texagbeliever said:

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Just curious rank in terms of liberalness:

Trump
McCain (remember he prevented Obamacare being repealed)
Romney (father of Obamacare essentially)
George HW Bush (TSA, Patriot Act, bailouts)

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Wrong Bush.

Oops, yes that is just W. Thanks.

So you admit I didn't bring DeSantis into the conversation like you claimed I did. It takes a big man to admit he is wrong and not ad hominem his way out of things.

texagbeliever said:

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BigBrother said:

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Sh****SLC said:

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ts5641 said:

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The modern mainstream media truly are the best propagandists of all time. They've told everyone from the get-go how Trump was unstoppable and that DeSantis' campaign was a disaster and he had no charisma. They helped fuel the MAGA fire and had MAGA numpties focusing more hate on DeSantis than on biden.
Now they're at the tail end of their self-fulfilling prophecy and will celebrate when DeSantis drops out knowing that a lamp could beat Trump in the General.

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DeSantis supporters mocking and name calling other republicans and independents for over a year certainly hasn't helped DeSantis and helped fuel the Maga fire too. Maga has turned into it us vs. the world attitude. With DeSantis supporters sounding like 2016 progressives, it's become a turn off.

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Translation: I didn't like having my hypocrisy pointed out to me repeatedly.

You know very well that Only-Trump MAGA gives at least as good as it gets. If you love the crudeness of Trump, that's fine, but then to whine about it when it goes the other way...

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Trump attacks other politicians and figure heads.
The Desantisites on this board, Biden, Obama, HRC, talking heads attack Trump supporters. They are dumb, rednecks, bible clinging, deplorable racists.

If you can't see the difference than that is on you.

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Ding! Ding! Ding!

Well said…

You aren't even allowed to have a balanced opinion of each candidate…if you speak about the reality of what's happening, and it's not a DeSantis love fest, you're immediately attacked by many…

It's been going on for a year+ now…

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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I think he hangs in until South Carolina and sees what happens. The longer he is staying in seems to be pulling Trump on some positions like CBDC so I'm all for it. Trump and Haley seem to barely be campaigning so why not? Some of the Desantis folks are encouraging him to go scorched Earth on Trump and I disagree with that, though he needs to point out policy differences.

Right now the hope is that Haley does poorly in NH and drops out and it may press Trump to make a VP decision. It's all longshot territory for sure but I don't think DeSantis is damaging himself by staying in and he is setting himself up to be the alternative if Trump is out for some reason (health being the biggest thing imo). He can always suspend if he wants, just no real rush.

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There's a better chance of Haley beating Trump in NH than there is of Haley doing poorly…

Don't think she beats Trump, but it's going to be tight…

DeSantis has zero shot in either NH or SC…

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Polls I've been watching show Haley fading. I think the key is if she can stay within 10. If not she is done. DeSantis has a lot of dedicated supporters but Haley relies on big donor money and the perception that she can compete with Trump. Maybe not though, we will see. I think if she loses by 10 or more she drops out fast before the bottom falls out in SC. If she stays closer than that she hangs around a bit. She has no real path to the nomination regardless so her entire point was to press to be VP or Sec of State.

Agree DeSantis can't win NH or SC but that's not what he needs to do. He's got a very, very narrow path or two but it's going to take some crazy happening. First he needs Haley to drop out and get this to a 2 person race. He also needs to get into double digits in NH and he's been creeping up there so it's possible. Then he needs to not get completely destroyed in SC and hopefully Haley is already out. Then he needs some bad break for Trump. To call it a longshot is generous.

I'm not sure of his true plan though. Certainly hanging around and seeing if Trump falters. He's still drawing crowds so he's not embarrassing himself. He could be trying to push Trump to the right. Could be trying to continue to build relationships. Maybe he is using it as leverage for something else prior to endorsing Trump. Don't know.

Anyway, barring a miracle this is all just theater. Trump certainly has all the advantages now.

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Not sure what particular poll has your interest, but the RCP average has been fairly conistent...

Haley isn't fading....she drifts between -15ish to -13ish compared to Trump, and it's been consistent since Christmas...



I think she is going to assume 2nd place in delegate count after NH, and then extend it after SC...

If I'm a donor, after a barely 2nd (and getting trounced for 1st), a 4th (well 3rd because Christie is now out, but DeSantis still polls in 4th), and another distat 3rd finish, I'm not donating money to DeSantis anymore...it's an absolute waste of resources... Not only will he finish 3rd or worse in the next two, but he is going to get absolutely stomped...there's just no sugarcoating it...

More power to him if he wants to hang around until Super Tuesday, but as the 2nd place momentum for Haley builds, he is just going to lose support in favor of her and/or folks seeing the writing on the wall and reluctantly gravitating back to Trump...

The margin of defeat in Iowa was quite devastating for DeSantis, and while it was only one point better than what Haley did (meaning it was devastating for her as well), she has a substantial lead on DeSantis in the next two... So Haley has momentum vs DeSantis, and it's not going away anytime soon...

