Murder Rate Problem: Part Two

2,504 Views | 30 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by captkirk
MemphisAg1
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Starting a new thread to shed more light on this topic. The original thread (https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3358357) stirred my curiosity, and I dug into it deeper. First thing was to look closer at the source data from the CDC for the year 2020. If you try to drill down into a state to understand it better, it became obvious there are holes in the data.

Texas for example, has 254 counties, but the CDC only listed the data for 30 counties. The other 224 were "suppressed" due to "statistical imperfections." Their totals however, were lumped into the state total, and you can calculate their aggregate statistics by simple math. By being "suppressed", you could be led to believe those 224 counties are like the 30. But not so. They had a lower murder rate than the Texas average, and unsurprisingly most of them are rural, red counties.

I began to smell a rat with cherry-picked analysis from the authors in the original thread. Since the state total data is the only thing reliable, I focused there. A huge flaw in the original approach is all Biden and Trump states were thrown together as if the same. For example, a state that voted 50.1% Biden was treated the same as one that voted 70%. Same for the Trump category. Common sense tells you that you can't lump things together like that and assume they're the same.

So I used the source data to calculate "% Biden voters" and "% Trump voters" by state to be more precise and understand if there's a correlation with murder rates. There is not, and the graphs below show it. Each has an R-square of essentially zero, which means no correlation.




This means you can't take who won the state for President and make broad sweeping assumptions about how that relates to murder rates in the state, because there is no relationship there. States are very large populations with a very diverse group of people, cultures, and behaviors. You have to dig deeper. The authors in the original thread carefully found a set of group statistics to make a claim that is unsupported by the facts.

I looked into cultural issues and one jumped out… the percentage of babies in a state that are born out of wedlock. The graph below shows the relationship. The R-square of 68% is high and suggests that roughly two thirds of the murder rate difference between states is connected in some way to the percentage of babies born without both parents present.



Makes sense to me, as kids that grow up without both parents to insist on a good education and staying out of trouble are at a huge disadvantage and more likely to follow a lifestyle of crime. Doesn't mean there aren't single parents who do a great job because there are but they are an exception to the trend.

Interestingly, you can point directly at Democrats' social policies (generational welfare, abortion, soft on crime, etc) as contributors to a culture that doesn't value life, hard work, or personal responsibility. That's where the conversation needs to focus, instead of deflecting away to who-voted-for-who.
CDUB98
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What?! Progressives manipulate data to support a specific narrative?

I'm absolutely shocked. Shocked I tell ya.
Señor Chang
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Great analysis, thanks for sharing.
The Banned
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You deserve no less than the blue parachute
Rock1982
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Outstanding analysis. Thanks.
jonb02
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MemphisAg1 said:

Starting a new thread to shed more light on this topic. The original thread (https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3358357) stirred my curiosity, and I dug into it deeper. First thing was to look closer at the source data from the CDC for the year 2020. If you try to drill down into a state to understand it better, it became obvious there are holes in the data.

Texas for example, has 254 counties, but the CDC only listed the data for 30 counties. The other 224 were "suppressed" due to "statistical imperfections." Their totals however, were lumped into the state total, and you can calculate their aggregate statistics by simple math. By being "suppressed", you could be led to believe those 224 counties are like the 30. But not so. They had a lower murder rate than the Texas average, and unsurprisingly most of them are rural, red counties.

I began to smell a rat with cherry-picked analysis from the authors in the original thread. Since the state total data is the only thing reliable, I focused there. A huge flaw in the original approach is all Biden and Trump states were thrown together as if the same. For example, a state that voted 50.1% Biden was treated the same as one that voted 70%. Same for the Trump category. Common sense tells you that you can't lump things together like that and assume they're the same.

So I used the source data to calculate "% Biden voters" and "% Trump voters" by state to be more precise and understand if there's a correlation with murder rates. There is not, and the graphs below show it. Each has an R-square of essentially zero, which means no correlation.




This means you can't take who won the state for President and make broad sweeping assumptions about how that relates to murder rates in the state, because there is no relationship there. States are very large populations with a very diverse group of people, cultures, and behaviors. You have to dig deeper. The authors in the original thread carefully found a set of group statistics to make a claim that is unsupported by the facts.

I looked into cultural issues and one jumped out… the percentage of babies in a state that are born out of wedlock. The graph below shows the relationship. The R-square of 68% is high and suggests that roughly two thirds of the murder rate difference between states is connected in some way to the percentage of babies born without both parents present.



