New CDC Forecasts - Flu {Staff Edit}

12,162 Views | 132 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by EwingBarnes
HowdyTAMU
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Preliminary Cumulative Estimates of Hospitalizations in the U.S. 2019-2020 Flu Season



This is for the flu. Apparently a lot of people who are hospitalized for the flu actually die.

In fact, the CDC estimates that 23,000 to 59,000 flu deaths have occurred from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020.

Who will take the over for COVID-19?



Now, I wait for certain posters to better explain numbers to me.
Philip J Fry
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What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.
Premium
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Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.
HowdyTAMU
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Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.
Right on cue.
30wedge
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The CDC really nails down those flu numbers, lmao. Look at the site, huge ranges for flu illnesses, flu medical visits, flu hospitalizations, and as noted above, flu deaths.
Joe Exotic
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Do college educated people still think this is "just the flu"?
nhamp07
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Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.
0.5% death rate?

We are at 1.6% deaths/cases right now.

5,000,000 would be 80,000.

But deaths lag cases by a week or two. Death rate should theoretically go up.

How many deaths is the worth tanking the economy over?

flown-the-coop
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Bo Darville said:

Do college educated people still think this is "just the flu"?
Do college educated people think it's not?
Premium
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nhamp07 said:

Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.
0.5% death rate?

We are at 1.6% deaths/cases right now.

5,000,000 would be 80,000.

But deaths lag cases by a week or two. Death rate should theoretically go up.

How many deaths is the worth tanking the economy over?




If that's how you want to do the math then instead of 5,000,000 let's say 500,000 and 8,000 deaths.
HowdyTAMU
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Keep in mind that we're selectively testing for C19. This will statistically lead to much higher mortality rates since, one can presume, the highest risk patients will get the test.
Premium
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HowdyTAMU said:

Keep in mind that we're selectively testing for C19. This will statistically lead to much higher mortality rates since, one can presume, the highest risk patients will get the test.


This
AgLiving06
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How many cases of the flu this year? For comparative purposes?
annie88
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In fact, the CDC estimates that 23,000 to 59,000 flu deaths have occurred from October 1, 2019 to March 14, 2020.

This is every year. Every year.
the last of the bohemians
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Don't argue with climate change...er... CV fanatics
30wedge
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I would think a bunch of people in lab coats with pocket protectors could sort of narrow the range on deaths. Mighty large gap there.
HowdyTAMU
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AgLiving06 said:

How many cases of the flu this year? For comparative purposes?
What I think you want is tested and confirmed cases since we're trying to do "science" here, right? And, well, that's the data we have for C19.

If you scour the CDC site for that data, well, good luck. They are more interested in their estimates than actual data.
The_Fox
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nhamp07 said:

Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.
0.5% death rate?

We are at 1.6% deaths/cases right now.

5,000,000 would be 80,000.

But deaths lag cases by a week or two. Death rate should theoretically go up.

How many deaths is the worth tanking the economy over?


100K under 60. 5mil over 60.
ABATTBQ11
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Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.


What happens when it hits 50,000,000 because unlike the flu, there is no vaccine? SARS infected 60+ million, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that this does to.
Woody2006
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.


What happens when it hits 50,000,000 because unlike the flu, there is no vaccine? SARS infected 60+ million, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that this does to.

We didn't shut our economy down for SARS and we were fine.
Infection_Ag11
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Bo Darville said:

Do college educated people still think this is "just the flu"?


They're welcome to come take a tour through any tertiary referral ICU in this country, preferably without wasting any PPE since we're desperately short. You know, because it's "just the flu".
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
mazag08
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Woody2006 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.


What happens when it hits 50,000,000 because unlike the flu, there is no vaccine? SARS infected 60+ million, so it's not out of the realm of possibility that this does to.

We didn't shut our economy down for SARS and we were fine.


I've literally agreed with every single one of your posts the past 3 weeks.

Are we friends now?
Infection_Ag11
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And I apologize in advance for that being a bit snarky, it was a rough day.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
HowdyTAMU
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Infection_Ag11 said:

Bo Darville said:

Do college educated people still think this is "just the flu"?


They're welcome to come take a tour through any tertiary referral ICU in this country, preferably without wasting any PPE since we're desperately short. You know, because it's "just the flu".
I don't want the flu either, but I don't quit my job every October to avoid getting it.
FPS_Dough
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All the deaths from the economic strain no one will bat an eye on here.
Infection_Ag11
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HowdyTAMU said:

Infection_Ag11 said:

Bo Darville said:

Do college educated people still think this is "just the flu"?


They're welcome to come take a tour through any tertiary referral ICU in this country, preferably without wasting any PPE since we're desperately short. You know, because it's "just the flu".
I don't want the flu either, but I don't quit my job every October to avoid getting it.


I don't want the flu either, but I'm not afraid of getting it and I don't spend hours cumulatively every day donning and doffing full PPE to avoid it.

I've seen enough healthy men in their 30s gasping for air with a terrified look in their eyes to know this is something I really don't want. And I've seen enough nurses crying because of the fear of treating these people with inadequate protection (nurses who really don't give a second thought to running into a flu room without even a mask if needed) to understand how different this is.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Zobel
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Edit nm
FPS_Dough
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What percentage of men in their 30s will that happen too
Infection_Ag11
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FPS_Dough said:

All the deaths from the economic strain no one will bat an eye on here.


Which would all happen regardless after we shut things down in late-April when every major city in the country is like New York had we not done this early. Only then we'd have a lot more additional sick/dead people and more sustained economic difficulty after this was over.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Joe Exotic
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flown-the-coop said:

Bo Darville said:

Do college educated people still think this is "just the flu"?
Do college educated people think it's not?


Yes, they're called doctors and they are generally educated.
HowdyTAMU
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Can anyone explain why NYC is exploding and San Francisco, with a much higher connection to China and a slightly lower population density, is far behind?


I'll hang up and listen.
Infection_Ag11
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FPS_Dough said:

What percentage of men in their 30s will that happen too


Depending on which country's data you look at, up to 20% will become hypoxic. Now very mild hypoxia can be tolerated without supplemental oxygen if you are just lying in bed, but around 10% will need help.

For reference, for young people that's a 100x higher rate of "severe" illness than seasonal influenza.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Joe Exotic
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With community spread now firmly established recent Chinese travel is much less important.
Zobel
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https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3102477

Here.
Rossticus
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Premium said:

Philip J Fry said:

What do you want explained to you?

We are less than a week away from 500k cases at our current pace.


Let's say it gets to 500,000, that is 2,500 deaths. If it gets to 5,000,000 that is 25,000 deaths. This isn't worth shutting our economy down.


I hate the Washington Post but this article is actually encouraging. Attitudes within the medical community are starting to fall in line as well. Prioritize likely survivors, don't sacrifice the rest of us over silly idealism.

TLDR: DNR for all COVID carriers. Don't risk the rest of the population over a handful. It's better for everyone.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/25/coronavirus-patients-do-not-resucitate/?fbclid=IwAR1F2DRS3f6Ij8EX8OQ7wVsl6n3o3KJ5szRE--EfQ1iJ0ESbu0v3PDucZDw&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook
liberalag12
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There is a vaccine for the flu. If we didn't have a vaccine for the flu, this is what it would look like with numbers and deaths like the Coronavirus . That's why it's a pandemic. People also can carry the flu and be asymptomatic.

Gig'em
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