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Of the 176 national holidays that commemorate an independence or statehood anniversary, 42 per cent are celebrated in July, August and September; a period that, to much of the world's population, is the hottest and driest of the year.

In chilly November, December and January, meanwhile, the share of global independence days is only 18 per cent.

As Pincus noted, before the 20th century wars were fought almost exclusively when it was warm out. Thus, if a secessionist rebellion broke out and was successful the victory was almost guaranteed to fall sometime before autumn.

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July 1, in fact, is one of the most crowded days on the calendar for national birthdays for the precise reason that it appears to be a favoured starting date for independence negotiators. Burundi, Somalia and Rwanda all similarly celebrate independence on July 1.

The date of Indian Independence, August 15, is even more random.

Lord Mountbatten, the last viceroy of India, considered it his lucky day since it was the anniversary of the end of WWII. Pakistan Independence Day, August 14, was picked so that Mountbatten could attend independence celebrations in both countries.

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