EC Map discussion

8,212 Views | 98 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Sasappis
Gyles Marrett
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FL, NC, OH, AZ, (MI or WI or MN or PA)

Celebrate

Not that complicated....and all those not in parenthesis are looking safer by the day and I don't see Trump losing all 4 of the others.
soggybottomboy
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I think Biden wins 290-248. He picks up MI, PA, WI and Az from Trump 2016. Map
texsn95
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soggybottomboy said:

I think Biden wins 290-248. He picks up MI, PA, WI and Az from Trump 2016. Map
Username checks out.
Readzilla
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FrioAg 00 said:

Readzilla said:

Trump wins Florida Wisconsin NC and ohio easy. only has to win either Michigan penn or Arizona to win it all. easy win for trump


Unless you're spotting him Nevada, that's not accurate. Fl, Wisc, NC, Ohio, AZ only gets him to 265, no?


he is at 259. AZ gets him to 270, MI gives 275, Penn gives him 279. either way a win

and no way in hell he loses all 3
aginresearch
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Sorry bad wording. I meant Biden can't win OH. It's 100% Trump at this point.
FrioAg 00
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Thanks for the correction - I found my error

I think your scenario is pretty likely, a lot higher than 12% that's for sure

Ernest Tucker
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Gyles Marrett
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soggybottomboy said:

I think Biden wins 290-248. He picks up MI, PA, WI and Az from Trump 2016. Map
Why do we allow ignorant rooks around. SMH
policywonk98
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From what I'm seeing. Its also a possibility that this comes down to Arizona and Nevada in the west very late.

Biden flips NC, PA, MI, and WI.

Dems think they have it in the bag at this point.

But then Trump surprise flips MN.

Reason Trump was in Nebraska was to try and secure all EC votes including NE-2. He will need that. He made the stop in Maine. He needs that 1 EC vote from there.

Because then we find out in the middle of the night. Trump wins AZ and Biden wins NV.

269 v 269

And all hell breaks loose.

txagbear
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Readzilla said:

FrioAg 00 said:

Readzilla said:

Trump wins Florida Wisconsin NC and ohio easy. only has to win either Michigan penn or Arizona to win it all. easy win for trump


Unless you're spotting him Nevada, that's not accurate. Fl, Wisc, NC, Ohio, AZ only gets him to 265, no?


he is at 259. AZ gets him to 270, MI gives 275, Penn gives him 279. either way a win

and no way in hell he loses all 3
Assuming Wisconsin for some unknown reason
Readzilla
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assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
txagbear
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Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
aggiehawg
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policywonk98 said:

From what I'm seeing. Its also a possibility that this comes down to Arizona and Nevada in the west very late.

Biden flips NC, PA, MI, and WI.

Dems think they have it in the bag at this point.

But then Trump surprise flips MN.

Reason Trump was in Nebraska was to try and secure all EC votes including NE-2. He will need that. He made the stop in Maine. He needs that 1 EC vote from there.

Because then we find out in the middle of the night. Trump wins AZ and Biden wins NV.

269 v 269

And all hell breaks loose.


You seem excited for that nightmare? Bush v. Gore 1.0 was enough for me, thank you very much.
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Gigem314
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txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
txagbear
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Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Readzilla
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I'm confident in Nebraska 2. Maine 2 is a possibility to lose, but Don bacon won in 2018 and this year is being endorsed by the democrat he beat in 2016 so i don't see much flip-flopping on that
Gigem314
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txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
policywonk98
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Sasappis said:

If Trump loses Michigan and Wisconsin, I do not see him getting Minnesota.

That would be a truly weird result.


Would it be stranger than Jesse Ventura once being the governor of MN?

Stranger than PA, MI, WI getting flipped by Trump, but not MN as well?

Stranger than 49 states voting for Reagan, but not MN? I know I know, Mondale, but people really loved Reagan in 1984.

I think the margins separating defeat from victory are so thin within all of the states in play. Given turnout, all of the states Trump flipped in 2016 could stay in his column, as easily as not.
txagbear
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Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Gigem314
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txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.
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sellthefarm
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I know a handful of Christians that voted for Trump in 2016 but will not this time because of his "character" issues...basically they believe the media narratives and don't care if the left is crazy because they think Trump is a liar, Russian pawn, etc. etc.

This is basically the suburban white upper middle class soccer mom group. The group that made the Beto race closer than it should have been.