Makes sense to me, as kids that grow up without both parents to insist on a good education and staying out of trouble are at a huge disadvantage and more likely to follow a lifestyle of crime. Doesn't mean there aren't single parents who do a great job because there are but they are an exception to the trend.

Interestingly, you can point directly at Democrats' social policies (generational welfare, abortion, soft on crime, etc) as contributors to a culture that doesn't value life, hard work, or personal responsibility. That's where the conversation needs to focus, instead of deflecting away to who-voted-for-who.

I love sociology. Numbers never lie.
BCG Disciple
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The OOW stat is what is being used to drive socialism. They no longer want to encourage the nuclear family as that concept is steeped in white privilege. They want the community upbringing the family.

Basically they think their culture is too far gone and are wanting a bandaid and not to treat the problem.

This was a central tenet of the BLM movement . There were some notable outspoken athletes against it. I believe Booger McFarland was against the BLM movement specifically because of the stance against the family, as he commented that he specifically put in the effort to be a father for his children and he could not get behind a movement that deemphasized the family.
Muktheduck
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The left *really* does not want to get into a data driven "murder rate demographics" slap fight. A few of those X-axises undermine the entire world view
CStewTAMU
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The OP shows an good example of what Thomas Sowell calls "Ah ha! Statistics."

Anytime I hear or read something that says "A study shows…" I take it with a grain of salt. Especially if they are not forthcoming with all the methodologies and definitions used in the study that produce the statistics that support their argument. A shallow dive into some of the methodologies and definitions used might make you burst out laughing.
YouBet
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I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.
HumbleAg04
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The one metric that determines if a child will be a successful adult above all other is a two parent household.

This beats race, wealth, and location. There is a reason BLM and Commies go after the nuclear family and the "patriarchy" because it is in fact the most important thing.
CDUB98
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Was the other thread deep sixed?
Manhattan
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YouBet said:

I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.

OPs claim is red states have cultural issues, what is there to analyze, he is right.
YouBet
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Manhattan said:

YouBet said:

I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.

OPs claim is red states have cultural issues, what is there to analyze, he is right.
OPs claim directly quoted:

Quote:

This means you can't take who won the state for President and make broad sweeping assumptions about how that relates to murder rates in the state, because there is no relationship there.
You are a pathological liar. Good lord.
Manhattan
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I didn't say your second quote, I said he said red states have cultural issues, which he said.
AnScAggie
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Great job OP!!! Having to prove what everyone knows is frustrating, but I am glad you did it.
YouBet
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Manhattan said:

I didn't say your second quote, I said he said red states have cultural issues, which he said.
Christ you are dumb. That's his quote. His claim. You said his claim was that red states have culture problems which is not at all what he's claiming. That is stated no where in his OP.

This is some incredible cognitive dissonance, lying, and trolling even by your standards.
MemphisAg1
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Manhattan said:

YouBet said:

I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.

OPs claim is red states have cultural issues, what is there to analyze, he is right.
For the record, I disproved the thesis in the other thread that who-you-vote-for (red or blue) is linked to murder rates in a state. There is no relationship.

I also showed that state murder rates are highly correlated to the out-of-wedlock birth rates in states.

And furthermore, I claim that high OOW rates are heavily driven by Democrat policies that undermine the two parent family structure.
Manhattan
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They just happen to happen more in red states… K
fixer
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R squared that high in social sciences is pretty incredible.
MemphisAg1
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Manhattan said:

They just happen to happen more in red states… K
You're being incredibly obtuse. And still wrong.

There is no relationship between the number of Trump voters in a state and the babies born out-of-wedlock. You keep trying to make that claim, but it's BS. Here's the data in graph form. The data is all over the place with immense variability.



There's an R-square of zero, meaning no relationship. In fact, the location with the highest OOW babies is Washington DC with only 5% of the population that voted for Trump. 95% are Dems! But that's an isolated data point, and I won't try to say it's correlated to the number of Biden voters either, because it is not.

I know this is hard, but you have to think beyond the talking points.

What are the key causes for OOW births? I maintain it's the generational welfare (a Dem policy) that breaks up families. If you think it's something different, let's hear it. But stop with the "red state" crap because the data proves there's no connection there.
Franklin Comes Alive!
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Just a heads up… you're arguing w a Soros spam bot

Great analysis though, op was spot on
richardag
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MemphisAg1 said:

Manhattan said:

They just happen to happen more in red states… K
You're being incredibly obtuse. And still wrong.

There is no relationship between the number of Trump voters in a state and the babies born out-of-wedlock. You keep trying to make that claim, but it's BS. Here's the data in graph form. The data is all over the place with immense variability.



