Labor shortage. Where did they go?

7,112 Views | 78 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by DannyDuberstein
GenericAggie
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11:10p, 10/23/21
AG
At the IHOP on Hwy 6 after the game. The other IHOP going south on Hwy 6 is closed. This one has shortened hours. We walk in to see the restaurant 1/2 empty because people keep coming and leaving. 2 waitresses. 2 people in the kitchen and I think they're both managers.

Where are the workers? How are people making money if they're not working. Stimulus checks stopped a year ago.

Seriously - WTF is going on.

Separately, I work in the tech industry and it's a mess as well. Our applications are down 50% YOY. People barely respond to reach outs on LinkedIN. We're about to grow headcount 25%-30% and I'm not clear how we're going to do it.

Our customers ALL say the same thing. They can't find people. It's BIZARRE.

It's a huge portion of the workforce has disappeared. The hospitality industry - hotels, restaurants specifically, are struggling to re-hire people they laid off.

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aggiecouch
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11:13p, 10/23/21
Rona got em all
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ttu_85
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In reply to GenericAggie • 11:15p, 10/23/21
GenericAggie said:
At the IHOP on Hwy 6 after the game. The other IHOP going south on Hwy 6 is closed. This one has shortened hours. We walk in to see the restaurant 1/2 empty because people keep coming and leaving. 2 waitresses. 2 people in the kitchen and I think they're both managers.

Where are the workers? How are people making money if they're not working. Stimulus checks stopped a year ago.

Seriously - WTF is going on.

Separately, I work in the tech industry and it's a mess as well. Our applications are down 50% YOY. People barely respond to reach outs on LinkedIN. We're about to grow headcount 25%-30% and I'm not clear how we're going to do it.

Our customers ALL say the same thing. They can't find people. It's BIZARRE.

It's a huge portion of the workforce has disappeared. The hospitality industry - hotels, restaurants specifically, are struggling to re-hire people they laid off.

Its the same in Huntsville, AL. Unemployment rate is 2.4%. Many business hurting from a lack of help in all sectors. We cant find any qualified people
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Cant Think of a Name
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11:19p, 10/23/21
AG
I dont know whats causing it, because i thought extra unemployment benefits ended...

But i know what will fix it....

Lets require vaccine mandates across the board due to OSHA.

That should fix it!
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WestTexasAg
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11:20p, 10/23/21
AG
I don't get it either. Labor shortages everywhere.
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WestAustinAg
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11:27p, 10/23/21
AG
Workers by the millions left the service industry never to return.

I don't know why the tech industry is having the same issue salaries are high and companies are profitable and growing.
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flashplayer
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11:28p, 10/23/21
AG
Wife and I ponder this daily. Makes no sense. Are people just not paying rent anywhere and so they don't need an income?

Lots of Boomers retiring is one factor we are convinced, but that can't begin to explain more than a sliver of the problem.

People sandbagging it off of the advance child tax credit payments?

People from foreign states relocate to TX with their Monopoly money so they don't need to work here right away AND leave a job behind in the state they left??? That actually seems like one plausible factor.

A little of all that plus a bunch of other things converging all at once. This will get ugly.
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AggiEE
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In reply to WestAustinAg • 11:30p, 10/23/21
WestAustinAg said:
Workers by the millions left the service industry never to return.

I don't know why the tech industry is having the same issue salaries are high and companies are profitable and growing.
No one has the qualifications for these jobs
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Sully Dog
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11:32p, 10/23/21
Just my opinion:
  • A lot of people who were borderline on retiring; went ahead and retired
  • A lot of college/recent college grads have covid money and student loans don't have to be repayed until the end of Feb. 1/2 of all student loans nation wide are currently deferred.
  • There are a handful of people who watch too much CNN84
  • There are people who have been run off by vaccine mandates

Collectively that's a lot of people.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
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LupinusTexensis
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In reply to Sully Dog • 11:35p, 10/23/21
Sully Dog said:
Just my opinion:
  • A lot of people who were borderline on retiring; went ahead and retired
  • A lot of college/recent college grads have covid money and student loans don't have to be repayed until the end of Feb. 1/2 of all student loans nation wide are currently deferred.
  • There are a handful of people who watch too much CNN84
  • There are people who have been run off by vaccine mandates

Collectively that's a lot of people.


