Texas now a Tossup?

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Always_Right
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10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Another day, another update. Today was a good day for Republicans for battleground states.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +32,465(-28,966)
Florida: +59,539(-113,183)
Iowa: +4,244(-57,891)
Michigan: +4,101(-101,101)
Minnesota: +461(-210,928)
Nevada: +4,360(-17,608)
North Carolina: +28,249(-146,659)
Pennsylvania: -26,905(-645,270)
Texas: +57,660(+975,813)
Wisconsin: 0(-49,980)

Kellso
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jrdaustin said:

Kellso said:

jrdaustin said:

YouBet said:

These are liberal organizations, thus they probably consider Texas to only be Dallas, Harris, Bexar, and Travis county since they have such disdain for non-urban types. In which case, it's a toss up at best for Trump and in reality probably a large loss for Trump.

We need all other counties to offset these four dumbass counties.
There was an analysis that I read somewhere that the 10 largest counties have gone Blue in the last elections, but have been significantly outnumbered by the Red margin in the remaining 244 counties.

Until the population of the top urban counties outnumber the rest of the state, Texas should easily remain a Red state.

Texas currently has a population of 29 million. The top 5 cities in Texas total about 9 million. They have a ways to go.

I'd redo your math. Taking into account Metro population

The top 5 cities in Texas account for approximately
Austin: 2.5 million
San Antonio: 2.5 million
Ft Worth: 2.5 million
Dallas: 5 million
Houston 6 million

23-24 million out of 29 million residents live in either the San Antonio, Austin, DFW, or Houston metro areas.

The big cities in Texas are the ones growing like wild fire....not the small towns. Houston, Dallas and Austin are the cities being overrun by out of state transplants bringing their small pox, and librul ideas to this great republic of ours.
I get your point, and I know my numbers are a swag; but, it's not quite that simple. The main democratic population of all those cities are in the city cores - not the greater metro areas. For example, I live in Lakeway, which is a very red community in the Austin metro area, as is Round Rock, Georgetown, Leander, etc.

I don't have time to break down the numbers into SDs and precincts, and then compare those historical voting averages with population growth in each precinct - which would be the most accurate way to project future numbers in the metro communities. That is what the pollsters SHOULD be doing.
The Republican leaning exurbs also count when considering how a metro votes.

Things have changed over the last 20 years here in Texas.

Now the city proper is almost all Democrat.
Suburbs are 50/50 between Republican/ Democrat

The Exurbs are what the suburbs were 20 years and are solidly Republican.
AgGrad99
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Quote:

The Republican leaning exurbs also count when considering how a metro votes.

Things have changed over the last 20 years here in Texas.

Now the city proper is almost all Democrat.
Suburbs are 50/50 between Republican/ Democrat

The Exurbs are what the suburbs were 20 years and are solidly Republican.

It's changed a little...but the blue is still concentrated to the city centers primarily.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#6.91/31.43/-98.14
oh no
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Biden is running on covid fear when Texas is already pretty much opened up, higher taxes, and getting rid of the oil industry. How can there possibly be that many millions of Texans that think these are good things? The orange man bad scare tactics have really brainwashed people that badly?
beerad12man
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oh no said:

Biden is running on covid fear when Texas is already pretty much opened up, higher taxes, and getting rid of the oil industry. How can there possibly be that many millions of Texans that think these are good things? The orange man bad scare tactics have really brainwashed people that badly?
Yes, they have. I know of some otherwise great, middle class working folks who want anyone but Trump. They probably couldn't even tell you any of Bidens stances. Never considered the impact of raising taxes on businesses during a pandemic, banning fracking, packing the supreme court, raising the minimum wage, potentially taxing 401ks more, etc. There are just too many that don't care, and it's sad. Policy no longer matters to many.
94chem
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Still waiting to see my first Biden commercial in Texas. Tells you all you need to know.
John The Savage
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Great_I_Am said:

10/27 Daily Update 1/2(There are 2 updates usually a day)

Another day, another update. Today was a good day for Republicans for battleground states.