There's an R-square of zero, meaning no relationship. In fact, the location with the highest OOW babies is Washington DC with only 5% of the population that voted for Trump. 95% are Dems! But that's an isolated data point, and I won't try to say it's correlated to the number of Biden voters either, because it is not.

I know this is hard, but you have to think beyond the talking points.

What are the key causes for OOW births? I maintain it's the generational welfare (a Dem policy) that breaks up families. If you think it's something different, let's hear it. But stop with the "red state" crap because the data proves there's no connection there.
Damn, you have done an excellent job proving your point. Thank you for your work and information.
-We understand why children are afraid of darkness ... but why are men afraid of light?
Plato
TRADUCTOR
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Single moms are the farm league to prison.
TheCurl84
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MemphisAg1 said:

Manhattan said:

YouBet said:

I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.

OPs claim is red states have cultural issues, what is there to analyze, he is right.
For the record, I disproved the thesis in the other thread that who-you-vote-for (red or blue) is linked to murder rates in a state. There is no relationship.

I also showed that state murder rates are highly correlated to the out-of-wedlock birth rates in states.

And furthermore, I claim that high OOW rates are heavily driven by Democrat policies that undermine the two parent family structure.



Dang MemphisAg. Shouldn't you be out rioting or something?
Smeghead4761
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I'll drop these two articles from City Journal and the Manhattan Institute into the discussion:

From May 2022 - https://www.manhattan-institute.org/breaking-down-the-2020-homicide-spike?utm_source=press_release&utm_medium=email

From January 2023 - https://www.city-journal.org/update-on-americas-homicide-surge

The first article gets into a lot of statistical terms that go way over my basic Stats class (30+years ago) educated head.

A note on what the 'suppression' of some county level data means: "An important limitation of the county-level CDC data is that death counts below 10 are suppressed for privacy reasons. Thus, numbers for the smallest counties are missingand data for somewhat larger counties are selectively missing depending on whether these counties' homicide rates are high enough to put them above the threshold of 10 killings. As a result, we obtain roughly 290 counties with complete data in 2019 and 2020. Although that is only a fraction of the total of nearly 3,000 counties, it constitutes 58% of the population. Furthermore, crime is concentrated in these densely populated counties.[5] When we restrict our analysis to only large counties with over 300,000 people, the results are nearly identical."

Basically, if there were fewer than 10 murders in a county over the specified time period, that data wasn't included.

And some points from the CJ article, which largely back up the OP's assertions:


Quote:

- For one thing, overall homicide rates in both periods are positively correlated with the Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote in 2020.

- How strongly the increase between the two periods is correlated with politics depends on how you measure. Since Democratic counties started with higher homicide rates and the surge generally deepened existing disparities, it's perhaps unsurprising that Democratic counties saw bigger increases in their raw homicide rates (that is, simply subtracting the 20182019 rates from the 20202021 ones)

- When the changes are presented in percentage increases to homicide rates, the partisan skew is a little less pronounced, if still evident

These are accompanied by graphs.

The one thing about murder rates, and violent crime rates in general, is that there's one racial group, which composes a bit over one-eighth of the population, which contributes approximately half of the total homicides. But it can't be mentioned, because racism or something.
InfantryAg
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MemphisAg1 said:

Manhattan said:

YouBet said:

I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.

OPs claim is red states have cultural issues, what is there to analyze, he is right.
For the record, I disproved the thesis in the other thread that who-you-vote-for (red or blue) is linked to murder rates in a state. There is no relationship.

I also showed that state murder rates are highly correlated to the out-of-wedlock birth rates in states.

And furthermore, I claim that high OOW rates are heavily driven by Democrat policies that undermine the two parent family structure.
WHO ARE YOU to dispute what manhatten says you said? He knows what you were really saying and he knows it much better than you.

In fact he should get this years Leni Riefenstahl award; Except she had talent.
AggieVictor10
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Whoa manhattan must have a pretty cool etch a sketch if he can post online with it
Less virtue signaling, more vice signaling.

Birds aren’t real.
An L of an Ag
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Sort of a "Triumph of the Shill", right?
Tom_Fox
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Manhattan said:

YouBet said:

I look forward to Manhattan disputing the OPs statistical analysis with his own analysis using his Etch A Sketch.

OPs claim is red states blacks have cultural issues, what is there to analyze, he is right.
FIFY
captkirk
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Most of the so-called "studies" done by the left are simply to support a narrative. They all immediately fall apart when you look at the data and assumptions. Nice job, OP
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