The confidence on both sides is wild

15,702 Views | 190 Replies | Last: 26 days ago by singapore_sling
rtpAggie
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Rendered Fat
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Certainly is strange. I have no idea what to believe.
black_ice
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God help us
agsquirrel97
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AG
Good, good

I want a meltdown
4stringAg
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AG
One side of the other is going to be surprised.
black_ice
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agsquirrel97 said:

Good, good

I want a meltdown



74Ag1
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AG
All I see is one side
Reed10
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AG
I do think the over confidence on both sides is rather striking? It's very possible that there is a very engaged, enthusiastic Trump base that is showing up in all of the rally type events, cookie polls, registrations, etc.... and at the same time not indicate that Trump will win.

Conversely, the polls have tried to paint this "game over" type situation with Biden strolling to a victory, but they know the state level polls last time were wildly wrong with many at or below levels in 2016. You pair that with low enthusiasm and you'd think it cause them to be more modest in their predictions.

I just don't see it being a walk in the park for either candidate . The silent majority is the biggest factor to decide this race and It's impossible to gauge. no one really knows what will happen.
scottimus
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This is actually not that hard to imagine. It is very similar to academia.

You can fit a data set to your needs...the need to generate funding. All of these people have a vested interest in predicting/proving their own hypothesis.

Also like academia, hypotheses that do not come to fruition are usually left without consequence...and if the politics line up, you still get a PhD.
Jayhawk
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World historic levels of gaslighting for one side or another.
thomas20:29
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AG
scottimus said:

This is actually not that hard to imagine. It is very similar to academia.

You can fit a data set to your needs...the need to generate funding. All of these people have a vested interest in predicting/proving their own hypothesis.

Also like academia, hypotheses that do not come to fruition are usually left without consequence...and if the politics line up, you still get a PhD.
this - i agree
10thYrSr
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They thought she would never lose.
Stump02
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AG
Dems are very confident because they are relying on a rigged election. Me thinks Trump has already foiled it but has not made them aware........so Election Night surprise time.
aggiedata
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AG
Do they think we are going to fall for this BS?



LOYAL AG
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AG
She's citing polls that show serious signs of being very, very wrong. IMO their confidence is almost entirely fabricated from media polling which is trash. Is the ultimate echo chamber.
Prosperdick
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AG
Two things that hurt the Dems big time are campuses all over the country shut down and Dems need the college age vote and it's being reduced. The other factor is when you heavily rely on vote by mail they inherently run the risk of getting tossed for various reasons.

I think if ACB gets confirmed tomorrow and some of these election issues get knocked down it might be just enough for Trump to win.

Then again, there is a TON of LIV out there.
rtpAggie
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Stump02 said:

Dems are very confident because they are relying on a rigged election. Me thinks Trump has already foiled it but has not made them aware........so Election Night surprise time.


Foiled it?
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
JB99
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AG
They believe their polling is better this time. We shall see.
DallasAg32
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Republican side is confident because acurate polling shows we win. The polling does not account for cheating. The Dems are showing confidence to set the narrative as they plan on cheating as much as needed to win.
texaglurkerguy
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It seems like there's just been an overload of available information and it's become harder to distinguish signal from noise. Very easy for grifters to pick out data points and examples to support vastly different predictions, and easy for people to let their biases dictate which ones they listen to and believe. I know I'm probably guilty of it.
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
Kenneth_2003
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AG
I just don't get it. I want to say Trump landslide... On inte side, the rally numbers, the marches, the parades. On the other side, silence, gaffs, no ground game, no tangible numbers.... Even my FB fight pickers have gone silent.

I'm hopeful, but i'm not confident. I don't understand it in the least.
fightingfarmer09
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Every consultant wants to be the first to scream the correct prediction. Which just makes the data less clear.

When they are wrong no one remembers in 4 years. So they just repeat it.

I still think Biden wins. Something in my gut is unsettling. I pray I am wrong.
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
SociallyConditionedAg
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AG
gig em 02
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They've assembled a massive off shore voter fraud operation.

Why and how do you think Iran and Russia got voter information?

