It's interesting that in 2016 Trump won 52-43. Lots voted third party.

No, they're not as enthusiastic about Biden as they are/were about Beto, but there is an important distinction.

You either love Donald Trump, or you absolutely hate him. People voting for Beto voted out of their love for him, rather than their hatred for Ted Cruz, while I'd assume a large number of people voting for Biden are voting out of their hate for the president rather than their love for Biden.

Hate compels people to act just as much as love does.

ironmanag said:

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I voted straight red but tell every text and phone call that I voted straight blue.

I am not the only one doing this.

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I asked myself what I'd do if I actually got a call, like right now. I would absolutely screw with their results and tell them I love Democrats.

I think most of my friends would do similar, just to throw them off. After '16, they deserve to be wrong all the time.

Already voted Trump

blakegrimez said:

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No, they're not as enthusiastic about Biden as they are/were about Beto, but there is an important distinction.

You either love Donald Trump, or you absolutely hate him. People voting for Beto voted out of their love for him, rather than their hatred for Ted Cruz, while I'd assume a large number of people voting for Biden are voting out of their hate for the president rather than their love for Biden.

Hate compels people to act just as much as love does.

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Well in this case, hate is going to have to compel more than love, cuz love didn't get Beto elected.

UncleNateFitch said:

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If Trump doesn't win Texas I'll poop slap. Straight up, you heard it here folks.

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If polls say Texas is a toss up, then I feel better about polls elsewhere.

Trump signs have outnumbered Biden signs 100 to 1 everywhere I've been. From Leander, to even North Austin, Liberty hill, my drive to the Texas coast last weekend, etc.

1999 Britney Spears is lusting for me as well. Me saying it doesn't make it anymore true.

UncleNateFitch said:

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If Trump doesn't win Texas I'll poop slap. Straight up, you heard it here folks.

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I'll poopslap with you. Via zoom of course. Deal?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

I don't think Biden is going to win Texas, but I also didn't think I'd have three coworkers confide in me that they voted Biden and then "straight ticket" R because they want things to go back to "normal"

This is purely anecdotal but I tallied 27 of my relatives, friends and coworkers who DID NOT vote Trump in 2016 that are doing so in 2020.

I voted Johnson, some just sat it out. I also voted in the D primary but voted for Trump so I would be seen as a crossover per the data.

AgBMF42 said:

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

I don't think Biden is going to win Texas, but I also didn't think I'd have three coworkers confide in me that they voted Biden and then "straight ticket" R because they want things to go back to "normal"

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Did you tell those idiots to do their research? Do they think things are going back to normal under Biden and that party? The most extreme party of our lifetime?

Can people not see that the reason it doesn't feel normal now is because of the perfect storm of covid, MSM, and an election year?

Covid is the ONLY thing that makes things feel like they aren't normal right now. Without it, we'd all be living a great life. January 2020 was the happiest, and most successful I had ever been.

black_ice said:

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UncleNateFitch said:

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If Trump doesn't win Texas I'll poop slap. Straight up, you heard it here folks.

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I'll poopslap with you. Via zoom of course. Deal?

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Fox is now calling it a toss up? NBC and Cook's Report moved it to toss up as well.

Crazy times

Where can I get toss up odds to bet on? I'd free up 6 figures to place that bet

Beerosch said:

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Where can I get toss up odds to bet on? I'd free up 6 figures to place that bet

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Trump is like -300 on my online book.

RiskManager93 said:

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Rush said it best yesterday. Stop listening to what they say, and watch what they do instead.

If Texas we're in play, Biden would be campaigning down here personally. They would be flooding the state.

They aren't.

It isn't.

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Yep. Like I said, if something is telling these polling sites that Texas is a toss up, it sure gives me a lot more confidence elsewhere. Trumps winning texas. 99% sure of that(I'll never go 100% all in on something until it's done, but I can say that with about as much assurity as anything)

Charpie said:

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Fox is now calling it a toss up? NBC and Cook's Report moved it to toss up as well.

