Tesla is Finished

109,281 Views | 1566 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by notex
hph6203
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Stop thinking in terms that 100% of people are going to be driving an EV tomorrow and most of your concerns sound incredibly trivial. An EV is not a phone. It has multiple days of driving in its batteries. A cell phone is a silly comparison.

The EV mandates are doing nothing to drive adoption.
Emissions standards are driving some additional costs, but in the long term they're going to be an inconsequential factor.

EV credits are unnecessary to drive adoption, they're a payout to unions, because EVs are inevitable.
Medaggie
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EV credits initially put in to push the green adoption which essentially kept Tsla afloat. The current EV credits have little to do with TSLA but more to save the legacy ICE companies.

I agree with whoever says that the government should stay out of EV vs ICE and let the market dictate the winner. But I hope the anti EV crowd realize that all of the governmental push is to help save legacy ICE and help them catch/squash Tsla. Its all about saving the unions. Everything the gov does is to bail out legacy ICE and their 800lb union anchor. If not for government intervention, the capitalistic market would have spoken with GM/Stellantis and likely Ford being bankrupt thus losing their union votes.

The market has spoken and values EV many multiples more than ICE so legacy ICE realize from a stock valuation standpoint, they either move to EV or may cease to exist. All of the current gov intervention is to help ICE survive so they can convert to EV.

How obvious when JB touts GM as the leader in EV with their union backdrop when they barely sell any.
hph6203
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The initial proposed extension of the EV credit having half the credit tied to whether the vehicle was made with union labor or not is all you need to know.
nortex97
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Ol_Ag_02 said:

TexasAggiesWin said:

Musk laughing at the OP from the Super Bowl


To be fair. We're all laughing at the OP.
A LOT.

Quote:

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla shares extended their breakneck rally last Thursday to double from the lows touched in early January, helped by a rising appetite for growth and technology stocks, and signs that demand for its electric vehicles is rebounding.

The shares closed up 3% at $207.32 in New York, capping a 104% gain from their Jan. 6 intraday trough. The shares are bouncing off a 65% plunge in 2022.

Riskier growth stocks, which were beaten down hard last year amid concerns about rising interest rates and a recession, have made a strong comeback in 2023 as optimism about the economy has returned and investors bet the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hike cycle is nearing its end. At the same time, Tesla's own earnings last month, and a spate of positive headlines on tax credits for electric vehicles, have provided further lift to the shares of the Elon Musk-led company.



Still, Tesla's gains of 68% this year far outpace those of the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is up 13%, as well as that of the NYSE FANG+ Index, which has advanced 28% in 2023. A frenzy of speculative trading in recent weeks that has seen retail traders rush into some of their favorite stocks can explain some of that exuberance, given Tesla's popularity among individual shareholders.
Who?mikejones!
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Yall see that super bowl ad hit piece against telsa?

The guy who paid for it has a real bone to pick

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/12/business/super-bowl-ad-tesla-full-self-driving/index.html

hph6203
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Guy intentionally forces the software to fail by powering through any attempts by the car to stop by hitting the accelerator.

Shocker of all shockers he has his own self driving software system he's invested in.

He's a real piece.
Definitely Not A Cop
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So a real life Michael Scott


Ag with kids
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aggievaulter07 said:

Ag with kids said:

Teslag said:

No one on this thread is suggesting that EV's are good choice for 100% of the population. For many, they are.
And that's fine.

But, in some places they're being mandated. So, those people won't get the choice of ICE.

That is a HUGE mistake.

Everyone that wants one should get the opportunity to buy one - without my tax dollars giving them a tax exemption/credit.


That's not completely true. There's nuance here that you absolutists refuse to acknowledge.
After 2035 all new vehicles sold have to be EVs in CA. That's a mandate.

And did you not read my last sentence? I don't care if you get EVs. Just without my monetary help.
Ag with kids
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Medaggie said:

EV credits initially put in to push the green adoption which essentially kept Tsla afloat. The current EV credits have little to do with TSLA but more to save the legacy ICE companies.

I agree with whoever says that the government should stay out of EV vs ICE and let the market dictate the winner. But I hope the anti EV crowd realize that all of the governmental push is to help save legacy ICE and help them catch/squash Tsla. Its all about saving the unions. Everything the gov does is to bail out legacy ICE and their 800lb union anchor. If not for government intervention, the capitalistic market would have spoken with GM/Stellantis and likely Ford being bankrupt thus losing their union votes.

