titan said:
jefe95 said:
How much longer until our adversaries challenge this leadership vacuum?
Kamala is already talking to world leaders. No way she makes a convincing case at all.
They would be smarter not to. Concentrate on doing all the more subtle and subversive stuff that it takes competent intelligence agencies and administration to pick up on or thwart. We have neither.
They would be foolish to challenge in the way where even NYT could see it. If I was them I would do all the more subtle and long term stuff. The preliminaries to Crimea is a good example of how. In China's case it wouldn't mean moving against Taiwan yet, but trying to take over members of its government like they control many Democrats (and Rinos apparently) here.
Agreed. The soft approach combined with flexing military muscles has long been China's strategy with Taiwan. Taiwan is already inextricably intertwined with China economically, and China has nothing but time on its side (absent outside interference). China is willing to play the long game knowing that at some point assimilation is inevitable, albeit after our lifetimes unless the current playbook is upended.
In the meantime sublimation of the political process, economic assimilation, threatening/bribing third party countries (like we do with sanctions) etc. are far more cost effective, less disruptive, and a far more safe means of bringing Taiwan into the Borg Collective. A Chinese military invasion, IMO, is a last case scenario only deployed when third parties (pretty much just us) try to yank Taiwan out of China's jaws.
Almost no countries diplomatically recognize Taiwan (down to 14 out of 193 UN member states). We don't recognize Taiwan, although we threatened to punish El Salvador, Dominican Republic, and Panama, when in 2017-2018 they switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing from Taipei, which amusingly only mirrors our stance since the 70's. (Rules for Thee, But not for Me - which is fine IMO because RealPolitik, ).
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/central-america-caught-china-taiwan-diplomatic-tussleQuote:
. . .
It started when El Salvador made a decision. In August, its government switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, prompting the White House to issue a statement that the change would result in a "reevaluation of our relationship with El Salvador." U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) took to Twitter several times to denounce San Salvador's move and called to cut U.S. aid.
On the other hand, this isn't something new: China has been drawing away Taiwan's diplomatic allies for years. Still, two other countries in the Americas-the Dominican Republic in May 2018 and Panama in June 2017-also switched recognition in the time since Donald Trump took over the Oval Office. On September 7, the U.S. State Department called back its top envoys from all three Latin American nations "for consultations related to recent decisions to no longer recognize Taiwan."
. . .
Anyway, I only posted this in response to you Titan because I generally pay attention to your posts and acumen, and the article reminded me of your recent post about Taiwan (and I prefer not to start threads for the most part, so this seemed like a likely place to deposit it).
https://www.yahoo.com/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.htmlQuote:
Last fall, the U.S. Air Force simulated a conflict set more than a decade in the future that began with a Chinese biological-weapon attack that swept through U.S. bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region. Then a major Chinese military exercise was used as cover for the deployment of a massive invasion force. The simulation culminated with Chinese missile strikes raining down on U.S. bases and warships in the region, and a lightning air and amphibious assault on the island of Taiwan.
. . .
Then in September in the midst of the war game, actual Chinese combat aircraft intentionally flew over the rarely crossed median line in the Taiwan Strait in the direction of Taipei an unprecedented 40 times and conducted simulated attacks on the island that Taiwan's premier called "disturbing." Amid those provocations, China's air force released a video showing a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons carrying out a simulated attack on Andersen Air Force Base on the U.S. Pacific island of Guam. The title of the Hollywood-like propaganda video was "The god of war H-6K [bomber] goes on the attack!"
In case the new U.S. administration failed to get the intended message behind all that provocative military activity, four days after President Biden took office, a large force of Chinese bombers and fighters flew past Taiwan and launched simulated missile attacks on the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group as it was sailing in international waters in the South China Sea.
. . .
Baffling Chinese analysts, Biden did not appear to notice.