DeSantis is welcome to stay in as long as he wants, but it's nothing more than a longshot, Hail Mary prayer hoping beyond hope that something happens to Trump to keep him from running...and even then, you are looking at going into the convention with both he and Haley neither having the support of the necessary number of delegates, and a brokered convention... And if he's 2nd to Haley in such a scenario, no chance in hell he's the nominee for P...it will be Haley, and DeSantis can determine whether or not he wants the VP spot at that point...

texagbeliever said:

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So you admit I didn't bring DeSantis into the conversation like you claimed I did. It takes a big man to admit he is wrong and not ad hominem his way out of things.

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I admit I am wrong on this site far more than most. I did there as well in that I got lost in all of your pretzel logic and you are focusing on the least relevant part of my post to find a misstatement. It shows you were caught in your pretzel of playing both sides of an argument and desperately looking for some way to have the last word and exit.

Tell you what though, you are correct that I missed that your response was responding to someone else. Congrats? Is that clear enough or should I grovel on the floor or something?

FireAg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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BigBrother said:

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ShaggySLC said:

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ts5641 said:

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The modern mainstream media truly are the best propagandists of all time. They've told everyone from the get-go how Trump was unstoppable and that DeSantis' campaign was a disaster and he had no charisma. They helped fuel the MAGA fire and had MAGA numpties focusing more hate on DeSantis than on biden.
Now they're at the tail end of their self-fulfilling prophecy and will celebrate when DeSantis drops out knowing that a lamp could beat Trump in the General.

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DeSantis supporters mocking and name calling other republicans and independents for over a year certainly hasn't helped DeSantis and helped fuel the Maga fire too. Maga has turned into it us vs. the world attitude. With DeSantis supporters sounding like 2016 progressives, it's become a turn off.

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Translation: I didn't like having my hypocrisy pointed out to me repeatedly.

You know very well that Only-Trump MAGA gives at least as good as it gets. If you love the crudeness of Trump, that's fine, but then to whine about it when it goes the other way...

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Trump attacks other politicians and figure heads.
The Desantisites on this board, Biden, Obama, HRC, talking heads attack Trump supporters. They are dumb, rednecks, bible clinging, deplorable racists.

If you can't see the difference than that is on you.

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Ding! Ding! Ding!

Well said…

You aren't even allowed to have a balanced opinion of each candidate…if you speak about the reality of what's happening, and it's not a DeSantis love fest, you're immediately attacked by many…

It's been going on for a year+ now…

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The problem with the argument is Trump supporters attack DeSantis supporters just as vigorously and there is no moral high ground on that topic. It's the internet. If you want to make this about who has the worst supporters you have to start with Stone and Loomer and then point to anyone who is even in their zip code from anyone else in the GOP.

DeSantis has also never attacked Trump personally even though he has been continuously baited. Most of Trump's attacks on DeSantis have been personal and rarely on policy.

The "DeSantis supporters are just SO terrible" argument is such a distraction and eye roll. Most of it is because Trump supporters want to talk about A)Polls or B)Heels or "charisma" or some personal attribute they make up or C)DeSantis should have waited, we needed to get behind Trump and he should have been loyal. After a while it gets old not actually talking about policy or what they actually will do if elected.

aggie93 said:

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I admit I am wrong on this site far more than most.

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Yet another way you're not Trumpian.

1) conservative
2) intelligent
3) not suffering from dementia
4) not a narcissist that can't admit fault
5) not a billionaire.

The number of DeSantis militants on this forum attacking anyone and everyone that doesn't drink the kool aid far outweighs Trump folks doing the same…

Folks like me can't even be in the middle using actual, empirical data to support arguments for why DeSantis was failing without being called derogatory names by the DeSantis militants…

It's pretty pathetic, honestly, and why I have about 13 posters in this forum on ignore…

FireAg said:

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The number of DeSantis militants on this forum attacking anyone and everyone that doesn't drink the kool aid far outweighs Trump folks doing the same…

Folks like me can't even be in the middle using actual, empirical data to support arguments for why DeSantis was failing without being called derogatory names by the DeSantis militants…

It's pretty pathetic, honestly, and why I have about 13 posters in this forum on ignore…

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

Case in point…adding one more…

infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Because, unlike Trump, he's in this to save America from the leftist policies of Biden and Trump and their currently deleterious effects.

BigRobSA said:

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infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Because, unlike Trump, he's in this to save America from the leftist policies of Biden and Trump and their currently deleterious effects.

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Well he's doing a piss poor job of making his case…

FireAg said:

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BigRobSA said:

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infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Because, unlike Trump, he's in this to save America from the leftist policies of Biden and Trump and their currently deleterious effects.

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Well he's doing a piss poor job of making his case…

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Not really. It is just hard to overcome the dip****tery of the American populace. They're more enamored by an orange-skinned, liberal, demented carnival barker than an actual policy boss.