Besides the retirees, I still don't understand how people can just not work and have enough to survive?
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javajaws
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In reply to Sully Dog • 11:36p, 10/23/21
AG
Sully Dog said:
Just my opinion:
  • A lot of people who were borderline on retiring; went ahead and retired
  • A lot of college/recent college grads have covid money and student loans don't have to be repayed until the end of Feb. 1/2 of all student loans nation wide are currently deferred.
  • There are a handful of people who watch too much CNN84
  • There are people who have been run off by vaccine mandates

Collectively that's a lot of people.
Also some 2 worker households went down to 1: More women staying home to watch their kids at home post COVID.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
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Sully Dog
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11:42p, 10/23/21
One more thing:
The Feds money pumping scheme has driven up the SP500 something like 300% in the last decade and home values have seen similar inflation.

I live not too far from the resort town of Truckee California where home values have been seeing a >10% year over year increase for the last few years. This is being driven by the real estate bubbles in LA and the Bay. There are alot of retired 40 year/olds would bought 200,000 condos in their 20s and sold them for $3 M at the pandemic.

My neighbors house just listed for $1.1M. He bought it 8 years ago for $350K
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
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Sully Dog
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In reply to LupinusTexensis • 11:43p, 10/23/21
The college kids are sitting on the sideline waiting or playing. They have low expenses and don't have to pay back their debt.
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
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txyaloo
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In reply to AggiEE • 11:44p, 10/23/21
AG
AggiEE said:
WestAustinAg said:
Workers by the millions left the service industry never to return.

I don't know why the tech industry is having the same issue salaries are high and companies are profitable and growing.
No one has the qualifications for these jobs
I disagree. A big part of the issue is the recruiting system is terribly broken. ATS are garbage. Job descriptions are garbage. Recruiters are garbage.

I'm starting a new job Monday. The req was for a generic program manager role. The actual role is pretty specialized. If I didn't have a referral and knowledge of the role, I never would have even had an interview. I've been casually applying for jobs over the last 3 months. I see the same reqs posted week after week. Jobs I'm well qualified for that doesn't even garner a pre-screen from a recruiter.

I flat out had one recruiter at a fintech start-up tell me he blindly rejected my resume b/c I had no startup experience even though I was a referral w/10 years of specialized experience in their industry working with the customer base they were trying to grow.

It's insane
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WestAustinAg
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11:45p, 10/23/21
AG
You're also describing most of Austin.
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Pookers
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In reply to txyaloo • 12:01a, 10/24/21
AG
txyaloo said:
AggiEE said:
WestAustinAg said:
Workers by the millions left the service industry never to return.

I don't know why the tech industry is having the same issue salaries are high and companies are profitable and growing.
No one has the qualifications for these jobs
I disagree. A big part of the issue is the recruiting system is terribly broken. ATS are garbage. Job descriptions are garbage. Recruiters are garbage.

I'm starting a new job Monday. The req was for a generic program manager role. The actual role is pretty specialized. If I didn't have a referral and knowledge of the role, I never would have even had an interview. I've been casually applying for jobs over the last 3 months. I see the same reqs posted week after week. Jobs I'm well qualified for that doesn't even garner a pre-screen from a recruiter.

I flat out had one recruiter at a fintech start-up tell me he blindly rejected my resume b/c I had no startup experience even though I was a referral w/10 years of specialized experience in their industry working with the customer base they were trying to grow.

It's insane
This is part of the H1B scam. They post unrealistic / impossible job requirements online and then after a while of not finding "qualified" US based applicants they bring in H1B visas.
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DrSocrates
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12:06a, 10/24/21
My random thought is couples are realizing that it takes a minimum wage pay check to put a child in daycare & more for each kid so why not have 1 parent stay home and raise the child or children.

Call it the great reset. Past generation has daddy working and momma raising the kids at home. Now momma or daddy is choosing the role.

Just a thought.
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agwrestler
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12:16a, 10/24/21
AG
They get paid better to pick up and deliver the food than they would preparing it or serving it.

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BrazosDog02
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In reply to DrSocrates • 12:20a, 10/24/21
AG
I think you're right. I also think that people are realizing that being IN an office is largely a waste of resources and counterproductive. With the shift to remote work, your point above, and considering people are going to jobs that will accommodate both….why in the hell would you work at ihop? It all equates to what you see.
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GenericAggie
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In reply to BrazosDog02 • 12:30a, 10/24/21
AG
BrazosDog02 said:
I think you're right. I also think that people are realizing that being IN an office is largely a waste of resources and counterproductive. With the shift to remote work, your point above, and considering people are going to jobs that will accommodate both….why in the hell would you work at ihop? It all equates to what you see.


