By golly it's Utopia!

Manhattan said:

---

Tesla is already doing it with Powerwall, there is no technological difference doing it with a car.

---

Well i guess in your progressive utopia we'll all be jerking off in the meta verse so who needs a car.

Idk why you think I'm anti car… I live in pretty much one of the only places in the US where you can get around without one…. And still have one by choice.

Looks like maybe VW will get an inexpensive EV for the masses out there before Tesla.

Hello world! It’s me, the ID. 2all*!💙🎊

Our new e-car for <25,000 euros. Spacious as a Golf, as affordable as a Polo: the car for everyone and every day.

*Concept Car#VWforthePeople #Volkswagen #VW #VWID2all pic.twitter.com/gZkXy6mdGr

— Volkswagen News (@volkswagen) March 15, 2023

The one and only VW I have owned was a complete POS

Tesla claims they are going to make (yes I know not fab) 100% of the chips in their $25k car, that plus a 48V LV system should allow them to do it profitably. I'm not sure VW can pull that off yet.

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

You're taking new tech vs long established tech. With ICE, it's about small improvements now - the big problems were worked out over 100+ years...EVs are where ICE was much earlier its evolution so it has much more room for improvement.

---

Exactly. Wake me when they get there. And the electric grid can support them.

---

This is the biggest issue IMHO...

Especially with the enviros and their anti-fossil fuel views. It will make it hard to build out the necessary grid power...

---

EVs will strengthen the electric grid when everyone has an 80kWh grid buffer in their driveway or people plugged in and charging can sign up for demand response programs.

The average American drives 39 miles a day, at 300Wh a mile (worse efficiency than my car) they only need 8 hours of charging per day at 120V 12A, otherwise known as a regular wall plug.

---

Everyone, huh?

See...this is why I discount a lot of the EV crowd. They live in a world that isn't actually reality.

Manhattan said:

---

Idk why you think I'm anti car… I live in pretty much one of the only places in the US where you can get around without one…. And still have one by choice.

---

You just described every city with the minimum of a bus system.

Yeah, you got me, I don't have a driveway.

Ag with kids said:

---

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

You're taking new tech vs long established tech. With ICE, it's about small improvements now - the big problems were worked out over 100+ years...EVs are where ICE was much earlier its evolution so it has much more room for improvement.

---

Exactly. Wake me when they get there. And the electric grid can support them.

---

This is the biggest issue IMHO...

Especially with the enviros and their anti-fossil fuel views. It will make it hard to build out the necessary grid power...

---

EVs will strengthen the electric grid when everyone has an 80kWh grid buffer in their driveway or people plugged in and charging can sign up for demand response programs.

The average American drives 39 miles a day, at 300Wh a mile (worse efficiency than my car) they only need 8 hours of charging per day at 120V 12A, otherwise known as a regular wall plug.

---

Everyone, huh?

See...this is why I discount a lot of the EV crowd. They live in a world that isn't actually reality.

---

Hope as a tactic.

Ag with kids said:

---

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

You're taking new tech vs long established tech. With ICE, it's about small improvements now - the big problems were worked out over 100+ years...EVs are where ICE was much earlier its evolution so it has much more room for improvement.

---

Exactly. Wake me when they get there. And the electric grid can support them.

---

This is the biggest issue IMHO...

Especially with the enviros and their anti-fossil fuel views. It will make it hard to build out the necessary grid power...

---

EVs will strengthen the electric grid when everyone has an 80kWh grid buffer in their driveway or people plugged in and charging can sign up for demand response programs.

The average American drives 39 miles a day, at 300Wh a mile (worse efficiency than my car) they only need 8 hours of charging per day at 120V 12A, otherwise known as a regular wall plug.

---

Everyone, huh?

See...this is why I discount a lot of the EV crowd. They live in a world that isn't actually reality.

---

Everyone who is "increasing demand on the grid." Is that better?

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

You're taking new tech vs long established tech. With ICE, it's about small improvements now - the big problems were worked out over 100+ years...EVs are where ICE was much earlier its evolution so it has much more room for improvement.

---

Exactly. Wake me when they get there. And the electric grid can support them.

---

This is the biggest issue IMHO...

Especially with the enviros and their anti-fossil fuel views. It will make it hard to build out the necessary grid power...

---

EVs will strengthen the electric grid when everyone has an 80kWh grid buffer in their driveway or people plugged in and charging can sign up for demand response programs.

