This is one election that I am avoiding making any predictions about which major party wins.
The confidence on both sides is wild
18,145 Views |
189 Replies |
Last: 3 yr ago by singapore_sling
They really believe Texas is a toss up.
These are liberal arts majors. They don't have a brain. They think men can be women and that we can end the oil industry by 2025.
These are liberal arts majors. They don't have a brain. They think men can be women and that we can end the oil industry by 2025.
The people creating these same polls actively support media propoganda and censorship. Why would the polls and the narratives surrounding them be any different?
Not to mention these same disillusioned imbeciles also believe that:
Words are violence.
white people are privileged and Black people aren't.
Antifa is just an idea.
BLM only held peaceful protests.
Promptness and timeliness is racist.
Kyle Rittenhouse is a white supremacist serial killer.
The McCloskeys should be thrown in jail.
Jacob Blake and George Floyd are heroes.
Trump is a dictator.
The pledge of allegiance and the US flag is racist.
If you aren't anti-racist then you're racist.
George Washington and Abe Lincoln are racist and evil.
There are many (infinite) genders.
2+2=5.
Abortions are the removal of "cells."
The word 'preference' is a derogatory term.
Assumed pronouns is a crime.
Disallowing the sales of 'Free Hong Kong' shirts is fine.
Travel bans to prevent a pandemic is xenophobic.
Exactly all covid deaths (220k) is Trump's fault.
Plexiglass and neck gaiters prevent airborne viruses.
Churches, Synagogues, and groups of 11+ cause covid.
Those that don't fear covid catch covid.
Those that don't wear masks are murderers.
Releasing criminals from jail helps prevent covid.
Throwing non-mask wearers in jail prevents covid.
Lowering/lifting masks between bites prevents covid.
New York did a good job at "flattening the curve."
Preventing kids from going to school helps society.
8 year olds should be able to choose their gender.
Censorship is good.
The media isn't biased.
Voter fraud without a voter ID is an impossibility.
Illegal immigration should be allowed and gov funded.
Weaponizing government agencies for politics is fine.
People that don't agree with them are maggots.
Peace in the ME isn't a good thing, only political.
Global warming causes forest fires.
Controlled deforestation is bad.
Those that oppose 60%+ taxes are greedy.
Doxxing nuns for attending a Trump rally is acceptable.
Shutting down the oil industry will stop hurricanes.
Spending 100 trillion in 10 yr on "green energy" is ideal.
Packing the court is justifiable.
....But yeah perhaps they know what they're doing when it comes to polling though. I'm sure it's us on the right who have lost touch with reality in regards to public feel and political happenings. Biden and his voters have every right to feel comfortable about their lead right now as they've more than earned it this election cycle.
Can't wait for November 3rd.
Not to mention these same disillusioned imbeciles also believe that:
Words are violence.
white people are privileged and Black people aren't.
Antifa is just an idea.
BLM only held peaceful protests.
Promptness and timeliness is racist.
Kyle Rittenhouse is a white supremacist serial killer.
The McCloskeys should be thrown in jail.
Jacob Blake and George Floyd are heroes.
Trump is a dictator.
The pledge of allegiance and the US flag is racist.
If you aren't anti-racist then you're racist.
George Washington and Abe Lincoln are racist and evil.
There are many (infinite) genders.
2+2=5.
Abortions are the removal of "cells."
The word 'preference' is a derogatory term.
Assumed pronouns is a crime.
Disallowing the sales of 'Free Hong Kong' shirts is fine.
Travel bans to prevent a pandemic is xenophobic.
Exactly all covid deaths (220k) is Trump's fault.
Plexiglass and neck gaiters prevent airborne viruses.
Churches, Synagogues, and groups of 11+ cause covid.
Those that don't fear covid catch covid.
Those that don't wear masks are murderers.
Releasing criminals from jail helps prevent covid.
Throwing non-mask wearers in jail prevents covid.
Lowering/lifting masks between bites prevents covid.
New York did a good job at "flattening the curve."
Preventing kids from going to school helps society.
8 year olds should be able to choose their gender.
Censorship is good.
The media isn't biased.
Voter fraud without a voter ID is an impossibility.
Illegal immigration should be allowed and gov funded.
Weaponizing government agencies for politics is fine.
People that don't agree with them are maggots.
Peace in the ME isn't a good thing, only political.
Global warming causes forest fires.
Controlled deforestation is bad.
Those that oppose 60%+ taxes are greedy.
Doxxing nuns for attending a Trump rally is acceptable.
Shutting down the oil industry will stop hurricanes.
Spending 100 trillion in 10 yr on "green energy" is ideal.
Packing the court is justifiable.
