Pennsylvania Swing Counties

4,412 Views | 36 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by HoustonAggie37713
Jbob04
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Sorry for the CNN link here but I saw this on tiger droppings.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/early-voting-ballot-count-pennsylvania-2020/index.html

Says they don't start counting mail in ballots until after all in person voting is done in these swing counties, which could be the day after the election. Seems like this gives them the opportunity to see how many missing votes the can all of the sudden find.
AgBQ-00
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That is the plan for the dems. It worked like a charm for them in 2018 as well. They flat out stole several elections in 2018.
rgag12
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Oh yea, fraud is going to happen in PA no doubt. We just have to hope the Supreme Court slaps them down after the election or that Trump wins the state by more than 1%.
polarice
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Didn't the dems try to change that, allowing the state to start counting the mail in votes before actual Election Day?

Pretty sure the Republicans blocked it
DX2011
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Do they at least have to announce how many total ballots they have to count before election night? Otherwise, I have almost no hope that Trump takes Pennsylvania.
polarice
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Yes I am replying to myself

Now they've set themselves nicely to cry voter fraud if things don't go their way, when the mailing counting pile up could have been avoided entirely.
Pro2Percent
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Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
Gig This Ags!
WHOOP!'91
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Pro2Percent said:

Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
Nate Silver?
A & M, GIVE US ROOM!

IDaggie06
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I'm guessing 0%, but is there any possibility the new Supreme Court can change their ruling on allowing PA to count ballots for the extra week?
aggiehawg
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IDaggie06 said:

I'm guessing 0%, but is there any possibility the new Supreme Court can change their ruling on allowing PA to count ballots for the extra week?
Yes. A 4-4 tie is no decision at all and they can take up the matter again.
halfastros81
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I feel like PA is the key to this election. Seems to me like every possible resource for finding and disallowing voter fraud should be brought to bear and assisting R election officials in PA next week and the week after. Does anyone know if that's what is actually happening?
Kenneth_2003
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Do PA voters that request a mail-in ballot still have the option to vote in person? If so, you can't start counting those mail-in ballots until the final in-person voter rolls are complete. Wouldn't it have to wait until after the polls are closed?

Don't most states not even count mail-in and absentee ballots unless the race is close enough?
Ellis Wyatt
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Pro2Percent said:

Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
The party that opposes all efforts to ensure the sanctity of the vote?
cupcakesprinkles
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Between Joe saying he wants to destroy fracking and the Philly riots, it isn't looking good for Joe.
Gigem314
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Ellis Wyatt said:

Pro2Percent said:

Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
The party that opposes all efforts to ensure the sanctity of the vote?
And if they can't win...they blame Russian fraud.
Line Ate Member
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Hopefully Trump's team plants a few poll watchers/volunteers/lawyers there so they can get in front of anything shady
halfastros81
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Quote:

Between Joe saying he wants to destroy fracking and the Philly riots, it isn't looking good for Joe.


He's a chameleon tho. He tells different groups different things. Enviro audience.... ban fraccing tomorrow . Working class audience..... I want to make sure you have jobs and I never said I wanted to ban fraccing, and I was only talking about new fraccing , and only a ban on federal land, and wer'e going to make a transition over 30 yrs. The real story is what Harris says and she makes no bones about it.... I want to ban fraccing. That's the message that needs to be and is being broadcast by Trump.
nortex97
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This is kind funny.

rgag12
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The world is really ramping up their coordinated Corona panic right now.

I fully expect the dem govenors of MI, WI, MN, and PA to issue stay-at-home orders through the election and say that you can only vote by mail. Most wont have the authority to do this, but are hoping to create so much confusion that it takes a couple points off of republican in-person voting next week
javajaws
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Voting in this country is so f***ed up. It's an embarrassment to be a first world country and be this technologically advanced and have the problems we do.

halfastros81
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technology is part of the issue tho. Look at online markets... very vulnerable to fraud and the bar is not very high to be successful at it.
rgag12
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rgag12 said:

The world is really ramping up their coordinated Corona panic right now.

I fully expect the dem govenors of MI, WI, MN, and PA to issue stay-at-home orders through the election and say that you can only vote by mail. Most wont have the authority to do this, but are hoping to create so much confusion that it takes a couple points off of republican in-person voting next week


Get ready, this is already happening:

Aggie Pharmer
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nortex97 said:

This is kind funny.


