Probably not. From Kavanaugh's concurrence:
Quote:
When precisely should the Court overrule an erroneous constitutional precedent? The history of stare decisis in this Court establishes that a constitutional precedent maybe overruled only when (i) the prior decision is not just wrong, but is egregiously wrong, (ii) the prior decision has caused significant negative jurisprudential or real-world consequences, and (iii) overruling the prior decision would not unduly upset legitimate reliance interests. See Ramos v. Louisiana, 590 U. S. ___, ______ (2020) (KAVANAUGH, J., concurring in part) (slip op., at 78).
Overturning
Obergfell or
Lawrence v. Texas (both of which are wrong) would have a ton of reliance consequences. Even if you overturned
Lawrence, there would be a lot of states that would not outlaw gay sex and sanction gay marriage, so when those gay couples move to states that do not, you have a full faith and credit problem. Essentially, once one state legalized gay marriage, it was virtually inevitable that other states would at least be required to recognize marriage licenses from those states, if not grant them outright.