What policy wins culture wars?

BigRobSA said:

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FireAg said:

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BigRobSA said:

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infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Because, unlike Trump, he's in this to save America from the leftist policies of Biden and Trump and their currently deleterious effects.

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Well he's doing a piss poor job of making his case…

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Not really. It is just hard to overcome the dip****tery of the American populace. They're more enamored by an orange-skinned, liberal, demented carnival barker than an actual policy boss.

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Then by definition, he is doing a piss poor job of reaching those people, and making his case…

It is the candidate's job to reach people…it is not the people's job to pay attention…

He isn't reaching enough people and inspiring them with his message…

Funky Winkerbean said:

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What policy wins culture wars?

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Ask Disney.

BigRobSA said:

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infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Because, unlike Trump, he's in this to save America from the leftist policies of Biden and Trump and their currently deleterious effects.

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Sure he is

FireAg said:

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BigRobSA said:

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FireAg said:

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BigRobSA said:

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infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Because, unlike Trump, he's in this to save America from the leftist policies of Biden and Trump and their currently deleterious effects.

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Well he's doing a piss poor job of making his case…

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Not really. It is just hard to overcome the dip****tery of the American populace. They're more enamored by an orange-skinned, liberal, demented carnival barker than an actual policy boss.

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Then by definition, he is doing a piss poor job of reaching those people, and making his case…

It is the candidate's job to reach people…it is not the people's job to pay attention…

He isn't reaching enough people and inspiring them with his message…

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Actually, it IS our job to pay attention to be informed as voters. But, I see what you're saying. It doesn't change my statement being true. Voters in this country, as a whole, are pretty ****ing dumb.

As evidence, see the last several Presidents, from both parties. The best "we" have to offer? LOLNope.

Voters ARE ABSOLUTELY DUMB…

I've been saying this from the beginning…and that's why I have been consistent with my message…

DeSantis didn't do enough to grab the attention of the masses…who, as you rightfully point out, are dumb…

You have to find a way to grab their attention…he didn't do so with his strategy or packaging of his messaging…

BigRobSA said:

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shiftyandquick said:

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El Gallo Blanco said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Sounds like the DeSantis camp is getting a small taste of MSM smears. Good practice in the future for how to deal with this.

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It's not MSM smears...it's completely ignoring him...while constantly shining the spotlight on Trump and only Trump. They want him to be the guy because it gives them the best chance at winning again. They are masters at deception and trickery. They are doing everything in their power to ensure Trump is the guy they get to run against.

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??? DeSantis purposefully avoided talking to the MSM and getting free coverage. It was his actual strategy. (Torbush!). Now he is publicly talking about how dumb that decision was.

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Dafuq you talking about? He was all over the MSM doing interviews.

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Not in the beginning when people wanted to see him. Once chi's epic fail campaign was way too far behind. He started acting like a candidate trying to win but it was too late.

FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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I think he hangs in until South Carolina and sees what happens. The longer he is staying in seems to be pulling Trump on some positions like CBDC so I'm all for it. Trump and Haley seem to barely be campaigning so why not? Some of the Desantis folks are encouraging him to go scorched Earth on Trump and I disagree with that, though he needs to point out policy differences.

Right now the hope is that Haley does poorly in NH and drops out and it may press Trump to make a VP decision. It's all longshot territory for sure but I don't think DeSantis is damaging himself by staying in and he is setting himself up to be the alternative if Trump is out for some reason (health being the biggest thing imo). He can always suspend if he wants, just no real rush.

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There's a better chance of Haley beating Trump in NH than there is of Haley doing poorly…

Don't think she beats Trump, but it's going to be tight…

DeSantis has zero shot in either NH or SC…

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Polls I've been watching show Haley fading. I think the key is if she can stay within 10. If not she is done. DeSantis has a lot of dedicated supporters but Haley relies on big donor money and the perception that she can compete with Trump. Maybe not though, we will see. I think if she loses by 10 or more she drops out fast before the bottom falls out in SC. If she stays closer than that she hangs around a bit. She has no real path to the nomination regardless so her entire point was to press to be VP or Sec of State.

Agree DeSantis can't win NH or SC but that's not what he needs to do. He's got a very, very narrow path or two but it's going to take some crazy happening. First he needs Haley to drop out and get this to a 2 person race. He also needs to get into double digits in NH and he's been creeping up there so it's possible. Then he needs to not get completely destroyed in SC and hopefully Haley is already out. Then he needs some bad break for Trump. To call it a longshot is generous.

I'm not sure of his true plan though. Certainly hanging around and seeing if Trump falters. He's still drawing crowds so he's not embarrassing himself. He could be trying to push Trump to the right. Could be trying to continue to build relationships. Maybe he is using it as leverage for something else prior to endorsing Trump. Don't know.

Anyway, barring a miracle this is all just theater. Trump certainly has all the advantages now.