Battleground States Daily Lean(Vote lead):

+ = Republican Lead
- = Democrat Lead

Arizona: +32,465(-28,966)
Florida: +59,539(-113,183)
Iowa: +4,244(-57,891)
Michigan: +4,101(-101,101)
Minnesota: +461(-210,928)
Nevada: +4,360(-17,608)
North Carolina: +28,249(-146,659)
Pennsylvania: -26,905(-645,270)
Texas: +57,660(+975,813)
Wisconsin: 0(-49,980)




I see a bunch of Dem leads. Help me understand what it means.
“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.”
#1 Jaylen Henderson Fan
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Where'd these numbers come from?
beerad12man
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The theory is that more republicans will vote in person than dems on November 3rd, who already voted early or by mail. So in theory, if it's close, it can swing to Rs pretty easily on election day. At least, that's my understanding of the optimism.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Charpie said:

Great_I_Am said:

Republicans are 975k ahead in early voting in Texas.
You can't know that


No, they are going by primary voters, of which I voted in the D primary, but voted Trump. So I count for the D number.

With that said, I'm going to offer some outrageous scenarios here that all benefit Ds.

Let's just assume 25% more Rs vote Biden than Ds vote Trump. Knock 250K off 975K to get 725K. This won't happen but I'm painting an illustration here.

Then of the 10% Indies (or no primary voting Gen public) there are currently 700K votes cast. If Biden wins 100% of them, the Rs still lead by 25K. If you average the ****ty cross tabs in the polls that favor Biden, the Indies break to Biden by 15% (won't happen, but let's run with it).

Best case right now for Biden is Rs are up by 350K IN EARLY VOTING.


I can't believe I had to spell this out for this board (wasn't aimed at you Charpie) but there ya go.
MGS
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Charpie said:

Great_I_Am said:

Republicans are 975k ahead in early voting in Texas.
You can't know that


No, they are going by primary voters, of which I voted in the D primary, but voted Trump. So I count for the D number.

With that said, I'm going to offer some outrageous scenarios here that all benefit Ds.

Let's just assume 25% more Rs vote Biden than Ds vote Trump. Knock 250K off 975K to get 725K. This won't happen but I'm painting an illustration here.

Then of the 10% Indies (or no primary voting Gen public) there are currently 700K votes cast. If Biden wins 100% of them, the Rs still lead by 25K. If you average the ****ty cross tabs in the polls that favor Biden, the Indies break to Biden by 15% (won't happen, but let's run with it).

Best case right now for Biden is Rs are up by 350K IN EARLY VOTING.


I can't believe I had to spell this out for this board (wasn't aimed at you Charpie) but there ya go.
Yeah, but did you see that poll by some community college professors in Tyler?
#1 Jaylen Henderson Fan
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Where's that info coming from?

From what I understand, Texas doesn't release that information, and a quick google search doesn't find anything about specifics of which party people voted for etc. Only polls asking people if they voted already, who they voted for.
murphyag
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American Hardwood said:

blakegrimez said:

No, they're not as enthusiastic about Biden as they are/were about Beto, but there is an important distinction.

You either love Donald Trump, or you absolutely hate him. People voting for Beto voted out of their love for him, rather than their hatred for Ted Cruz, while I'd assume a large number of people voting for Biden are voting out of their hate for the president rather than their love for Biden.

Hate compels people to act just as much as love does.
Well in this case, hate is going to have to compel more than love, cuz love didn't get Beto elected.


What I'm worried about is the number of Republicans that hate Trump and are voting Biden for that reason. I don't think Cruz has ever had that problem. I doubt any lifelong Republicans voted for Beto instead of Cruz.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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blakegrimez said:

Where's that info coming from?

From what I understand, Texas doesn't release that information, and a quick google search doesn't find anything about specifics of which party people voted for etc. Only polls asking people if they voted already, who they voted for.


Target smart aggregates data based on ballots cast and whether the voter voted in a D or R primary. If they didn't, they get lumped into a basket of Indy/Gen Election Voter (no primary)
#1 Jaylen Henderson Fan
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Yes but where is the info about which primary the voter voted in. I understand how you got your results, but I can't find ANYTHING suggesting republicans are turning out or democrats are turning out, besides exit polls.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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blakegrimez said:

Yes but where is the info about which primary the voter voted in. I understand how you got your results, but I can't find ANYTHING suggesting republicans are turning out or democrats are turning out, besides exit polls.


That's what TargetSmart states as their dat collection. I'll post Derek Ryan's email on here too so you can sift through. He runs Ryan Data and Research.


Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Here ya go ... follow the link

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/9411ad67-cc0e-4028-b4c6-5472ef16256a/Statewide_Report_Day_14.pdf
American Hardwood
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murphyag said:

American Hardwood said:

blakegrimez said:

No, they're not as enthusiastic about Biden as they are/were about Beto, but there is an important distinction.