....But yeah perhaps they know what they're doing when it comes to polling though. I'm sure it's us on the right who have lost touch with reality in regards to public feel and political happenings. Biden and his voters have every right to feel comfortable about their lead right now as they've more than earned it this election cycle.
Can't wait for November 3rd.
What I don't get is the repeated notion that Biden's ground game is non existent. We've learned over and over again that the GG is everything. Sorry, I'm not buying it that this election will ave a massive turnout. I think hardcore voters have voted and nothing more. Doubt we'll hit 2012 numbers.
These polls guarantee that whichever side loses will have a major meltdown, so that's kinda fun, but they also guarantee that the loser will accuse the winner of cheating and election fraud. Yay.
Trump will win. No doubt in my mind.
DirtyMike with the win.
Pretty sure Wasserman is a Lincoln Project guy. What else is he supposed to say here except some BS he made up to save face?
EnderWiggin said:
What I don't get is the repeated notion that Biden's ground game is non existent. We've learned over and over again that the GG is everything. Sorry, I'm not buying it that this election will ave a massive turnout. I think hardcore voters have voted and nothing more. Doubt we'll hit 2012 numbers.
Biden GG is suspect but the anybody but Trump GG has been up and running since the pink hat March. Anybody who is impressed with a Trump rally should review the footage of the pink hats. All of that ground game has been engaged for 3+ years.
Yes. They are a part of the Sorogates Globalist Cabal supporting global socialism and eugenics.
In 2016 I liked Trump but he wasn't my first choice for republican nominee. I mainly voted against Hillary rather than for Trump. I also didn't have a ton of confidence Trump could win in 2016.
In 2020 I'm 100% in on Trump, and expect him to win next week. Hoping for an easy victory, but I expect it to be a long night.
In 2020 I'm 100% in on Trump, and expect him to win next week. Hoping for an easy victory, but I expect it to be a long night.
Sq 17 said:EnderWiggin said:
What I don't get is the repeated notion that Biden's ground game is non existent. We've learned over and over again that the GG is everything. Sorry, I'm not buying it that this election will ave a massive turnout. I think hardcore voters have voted and nothing more. Doubt we'll hit 2012 numbers.
Biden GG is suspect but the anybody but Trump GG has been up and running since the pink hat March. Anybody who is impressed with a Trump rally should review the footage of the pink hats. All of that ground game has been engaged for 3+ years.
Good point. I'd argue though that this election bears similarities to 2012. In 2012 the Tea Party movement had previously delivered the House back to the Republicans. Republicans were still mad about Obamacare, a crappy economic recovery, Obama scandals, and high oil prices. Mitt Romney killed that enthusiasm.
I'm hoping Joe Biden is doing the same to the Democrats. The real challenge will be keeping the Senate and getting the House back.
This election in my opinion will be a blowout either way. I just don't know who is going to win. If I had to guess, it's Biden. The "get out the vote" campaign is strong this year and voting is cool now. So many woke Democrats.
I would not solely blame Mitt for the 2016 loss, Obama was going to be tough to beat he was the incumbent who won convincingly in 2012.
It makes me wonder what the history books will say. I guess it all depends on who wins...DirtyMikesBoys said:
Pretty wild to think back not long ago at all to the night of the SOTU address. To that point Trump, despite the weight of the world on his shoulders and what seemed like anyone who could doing everything in their power to see him fall, from 90 some odd percent negative media coverage, to unprecedented illegal spying by an outgoing administration, on and on it went.. he had the US in the strongest position it's potentially ever been in. Across the board regardless of color or creed the US was soaring. Economy, crushed ISIS, USMCA, two successful Supreme Court nominations, energy independence in conjunction with environmental cleanup that led the world. Tax cuts that benefited all. Historic support for AA causes HBC/opportunity Zones, etc. He stood up for us. He kept winning.
The prideful Democrats on the hill and in bureaucracy inside the beltway couldn't handle the unapologetic American exceptionalism. They couldn't handle their team not being responsible for all the W's he racked up. He embarrassed them.
So they double down. Throw a childlike tantrum and pass a partisan impeachment. "Because we'll show him!"
"He'll always be impeached," she said.
They've resorted to character assassination of decorated generals, respected judges, whatever it takes to "get him," they've tried.
And despite everything. It all failed.
What's left but to flick the off switch on America for nearly a calendar year. All the pain, divorce, suicide rates, businesses failing be damned. They were still dead set on "getting him."
I hope to my core that America rejects the vile vindictive behavior we've experienced throughout this first term, but if it all finally proves to be too much for one man to conquer, DJT is a lion. A patriot. A warrior. He's been through hell and fought every step of the way. I am beyond thankful for the man. It takes someone special to endure the scrutiny he has and not only function on a day to day basis, but keep his promises and dunk on Democrats heads over and over and over again.
God bless DJT. God Bless America.