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Not sure what particular poll has your interest, but the RCP average has been fairly conistent...

Haley isn't fading....she drifts between -15ish to -13ish compared to Trump, and it's been consistent since Christmas...



I think she is going to assume 2nd place in delegate count after NH, and then extend it after SC...

If I'm a donor, after a barely 2nd (and getting trounced for 1st), a 4th (well 3rd because Christie is now out, but DeSantis still polls in 4th), and another distat 3rd finish, I'm not donating money to DeSantis anymore...it's an absolute waste of resources... Not only will he finish 3rd or worse in the next two, but he is going to get absolutely stomped...there's just no sugarcoating it...

More power to him if he wants to hang around until Super Tuesday, but as the 2nd place momentum for Haley builds, he is just going to lose support in favor of her and/or folks seeing the writing on the wall and reluctantly gravitating back to Trump...

The margin of defeat in Iowa was quite devastating for DeSantis, and while it was only one point better than what Haley did (meaning it was devastating for her as well), she has a substantial lead on DeSantis in the next two... So Haley has momentum vs DeSantis, and it's not going away anytime soon...

DeSantis is welcome to stay in as long as he wants, but it's nothing more than a longshot, Hail Mary prayer hoping beyond hope that something happens to Trump to keep him from running...and even then, you are looking at going into the convention with both he and Haley neither having the support of the necessary number of delegates, and a brokered convention... And if he's 2nd to Haley in such a scenario, no chance in hell he's the nominee for P...it will be Haley, and DeSantis can determine whether or not he wants the VP spot at that point...

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Still not a fan of RCP average in primaries. Similar to the DMR the best poll in NH is the NH Register Leader that has Haley down 14 last I saw and that was before she slowed her campaign and the infidelity story broke. Fox Poll today has her down 19. Other polls have her much closer or winning so who knows, not going to make a prediction I'm talking about what happens next.

If she is within 10 she still won't win the nomination but she will be able to put a lot more pressure on Trump to be VP. If she loses by 15 or so she's done. Unlike DeSantis her support isn't based on her personally it is about her being the most viable alternative to Trump, it's incredibly soft and relies on a lot of Dems and Independents crossing over as well as massive donations from Koch and others. That can all evaporate very quickly.

The DeSantis strategy here is likely that Haley drops and then he will pick up virtually all of that support since it is the "Anyone but Trump again" vote. The reality is that even that still isn't enough. It will also take the money following over to him and something happening to Trump so DeSantis gets some momentum. Trump's entire campaign has been inevitability and it looks like it's going to work for good or bad. The DeSantis strategy at this point is relying on an X factor occurring in terms of winning. I'm not convinced it is truly about winning at this point though, it may be about posturing. It may be about forcing Haley out and making it clear he is the last one standing against Trump. I really don't know. Mainly I can see where he is probably looking up and seeing he isn't hurting himself much by staying in. The fact the Trump language around him is softening alone proves that. DeSantis doesn't want to go out bowing at Trump's feet, being called a ****, and kissing the ring. Maybe he has to but maybe he can find a better alternative.

Trump could always drop dead or have a major medical event tomorrow as well, that's simply a reality of men who are pushing 78. I know my Dad was about that age when he seemed healthy as can be and it happened and my Mom was a retired RN that was on his health like a hawk. He ended up having surgery and living another several years but politically that's irrelevant. Trump gets cancer for instance, he's done. Trump has a heart attack or stroke or some other significant and very common medical issue, he's done. Is that likely to happen in the next few months? No, but it could. If it does it is definitely of value for DeSantis to be seen as the logical alternative. He's the only candidate that could unite the Party still because most of the Party likes him or loves him and the edges at least find him tolerable. Haley? Nope, MAGA will never accept her. Vivek? Nope, Traditional GOP will not accept him either.

Like I said I see all of this as a longshot and expect DeSantis could drop out anytime, most likely after SC if I were betting. I just think this is more complicated than looking at the daily horse race. I think this is about a 45 year old DeSantis realizing that under any circumstance Trump is going to fade off and soon and no one knows what comes next. Even if Trump wins he will get about a year of relevance before everything starts to become about who succeeds him, after 2026 that's all people will care about. Lot of chess pieces moving and we can't see most of them, maybe DeSantis is doing the right thing and maybe not. No clue.

texagbeliever said:

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Trump people would love for conversation to be Trump vs Biden. But one group of people have to keep bringing up DeSantis as if he is actually relevant to the discussion. If you let people, they will stop talking about DeSantis and just focus on the most important thing in 2024, beating the democrats. inb4 BigRob says Trump is a democrat.

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So….taking notes here… during the R primary period, where Trump isn't unopposed and hasn't yet become the R candidate for the general, in a political discussion, in the politics forum…people who support Trump's primary opponent and believe the opponent to be a superior option, should not discuss the opponent in a political discussion about the primary process…and certainly not in a thread where the opponent is named in the thread title… because the opponent isn't Trump?