The average American drives 39 miles a day, at 300Wh a mile (worse efficiency than my car) they only need 8 hours of charging per day at 120V 12A, otherwise known as a regular wall plug.

---

Everyone, huh?

See...this is why I discount a lot of the EV crowd. They live in a world that isn't actually reality.

---

Everyone who is "increasing demand on the grid." Is that better?

---

So, EVERYONE that gets an EV will get one of those in their driveway? I guess you won't get an EV. And neither will people that live in apartments. Or many rural people (I used to park about 30 yards from my house for 20 years)...

The reality is there will be a subset of EV owners that might do that. The rest will be an additional load on an already taxed grid.

Arguing colloquialisms as if they're legitimate statements.

That said I don't particularly agree with that interpretation of how the grid is going to get fortified. I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

Everyone looks at NMC batteries and then cost projects what a world reliant on that technology would look like and doesn't realize there's a wide variety of different battery technologies there and that have different benefits and drawbacks.

Some are have cheaper materials, but have shorter life cycles, or are cheaper, but have lower energy densities. Every electrification use case is going to have to do an analysis of what is truly necessary. When Tesla started manufacturing EVs it was believed that NMC batteries were an absolute necessity, now they sell more vehicles that utilize LFP batteries than NMC.

Grid reliability is certainly a threat, but I think there's enough awareness and time and need to result in not only an equivalently reliable grid, but a more reliable one.

The transition is going to be exceedingly slow. V2G is going to be an individualized reliability opportunity, but I don't think it's going to be a long term solution, because it will be cheaper/more convenient to just get a whole home battery back up.

I would not bet on that. VW is just talking about what they plan to do, with deliveries starting no earlier than 2025 (betting there won't be any significant volume until at least 2026). Tesla is being extremely quiet about their next gen vehicle timeline, because it is going to significantly cannibalize their current offerings/force price reductions when it's launched. They're going to kick that can down the road, announcing it, as far as they can.

What we do know is they've announced their next factory location (Monterey, MX), that factory is going to be producing their next gen vehicle, and that it's anticipated the groundbreaking on that facility is going to happen in months (rumored to be May). The head of Tesla's manufacturing expansion, Tom Zhu, has said his goal is to go from groundbreaking to production faster than they did when he oversaw the development of their Shanghai facility. That took 9 months. We may see a compact Tesla wagon on the road by the time VW takes its first pre-order.


If I had to guess you're going to get prototype/concept before the end of the summer and that pre-orders will start by Spring 2024.

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Yeah it seems to me that with every car company in the world wanting to transition to EVs that components would go up based on demand.

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Economies of scale and manufacturing improvements

techno-ag said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Yeah it seems to me that with every car company in the world wanting to transition to EVs that components would go up based on demand.

---

No...Increased demand means prices go DOWN! Don't you understand economics?

Ag with kids said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Yeah it seems to me that with every car company in the world wanting to transition to EVs that components would go up based on demand.

---

No...Increased demand means prices go DOWN! Don't you understand economics?

---

Ya, that's why flat panel TV's are still $15,000 like they were in 2002

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Hope as a tactic yet again?

I dont get it either. Competition drives down prices, and our liberal leadership is already getting involved which will destroy competition.

Teslag said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Yeah it seems to me that with every car company in the world wanting to transition to EVs that components would go up based on demand.

---

No...Increased demand means prices go DOWN! Don't you understand economics?

---

Ya, that's why flat panel TV's are still $15,000 like they were in 2002

---

The components for EVs are a little more scarce than HDTV components...

But fair enough.

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

I assume the mechanism is supposed to be the economies of scale and the maturation of supply side support… which would normally make sense… but the geopolitics of the EV supply chain and the domestic green initiatives will likely be strong counters to normal industrialization patterns.

Ag with kids said:

---

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

Manhattan said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

You're taking new tech vs long established tech. With ICE, it's about small improvements now - the big problems were worked out over 100+ years...EVs are where ICE was much earlier its evolution so it has much more room for improvement.

---

Exactly. Wake me when they get there. And the electric grid can support them.

---

This is the biggest issue IMHO...

Especially with the enviros and their anti-fossil fuel views. It will make it hard to build out the necessary grid power...

---

EVs will strengthen the electric grid when everyone has an 80kWh grid buffer in their driveway or people plugged in and charging can sign up for demand response programs.

The average American drives 39 miles a day, at 300Wh a mile (worse efficiency than my car) they only need 8 hours of charging per day at 120V 12A, otherwise known as a regular wall plug.

---

Everyone, huh?