You either love Donald Trump, or you absolutely hate him. People voting for Beto voted out of their love for him, rather than their hatred for Ted Cruz, while I'd assume a large number of people voting for Biden are voting out of their hate for the president rather than their love for Biden.

Hate compels people to act just as much as love does.
Well in this case, hate is going to have to compel more than love, cuz love didn't get Beto elected.


What I'm worried about is the number of Republicans that hate Trump and are voting Biden for that reason. I don't think Cruz has ever had that problem. I doubt any lifelong Republicans voted for Beto instead of Cruz.
The Republican Trump hate should already largely be cast in from 2016. In other words, I think most of the never-Trumpers existed in 2016 and didn't vote for him then either. I don't think Trump created that many new never-trumpers out of Trump 2016 voters that voted for him. And it sure seems like he has increased his numbers from former never-Trumpers, Independents, 2016 non-voters, and Dmeocrats. Net gain.

Cheating aside, I think the real threat is from lazy Democrat voters that thought Hillary was in the bag and didn't bother to show up. They are much more motivated now cuz TDS.
#1 Jaylen Henderson Fan
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Ah okay, I read their description for their analysis.

Texas does not release party affiliation information, so their methodology is to poll people's interests and demographic and then assume their party affiliation based on that.
aginresearch
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I was a Republican voter who did not vote Trump in 2016, now I didn't vote for Clinton but I didn't cast a vote for Trump. This year I've already cast my vote for Trump. I would have crawled across broken glass to cast my vote for Trump. I'm not enamored with his personality but he's been nails on the policy side and that's what matters. In 2016 I didn't believe he would deliver. To my surprise he delivered, bigly as he would say.

So I am anecdotal evidence of a 2016 never Trumper voting enthusiastically for Trump in 2020. There's a bunch more like me but not a whole lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but voting Biden in 2020.
bmks270
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ironmanag said:

I voted straight red but tell every text and phone call that I voted straight blue.

I am not the only one doing this.


Troll the polls.

Nov. 3 and 4th will be great.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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aginresearch said:

I was a Republican voter who did not vote Trump in 2016, now I didn't vote for Clinton but I didn't cast a vote for Trump. This year I've already cast my vote for Trump. I would have crawled across broken glass to cast my vote for Trump. I'm not enamored with his personality but he's been nails on the policy side and that's what matters. In 2016 I didn't believe he would deliver. To my surprise he delivered, bigly as he would say.

So I am anecdotal evidence of a 2016 never Trumper voting enthusiastically for Trump in 2020. There's a bunch more like me but not a whole lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but voting Biden in 2020.



You just described me to a T. I voted Johnson.

This is a culture war election for me. Neo-Democrats are abhorrent.
OaklandAg06
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But but but Texas is a toss up?!?

Gigem314
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

aginresearch said:

I was a Republican voter who did not vote Trump in 2016, now I didn't vote for Clinton but I didn't cast a vote for Trump. This year I've already cast my vote for Trump. I would have crawled across broken glass to cast my vote for Trump. I'm not enamored with his personality but he's been nails on the policy side and that's what matters. In 2016 I didn't believe he would deliver. To my surprise he delivered, bigly as he would say.

So I am anecdotal evidence of a 2016 never Trumper voting enthusiastically for Trump in 2020. There's a bunch more like me but not a whole lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but voting Biden in 2020.



You just described me to a T. I voted Johnson.

This is a culture war election for me. Neo-Democrats are abhorrent.
Describes me to a T as well.

I've never been more eager to see a President re-elected than Trump.
dermdoc
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It tells me Dallas sucks.
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94chem
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American Hardwood said:

murphyag said:

American Hardwood said:

blakegrimez said:

No, they're not as enthusiastic about Biden as they are/were about Beto, but there is an important distinction.

You either love Donald Trump, or you absolutely hate him. People voting for Beto voted out of their love for him, rather than their hatred for Ted Cruz, while I'd assume a large number of people voting for Biden are voting out of their hate for the president rather than their love for Biden.

Hate compels people to act just as much as love does.
Well in this case, hate is going to have to compel more than love, cuz love didn't get Beto elected.