Why do you think they were demanding everyone get mailed a ballot?

Do you know what the penalty is for an Iranian citizen to submit fake ballots to the US from Iran? There is no penalty.
littlebigman
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Lots of talk about voter remorse. I am hoping those with remorse influence their friends to help them 'change' their vote. I'm a deplorable chump so you know which way i hope it goes.
Kenneth_2003
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AG
C@LAg said:

Kenneth_2003 said:

I just don't get it. I want to say Trump landslide... On inte side, the rally numbers, the marches, the parades. On the other side, silence, gaffs, no ground game, no tangible numbers.... Even my FB fight pickers have gone silent.

I'm hopeful, but i'm not confident. I don't understand it in the least.
rallies, marches, parades are not votes.

if you point to those as your bellwether, you are only fooling yourself.

The real populous politicking is now done online; the fat cats get the $20K plate dinners.


Yeah, but he's not doing those either. And 20K dinners buys airtime and jet fuel. I see some airtime, but no jet fuel.

If it's all behind the scenes... I dunno my friends, I just don't know.
C@LAg
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Sine poena nulla lex.
DirtyMikesBoys
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AG
Pretty wild to think back not long ago at all to the night of the SOTU address. To that point Trump, despite the weight of the world on his shoulders and what seemed like anyone who could doing everything in their power to see him fall, from 90 some odd percent negative media coverage, to unprecedented illegal spying by an outgoing administration, on and on it went.. he had the US in the strongest position it's potentially ever been in. Across the board regardless of color or creed the US was soaring. Economy, crushed ISIS, USMCA, two successful Supreme Court nominations, energy independence in conjunction with environmental cleanup that led the world. Tax cuts that benefited all. Historic support for AA causes HBC/opportunity Zones, etc. He stood up for us. He kept winning.

The prideful Democrats on the hill and in bureaucracy inside the beltway couldn't handle the unapologetic American exceptionalism. They couldn't handle their team not being responsible for all the W's he racked up. He embarrassed them.

So they double down. Throw a childlike tantrum and pass a partisan impeachment. "Because we'll show him!"

"He'll always be impeached," she said.

They've resorted to character assassination of decorated generals, respected judges, whatever it takes to "get him," they've tried.

And despite everything. It all failed.

What's left but to flick the off switch on America for nearly a calendar year. All the pain, divorce, suicide rates, businesses failing be damned. They were still dead set on "getting him."

I hope to my core that America rejects the vile vindictive behavior we've experienced throughout this first term, but if it all finally proves to be too much for one man to conquer, DJT is a lion. A patriot. A warrior. He's been through hell and fought every step of the way. I am beyond thankful for the man. It takes someone special to endure the scrutiny he has and not only function on a day to day basis, but keep his promises and dunk on Democrats heads over and over and over again.

God bless DJT. God Bless America.
Kenneth_2003
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AG
I regret that I have only one star to give.
fightingfarmer09
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C@LAg said:

Kenneth_2003 said:

I just don't get it. I want to say Trump landslide... On inte side, the rally numbers, the marches, the parades. On the other side, silence, gaffs, no ground game, no tangible numbers.... Even my FB fight pickers have gone silent.

I'm hopeful, but i'm not confident. I don't understand it in the least.
rallies, marches, parades are not votes.

if you point to those as your bellwether, you are only fooling yourself.

The real populous politicking is now done online; the fat cats get the $20K plate dinners.


The problem with online is it is an echo chamber.

Just tonight they had every singer and celebrity you could imagine for their big GOTV concert online. Our best count was 9k on Facebook and 9k on YouTube.

I'm not sure of where else it would have been streamed. But let's say you reached 50k viewers. The problem is 50-75% of those were already in your camp solid. And the rest were not significant contacts.

Ground games will win and lose elections. I'm curious what the campaign offices look like and how is their energy going into the finish.
APHIS AG
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agsquirrel97 said:

Good, good

I want a meltdown
The greater the expectation, the greater the failure.

The Democrats did the same thing in 2016 and the failure was glorious!!!
 
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