. Travel, food, heating, electricity prices, manufacturing all suffer. More job loss to make organizations bottom lines work
-Reduced taxes for states benefiting from oil/gas federal lands
-Exacerbated rolling brown outs in california as they don't understand their peakyness of their grid, the volatility of removing baseline production from the grid

Third order problems:
-Media points to increased inflation/energy prices as a reason to pass legislation like the green new deal. Where we roll out more renewables without any regards to the grid, jobs, american global trade negotiations.
-China exerts monopoly over rare earth metals that are now replacing oil/gas in the transportation sector.
-America can't keep the pressure up on Uighur humanitarian crises and IP theft because China owns everything (see what China is doing to australia with blocking coal imports since they dared speak out)
-America rejoins the Paris accords and hands over US tax dollars to third world countries who wont do a damn thing to address climate change.

Since it seems like you voted for Biden, GFY.

Your main source of info is forum 16?
ElephantRider
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AG
one MEEN Ag said:

Insulting that you're just now asking this when you know the answer.

First order problems:
-Job loss as federal lands become off limits to fracking (and there is a ton of oil/gas in New Mexico on federal land)
-Power plants go under with increased regulation and mandated to implement crappy 'carbon capture' technology that isn't ready for scale.

Second order problems:
-Energy prices rise, kicking off inflation throughout the globe. Travel, food, heating, electricity prices, manufacturing all suffer. More job loss to make organizations bottom lines work
-Reduced taxes for states benefiting from oil/gas federal lands
-Exacerbated rolling brown outs in california as they don't understand their peakyness of their grid, the volatility of removing baseline production from the grid

Third order problems:
-Media points to increased inflation/energy prices as a reason to pass legislation like the green new deal. Where we roll out more renewables without any regards to the grid, jobs, american global trade negotiations.
-China exerts monopoly over rare earth metals that are now replacing oil/gas in the transportation sector.
-America can't keep the pressure up on Uighur humanitarian crises and IP theft because China owns everything (see what China is doing to australia with blocking coal imports since they dared speak out)
-America rejoins the Paris accords and hands over US tax dollars to third world countries who wont do a damn thing to address climate change.

Since it seems like you voted for Biden, GFY.

Classy
one MEEN Ag
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AG
He wanted a detailed explanation. I gave one. Do you want discuss any of the merits of the points I raised or just do more driveby ****posting?

A Biden presidency will enact executive orders that will shift production of oil/gas away from the united states, and will see prices rise.

Increased commodity prices will be passed along to the consumer - this is called a form of inflation.

America will become more dependent on international state oil companies in the short term (limiting our geopolitical arsenal)

In the long term, high energy costs shift people towards cheaper alternatives that require batteries for energy storage.

China does a huge amount of rare earth mining for the world. The world will have to kotow to their demands to get access to their minerals.

America, again, is geopolitically limited in going after things like IP theft and humans rights abuses if they shut off access to rare earth metals.


You mind sharing what liberal arts degree you got so I know if I've got to dumb this down any further for you.
one MEEN Ag
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AG
Trolling sock account made last week wants to ask obvious questions about OG after the fact.

You can join em.
Remember The Astrodome
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AG
one MEEN Ag said:

Trolling sock account made last week wants to ask obvious questions about OG after the fact.

You can join em.
No worries. Get yourself worked up over what ifs. I will continue to make a great living in the O&G field that was supposed to collapse under Obama and now under Biden.
one MEEN Ag
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AG
Did I say it would collapse? Reread what I wrote, commodity prices will go up. Biden is going to choke US based supply. That will cost US jobs, while also having the american people pay more for everything. My post tracks the fallout of increased commodity prices.

I'm in OG too. Oil at both $20 and $120 is unsustainable.
La Bamba
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AG
One MEEN Ag absolutely nailed it. Hard to argue with any of those points.

I work for one of the IOCs. Blessed that I transitioned to an overseas assignment as we are gutting the North American land divisions.

The world will demand cheap energy once the Covid scare ends. The majority of demand growth isn't coming from USA nor Europe and those needs won't care about renewable energy. All we are doing in the US with Biden is shifting the supply from ME/Russia/US to the Middle East and Russia exclusively.
GoodAg20
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Sorry for the late response. I did not, in fact, vote for Biden. I voted for our great President and did so in 2016 as well. I am new to TexAgs and the current state of the election had me worried considering that I have accepted an offer into the oil and gas industry, so I thought coming to TexAgs would help me gather some info.

ALL of your points are valid and are among all of my concerns. I don't appreciate the jump to the conclusion that I voted for Biden, but I can understand that my post, and my account being a new one, probably came off that way. I had just remembered people discussing that under Obama there was not real impact to the industry.

My question was more geared toward, okay now it looks like we are going to have Biden presidency, what's next? I should have added more and probably clarified my position. The best we can hope for now is that the fraud is exposed and there's a monumental swing in the President's direction.
Bluehazel
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AG
The answer is a bit more nuanced than, it's all bad...Guess what, if there is less drilling on federal land, there will be more drilling in other places if demand is the same. That would mean companies with assets not on federal land would benefit.

Also, how does Biden attack coal? We still have a massive amount of coal production, and it is the most carbon intensive hydrocarbon. I work in oil and gas in Houston and I don't give a f about coal. Less coal demand = more natural gas / renewable demand, and yes probably means higher electricity prices.

My personal view is natural gas still has a lot of running room.

I would be a bit more weary on oil prices over the long-term, especially if Biden eases tensions with Iran, which is likely.

I believe the intension of this post was to put political views aside and actually think about this objectively, and not turn this into a "Stop the Steal" forum. There's plenty of that on the politics board.
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