What I'm worried about is the number of Republicans that hate Trump and are voting Biden for that reason. I don't think Cruz has ever had that problem. I doubt any lifelong Republicans voted for Beto instead of Cruz.
The Republican Trump hate should already largely be cast in from 2016. In other words, I think most of the never-Trumpers existed in 2016 and didn't vote for him then either. I don't think Trump created that many new never-trumpers out of Trump 2016 voters that voted for him. And it sure seems like he has increased his numbers from former never-Trumpers, Independents, 2016 non-voters, and Dmeocrats. Net gain.

Cheating aside, I think the real threat is from lazy Democrat voters that thought Hillary was in the bag and didn't bother to show up. They are much more motivated now cuz TDS.


I hate Trump even more than I did in 2016, when I voted for him (I think I did; I know I didn't vote for Hillary). And I voted for him again, this time with my teeth even more gritted.
amfta
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American Hardwood said:

TomFoolery said:

Calling Texas a toss up is a attempt to energize the Dems base to try and secure house seats and down ballot elections in particular districts... if Dems sit it out thinking their vote doesn't matter, republicans can pick up a lot more in Texas than just the electoral votes.

Look what Beto's campaign did to some of the Judge elections
In retrospect, I'm thinking Raquel Rodriguez and her ilk may have had more to do with some of these elections than Beto's coattails.
This is exactly the issue the Dems have been cheating for decades and it needs to be summarily exposed and stopped. I hope this is the election that does that if not it may be the election that locks in their ability to contiune it forever on a banana republic scale, which appears the direction they have determined to go right before our eyes.
“Death is preferable to dishonor"
RangerRick9211
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

aginresearch said:

I was a Republican voter who did not vote Trump in 2016, now I didn't vote for Clinton but I didn't cast a vote for Trump. This year I've already cast my vote for Trump. I would have crawled across broken glass to cast my vote for Trump. I'm not enamored with his personality but he's been nails on the policy side and that's what matters. In 2016 I didn't believe he would deliver. To my surprise he delivered, bigly as he would say.

So I am anecdotal evidence of a 2016 never Trumper voting enthusiastically for Trump in 2020. There's a bunch more like me but not a whole lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but voting Biden in 2020.



You just described me to a T. I voted Johnson.

This is a culture war election for me. Neo-Democrats are abhorrent.


My post history can speak my thoughts on Trump in '16. I happily voted Johnson.

I still haven't voted here in the Houston Heights. I plan to early vote on Friday to avoid actual election day.

I'm 33 years old. I'm the OG Reddit generation. Between Reddit, my blind-eye family and my progressive workplace (Big 4), I'm internet serious on an anti-hypocrisy vote for Trump.

To aptly summarize that, things have to stop. The fact that I can't even state a thought of open consideration to my in-laws or co-workers on that fact without being met with, "ooh, fascist" has me in send a message mode. Which f'ing sucks for an election. So much for vote beliefs.
RGLAG85
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THIS IS A MASSIVE DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN!

Almost every poll is run by leftist and their samplings are to achieve a desired outcome. Why? They are trying to demoralize the Trump voters and hope it causes voter suppression and they are also creating a narrative for voter fraud they are trying to commit. This way they can claim the result matches the polling, therefore it has to be believed. If nothing else, the dnc and the left is coordinated and in lock step. Problem is, anyone with a brain knows the polls have been a disaster for years now due to their inherent bias and sampling.
Thomas Jefferson: "When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government." "I prefer dangerous freedom over peaceful slavery."
Brock Slammer
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If the polls are as wrong as they were in '16, Biden wins Texas. (Error R+2.7)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton-5694.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Texas.html

Tuesday is gonna be a bloodbath. Trump killed the Republican party.
Not a Bot
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Rockdoc said:

They're doing the same thing in Texas as they are everywhere else. Trying to suppress the republican vote because that's all they've got. Not working.


They are actually trying to get out their own vote. They don't want their voters staying home thinking Trump will definitely win. They aren't going to win the state, but they are trying to prevent some house seats from flipping.
Not a Bot
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Nice user name.
Not a Bot
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Of course, a close race means more moderate Republicans who don't want to vote for Trump but don't want to see Dems win the state may get off their keister and go vote.
Always_Right
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I guess I'll just have to keep repeating this, Republicans have a 975k lead through the early voting period. Republican's picked up 55k Tuesday, if Texas is going to flip blue then they had better make some drastic inroads now.
Not a Bot
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Does that account for mail in ballots?
 
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