Moxley said:

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beerad12man said:

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https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct26

Not sure this means much. Didn't they call it in 2016 as well?

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I just can't trust a poll that has Biden only with 77% of Democrat support among likely voters but only down 1% overall. It makes no sense.

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Agree. That poll is garbage. I think Trump paid for that poll to give at his rallies today. Garbage poll to think Biden is only getting 77% of Democrat votes.

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Agree. That poll is garbage. I think Trump paid for that poll to give at his rallies today. Garbage poll to think Biden is only getting 77% of Democrat votes.

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Wait a minute though. If you back out the increased numbers with the Hispanic, 20+% of the black votes, that actually could be within the realm of possibility.

Do people on here think Texas is actually in play for Biden?

Trump will win TX by 10.

TheCougarHunter said:

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Do people on here think Texas is actually in play for Biden?

Trump will win TX by 10.

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Lol.

He won it by 9 in 2016.

I think he wins Texas by no more than 1-3%.

I'll be shocked if Trump doesn't win Texas by double digits. Only way he doesn't is is there is massive cheatingwhich I do think is a possibility if Harris and Dallas counties are any indication.

PJYoung said:

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I think he wins Texas by no more than 1-3%.

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Less than 10% seems almost a certainty. 5% or less seems likely. An outright loss unlikely, but not impossible.

PJYoung said:

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TheCougarHunter said:

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Do people on here think Texas is actually in play for Biden?

Trump will win TX by 10.

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Lol.

He won it by 9 in 2016.

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Huge difference there!

Well this is one 3rd party vote in 2016 that's going to Trump in 2020.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't win by a larger margin this time.

The poll is explained. Biden is +7 with non affiliated voters (neither D or R).

Gigem314 said:

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PJYoung said:

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TheCougarHunter said:

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Do people on here think Texas is actually in play for Biden?

Trump will win TX by 10.

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Lol.

He won it by 9 in 2016.

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Huge difference there!

Well this is one 3rd party vote in 2016 that's going to Trump in 2020.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't win by a larger margin this time.

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There is zero data I've seen that supports that view but I guess we will find out soon enough.

amercer said:

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Biden landslide seems the most likely outcome at this point.

8 days until we know.

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Dems will only cheat enough to win if they do (win that is), don't think they are stupid enough to risk the obvious level of cheating a dem landslide would require.

C@LAg said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Two things that hurt the Dems big time are campuses all over the country shut down and Dems need the college age vote and it's being reduced.

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except they will just vote where they are?

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I'd think they'd be more likely to vote now than if they were partying on campus.

Sine poena nulla lex.

C@LAg said:

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Faustus said:

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C@LAg said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Two things that hurt the Dems big time are campuses all over the country shut down and Dems need the college age vote and it's being reduced.

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except they will just vote where they are?

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I'd think they'd be more likely to vote now than if they were partying on campus.

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and some of the more active might also vote for other family members who are not voting.

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God help us?

Sine poena nulla lex.

Texas will be 53-45 Trump.

College campuses were a huge recruiting ground for registration drives and social pressure to get to the polls. Have to think a lot of college students, especially those who are big-time Bernie supporters, might not vote.

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Dems will only cheat enough to win if they do (win that is), don't think they are stupid enough to risk the obvious level of cheating a dem landslide would require.

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You guys have all of the bases covered on Biden stealing this election.

The polls somehow are coordinated enough to all give cover to Biden, literally THE POLLS, made up of many, many diverse organizations, ALL have decided to somehow fake their #s and not get caught. All it would take is one person inside of any of these diverse organizations to tattle but no, like all good conspiracies they have somehow scared everybody into keeping quiet.

And now the Democrats will somehow know how many ballots to fake to make the cheating not look too obvious but make sure they fake enough to get Biden across the line.

Amazing.

No link, but I've read that the youth vote is down

BoerneAg11 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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Well, in my West Houston neighborhood its at least 4 to 1 Trump signs...

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In the Heights and we might be outnumbered 50/1 Biden to Trump

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I don't recall seeing one in Montrose for Trump, but surely there has to be one somewhere.