The market has spoken and values EV many multiples more than ICE so legacy ICE realize from a stock valuation standpoint, they either move to EV or may cease to exist. All of the current gov intervention is to help ICE survive so they can convert to EV.

How obvious when JB touts GM as the leader in EV with their union backdrop when they barely sell any.
Last year there were 800k EVs sold.

There were 13.8M automobiles sold. So, ICE vehicles outnumber by a LARGE margin. That's what the market has chosen.

They're all making EVs because of the govt push for them. And to get a piece of that pie.

I like Tesla (well, the company...I don't really like the look of their vehicles but that's just personal preference only).
Teslag
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What percentage of EV's went unsold in the market? Basically, were their percentage of sales a function of supply constraint or demand constraint?
aggievaulter07
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Quote:

There were 13.8M automobiles sold. So, ICE vehicles outnumber by a LARGE margin. That's what the market has chosen.


I don't understand why I have to keep repeating this. Stop acting as if this thing is a static thing that came and went. It's disingenuous to act as though just because everyone didn't drop their ICE vehicles for EVs all at the exact same time, that the market already chose. EV sales have been increasing exponentially with AND without Tax Credits, and they look to be accelerating for the foreseeable future, not slowing down.

The market hasn't "chosen" ICE. But, the market appears to be in the process of choosing EVs at an increasing rate.
aggievaulter07
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Quote:

Last year there were 800k EVs sold.


Weird how Tesla sold half a million more than that by themselves. Where do you get your numbers?

From CNET:


Quote:

This brings Tesla's total deliveries in 2022 to 1.31 million cars, which is a record high for the brand and 40% growth year-over-year

Medaggie
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Ag with kids said:

Medaggie said:

EV credits initially put in to push the green adoption which essentially kept Tsla afloat. The current EV credits have little to do with TSLA but more to save the legacy ICE companies.

I agree with whoever says that the government should stay out of EV vs ICE and let the market dictate the winner. But I hope the anti EV crowd realize that all of the governmental push is to help save legacy ICE and help them catch/squash Tsla. Its all about saving the unions. Everything the gov does is to bail out legacy ICE and their 800lb union anchor. If not for government intervention, the capitalistic market would have spoken with GM/Stellantis and likely Ford being bankrupt thus losing their union votes.

The market has spoken and values EV many multiples more than ICE so legacy ICE realize from a stock valuation standpoint, they either move to EV or may cease to exist. All of the current gov intervention is to help ICE survive so they can convert to EV.

How obvious when JB touts GM as the leader in EV with their union backdrop when they barely sell any.
Last year there were 800k EVs sold.

There were 13.8M automobiles sold. So, ICE vehicles outnumber by a LARGE margin. That's what the market has chosen.

They're all making EVs because of the govt push for them. And to get a piece of that pie.

I like Tesla (well, the company...I don't really like the look of their vehicles but that's just personal preference only).
You didn't even read what I wrote and just cherry picked a data point to argue otherwise.

I said the market has spoken and EVs are valued multiples more than ICE which is completely true. Look at EV only makers PE vs ICE which is many folds greater. Lucid has 1/3 of Ford's Market cap and bleeding money with minuscule sales vs Ford that actually makes money. Tesla Forward PE is 8x greater than Ford. With larger market cap comes with greater flexibility to raise money for expansion.

Thus, almost all legacy ICE is moving towards EV in some form to increase their market cap/valuation.

The reason ICE greatly outnumbers EV is the EV capacity with most being sold out. Your 800K number is blatantly incorrect.
smitshot
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Ag with kids said:

Medaggie said:

EV credits initially put in to push the green adoption which essentially kept Tsla afloat. The current EV credits have little to do with TSLA but more to save the legacy ICE companies.

I agree with whoever says that the government should stay out of EV vs ICE and let the market dictate the winner. But I hope the anti EV crowd realize that all of the governmental push is to help save legacy ICE and help them catch/squash Tsla. Its all about saving the unions. Everything the gov does is to bail out legacy ICE and their 800lb union anchor. If not for government intervention, the capitalistic market would have spoken with GM/Stellantis and likely Ford being bankrupt thus losing their union votes.