FireAg said:

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The number of DeSantis militants on this forum attacking anyone and everyone that doesn't drink the kool aid far outweighs Trump folks doing the same…

Folks like me can't even be in the middle using actual, empirical data to support arguments for why DeSantis was failing without being called derogatory names by the DeSantis militants…

It's pretty pathetic, honestly, and why I have about 13 posters in this forum on ignore…

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Ah, but this forum is a tiny slice of the internet my friend and the statement wasn't about this forum it was about Trump and DeSantis supporters as a whole. I fully admit this is one of the few venues that is more Pro DeSantis than Pro Trump. I could list half a dozen places where simply being a DeSantis supporter at all will get you hammered with impunity or outright banned by Trump supporters.

No doubt there are DeSantis supporters who get impolite or unreasonable as there are Trump, the difference is on this site you simply have more DeSantis supporters. I could argue as to why but that's really beside the point. I have no doubt it is hard to be a Trump backer here and some handle it better than others. For instance rocky is a pretty hardcore Trump guy and is treated with respect by pretty much everyone.

I'm sure you felt harassed here at times but that is simply because you made virtually all of your arguments about polls and doom and gloom and after a while that irritates people. Doesn't even make you right or wrong but it does mean folks get tired when it is the same thing day after day and you are going to get hostility. It's what you choose to do with that. Personally I've never used the ignore function as I just laugh it off when people don't like me or get personal. It's just an internet board.

It is for sure…my post is intended for other eyes than yours…

aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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I think he hangs in until South Carolina and sees what happens. The longer he is staying in seems to be pulling Trump on some positions like CBDC so I'm all for it. Trump and Haley seem to barely be campaigning so why not? Some of the Desantis folks are encouraging him to go scorched Earth on Trump and I disagree with that, though he needs to point out policy differences.

Right now the hope is that Haley does poorly in NH and drops out and it may press Trump to make a VP decision. It's all longshot territory for sure but I don't think DeSantis is damaging himself by staying in and he is setting himself up to be the alternative if Trump is out for some reason (health being the biggest thing imo). He can always suspend if he wants, just no real rush.

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There's a better chance of Haley beating Trump in NH than there is of Haley doing poorly…

Don't think she beats Trump, but it's going to be tight…

DeSantis has zero shot in either NH or SC…

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Polls I've been watching show Haley fading. I think the key is if she can stay within 10. If not she is done. DeSantis has a lot of dedicated supporters but Haley relies on big donor money and the perception that she can compete with Trump. Maybe not though, we will see. I think if she loses by 10 or more she drops out fast before the bottom falls out in SC. If she stays closer than that she hangs around a bit. She has no real path to the nomination regardless so her entire point was to press to be VP or Sec of State.

Agree DeSantis can't win NH or SC but that's not what he needs to do. He's got a very, very narrow path or two but it's going to take some crazy happening. First he needs Haley to drop out and get this to a 2 person race. He also needs to get into double digits in NH and he's been creeping up there so it's possible. Then he needs to not get completely destroyed in SC and hopefully Haley is already out. Then he needs some bad break for Trump. To call it a longshot is generous.

I'm not sure of his true plan though. Certainly hanging around and seeing if Trump falters. He's still drawing crowds so he's not embarrassing himself. He could be trying to push Trump to the right. Could be trying to continue to build relationships. Maybe he is using it as leverage for something else prior to endorsing Trump. Don't know.

Anyway, barring a miracle this is all just theater. Trump certainly has all the advantages now.

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Not sure what particular poll has your interest, but the RCP average has been fairly conistent...

Haley isn't fading....she drifts between -15ish to -13ish compared to Trump, and it's been consistent since Christmas...



I think she is going to assume 2nd place in delegate count after NH, and then extend it after SC...

If I'm a donor, after a barely 2nd (and getting trounced for 1st), a 4th (well 3rd because Christie is now out, but DeSantis still polls in 4th), and another distat 3rd finish, I'm not donating money to DeSantis anymore...it's an absolute waste of resources... Not only will he finish 3rd or worse in the next two, but he is going to get absolutely stomped...there's just no sugarcoating it...

More power to him if he wants to hang around until Super Tuesday, but as the 2nd place momentum for Haley builds, he is just going to lose support in favor of her and/or folks seeing the writing on the wall and reluctantly gravitating back to Trump...

The margin of defeat in Iowa was quite devastating for DeSantis, and while it was only one point better than what Haley did (meaning it was devastating for her as well), she has a substantial lead on DeSantis in the next two... So Haley has momentum vs DeSantis, and it's not going away anytime soon...

DeSantis is welcome to stay in as long as he wants, but it's nothing more than a longshot, Hail Mary prayer hoping beyond hope that something happens to Trump to keep him from running...and even then, you are looking at going into the convention with both he and Haley neither having the support of the necessary number of delegates, and a brokered convention... And if he's 2nd to Haley in such a scenario, no chance in hell he's the nominee for P...it will be Haley, and DeSantis can determine whether or not he wants the VP spot at that point...