Fare enough but no one working at an ihop is working an office job?
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DrSocrates
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In reply to BrazosDog02 • 12:31a, 10/24/21
BrazosDog02 said:
I think you're right. I also think that people are realizing that being IN an office is largely a waste of resources and counterproductive. With the shift to remote work, your point above, and considering people are going to jobs that will accommodate both….why in the hell would you work at ihop? It all equates to what you see.


May the reset kids get raised right!
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DrSocrates
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In reply to GenericAggie • 12:37a, 10/24/21
GenericAggie said:
BrazosDog02 said:
I think you're right. I also think that people are realizing that being IN an office is largely a waste of resources and counterproductive. With the shift to remote work, your point above, and considering people are going to jobs that will accommodate both….why in the hell would you work at ihop? It all equates to what you see.


Fare enough but no one working at an ihop is working an office job?



But we talking flippin' burgers. Why not stay home and raise the kids? No extra car, car insurance, gas, risk......Keep in mind I'm talking 0-4 year old Jack & Jill.
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Not a Bot
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3:22a, 10/24/21
AG
I think a lot of it really is the child tax credit being paid out on a monthly basis. A lot of people making the minimum wage or close to it see that they can get by on that plus food stamps plus housing assistance, especially if they have another income from child support or a spouse. All of that adds up. They don't see the few hundred dollars a week coming in as being worth it. They would rather just stay home. Especially considering how expensive daycare is.

Childcare may actually be a big part of it, with daycares not only raising prices but also requiring so much testing, quarantining, and sending kids home if they have the sniffles. Difficult for a parent to work if no one can watch the kids and if they don't know from day to day if their kid will be able to go to daycare or not. Same thing with a lot of public schools. You don't know if your kid is going to be forced to stay home for two weeks because another kid had a second cousin two states away test positive.
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KY-AG 10
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4:16a, 10/24/21
AG
Lots of unskilled manufacturing jobs have been needed. We're up over 250 headcount this year. Bulk of hires came from service and other non manufacturing workers
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Ghost of Bisbee
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In reply to Not a Bot • 4:36a, 10/24/21
AG
I think this is giving low-skill service workers too much credit. I doubt they think in terms of how they can benefit from the system. That is over their heads, no offense to them. They are focused on paycheck to paycheck, and there are still many lending institutions out there that will extend credit to people who have no business having credit.

I think that's the biggest problem. Consumer debt crisis.
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ElKabong
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In reply to LupinusTexensis • 5:06a, 10/24/21
LupinusTexensis said:
Sully Dog said:
Just my opinion:
  • A lot of people who were borderline on retiring; went ahead and retired
  • A lot of college/recent college grads have covid money and student loans don't have to be repayed until the end of Feb. 1/2 of all student loans nation wide are currently deferred.
  • There are a handful of people who watch too much CNN84
  • There are people who have been run off by vaccine mandates

Collectively that's a lot of people.


Besides the retirees, I still don't understand how people can just not work and have enough to survive?
There are now so many ways to get support from the government. We actually have welfare advocates
that show the people how to get more welfare. One program after the other provide income assistance for housing, food, healthcare, and so on. it is unending.

Millions of illegals flooding this country for years to come to America and become the "rich" relatives
just on welfare of all sorts alone.

Cloward-Piven Strategy looks to be working as intended

Our great experiment is broken and hanging by a thread. Corrupted from within just as predicted.

We find out if the great steal of 2020 is baked in for all future elections next year in the mid-terms.

We should see a Republican tsunami. The Republicans do not give me much hope, but it is a glimmer.

If not, I think things start getting a little more interesting as we go full speed off the cliff.


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Viper16jr
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8:05a, 10/24/21
AG
Any stats on discovering the increase in crypto day traders in the past year?

I think crypto trading has filled the "temporary" void in employment from the scamdemic.