What does this mean?
Keegan99
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titan
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S
Gigem314 said:

Ellis Wyatt said:

Pro2Percent said:

Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
The party that opposes all efforts to ensure the sanctity of the vote?
And if they can't win...they blame Russian fraud.
But never mention their likely main donors--- China.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
ActualTalkingThermos
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polarice said:

Yes I am replying to myself

Now they've set themselves nicely to cry voter fraud if things don't go their way, when the mailing counting pile up could have been avoided entirely.
Yes, having results on election day is so important that we can't possibly count mail-in ballots that arrive late in spite of being mailed several days before election day. But we can't get a head start on counting the mail-in ballots so that the counting hopefully won't extend past election day.

They figure any kind of pileup with the mail-in votes favors them because Dems are disproportionately voting by mail and if counting all the mail-in ballots isn't done on election day they'll be able to cry fraud and/or try to shut down the counting with lawsuits.

Neither party has any kind of principled stance with regard to voting rules, they want rules that favor them. I guarantee that if the GOP had a way to ensure that there was only one voting location per state and it was located in the deepest red county of that state, they would do it, and the Dems would do exactly the same with the deepest blue county if they could. 100% without a doubt they would. Worth remembering any time you hear anyone from either party yammering about preserving the integrity of the election.
ActualTalkingThermos
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WHOOP!'91 said:

Pro2Percent said:

Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
Nate Silver?
Nate Silver said that with the polls being what they are this close to election day and with so many having voted, Biden is going to win unless the polls are wrong or the election is somehow stolen. Logically it's hard to poke holes in that statement.

IF Trump wins the election fair and square, THEN the polls are wrong. IF the polls are right, THEN Biden wins a fair election. IF the polls are right AND Biden loses, THEN the election was not fair.
Faustus
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Here is a Philly article about the current rules (which the state's GOP is taking a second run at in the SC with the recent addition of Barrett).

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/election-2020-results-pennsylvania-20201027.html

Quote:

Things could get very, very weird on election night.

After polls close at 8 p.m. in Pennsylvania, the first results that come in could make it look as if former Vice President Joe Biden is winning in a landslide. But then the numbers could start to shift, and by the end of the night, President Donald Trump could look as if he's the one winning big. Then, in the days afterward, vote tallies could slowly turn back in Biden's favor.

All this means we may or may not know who actually won Pennsylvania or the White House on Nov. 3. It could be a jarring change for Americans who have long since become accustomed to going to bed knowing the winner.
. . .
There are some key questions we won't have the answers to until votes start getting counted, especially if the election is close as it was in 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by less than 1% of the total votes cast.

Here are some key things we won't know:

[ol]
  • How many mail ballots will arrive after Election Day? The state Supreme Court has said those ballots can be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day or have missing or illegible postmarks and arrive by 8 p.m. that Friday.
  • How many mail ballots will be rejected? This could include ballots that are unsigned, or "naked ballots" missing inner secrecy envelopes.
  • How will turnout differ across areas? What matters isn't just the two-party vote share but the actual level of voter turnout. We know that deep-blue cities such as Philadelphia will vote for Biden, and deep-red rural areas will go for Trump. But it's the raw numbers that add up to a margin of victory or defeat.
  • [/ol]. . .
    It will take days to count the votes

    It's the first year any Pennsylvania voter can vote by mail, and the pandemic has fueled a massive surge in demand for mail ballots. Those ballots take time to count, and the process, by law, can't begin until the morning of Election Day.
    . . .
    The result has been a strong partisan divide: Democrats are disproportionately likely to vote by mail while Republicans are voting in person.

    What we're used to seeing hour-by-hour could happen day-by-day, said Ned Foley, an Ohio State election law professor.

    Votes are counted in a specific order
    There are three different methods for casting a vote, and that affects when they are counted.
    [ol]
  • The first ballots to be counted will be the mail ballots that were returned early on. These will be among the first votes reported after the polls close, which is why things could look very good for Biden at first.
  • Then the in-person votes get counted. Because those votes are being put into electronic machines, getting their results is easy all the votes from a machine can be added to the county's tally within minutes. Those results will likely skew heavily toward Trump.
  • Then the rest of the mail ballots get counted, which will take days. Elections officials have to check the voter information on the outside envelope, open that outer envelope, pull out the inside envelope, open the inside envelope, pull out the ballot inside, unfold and flatten the ballot, and scan the ballot to count it.
  • And finally, the last ballots to be counted are the provisional ballots, the paper ballots used at polling places when it's unclear whether a vote should be counted.
  • [/ol]
    As these mail and provisional ballots are counted, they will likely continue what is known academically as a "blue shift" toward Biden. That's not fraud, or the election being stolen, it's just the votes being counted. How big that shift is could determine the winner.