The market has spoken and values EV many multiples more than ICE so legacy ICE realize from a stock valuation standpoint, they either move to EV or may cease to exist. All of the current gov intervention is to help ICE survive so they can convert to EV.

How obvious when JB touts GM as the leader in EV with their union backdrop when they barely sell any.
Last year there were 800k EVs sold.

There were 13.8M automobiles sold. So, ICE vehicles outnumber by a LARGE margin. That's what the market has chosen.

They're all making EVs because of the govt push for them. And to get a piece of that pie.

I like Tesla (well, the company...I don't really like the look of their vehicles but that's just personal preference only).


Worldwide there were 66 million cars sold in 2022. Of those 7.8 million were EV's. A little over 10% market share. Up 68% from the prior year. Projected up another 70% in 2023. Yes EV's pretty much had to start somewhere around 0 so ICE still "dominates". But the gain in market share around the world is staggering. For the month of December Germany actually sold more EV's than ICE cars. In Australia the Tesla Model 3 was the best selling midsize car of ANY auto's including ICE. The Toyota Camry led for 28 years until the Model 3 surpassed them last year with projections of the Model Y being the top selling auto of any kind in 2023. Tesla and EV's globally are just getting started folks.

fka ftc
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So despite mandates, incentives, tax breaks, constant advertising, news stories, fanboi-ing, neverending banter on new battery tech, new motors, just you wait... despite a decade of all that, EVs have still not cracked 10% acceptance (even taking the higher figure above) and its magically going to bolt to 10 times market side in another 10 years?

And let's say magically all the improvements come to fruition and tech improves and everyone just loves their EVs and there are no supply chain constraints on the cars, it would take 15 to 20 to 25 years or more to upgrade the electrical grid.

Want to string new transmission lines across the sierra nevada or through the Everglades?? Thats not environmentally friendly now is it?

Hence, EVs will settle out at 20-25% of the market. Book it.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
fka ftc
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aggievaulter07
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These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...
Ag with kids
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aggievaulter07 said:


Quote:

Last year there were 800k EVs sold.


Weird how Tesla sold half a million more than that by themselves. Where do you get your numbers?

From CNET:


Quote:

This brings Tesla's total deliveries in 2022 to 1.31 million cars, which is a record high for the brand and 40% growth year-over-year


https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/in-a-down-market-ev-sales-soar-to-new-record/#:~:text=Still%2C%20even%20with%20high%20prices,increase%20of%2065%25%20versus%202021.

Quote:

Still, even with high prices, EV sales in the U.S. in 2022 soared, as new models and high interest pushed sales volumes past 800,000 for the first time, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates, an increase of 65% versus 2021.

https://www.yahoo.com/video/number-electric-vehicles-us-roads-183000357.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAlZ76gE-l5dJ4QTssKD09oyeZQPM4KwQIWmDNOEuvZO-RX4kLP7nRBiIYD4vPSpG4Wub10gd0PH7Fj3c8hEHH3w8-Oov8GICQOL4I1h-GCsxa0GQMsvJbBkGyWlJ7WOEllINxuK2Eqwvdp0kj4hQADSG9WcKsBEYiMZiki6wVBc

Quote:

There are currently a total of about 1.7 million EVs on the road in the U.S compared to around 400,000 in Q2 of 2018., and that number is expected to keep growing.

Perhaps those deliveries weren't sold in 2022? Just delivered?

Even so, the EV market share is about 6%. Sure it's growing. Yay? But, it's still a small part of the market.
aggievaulter07
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Quote:

So despite mandates, incentives, tax breaks, constant advertising, news stories, fanboi-ing, neverending banter on new battery tech, new motors, just you wait... despite a decade of all that, EVs have still not cracked 10% acceptance (even taking the higher figure above) and its magically going to bolt to 10 times market side in another 10 years?
Just more of the "It hasn't happened already, so it ain't gonna happen!" ignorance.

EVs are selling as fast as they can physically roll off existing assembly lines. And more factories are ramping up, more are under construction, and even more are in the planning phase.

The only thing limiting EV sales right now, is manufacturing capacity, which is growing by the day/quarter/year.
aggievaulter07
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Quote:

Even so, the EV market share is about 6%. Sure it's growing. Yay? But, it's still a small part of the market.
Ex. Po. Nen. Tially.