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Still not a fan of RCP average in primaries. Similar to the DMR the best poll in NH is the NH Register Leader that has Haley down 14 last I saw and that was before she slowed her campaign and the infidelity story broke. Fox Poll today has her down 19. Other polls have her much closer or winning so who knows, not going to make a prediction I'm talking about what happens next.

If she is within 10 she still won't win the nomination but she will be able to put a lot more pressure on Trump to be VP. If she loses by 15 or so she's done. Unlike DeSantis her support isn't based on her personally it is about her being the most viable alternative to Trump, it's incredibly soft and relies on a lot of Dems and Independents crossing over as well as massive donations from Koch and others. That can all evaporate very quickly.

The DeSantis strategy here is likely that Haley drops and then he will pick up virtually all of that support since it is the "Anyone but Trump again" vote. The reality is that even that still isn't enough. It will also take the money following over to him and something happening to Trump so DeSantis gets some momentum. Trump's entire campaign has been inevitability and it looks like it's going to work for good or bad. The DeSantis strategy at this point is relying on an X factor occurring in terms of winning. I'm not convinced it is truly about winning at this point though, it may be about posturing. It may be about forcing Haley out and making it clear he is the last one standing against Trump. I really don't know. Mainly I can see where he is probably looking up and seeing he isn't hurting himself much by staying in. The fact the Trump language around him is softening alone proves that. DeSantis doesn't want to go out bowing at Trump's feet, being called a ****, and kissing the ring. Maybe he has to but maybe he can find a better alternative.

Trump could always drop dead or have a major medical event tomorrow as well, that's simply a reality of men who are pushing 78. I know my Dad was about that age when he seemed healthy as can be and it happened and my Mom was a retired RN that was on his health like a hawk. He ended up having surgery and living another several years but politically that's irrelevant. Trump gets cancer for instance, he's done. Trump has a heart attack or stroke or some other significant and very common medical issue, he's done. Is that likely to happen in the next few months? No, but it could. If it does it is definitely of value for DeSantis to be seen as the logical alternative. He's the only candidate that could unite the Party still because most of the Party likes him or loves him and the edges at least find him tolerable. Haley? Nope, MAGA will never accept her. Vivek? Nope, Traditional GOP will not accept him either.

Like I said I see all of this as a longshot and expect DeSantis could drop out anytime, most likely after SC if I were betting. I just think this is more complicated than looking at the daily horse race. I think this is about a 45 year old DeSantis realizing that under any circumstance Trump is going to fade off and soon and no one knows what comes next. Even if Trump wins he will get about a year of relevance before everything starts to become about who succeeds him, after 2026 that's all people will care about. Lot of chess pieces moving and we can't see most of them, maybe DeSantis is doing the right thing and maybe not. No clue.

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I think you are focusing on a poll here or there that helps support your position…the RCP falls in line with the poll you are referencing as it did with the poll you referenced in Iowa…

FireAg said:

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Voters ARE ABSOLUTELY DUMB…

I've been saying this from the beginning…and that's why I have been consistent with my message…

DeSantis didn't do enough to grab the attention of the masses…who, as you rightfully point out, are dumb…

You have to find a way to grab their attention…he didn't do so with his strategy or packaging of his messaging…

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And have been for ages. Surely DeSantis knows voters are dumb or those on his campaign staff told him they were. If not, they should have. If he wants to get elected as POTUS in '28, he needs to find a way to connect with the dumb voters or he won't stand a chance. He didn't get it done this go round. Being a great governor in the State of Florida isn't enough in and of itself to compete for a national office.

infinity ag said:

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Why is DeSantis wasting his time? He won't displace Trump.

Vivek was smart and saw the writing on the wall and dropped out.

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Vivek was never running to be President though. He was running to get a name for himself and curry favor with Trump and his supporters. It was inevitable he was going to drop out and do exactly what he is doing. Vivek played the game well and has a future.

DeSantis was running to win and if not win be seen as formidable and the future. What he found is people are still holding on for that one last run with Trump and just love the guy but in the end DeSantis has made a lot of connections and friends and still made no real enemies, at least none that can't be won back over (outside of maybe a few folks that genuinely believe Trumps a prophet sent from God but that's not many). He still gets to go back to Florida and keep kicking ass for the next 2 years and then see what he wants to do next. As of today he is the likely frontrunner in '28.

BigRobSA said:

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Funky Winkerbean said:

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What policy wins culture wars?

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Ask Disney.

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Except I'm asking you.

Eh…but let's at least be honest…polling information showed early on that he had little chance of winning…

ttu_85 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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aggie93 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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I didn't really care that Trump supporters attacked DeSantis ones. Trump supporters had the advantage of knowing they were going to win a few months ago. If you want to get someone to switch onto your team, it is stupid to attack them. The difference is in the national election Trump & DeSantis supporters will both be on the same team against Progressives. If DeSantis would have managed to win the Republican nomination, then the tables would be turned fairly. But that isn't happening.