Sq 17 said:
I would not solely blame Mitt for the 2016 loss, Obama was going to be tough to beat he was the incumbent who won convincingly in 2012.
Romney was selected as the candidate to not put up any real fight. Romney allowed Obama to steamroll in the debates on purpose.
The thing that gives me pause is the cheating. There is no doubt in my mind that there is massive amounts of voter fraud happening. If that is not in play I would be comfortable about this election.
Communists aren't people. They are property of the state.
TurkeyBaconLeg said:
Trump will win. No doubt in my mind.
Agree completely. Trump will win in a landslide.
Oh, the pure joy it will be,
to hear that sound again,
was heard fifth a score ago,
butter carried on the wind
the sure candidate smote,
a million black hearts dashed,
shock on visage revealed,
what lefty brain dare not grasp
their girl did not prevail,
orange smug in her place,
a mountainous cry flowed forth,
from every angry, liberal face.
to hear that sound again,
was heard fifth a score ago,
butter carried on the wind
the sure candidate smote,
a million black hearts dashed,
shock on visage revealed,
what lefty brain dare not grasp
their girl did not prevail,
orange smug in her place,
a mountainous cry flowed forth,
from every angry, liberal face.
AgBQ-00 said:
The thing that gives me pause is the cheating. There is no doubt in my mind that there is massive amounts of voter fraud happening. If that is not in play I would be comfortable about this election.
My thoughts exactly. If it was a legit election without voter fraud in the dems side, I believe it would be the biggest landslide since Reagan.
Biden landslide seems the most likely outcome at this point.
8 days until we know.
8 days until we know.
amercer said:
Biden landslide seems the most likely outcome at this point.
8 days until we know.
Share the drugs fam. Got any Biden crack left?
Dem side is optimistic because the majority of polling data is showing that Biden is leading and has the most possible paths to a victory. Unlike Hillary in 2016, the polling data this year has been different. Hillary's lead on Trump had wild swings up and down the last couple of months (and was trending down at the end). Biden's lead on Trump in 2020 has looked very stable in comparison.
GOP side though is optimistic because of 2016, and what they refer to as the 'Shy Trump Voter' effect. That there are lots of people out there who won't tell polling services that they are voting for Trump, but that is what they are going to do. A couple of the polling services who called 2016 correctly (notably Tralfalgar Group) are also calling Trump to win 2020 for the same reason.
But many of the other polling services who show Biden leading have been saying they've adjusted their models to account for 2016. 'fool me once, but can't fool me twice'.
Meanwhile, turnout has been at record pace thus far. More people than ever are voting early.
We'll see what actually happens soon enough. Note that message boards like this TexAgs Politics board are usually not a very good place to try to get an objective perspective. A message board like this one is not much different from a sports message board. For example, if you go on HogVille.com right now, the Arkansas fans are extremely optimistic about beating Texas A&M in football this weekend, with several posters and threads predicting a victory. Well, the A&M message boards are pretty confident themselves about extending the win streak to 9 games. It is pretty easy for fans of something to convince themselves of an outcome because of bias.
GOP side though is optimistic because of 2016, and what they refer to as the 'Shy Trump Voter' effect. That there are lots of people out there who won't tell polling services that they are voting for Trump, but that is what they are going to do. A couple of the polling services who called 2016 correctly (notably Tralfalgar Group) are also calling Trump to win 2020 for the same reason.
But many of the other polling services who show Biden leading have been saying they've adjusted their models to account for 2016. 'fool me once, but can't fool me twice'.
Meanwhile, turnout has been at record pace thus far. More people than ever are voting early.
We'll see what actually happens soon enough. Note that message boards like this TexAgs Politics board are usually not a very good place to try to get an objective perspective. A message board like this one is not much different from a sports message board. For example, if you go on HogVille.com right now, the Arkansas fans are extremely optimistic about beating Texas A&M in football this weekend, with several posters and threads predicting a victory. Well, the A&M message boards are pretty confident themselves about extending the win streak to 9 games. It is pretty easy for fans of something to convince themselves of an outcome because of bias.
Dan Scott said:
This election in my opinion will be a blowout either way. I just don't know who is going to win. If I had to guess, it's Biden. The "get out the vote" campaign is strong this year and voting is cool now. So many woke Democrats.
The get out and vote on the dem side is strong? I haven't seen that. Where are you seeing that? Maybe you see get out and cheat.