See...this is why I discount a lot of the EV crowd. They live in a world that isn't actually reality.

---

Everyone who is "increasing demand on the grid." Is that better?

---

So, EVERYONE that gets an EV will get one of those in their driveway? I guess you won't get an EV. And neither will people that live in apartments. Or many rural people (I used to park about 30 yards from my house for 20 years)...

The reality is there will be a subset of EV owners that might do that. The rest will be an additional load on an already taxed grid.

---

If they aren't plugged in then they aren't pulling from the grid, if they are on fast chargers then they are capable of instantaneous demand response, or feeding the grid, it's part of the CCS spec.


The ability to immediately shed 250kW even for a few seconds that won't affect the EV driver is massive for the grid.

Ag with kids said:

---

Teslag said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Yeah it seems to me that with every car company in the world wanting to transition to EVs that components would go up based on demand.

---

No...Increased demand means prices go DOWN! Don't you understand economics?

---

Ya, that's why flat panel TV's are still $15,000 like they were in 2002

---

The components for EVs are a little more scarce than HDTV components...

But fair enough.

---

CATL packs are so cheap Tesla is buying them.

Ag with kids said:

---

Teslag said:

---

Ag with kids said:

---

techno-ag said:

---

aggiehawg said:

---

Quote:

---

I think it's more likely that EV adoption drives down battery manufacturing costs, which reduces battery costs, which opens up the opportunity for grid and residential battery back ups, which makes the grid more efficient, which drives down the total cost of electricity.

---

What? How? I am certainly not an electrical engineer but really not following the logic there.

---

Yeah it seems to me that with every car company in the world wanting to transition to EVs that components would go up based on demand.

---

No...Increased demand means prices go DOWN! Don't you understand economics?

---

Ya, that's why flat panel TV's are still $15,000 like they were in 2002

---

The components for EVs are a little more scarce than HDTV components...

But fair enough.

---

The components for lcd panels were scarce in 2002

Every manufactured product has what is called a learning curve. It is a predictor of cost reductions, the manner in which a product is reduced is unique to each product and the rate at which a product's cost is reduced is different for each product. The rate of reduction is described as a percentage reduction for every cumulative doubling of production.

I believe the rate of reduction for automobiles was 12% for every cumulative doubling, with the basis of comparison being a unit of horsepower (since vehicles have improved over time, and therefore in absolute terms have increased in price, but in relative terms has reduced in price). The thing is that automobiles have been made for over a hundred years, billions have been manufactured and only 10's of millions are manufactured every year, which means it takes decades for a cumulative doubling of gas vehicle production.

For lithium batteries the learning curve is understood to be approximately 24% for cylindrical cells (the cells Tesla uses in its vehicles), and one year of EV production right now exceeds the total cumulative production prior to the introduction of the Model S. The learning rate is relatively fixed, the doubling rate is variable based upon adoption. The doubling rate for lithium batteries slowed to a crawl in the early 2010's, because the use of batteries was low relative to the total historical production. That changed when the cost reduced to a point that made them usable in electric vehicles which increased the doubling rate again. A single standard range Model 3 uses as much battery storage as ~1,300 laptops.


You'll see the doubling rate hold fairly strong with lithium batteries as the cost reductions open up the possibility of grid scale storage (already in its ramping stage, Tesla has a 10,000 unit production facility in Lathrop, equivalent to ~500,000 EVs worth of batteries, they will be opening more of these facilities as each one reaches capacity) and energy density gains will open up utilization in airplanes and boats.


Point being many of you dramatically underestimate how quickly the cost of electric vehicles will reduce, and how those reductions open up the opportunity to create EVs with ranges in the 600 mile range, reducing the impact of slow charging rates and those charging rates are likewise improving.

Quote:

---

If they aren't plugged in then they aren't pulling from the grid, if they are on fast chargers then they are capable of instantaneous demand response, or feeding the grid, it's part of the CCS spec.


The ability to immediately shed 250kW even for a few seconds that won't affect the EV driver is massive for the grid.

---

Sorry for being not educated in electrical engineering nor civil engineering on how that would actually make sense.

Explain like I am five years old, please.

Supply side is no more stagnant than demand side. In the in between is how much it costs to produce something, which pretty universally goes down as things are manufactured.

There is speculation that lithium will actually be in excess of demand over the next couple of years.

Quote:

---

Point being many of you dramatically underestimate how quickly the cost of electric vehicles will reduce, and how those reductions open up the opportunity to create EVs with ranges in the 600 mile range, reducing the impact of slow charging rates and those charging rates are likewise improving.