Crazy times

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Fox and NBC are simply regurgitating the Cook Report article. An article that apparently has little to no scientific methodology behind it, by the way.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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It's interesting that in 2016 Trump won 52-43. Lots voted third party.

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A lot of Texan's didn't like how the battle between Cruz and Trump went down during the primaries and held that against Trump. That sentiment has long since passed for most and I see him winning the state with even better numbers this year.

Just went to the betting sites and predictit.... LOL at toss up. If you think it's going blue lay your money down

Exactly. One thing I hope people take away from 2016 and whatever happens in 2020 is that polls actually don't lie, but polls also don't elect the president. Your supporters have to actually show up in the ballot box. You can love Trump all you want, or love Biden all you want, but if you don't actually vote then it doesn't matter.

I'd also like to remind you that Cruz actually did worse than his polling average in 2018 and Beto did better. Long story short is that nobody should let their candidate winning or losing in polling dissuade them from voting. Like Coach Fisher preaches, don't get complacent.

I thought NBC moved them to toss up before Cooks did?

We'll find in a week or so whether Texas is a tossup.

One thing to remember is that in 2016, quite a few people voted for Trump because Trump was far more likable than Hillary -- the not HIllary vote was hardly tiny. That's not the only reason people voted against Hillary -- many people didn't like her politics any more than they liked her and considered her unfit to be President. (I don't know anyone who actually likes Hillary.)

I've read that many people find Biden far more likable than Trump. If many of those who voted for Trump because they didn't like Hillary turn around and vote for Biden as the more likable candidate, then that loss might be hardly insignificant.

In my view, this election is so screwed up that I don't see a clear winner. Biden is leading in the polls, but that doesn't mean that he will win. Trump came from behind in 2016 but that doesn't mean that he will win.

At this point, it's nothing but a muddy hog contest and either muddy hog could win. I think that we will only figure out why one or the other loses while looking at it in hindsight at which point many will claim that it was obvious all along.

Charpie said:

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I thought NBC moved them to toss up before Cooks did?

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As I stated in my OP, two of the 3 main players in the Cook report are NBC analysts. IT'S THE SAME THING!

Chicken : Egg

This is a ploy to get Trump and his team to panic and go to Texas and Georgia instead of doing work in the actual battle ground states.

AgBMF42 said:

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beerad12man said:

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AgBMF42 said:

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/

I don't think Biden is going to win Texas, but I also didn't think I'd have three coworkers confide in me that they voted Biden and then "straight ticket" R because they want things to go back to "normal"

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Did you tell those idiots to do their research? Do they think things are going back to normal under Biden and that party? The most extreme party of our lifetime?

Can people not see that the reason it doesn't feel normal now is because of the perfect storm of covid, MSM, and an election year?

Covid is the ONLY thing that makes things feel like they aren't normal right now. Without it, we'd all be living a great life. January 2020 was the happiest, and most successful I had ever been.

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Things weren't normal in 2019. Our clients and vendors used to talk about things other than the orange cultist.

And if you wanted normalcy during Covid, maybe you should have elected an effective leader.

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Wait, you're voting for the corrupt old fool? Will he come out of his basement?

UncleNateFitch said:

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If Trump doesn't win Texas I'll poop slap. Straight up, you heard it here folks.

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"poop slap"?

Do I even want to know what this is?

I don't think I do. Do I?

suburban cowboy said:

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It's just part of the narrative of what the left and MSM wants you to believe

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Bingo. They want to give the impression that Biden is so far ahead, your vote for Trump would be meaningless. Seriously. The MSM is absolutely trash and can't be trusted.

ironmanag said:

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I voted straight red but tell every text and phone call that I voted straight blue.

I am not the only one doing this.

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Same here ((raises hand))

Tramp96 said:

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UncleNateFitch said:

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If Trump doesn't win Texas I'll poop slap. Straight up, you heard it here folks.

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"poop slap"?

Do I even want to know what this is?

I don't think I do. Do I?

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You DONT know what a poop slap is?????


My god man.

Orange Man Bad = Dead Husk Good