EDIT: Source: https://solutions.borderstates.com/electric-vehicle-adoption-trends/

Really wish this was updated with 2022 numbers. Spoiler Alert: Adoption didn't slow. It accelerated.

fka ftc
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aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...
So I am being stubborn and you are being what... open-minded?

You "argue" like my wife - you think your opinion is truth and fact when it is merely your opinion, unless you have been to the future in which case why are you wasting time on TexAgs.

My opinion is every bit as valid as yours and, in my opinion, much more accurate and unbiased.
"The absence of the word accountability is not the same as wanting no accountability" -unknown

"You can never go wrong by staying silent if there is nothing apt to say" -Walter Isaacson
Ag with kids
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aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...
Now THIS is funny.

Look...EVs are going to grow. Ok. Great? TSLA is a great company. Ok. Great.

Stating that they're a small part of the market is just a fact. Even if it's growing.

And a significant part of that growth is being pushed by governments, so market interference.

I just find it interesting that anytime a potential roadblock to adoption is brought up, the roadblock is handwaved away. If y'all would at least acknowledge that there ARE roadblocks, you'd seem a little more reasonable.
aggievaulter07
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fka ftc said:

aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...
So I am being stubborn and you are being what... open-minded?

You "argue" like my wife - you think your opinion is truth and fact when it is merely your opinion, unless you have been to the future in which case why are you wasting time on TexAgs.

My opinion is every bit as valid as yours and, in my opinion, much more accurate and unbiased.
The problem here is you're treating factual stats and figures that I'm sharing as if they are opinion.
Ag with kids
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fka ftc said:

aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...
So I am being stubborn and you are being what... open-minded?

You "argue" like my wife - you think your opinion is truth and fact when it is merely your opinion, unless you have been to the future in which case why are you wasting time on TexAgs.

My opinion is every bit as valid as yours and, in my opinion, much more accurate and unbiased.

You can't question someone's religion, didn't you know?
Ag with kids
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aggievaulter07 said:

Quote:

Even so, the EV market share is about 6%. Sure it's growing. Yay? But, it's still a small part of the market.
Ex. Po. Nen. Tially.



EDIT: Source: https://solutions.borderstates.com/electric-vehicle-adoption-trends/

Really wish this was updated with 2022 numbers. Spoiler Alert: Adoption didn't slow. It accelerated.


Hell, by 2030, they'll be 250% of the market!!!! Awesome.
techno-ag
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aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...
There I was, in the heart of darkest Africa. The battery was on redline and we creeped along the last few miles of jungle road, but at last we made it to the settlement, the only one for a hundred miles around.

I spent the last bit of power rolling down the window to speak to the natives who came out to greet us.

"Can you direct me to the nearest power station?" I said.

They're still laughing.
Trump will fix it.
WHOOP!'91
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I would like to consider a Tesla or other EV, but their quality ratings continue to bring up the rear in Consumer Reports and JD Power ratings. That many mechanical problems in a car without a transmission or ICE seems like a pretty bad thing.
smitshot
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aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...


I agree. It's ok to say I prefer an ICE car over an EV. I get it. But to say that EV percentages will top out at 20-25% is either being a troll or just plain (and I'm being nice here) ignorant. The world is literally going going to hit 20% next year and then I guess it will just "magically" stop growing. As every auto manufacturer on the planet is spending billions on catching Tesla by 2026. Tesla's newest gigantic factories are just starting literally starting to get ramped up. As prices have come down and Tesla announces its next-gen platform next month which will be priced more affordably to the masses, demand will continue to sky rocket without any juice from government rebates.
aggievaulter07
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WHOOP!'91 said:

I would like to consider a Tesla or other EV, but their quality ratings continue to bring up the rear in Consumer Reports and JD Power ratings. That many mechanical problems in a car without a transmission or ICE seems like a pretty bad thing.
No attitude intended here, but go look up who owns Consumer Reports...

EDIT: Sorry. I used the wrong word. Go look up who Consumer Reports "Philanthropic Partners" are...
Medaggie
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fka ftc said:


So I am being stubborn and you are being what... open-minded?

You "argue" like my wife - you think your opinion is truth and fact when it is merely your opinion, unless you have been to the future in which case why are you wasting time on TexAgs.