    We don't know how quickly those ballots will be counted, and estimates have changed over time. Counties have spent millions of dollars buying new equipment to speed up the counting and have significantly increased their staffing, with Philadelphia and its suburban counties planning to count ballots around the clock.

    Chester County officials said they plan to have all the ballots they have received counted by sunrise Nov. 4. Delaware County hopes to complete that process by 1 a.m. for votes received before Election Day, and then to have all the ones received on Election Day counted by 8 a.m. Thursday.

    But then ballots can keep arriving until Friday.
    . . .
    When a race is "called" on election night or soon after, it's not an official declaration from elections officials it's a determination made by news outlets that enough data have come in to know who won.
    Those calls aren't always right, including the infamous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline in the Chicago Tribune in 1948, or the TV news declarations that Al Gore had won the 2000 election. There have been more recent examples, including when the Associated Press which The Inquirer uses as its source for declaring winners called a California congressional race in 2018 before later retracting the call.

    The reason for the faulty call? The large number of mail ballots counted after Election Day.

    Still, the AP and other news organizations that call races have a strong record of accuracy, using sophisticated statistical models and a variety of data sources paired with on-the-ground reporting.
    . . .
    Remember: There's a difference between knowing the final vote count and knowing enough to unofficially declare a winner. How quickly news organizations like the AP can call the race depends on how close the margins are and how things play out in the rest of the country.

    There very well may be enough information on election night to call the presidential race, especially if it's a landslide.

    But there's also a real chance that it might take a day or two, though it shouldn't take longer than the end of the week. If it does, it will likely be because something has gone wrong in the counting process or because litigation throws things into doubt.

    A ton of votes will be counted on election night, and counties will be scrambling to count them all as quickly as possible.
    . . .
    I wouldn't be surprised if the updated SC rules on the merits of the case to chop off the provisional ballot counting. Here's an article about the SC's 4-4 decision on 10/20 to leave in place Pennsylvania's SC decision extending the deadline for receipt of mail-in ballots to 11/6 as long as they are post-marked by 11/3, and state Republican's attempted second bite at the apple now that the Court is presumably more favorably constituted.

    https://www.scotusblog.com/2020/10/pennsylvania-republicans-return-to-supreme-court-to-challenge-extended-deadline-for-mail-in-ballots/

    It would be a pretty big deal the SC, with the addition of Barrett, acted to truncate the mail-in votes being counted (which will be largely Democrat votes) in some fashion right before the election - just days after leaving the state Supreme Court ruling in place. Truthfully it would vindicate Republicans strategy and rush to get her on the bench before the election.

    I'd be fine with the provisional votes not being counted if received after election day. I think the ones post-marked by election day should be counted if received until 11/6, because that's what the voters have been relying on. We'll see how differently the new Court sees things than the one from days ago.

    Interesting times.
    Glenlivet
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    My issue with Pennsylvania is they have refuses to let anyone watch the counting of the ballots
    Yukon Cornelius
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    Pro2Percent said:

    Lol. Yeah if you can't win its probably fraud. Wonder where you got that messaging from.
    Let me guess, you were really concerned about russia interference for the last four years but you think voter fraud is a myth?

    Keegan99
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    Yukon Cornelius
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    PA may be over for the dems?
    Keegan99
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    Schweikart is a huge GOP homer, so that's his spin.
    2021NCAggies
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    Screw segregation crap. SC needs to rule before election

    I don't trust anybody in Philly or it's suburbs
    dreyOO
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    rgag12 said:

    rgag12 said:

    The world is really ramping up their coordinated Corona panic right now.

    I fully expect the dem govenors of MI, WI, MN, and PA to issue stay-at-home orders through the election and say that you can only vote by mail. Most wont have the authority to do this, but are hoping to create so much confusion that it takes a couple points off of republican in-person voting next week


    Get ready, this is already happening:



    I'm not sure what this guy is talking about. I voted in person in Douglas County just a few days ago. My wife will do the same today. I've heard nothing about what he is tweeting. My social media would be on fire if this were accurate.

    ETA: my wife just texted me. She just voted. Seems like fake news. But I'm glad people are vigilant. Vote in person
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