PJYoung said:

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Gigem314 said:

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PJYoung said:

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TheCougarHunter said:

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Do people on here think Texas is actually in play for Biden?

Trump will win TX by 10.

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Lol.

He won it by 9 in 2016.

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Huge difference there!

Well this is one 3rd party vote in 2016 that's going to Trump in 2020.

I would be very surprised if he doesn't win by a larger margin this time.

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There is zero data I've seen that supports that view but I guess we will find out soon enough.

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Considering how unreliable data has proven to be in the past, it's anyone's guess. I We'll find out soon enough.

Sq 17 said:

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I would not solely blame Mitt for the 2016 loss, Obama was going to be tough to beat he was the incumbent who won convincingly in 2012.

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If the media in this country were even remotely objective, Romney would have won in 2012 and Trump would have never run for office as an R.

Rockdoc said:

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Dan Scott said:

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This election in my opinion will be a blowout either way. I just don't know who is going to win. If I had to guess, it's Biden. The "get out the vote" campaign is strong this year and voting is cool now. So many woke Democrats.

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The get out and vote on the dem side is strong? I haven't seen that. Where are you seeing that? Maybe you see get out and cheat.

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I see multiple adds every day on both the TV and on YouTube (hell even with OnDemand shows) to "get out and vote" and the message on who to vote for is pretty obviously slanted one way.

BoerneAg11 said:

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dBoy99 said:

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Well, in my West Houston neighborhood its at least 4 to 1 Trump signs...

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In the Heights and we might be outnumbered 50/1 Biden to Trump

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I drove through the Heights recently and saw all the Biden signs. Its seriously depressing.

There is no chance in hell that Texas flips to Biden. Keep drinking libs!

pacecar02 said:

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No link, but I've read that the youth vote is down

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Not true:

The explosive increase in youth voter turnout in Texas is eye-popping:

11 days before election turnout of voters aged 18-20:
2016: 106,000
2020: 753,600

https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/absentee-and-early-voting-youth-2020-election?fbclid=IwAR3EeaspbOLuGtvKlP2y4hlYxJXcptnEuqNrAL8SwuNGnARjfNmLk85EToE

Those numbers are flat out not possible.

There are barely that many 18-20 year olds ALIVE in Texas.

Keegan99 said:

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Those numbers are flat out not possible.

There are barely that many 18-20 year olds ALIVE in Texas.

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How many people do you think there are in Texas?? Seems reasonable to me based on overall early voting numbers...over 8 million votes have already been cast.

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-early-voting-numbers/

You mean 18-30 year old. These are astounding numbers. But do we know partisan lean of Texas youth? They could on net lean Republican?

SlygirlAg said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Those numbers are flat out not possible.

There are barely that many 18-20 year olds ALIVE in Texas.

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How many people do you think there are in Texas?? Seems reasonable to me based on overall early voting numbers...over 8 million votes have already been cast.

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-early-voting-numbers/

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I can't find the link, but I was exploring this a few days ago from a national perspective. In the last few elections, the youth vote (18-29) ran about 14% to 17% of all votes cast, and in the latest numbers I saw it was running around 10%. That's nationally; it will vary by state and might have changed some since I last looked.

Nearly 10% of all votes are not from *18-20* year olds. Sorry.

I didn't vote Trump in '16. Just Didn't vote for Pres. I just told my wife the other night. She was dumbfounded because I always vote republican. I told her that I truly believed he was a democrat and just saw an opportunity to expand his brand. We live in TX and I knew it wouldn't be an issue with the election. I did vote R in all down ballot races.

I'm pimping Trump this go round.

It's up to you if you want to believe the polls. I do not. I know there are Shy Trump voters, as I have friends and family who fall in the category. Maybe it's widespread, maybe not.

With that said, my thought is that there has never been a better case study for social desirability bias in polling than the 2020 US Presidential Election. I believe, don't know but believe, there is at least a +2% Biden and -3% Trump bias in the national polls.

That doesn't mean Trump leads, but it is tight.