My opinion is every bit as valid as yours and, in my opinion, much more accurate and unbiased.
I completely agree with you. No one knows what the future holds. Debates are good when people are willing to listen to other's points, can develop their own opinions, and then be more educated for the better.

No one knows if EVs will die out in 5 yrs due to demand, grid issues, government interference, etc.

No one knows if ICE will die out in 5 yrs due to oil prices, gov mandates, consumer demand.

I am open minded to agree with many ICE points. I have an ICE and EV. Both serves its purpose and if I had only one care, it would definitely be an ICE.

There are many reasons I would not get an EV including higher MSRP, not having a high amp home charger, live in a major city with available super chargers, have Tsla auto repair and body shop everywhere, live in the upper north due to range degredation.
Medaggie
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WHOOP!'91 said:

I would like to consider a Tesla or other EV, but their quality ratings continue to bring up the rear in Consumer Reports and JD Power ratings. That many mechanical problems in a car without a transmission or ICE seems like a pretty bad thing.
My experience with Tesla is much better than any ICE I have owned. I have no idea what the JD power ratings look at for mechanical problems/build quality. I have had my Y for 3 yrs and 70K miles. I have brought my car in twice for maintenance. Once for a misaligned trunk at delivery and another suspension ball bearing defect. The ball bearing issue was out of warranty but was much cheaper to replace than anything on my BMW.

I do see some minor alignment and possible paint issues but it doesn't bother me b/c I don't look too closely AND after 10K miles, there are paint issues no matter what which would drive me crazy if I were type A.

What is interesting is eventhough TSLA rates at the bottom for build quality, they are top rated for consumer satisfaction. What this tells me is the build quality issues are minor that most people don't care/see and the benefits of a Tsla greatly outweighs the minor build quality issues.

I put more stock on consumer satisfaction than build quality ratings as satisfaction is what really matters.
Medaggie
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smitshot said:

aggievaulter07 said:

These guys will never change their line of thinking, regardless how many times we have to correct their false assumptions, and incorrect numbers with real data, stats, and information.

Their heels are dug in, bros.

You know what they say...

You can lead an old ICE head to water...


I agree. It's ok to say I prefer an ICE car over an EV. I get it. But to say that EV percentages will top out at 20-25% is either being a troll or just plain (and I'm being nice here) ignorant. The world is literally going going to hit 20% next year and then I guess it will just "magically" stop growing. As every auto manufacturer on the planet is spending billions on catching Tesla by 2026. Tesla's newest gigantic factories are just starting literally starting to get ramped up. As prices have come down and Tesla announces its next-gen platform next month which will be priced more affordably to the masses, demand will continue to sky rocket without any juice from government rebates.
The 20-25% is all speculation and something not even worth arguing about as it becomes circular without any hard evidence on either side.

I do think that if battery does not limit production, EV will eventually surpass ICE by the end of this decade. Almost every automaker is converting their ICE brand to EV brand. Look at the SB commercials and you can see this. Even the high end sports performance V12 makers are trending towards EV. Hard to be a high end sports care when you are slower than a Model S at 1/10th the price.
aggievaulter07
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AG
Quote:

You can't question someone's religion, didn't you know?
Teslag
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Do you think that EV's current market share now is capped by demand or supply?
smitshot
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WHOOP!'91 said:

I would like to consider a Tesla or other EV, but their quality ratings continue to bring up the rear in Consumer Reports and JD Power ratings. That many mechanical problems in a car without a transmission or ICE seems like a pretty bad thing.


Consumer reports and JD Powers are bought and paid for by big legacy auto. Tesla donates zero to marketing. It's extremely difficult to find any reliable source these days. I suggest speaking to as many people as you can that have owned a Tesla since 2018.

Just last month the Model Y scored the highest safety test scores ever recorded. But you won't hear about that from our media. In California last month a Tesla fell 125 feet off a rocky cliff and the entire family of 4 survived. News reports at the scene and interviews with the sheriff being shocked that they survived give more evidence that the report was real.

If you want a perfect fit and finish car on the outside go buy an Audi. Tesla is not there yet. You might find the left qtr panel gap is 1/16 of an inch wider than on the right. They are getting better every year. But under the cover - the actual motors themselves, drive train, battery management systems, performance is outstanding. If it's really important to you don't just listen to the reports or even me - go drive one. Come back and report your experience.
 
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