Pumpkinhead said:
Infection_Ag11 said:
It's hard to take him seriously when he has NM, Arizona, Virginia, NH and NC ALL going for Trump. Wining even 3 of those 5 would be shocking at this point. All 5 is just an incredible stretch.
Yep, hard to take him seriously. Looks more like a guy trolling for views and clicks.
It's not really that hard to understand. I've talked about this map as a possibility as far back as last year ,maybe even 2018.
He doesn't show VA going Trump. Not sure where you guys are seeing that.
So that leaves these key states:
Trump Holds everything he won last time
Trump Flips:
NH (lost by 3,000)(VEP t/o 72%)
NM (lost by 65,000)(VEP T/o 55%)
MN (lost by 44,000)(VEP T/o 74%)
NV (lost by 27,000)(VEP t/o 57%)
Before covid I was making the argument that if Trump ran on the economy and softer tone immigration platform in NV and NM he could win those states.
My reasoning on NM was because Gary Johnson, the former GOP NM governor turned libertarian presidential candidate would not be on the NM ballot this time. Nor is Evan McMullin. They combined for 10% or 80,000 NM votes out of 800,000 cast. There are also 45% of the NM VEP that did not vote. NM just had a GOP governor less than 3 years ago and the GOP held the NM House 2016-2018. 2018 elections were not good for NM GOP, but my point is that NM voters are not unaccustomed to voting GOP.
MN, Gary and Evan combined for 5.5% of the MN vote in 2016. Again, they are not on the ballot. Trump's campaign has done alot of ground work in MN. Prior to Gary and Evan in 2016, third parties had done below 1% in the previous 20 years. I believe Jo will be relegated back to the below 1% category in 2020 for third parties in MN. So the question becomes, can Trump's team hold their 2016 support and grow it using the Gary/Evan supporters and 2016 non-voters. There are reports from MN Trump rallies, that 30% of those in attendence, where non-voters in the 2016 election, and they registered to vote at the Trump rally. These rallies are thousands of people at a time.
NH, before covid I actually was pretty confident in Trumps ability to flip. But I think media coverage has hurt his chances in NH. The only thing that might save Trump in NH at this point is the VP debate from the other night. NH might be in play again with the aging population of NH.
NV, again, like NM, lots of non-voters in 2016. Trumps strength is old people. That's why NV is a relatively weak prospect to flip for Trump. Whereas NH and rust belt give Trump a better chance because of the older age of the populations. NV is in the younger half of the 50 states. The reason I has NV in the flip back in late 2019 was because of the strength of the economy. But if the signs of a surge of latino support are at all true, NV becomes my surprise flip at this point. But the Nevada governors continued restrictions in Nevada will keep the state's economy from bouncing back as fast as other areas of the country. If Trump can make the right case here, Nevada may actually vote for him. Although not a shocker because Adelson owns the paper. LV Review Journal again endorsed Trump this year.
I consider NV, NH, and NM long shots for Trump. But I very much can see in the data how he could flip these states and hold all states he won last time. MN has been easy to see as a possibility since 2016.