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K, story keeps evolving but sure.

Still when looking at why Trump supporters didn't want to leave Trump for DeSantis I'm not buying that some DeSantis supporters were meanies. They like Trump and they weren't going to change from Trump. Issues arguments and personal behavior didn't shift that. They like Trump. So it looks like he will be the nominee. I will vote for him but I think it was a huge mistake to nominate him over DeSantis if that ends up being the case but people like Trump for all kinds of reasons that I personally disagree with or think are flat out loony. That's politics though and I'm sure Trump supporters may feel the same about some DeSantis supporters.

BTW, since Trump is going to be the nominee you may want to think about trying to change your mind about Trump folks wanting to stop attacking DeSantis supporters. I mean if winning in November is part of the plan that is. I would recommend insulting them harder is a bad strategy because not everyone lets it roll off their back as easy as I do.

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Trump people would love for conversation to be Trump vs Biden. But one group of people have to keep bringing up DeSantis as if he is actually relevant to the discussion. If you let people, they will stop talking about DeSantis and just focus on the most important thing in 2024, beating the democrats. inb4 BigRob says Trump is a democrat.

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A discussion of what? two really old on-set dementia patients for the highest office in the nation . What a depressing topic.

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If it's a conversation about Trump vs Biden, then it will be 99% about Trump and 1% Biden. Which means the focus goes on all the bad of Trump and OFF of all the bad of Biden.

It's as if the plan is being written by the Democrats themselves for how they would love it to be framed. Biden sucks. His economy sucks. His immigration policies suck. His foreign policy sucks.

And the entire campaign will be about Trump and his legal issues.

This thread needs to end before DeSantis campaign does.

I truly wonder if it will?

FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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FireAg said:

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aggie93 said:

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I think he hangs in until South Carolina and sees what happens. The longer he is staying in seems to be pulling Trump on some positions like CBDC so I'm all for it. Trump and Haley seem to barely be campaigning so why not? Some of the Desantis folks are encouraging him to go scorched Earth on Trump and I disagree with that, though he needs to point out policy differences.

Right now the hope is that Haley does poorly in NH and drops out and it may press Trump to make a VP decision. It's all longshot territory for sure but I don't think DeSantis is damaging himself by staying in and he is setting himself up to be the alternative if Trump is out for some reason (health being the biggest thing imo). He can always suspend if he wants, just no real rush.

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There's a better chance of Haley beating Trump in NH than there is of Haley doing poorly…

Don't think she beats Trump, but it's going to be tight…

DeSantis has zero shot in either NH or SC…

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Polls I've been watching show Haley fading. I think the key is if she can stay within 10. If not she is done. DeSantis has a lot of dedicated supporters but Haley relies on big donor money and the perception that she can compete with Trump. Maybe not though, we will see. I think if she loses by 10 or more she drops out fast before the bottom falls out in SC. If she stays closer than that she hangs around a bit. She has no real path to the nomination regardless so her entire point was to press to be VP or Sec of State.

Agree DeSantis can't win NH or SC but that's not what he needs to do. He's got a very, very narrow path or two but it's going to take some crazy happening. First he needs Haley to drop out and get this to a 2 person race. He also needs to get into double digits in NH and he's been creeping up there so it's possible. Then he needs to not get completely destroyed in SC and hopefully Haley is already out. Then he needs some bad break for Trump. To call it a longshot is generous.

I'm not sure of his true plan though. Certainly hanging around and seeing if Trump falters. He's still drawing crowds so he's not embarrassing himself. He could be trying to push Trump to the right. Could be trying to continue to build relationships. Maybe he is using it as leverage for something else prior to endorsing Trump. Don't know.

Anyway, barring a miracle this is all just theater. Trump certainly has all the advantages now.

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Not sure what particular poll has your interest, but the RCP average has been fairly conistent...

Haley isn't fading....she drifts between -15ish to -13ish compared to Trump, and it's been consistent since Christmas...



I think she is going to assume 2nd place in delegate count after NH, and then extend it after SC...

If I'm a donor, after a barely 2nd (and getting trounced for 1st), a 4th (well 3rd because Christie is now out, but DeSantis still polls in 4th), and another distat 3rd finish, I'm not donating money to DeSantis anymore...it's an absolute waste of resources... Not only will he finish 3rd or worse in the next two, but he is going to get absolutely stomped...there's just no sugarcoating it...

More power to him if he wants to hang around until Super Tuesday, but as the 2nd place momentum for Haley builds, he is just going to lose support in favor of her and/or folks seeing the writing on the wall and reluctantly gravitating back to Trump...

The margin of defeat in Iowa was quite devastating for DeSantis, and while it was only one point better than what Haley did (meaning it was devastating for her as well), she has a substantial lead on DeSantis in the next two... So Haley has momentum vs DeSantis, and it's not going away anytime soon...