I'll bet you that we surpass 2016 vote totals.EnderWiggin said:
What I don't get is the repeated notion that Biden's ground game is non existent. We've learned over and over again that the GG is everything. Sorry, I'm not buying it that this election will ave a massive turnout. I think hardcore voters have voted and nothing more. Doubt we'll hit 2012 numbers.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
This posts deserves it's own thread
The Dems and the Biden campaign bit hard on the corona virus and eschewed canvassing door to door interaction. Nor did they set up a lot of campaign offices where people could get signs, shirts, hats, etc. Went to an online model for that stuff.Rockdoc said:Dan Scott said:
This election in my opinion will be a blowout either way. I just don't know who is going to win. If I had to guess, it's Biden. The "get out the vote" campaign is strong this year and voting is cool now. So many woke Democrats.
The get out and vote on the dem side is strong? I haven't seen that. Where are you seeing that? Maybe you see get out and cheat.
I have posted a few threads about the lack of boots on the ground for Biden in various battle ground states such as Michigan, particularly in swing areas such as Macomb County. Went Obama in 2012 but then went Trump 2016. Third largest population by county and outside of Detroit. One would assume those counties would be targeted by the Biden campaign to flip them back to the blue, yet they didn't even have a campaign office as recently as September.
And I have asked before where are all of the Biden surrogates on TV? The ones they send to FNC can't even answer simple questions. Of course, neither can their candidate.
aggiehawg said:The Dems and the Biden campaign bit hard on the corona virus and eschewed canvassing door to door interaction. Nor did they set up a lot of campaign offices where people could get signs, shirts, hats, etc. Went to an online model for that stuff.Rockdoc said:Dan Scott said:
This election in my opinion will be a blowout either way. I just don't know who is going to win. If I had to guess, it's Biden. The "get out the vote" campaign is strong this year and voting is cool now. So many woke Democrats.
The get out and vote on the dem side is strong? I haven't seen that. Where are you seeing that? Maybe you see get out and cheat.
I have posted a few threads about the lack of boots on the ground for Biden in various battle ground states such as Michigan, particularly in swing areas such as Macomb County. Went Obama in 2012 but then went Trump 2016. Third largest population by county and outside of Detroit. One would assume those counties would be targeted by the Biden campaign to flip them back to the blue, yet they didn't even have a campaign office as recently as September.
And I have asked before where are all of the Biden surrogates on TV? The ones they send to FNC can't even answer simple questions. Of course, neither can their candidate.
That's what I'm talking about. I don't see a ground game for the dems at all. I don't see where anybody is seeing a strong get out and vote campaign for the dems. All I see are indications of voter fraud.
aggiehawg said:The Dems and the Biden campaign bit hard on the corona virus and eschewed canvassing door to door interaction. Nor did they set up a lot of campaign offices where people could get signs, shirts, hats, etc. Went to an online model for that stuff.Rockdoc said:Dan Scott said:
This election in my opinion will be a blowout either way. I just don't know who is going to win. If I had to guess, it's Biden. The "get out the vote" campaign is strong this year and voting is cool now. So many woke Democrats.
The get out and vote on the dem side is strong? I haven't seen that. Where are you seeing that? Maybe you see get out and cheat.
I have posted a few threads about the lack of boots on the ground for Biden in various battle ground states such as Michigan, particularly in swing areas such as Macomb County. Went Obama in 2012 but then went Trump 2016. Third largest population by county and outside of Detroit. One would assume those counties would be targeted by the Biden campaign to flip them back to the blue, yet they didn't even have a campaign office as recently as September.
And I have asked before where are all of the Biden surrogates on TV? The ones they send to FNC can't even answer simple questions. Of course, neither can their candidate.
Regarding Michigan here, even the polling services predicting a Trump victory right now, like Trafalgar Group, seem to be predicting Biden takes Michigan. It seems to be the least likely 'swing' state that Trump has a chance to win.
Believe what you will. I take the words of the Biden campaign when asked about campaign workers actually present in Michigan asking to define "present."
Do your own research, I have.
Do your own research, I have.
aggiehawg said:
Believe what you will. I take the words of the Biden campaign when asked about campaign workers actually present in Michigan asking to define "present."
Do your own research, I have.
I am not disbelieving you, just commenting that it seems most people analyzing this election race feel Biden is going to get Michigan.
Pinche Abogado said:Sq 17 said:
I would not solely blame Mitt for the 2016 loss, Obama was going to be tough to beat he was the incumbent who won convincingly in 2012.
Romney was selected as the candidate to not put up any real fight. Romney allowed Obama to steamroll in the debates on purpose.
Wtf.
Romney trashed Obama in the first debate. And two years later we got to hear clips of Obama saying "The 1980's wants their Foreign Policy back" after he poopooed the 'Russia is our biggest geopolitical competitor'
Pumpkinhead said:aggiehawg said:
Believe what you will. I take the words of the Biden campaign when asked about campaign workers actually present in Michigan asking to define "present."
Do your own research, I have.
I am not disbelieving you, just commenting that it seems most people analyzing this election race feel Biden is going to get Michigan.
Trafalgar has Trump winning in Michigan.