Surprising Cruz v Beto exit poll

biobioprof
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1997Aggie
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AG
That is very unexpected. Interesting. I'm not sure what to make of that.
titan
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S

Yes. Blaming the expats has overlooked the fact that it is the universities here -- and anywhere -- that are promoting socialism and all those stupid ideas. The age of the vote demographic probably matters more.
Laser Wolf
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It kind of makes sense that conservatives from CA who are tired of their bull**** would come to Texas. Maybe there is still hope for Texas if CA conservatives keep moving here.
biobioprof
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1997Aggie said:

That is very unexpected. Interesting. I'm not sure what to make of that.
Msybe poor people can't afford to move while rich people move here to get away from state income taxes?
Wendy 1990
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As these millennials age some of them will turn more conservative/moderate. It always happens. This good economy will create more conservatism.
vettmaster99
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Cali Conservative Refugees are Welcome! Socialist Democrats can stay in the mess they created!
dmart90
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Correlate that with age and i suspect it will be telling...
stardustag
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umm... that poll isn't very useful... someone who moved to Texas 30 or 40 years ago is a whole lot different than someone who moved to Texas last year. The poll doesn't show the break-out that matters.
biobioprof
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titan said:


Yes. Blaming the expats has overlooked the fact that it is the universities here -- and anywhere -- that are promoting socialism and all those stupid ideas. The age of the vote demographic probably matters more.
Here's the rest

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

The education numbers are not as skewed as you might guess. Beto won college grads overall, but only by 51-48. But Cruz won the respondents with a bachelors degree or less, while losing those with advanced degrees by 59-40.

It would be interesting to see what the breakdown is for the advanced degrees. I suspect O'Rourke won PhDs by even more, but those are swamped by MDs and lawyers and others.
titan
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S
Wendy 1990 said:

As these millennials age some of them will turn more conservative/moderate. It always happens. This good economy will create more conservatism.
Another reason to raise the voting age. You should be out in the economy before voting. College is a bubble with unreal economics. As usual, military excepted - -because they are out of the bubble the moment enlist.

Wycliffe_03
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biobioprof said:

1997Aggie said:

That is very unexpected. Interesting. I'm not sure what to make of that.
Msybe poor people can't afford to move while rich people move here to get away from state income taxes?


I honestly assumed the rich cocktail lib transplants were mostly libs. But the wealthy outer enclaves (Newport etc) do vote pretty republican.
waitwhat?
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I'm not sure I trust the sampling here when 34% of respondents reported $100k+ income.
waitwhat?
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On the "How long have you lived in Texas?" question 10% of respondents said less than 10 years, 32% said 10+ years but not native, and 58% reported "Born in Georgia."


This is just CNN CNNing. FAKE NEWS
law-apt-3g
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waitwhat? said:

On the "How long have you lived in Texas?" question 10% of respondents said less than 10 years, 32% said 10+ years but not native, and 58% reported "Born in Georgia."


This is just CNN CNNing. FAKE NEWS


suprise suprise suprise
e=mc2
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I live in NB and we have a ton of transplants from out of state. I've meet (25+) several since I moved here and have yet to meet a lib. From California, to Arizona, to Missouri. All conservatives.
Gap
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Out of curiosity, what was the racial breakdown of the voters in Texas in 2018 midterms versus 20 years ago?
Captn_Ag05
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The interesting breakdown to me would be to see the white, non-Hispanic breakdown for these categories.

The black population of the state was likely born in the state and the voting eligible Hispanic population is probably more likely born in the state as well (statistically whites much more likely to move as a result of work). These two born in Texas groups went heavily for Beto.
JW
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White women
Snicklepox
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dmart90 said:

Correlate that with age and i suspect it will be telling...


Not really. There's no R^2 value to indicate closeness of fit of the data to the trend line, but the correlation isn't as strong as some suggest.

-OCHWFLAKASSBRTTEFE-
Snicklepox
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titan said:


Yes. Blaming the expats has overlooked the fact that it is the universities here -- and anywhere -- that are promoting socialism and all those stupid ideas. The age of the vote demographic probably matters more.


I didn't have to take too many stats classes, but making an inference with no data leads to all kinds of problems. I'm 30, my wife is black/Hispanic, and we both voted straight ticket R this time around.
-OCHWFLAKASSBRTTEFE-
Bobaloo
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I'm in my 50s...born and raised in Texas. I'm still friends with most of the guys I grew up with. They are all college educated and successful. The vast majority are pretty hard core lefties. Great guys. We don't talk politics much anymore because we are polar opposites. So we stick to football, families and jokes....
Urban Ag
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1997Aggie said:

That is very unexpected. Interesting. I'm not sure what to make of that.
It's not that unexpected to me.

I'm a transplant. Was born and raised on the west coast by Texan parents. Came to Texas to attend A&M. Flirted with the idea of going back west after graduation, glad I didn't.

Lots of us came to Texas for higher education and stayed, or for better jobs/economic opportunity. We wanted to be Texans, not change Texas.

Next, Hispanics overwhelmingly vote liberal.

Finally, over the last 25 years I have been here I was watched the large metro areas morph in to LA, Chicago, Atlanta, etc. Our big cities really aren't any different than any other big city in America now.
JB99
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Maybe the socialist Texans will move to California.
Deats
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biobioprof said:




Stop with the moral victories
n/a

aggiejayrod
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My parents would fall into "moved to Texas" but are staunch conservatives who moved here from Michigan in 1970. Somewhat loaded question
Wabs
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What about people that were both born in Texas and moved to Texas? Say someone was born here, moved away when they were 20, then moved back to Texas when they were 45. Does this person get counted twice?

Beto supporters and MSM using twisted stats, clawing at moral victories........
The_Fox
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So the problem is with the young, non-whites, and the poor. This can be fixed by making it required that your yearly income level be over $100K to vote.
AggieUSMC
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I wonder what the breakdown would be for recent transplants i.e. people who've moved to Texas in the last 10 years. I'd be willing to bet its more liberal.
Bo Darville
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This is why I don't generally fear the Texas migration as others do. In fact, I see it as a way to mitigate the demographic changes. When you look at what goes into the decision to move it there's a lot involved. You're uprooting your family, leaving better weather, different culture, etc for work or better financial sense and housing costs. Those types of decisions are typically made by people who are conservative.
GE
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titan said:


Yes. Blaming the expats has overlooked the fact that it is the universities here -- and anywhere -- that are promoting socialism and all those stupid ideas. The age of the vote demographic probably matters more.
Blaming the local universities is probably taking it a step too far. I wonder if they have polling on how university educated people of different ages voted based on what schools they attended.
GE
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The_Fox said:

So the problem is with the young, non-whites, and the poor. This can be fixed by making it required that your yearly income level be over $100K to vote.
That's a good way to start an uprising.

How about just requiring people to be net tax payers? You pay more in taxes than you receive in direct government benefits or tax refunds and you can vote. If not, then you can't.

Having people who get more money from the government than they pay in vote is like having the customers of a restaurant set the prices. It just doesn't make sense.
stetson
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titan said:


Yes. Blaming the expats has overlooked the fact that it is the universities here -- and anywhere -- that are promoting socialism and all those stupid ideas. The age of the vote demographic probably matters more.

Exactly right. Academia is the single greatest threat to our republic.
Bunk Moreland
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How long have you lived in Texas?

Less than 10 years: 10%
10+ years, not native: 32%
Born in Georgia: 58%

2431 Respondents

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

Yeah I'd say this exit poll is FOS or there's a glaring error with the site.
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