DeSantis is welcome to stay in as long as he wants, but it's nothing more than a longshot, Hail Mary prayer hoping beyond hope that something happens to Trump to keep him from running...and even then, you are looking at going into the convention with both he and Haley neither having the support of the necessary number of delegates, and a brokered convention... And if he's 2nd to Haley in such a scenario, no chance in hell he's the nominee for P...it will be Haley, and DeSantis can determine whether or not he wants the VP spot at that point...

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Still not a fan of RCP average in primaries. Similar to the DMR the best poll in NH is the NH Register Leader that has Haley down 14 last I saw and that was before she slowed her campaign and the infidelity story broke. Fox Poll today has her down 19. Other polls have her much closer or winning so who knows, not going to make a prediction I'm talking about what happens next.

If she is within 10 she still won't win the nomination but she will be able to put a lot more pressure on Trump to be VP. If she loses by 15 or so she's done. Unlike DeSantis her support isn't based on her personally it is about her being the most viable alternative to Trump, it's incredibly soft and relies on a lot of Dems and Independents crossing over as well as massive donations from Koch and others. That can all evaporate very quickly.

The DeSantis strategy here is likely that Haley drops and then he will pick up virtually all of that support since it is the "Anyone but Trump again" vote. The reality is that even that still isn't enough. It will also take the money following over to him and something happening to Trump so DeSantis gets some momentum. Trump's entire campaign has been inevitability and it looks like it's going to work for good or bad. The DeSantis strategy at this point is relying on an X factor occurring in terms of winning. I'm not convinced it is truly about winning at this point though, it may be about posturing. It may be about forcing Haley out and making it clear he is the last one standing against Trump. I really don't know. Mainly I can see where he is probably looking up and seeing he isn't hurting himself much by staying in. The fact the Trump language around him is softening alone proves that. DeSantis doesn't want to go out bowing at Trump's feet, being called a ****, and kissing the ring. Maybe he has to but maybe he can find a better alternative.

Trump could always drop dead or have a major medical event tomorrow as well, that's simply a reality of men who are pushing 78. I know my Dad was about that age when he seemed healthy as can be and it happened and my Mom was a retired RN that was on his health like a hawk. He ended up having surgery and living another several years but politically that's irrelevant. Trump gets cancer for instance, he's done. Trump has a heart attack or stroke or some other significant and very common medical issue, he's done. Is that likely to happen in the next few months? No, but it could. If it does it is definitely of value for DeSantis to be seen as the logical alternative. He's the only candidate that could unite the Party still because most of the Party likes him or loves him and the edges at least find him tolerable. Haley? Nope, MAGA will never accept her. Vivek? Nope, Traditional GOP will not accept him either.

Like I said I see all of this as a longshot and expect DeSantis could drop out anytime, most likely after SC if I were betting. I just think this is more complicated than looking at the daily horse race. I think this is about a 45 year old DeSantis realizing that under any circumstance Trump is going to fade off and soon and no one knows what comes next. Even if Trump wins he will get about a year of relevance before everything starts to become about who succeeds him, after 2026 that's all people will care about. Lot of chess pieces moving and we can't see most of them, maybe DeSantis is doing the right thing and maybe not. No clue.

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I think you are focusing on a poll here or there that helps support your position…the RCP falls in line with the poll you are referencing as it did with the poll you referenced in Iowa…

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That's why I said it depend on what happens. I think you are misreading my larger point. The important part is the beginning. If Haley is within 10 or certainly wins she definitely hangs around. Still she has no path to winning because her only way of competing with Trump is to get Dems and Independents to vote in the GOP primary. That will work here and there but not enough to win. She literally isn't even participating in Nevada and can't at this point for instance. So if she does get close she hangs around and likely becomes VP or maybe SoS.

The rest of my post was assuming she doesn't do well. The thing is Haley's support is fundamentally not her own. She is propped up by massive spending by Koch and other Wall Street folks as well as Sununu's organization. Try and find a hardcore Haley supporter that really believes in her. I'm sure there are a few but certainly not folks with passion like Trump or DeSantis or even Vivek has. She's the epitome of a compromise candidate that people may like or can tolerate but very few love. Thus why her support is so soft.

I still feel this election was decided on November 28 when Koch endorsed Haley and gave her all his money and support. She was dead in the water and broke and it changed everything for her. Sununu's endorsement came not long after along with all the other Wall Street money. She still never had a path to winning though. I have no doubt those folks preferred her to DeSantis since DeSantis is an idealogue and can't be bought and Haley basically walks around with a For Sale sign. That's also why the spending coordination with Trump and Haley is so interesting. If Haley was really the threat for Trump he would be going full bore against her but he's barely paid lip service to her much less spent any real resources on her. Yet Trump and Haley have gone nuclear on DeSantis.

Always hard to know what's going on behind the scenes but I do know that most of what we see is what they want us to see not the true picture. That's how the game works on all sides.