I don't think their numbers are big enough to sink Trump, but there are a few of them.
BanderaAg956
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Already voted Trump
Liberals are Damn Liars! Terminate Section 230! It has been ONLY 72!hours since my last banning for defending my conservative values against liberal snowflake cupcakes and the LIBERAL Mod’s that protect them! Fairness is a myth! Stop trying to silence us! Decent LAW ABIDING HUMAN BEINGS MATTER and so do our voices. When you protect the wicked, the Anarchist, the deviant, you become One of them!

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amercer
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Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
mslags97
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This is such a bi-polar election cycle. I have to say, I am extremely nervous today. I don't know what has led to my downward slide in confidence, but I just don't have much confidence in Trump's chances today.

The early voting numbers are through the roof. Well over 50% of the total vote last time. And if the dems are getting out with such ferocity, I just don't see any chance to overcome those numbers.

I think the EC could be terribly slanted to sleepy joe. Man I hope I'm wrong. Time and time again, I keep seeing Texas as a tossup. I have consistently called BS on that, and I have constantly said I think Trump would win by double digits. However, the numbers in Texas are crazy. Houston scares me in that it has shifted so far left, and the numbers for early voting there are sky high. I still don't think Texas is at risk, but I just don't think the pollsters are stupid enough to make the exact same mistake as last time. Please tell me I'm wrong!!!!!
Keegan99
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You're wrong.
Gigem314
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amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
Except, we don't know if turnout is historically high for the Dems. To dismiss the Trump ground game and getting people out to vote that haven't voted in recent elections is notable. I don't see anything to indicate a Biden landslide.
mslags97
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Keegan99 said:

You're wrong.


I truly hope so!! My anxiety levels are through the roof. As a Christian, I absolutely believe in the truth that God is in Control; and I know that truth should allow me to not worry, but I absolutely see our country falling apart right in front of us. Just see the libs destroying this country!
PA24
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Trump is a boss when it comes to working n overdrive.

He will be win Because of his refuse to lose attitude
Legend
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Gigem314 said:

amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
Except, we don't know if turnout is historically high for the Dems. To dismiss the Trump ground game and getting people out to vote that haven't voted in recent elections is notable. I don't see anything to indicate a Biden landslide.
This. No one knows turnout is going to be through the roof. Some are actually predicting low turnout among blacks and youth/college aged voters for various reasons. All we know is that "record turnout" has occurred in early voting and vote by mail. This is due to Covid and there are no doubt highly motivated people on both sides who were eager to vote. But, there are a ton of people who watched that first debate and said "is this really the best two people we have? They may never vote.

Turnout has been below 60% (of voting age population) since 1960. 2016 was 55%. I think if there is going to be a higher turnout it will be on the Trump side. They have spent a lot of time trying to identify non-voters and sign them up. Biden is not drawing anyone to the polls. Question is how much the TDS can drive turnout. Historically, the anti-vote doesn't do it. Sure, it motivates the haters, but that traditionally only goes so far.
Always_Right
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Legend said:

Gigem314 said:

amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
Except, we don't know if turnout is historically high for the Dems. To dismiss the Trump ground game and getting people out to vote that haven't voted in recent elections is notable. I don't see anything to indicate a Biden landslide.
This. No one knows turnout is going to be through the roof. Some are actually predicting low turnout among blacks and youth/college aged voters for various reasons. All we know is that "record turnout" has occurred in early voting and vote by mail. This is due to Covid and there are no doubt highly motivated people on both sides who were eager to vote. But, there are a ton of people who watched that first debate and said "is this really the best two people we have? They may never vote.

Turnout has been below 60% (of voting age population) since 1960. 2016 was 55%. I think if there is going to be a higher turnout it will be on the Trump side. They have spent a lot of time trying to identify non-voters and sign them up. Biden is not drawing anyone to the polls. Question is how much the TDS can drive turnout. Historically, the anti-vote doesn't do it. Sure, it motivates the haters, but that traditionally only goes so far.
One of the best posts on this board, thanks.
amercer
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The predictions are for turnout levels not seen since 1908. Those predictions could be wrong, but at this rate it looks like early voting may surpass the total 2016 vote by itself.

High turnout has historically favored Democrats, but again that could be wrong this year. I do feel we've reached the point where a whole lot has to be wrong for Trump to win. I'm also glad that it's finally coming to an end and that we will have actual answers soon.
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