It's an evolutionary market...it may be providing a steady stream of income for some..
“We're Americans, we'd rather die on our feet, than live on our knees."
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mazag08
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8:26a, 10/24/21
AG
Service industry labor is now working on onlyfans and doing YouTube reactions.
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to Ghost of Bisbee • 8:29a, 10/24/21
Low skill, low wage workers have been gaming the system for decades. They know the social welfare system inside and out, what to say and how to game it. The women know the exact story to feed a social worker about how Joe / Jose left them, they are separated, and she has no money to feed and clothe the three kids, only one of which is his. Next thing she is getting food stamps, a housing allowance, childcare, healthcare, all the benefits (largesse) of the gigantic welfare system. This is not new. Meantime, Joe / Jose actually has a decent paying labor job and they are not separated.

The difference now is these extra benefits they are now receiving more than make up for her not working that part time service job at IHOP or Target or wherever. As a result, given the choice to not work, they take it.

This is just one of the many ways to work the system.
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Marcus Brutus
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In reply to Sully Dog • 8:29a, 10/24/21
Sully Dog said:
Just my opinion:
  • A lot of people who were borderline on retiring; went ahead and retired
  • A lot of college/recent college grads have covid money and student loans don't have to be repayed until the end of Feb. 1/2 of all student loans nation wide are currently deferred.
  • There are a handful of people who watch too much CNN84
  • There are people who have been run off by vaccine mandates

Collectively that's a lot of people.


Your first bullet I personally know some folks who did that. My managers parents were still working, didn't really need to, but called it quits once this thing hit. I guess they thought seriously about mortality and decided to spend the rest of their days on earth taking it easy.
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Rex Racer
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In reply to Pookers • 8:35a, 10/24/21
AG
Pookers said:
txyaloo said:
AggiEE said:
WestAustinAg said:
Workers by the millions left the service industry never to return.

I don't know why the tech industry is having the same issue salaries are high and companies are profitable and growing.
No one has the qualifications for these jobs
I disagree. A big part of the issue is the recruiting system is terribly broken. ATS are garbage. Job descriptions are garbage. Recruiters are garbage.

I'm starting a new job Monday. The req was for a generic program manager role. The actual role is pretty specialized. If I didn't have a referral and knowledge of the role, I never would have even had an interview. I've been casually applying for jobs over the last 3 months. I see the same reqs posted week after week. Jobs I'm well qualified for that doesn't even garner a pre-screen from a recruiter.

I flat out had one recruiter at a fintech start-up tell me he blindly rejected my resume b/c I had no startup experience even though I was a referral w/10 years of specialized experience in their industry working with the customer base they were trying to grow.

It's insane
This is part of the H1B scam. They post unrealistic / impossible job requirements online and then after a while of not finding "qualified" US based applicants they bring in H1B visas.


They don't bring them in. They already have an H1B in the job, and they are sponsoring them for permanent residency. The government requires their job be posted, and if they find a qualified citizen or permanent resident, they have to hire them. But they already have an H1B that they like who does a good job. So they have no motivation to replace them.
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BillYeoman
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8:38a, 10/24/21
Be sure to tip your servers well.

I have seen shortages at almost every restaurant I have been to the last few months.
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BillYeoman
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8:41a, 10/24/21
Another observation: restaurants were shut down for months. There was a shift in job opportunities: Uber, Instacart, Amazon drivers, etc.
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DamnGood86
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In reply to Sully Dog • 8:46a, 10/24/21
AG
Sully Dog said:
Just my opinion:
  • A lot of people who were borderline on retiring; went ahead and retired
  • A lot of college/recent college grads have covid money and student loans don't have to be repayed until the end of Feb. 1/2 of all student loans nation wide are currently deferred.
  • There are a handful of people who watch too much CNN84
  • There are people who have been run off by vaccine mandates

Collectively that's a lot of people.

This is a great partial list. Many other reason listed elsewhere in this thread. There is no one single smoking gun; the workforce is dying a death by one thousand cuts.

The catalyst was/is Covid; everything can be directly or indirectly traced to it, . You have to take into account, half the population is scared to death of Covid so those folks are not thinking or acting rationally.
You may not be a moron, but some people think you are.
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zephyr88
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In reply to WestTexasAg • 8:50a, 10/24/21
AG
WestTexasAg said:
I don't get it either. Labor shortages everywhere.
It's not like those couple of gubment handout checks kept everyone fat and happy. It probably resulted in a momentary spike in gun and widescreen television sales, but that was long ago.

Like you, I don't get it. People have bills... people have to eat... where did they go???
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