-EV incentives were reinstituted as a bail out to union labor auto manufacturers, because they were late to the realization that electric was the future and they needed the government to provide the margin so they could build their factories. Tesla would have absolutely dominated the market absent those incentives.
-As for power production, part of the benefit of producing EVs is that they drive down the cost of battery storage technologies, which increases the viability of energy production methods like solar and wind. That is part of the equation, the proliferation of additional energy production will have to occur. That is a solvable problem and an economic opportunity for someone. The market doesn't have blinders. A fraction of the global savings in transportation costs would easily pay for the additional power generation.
-That is not how supply and demand works. Manufacturers cannot reduce prices below their cost to manufacture. They have a limited capacity to reduce prices, Tesla has the pricing power and the ability to dictate price levels. ICE won't be reducing prices, EVs will be reducing prices to the point that demand saturates supply and no lower, because having demand in excess of supply is inefficient and a bad customer experience. EVs will maintain higher margins than ICE. ICE will be victims of the pricing decisions of EVs, especially Tesla, which is why you see every major auto manufacturer rapidly shifting their plans towards EVs. It is their "oh ****" moment. ICE supply will fall along with the demand reduction, their prices will not.
-It is not a fallacy of extrapolation, it is a reality of marginal production. It is a well known cost reduction curve analysis that states for every cumulative doubling of lifetime production a product reduces cost by a predictable percentage. ICE vehicles are billions of vehicles in cumulative production and their annual production is in the 60-70 million range. It takes decades for a doubling, so the cost reductions have slowed to a crawl. That's why car prices have consistently risen at around the inflation rate, when controlling for vehicle mix.
That is not the case for most of the components in an electric vehicle, which is why a Model S costs less today, and is a better vehicle by far, than it did a decade ago. While reducing prices and improving the vehicle Tesla's profit margin actually expanded.
The problem with experience curves is that you cannot predict them, you have to observe them, and we have enough data to know with reasonable certainty that EVs will be cheaper than ICE in the not distant future.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects#Wright's_law_and_the_discovery_of_the_learning_curve_effect
-The only reason I said wasn't trying to convince you to like EVs is because you repeatedly take people criticizing your statements as an attempt to convince you to adopt EVs as your future car. I don't care what you drive, I'm saying your analysis is fundamentally wrong.
-I'd also like to point out that you keep making the comparison of a used car buyer not being able to new EV like that same consumer would be able to buy a new BMW if they chose. There is no reason to discuss that a person shopping for a $15,000 car can't afford a $45,000 car. EVs compete in the $45,000 car market, because they can, not because they have to. That market offers higher margins and presently the industry is constrained by battery production, because the market didn't expect EVs to gain popularity so quickly. 4 years ago everyone was convinced Tesla was going bankrupt and now it's the most profitable mass market vehicle manufacturer on a per vehicle basis in the world.
-Drive your stick shift for the rest of your life. Absent regulation that mandates autonomous driving, which I can't see happening in our lifetime, you won't have to worry about a government entity forcing you to give it up. The market might make it hard for you to buy one in a decade or so, but you might be able to pay an absurd premium to buy one.
-As for power production, part of the benefit of producing EVs is that they drive down the cost of battery storage technologies, which increases the viability of energy production methods like solar and wind. That is part of the equation, the proliferation of additional energy production will have to occur. That is a solvable problem and an economic opportunity for someone. The market doesn't have blinders. A fraction of the global savings in transportation costs would easily pay for the additional power generation.
-That is not how supply and demand works. Manufacturers cannot reduce prices below their cost to manufacture. They have a limited capacity to reduce prices, Tesla has the pricing power and the ability to dictate price levels. ICE won't be reducing prices, EVs will be reducing prices to the point that demand saturates supply and no lower, because having demand in excess of supply is inefficient and a bad customer experience. EVs will maintain higher margins than ICE. ICE will be victims of the pricing decisions of EVs, especially Tesla, which is why you see every major auto manufacturer rapidly shifting their plans towards EVs. It is their "oh ****" moment. ICE supply will fall along with the demand reduction, their prices will not.
-It is not a fallacy of extrapolation, it is a reality of marginal production. It is a well known cost reduction curve analysis that states for every cumulative doubling of lifetime production a product reduces cost by a predictable percentage. ICE vehicles are billions of vehicles in cumulative production and their annual production is in the 60-70 million range. It takes decades for a doubling, so the cost reductions have slowed to a crawl. That's why car prices have consistently risen at around the inflation rate, when controlling for vehicle mix.
That is not the case for most of the components in an electric vehicle, which is why a Model S costs less today, and is a better vehicle by far, than it did a decade ago. While reducing prices and improving the vehicle Tesla's profit margin actually expanded.
The problem with experience curves is that you cannot predict them, you have to observe them, and we have enough data to know with reasonable certainty that EVs will be cheaper than ICE in the not distant future.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effects#Wright's_law_and_the_discovery_of_the_learning_curve_effect
-The only reason I said wasn't trying to convince you to like EVs is because you repeatedly take people criticizing your statements as an attempt to convince you to adopt EVs as your future car. I don't care what you drive, I'm saying your analysis is fundamentally wrong.
-I'd also like to point out that you keep making the comparison of a used car buyer not being able to new EV like that same consumer would be able to buy a new BMW if they chose. There is no reason to discuss that a person shopping for a $15,000 car can't afford a $45,000 car. EVs compete in the $45,000 car market, because they can, not because they have to. That market offers higher margins and presently the industry is constrained by battery production, because the market didn't expect EVs to gain popularity so quickly. 4 years ago everyone was convinced Tesla was going bankrupt and now it's the most profitable mass market vehicle manufacturer on a per vehicle basis in the world.
-Drive your stick shift for the rest of your life. Absent regulation that mandates autonomous driving, which I can't see happening in our lifetime, you won't have to worry about a government entity forcing you to give it up. The market might make it hard for you to buy one in a decade or so, but you might be able to pay an absurd premium to buy one.