---

600 miles between charges? Okay, I'll definitely reconsider.

Now to towing capacity. Our Kubota tractor needs to be loaded onto a sixteen foot trailer and taken 40 miles away to be fixed. When can an EV do that?

The grid needs to be at 60HZ. The more power used (demand), the more needs to be generated or the frequency goes down which is bad.

Generation doesn't come up as fast as demand, so having demand you can immediately turn off with no consequences is extremely valuable for the grid. (You can't just turn off refrigeration at a food distribution warehouse, or stop a continuous process at a chemical plant).

But if someone saves a few bucks while fast charging their car for stopping for 30 seconds or five minutes they won't care, and if you do care, there will be charging stations not enrolled in demand response.

Most charging will be done at night with just a few kW, we have so much power at night that energy prices have gone negative before.

Cybertruck is supposed to be capable of a 500 mile range for the top end model with a ~50% reduction in range when towing. So for that particular trip, probably in the next couple of years, but towing in general I don't see being a realistic option for EVs for years. Maybe by the late 2020's early 2030's? For towing I think you need 500 mile range, 50% reduction when towing and 15 minute charge times, which is physically possible and you could probably build that vehicle today it would just be obscenely expensive.

I like EVs today, but mostly as commuter/short road trip vehicles. As the distribution of charging stations improves, charging rates improve, and battery densities improve they become a way more compelling option.

Right now gas vehicles are the better option for the majority of people. In 5 years I think EVs will surpass them due to cost reductions/efficiency and charging improvements, in 20 years I think gas as a new vehicle will likely be reserved for hobbyists/enthusiasts and heavy machinery/industrial applications.

I don't make arguments for EVs in the here and now, I just think they very clearly project as the superior technology over time. I don't care what anyone drives. I drive a V8 F-150 that I get 14 mpg on average with.

hph6203 said:

---

Cybertruck is supposed to be capable of a 500 mile range for the top end model with a ~50% reduction in range when towing. So for that particular trip, probably in the next couple of years, but towing in general I don't see being a realistic option for EVs for years. Maybe by the late 2020's early 2030's? For towing I think you need 500 mile range, 50% reduction when towing and 15 minute charge times, which is physically possible and you could probably build that vehicle today it would just be obscenely expensive.

I like EVs today, but mostly as commuter/short road trip vehicles. As the distribution of charging stations improves, charging rates improve, and battery densities improve they become a way more compelling option.

Right now gas vehicles are the better option for the majority of people. In 5 years I think EVs will surpass them due to cost reductions/efficiency and charging improvements, in 20 years I think gas as a new vehicle will likely be reserved for hobbyists/enthusiasts and heavy machinery/industrial applications.

I don't make arguments for EVs in the here and now, I just think they very clearly project as the superior technology over time. I don't care what anyone drives. I drive a V8 F-150 that I get 14 mpg on average with.

---

Well thats depressing.

Manhattan said:

---

The grid needs to be at 60HZ. The more power used (demand), the more needs to be generated or the frequency goes down which is bad.

Generation doesn't come up as fast as demand, so having demand you can immediately turn off with no consequences is extremely valuable for the grid. (You can't just turn off refrigeration at a food distribution warehouse, or stop a continuous process at a chemical plant).

But if someone saves a few bucks while fast charging their car for stopping for 30 seconds or five minutes they won't care, and if you do care, there will be charging stations not enrolled in demand response.

Most charging will be done at night with just a few kW, we have so much power at night that energy prices have gone negative before.

---

It's gonna be great!

Quote:

---

I don't make arguments for EVs in the here and now, I just think they very clearly project as the superior technology over time. I don't care what anyone drives. I drive a V8 F-150 that I get 14 mpg on average with.

---

We have a one ton to tow that trailor with the tractor on it. Started out with 1/4 ton, next was 1/2 ton. Problems with getting stuck, even with 4WD.

The Hubs got the Kubota stuck in mud in a pasture after a big rain. Took the 1/2 ton out to try to tow the tractor out. Didn't work and now that was buried up to the wheel wells.

Then he comes to me to drive the one ton truck to pull the tractor out. I managed not to get the truck buried in mud but couldn't pull it out, either.

Hubs calls the neighbor. He brings over his Cat bulldozer. He can't pull it out either.

How will those sits work with EVs?

https://www.teslarati.com/rivian-r1t-tows-semi-2023/amp/

Rivian R1T pulls out 38,000 pound semi and trailer stuck in snowy ditch