Series Preview: No. 4 Ags welcome Auburn to Olsen for three-game set

Who: Auburn (16-8, 1-5 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Thursday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Friday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 7 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Pitching matchups

Thursday: LHP Ryan Prager (5-0, 1.67 ERA) vs. RHP Conner McBride (3-1, 2.38)
Friday: RHP Tanner Jones (1-1, 4.70) vs. RHP Chase Allsup (1-1, 6.59)
Saturday: LHP Justin Lamkin (2-0, 1.48) vs. RHP Joseph Gonzalez (2-1, 7.56)

Scouting Auburn

Based strictly on season statistics, Auburn is at a disadvantage against No. 4 Texas A&M in most categories, both at the plate and on the mound. They are also last in the SEC at 1-5. However, that doesn’t mean the Tigers aren’t dangerous. It means the Plainsmen of Alabama have started the SEC campaign on a brutal stretch that included opening conference play against No. 9 Vanderbilt and facing top-ranked Arkansas last weekend. It’s understandable that a good Auburn team is 1-5 after that opening gauntlet. It doesn’t get any easier this weekend as the Tigers must travel to College Station to face the Aggies, who are 17-1 at Olsen Field this season.

Kelly Cothern, TexAgs

Coming into what figures to be a Thursday pitchers’ duel, Ryan Prager has been dominant at home, not allowing an earned run in 25.0 innings for a 4-0 record.

The highlight of this weekend will be Thursday’s pitching matchup between A&M’s ace Ryan Prager (5-0, 1.67 ERA) and Auburn righty Conner McBride (3-1, 2.38 ERA). McBride held his own against first-team All-American Hagen Smith last weekend, falling in a pitcher’s duel 1-0. Expect another low-scoring affair against the Aggies on Thursday. It will also be a critical game for the Tigers because the starting rotation has a steep fall-off in statistical performance after McBride. If A&M’s offense can jump on the Tigers’ ace early and nail down game one, that will set the tone for the rest of the weekend because the Aggies will have the clear upper hand the rest of the weekend. Friday starter Chase Allsup is struggling to regain his form from late 2023 when he emerged as a top arm in the rotation after several effective postseason appearances. He has been hit hard with a 6.59 ERA, giving up 34 hits in 28 innings. Opposing hitters are swinging at a .288 clip, and he has given up five long balls so far. Allsup better figure out his struggles before Saturday because the A&M offense will be even less forgiving than the other teams he’s faced to date. Game three starter Joseph Gonzalez has all of the physical tools at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds. D1Baseball listed him as the No. 28 prospect in June’s MLB Draft and a top 20 pitcher in the collegiate ranks this spring. However, he has had a dreadful opening to the 2024 campaign with a 7.56 ERA and a WHIP of nearly 2.00. He is giving up a lot of hits and walks, and that’s a bad combo against a power-hungry yet patient Aggie lineup.

At the plate, Auburn has respectable offensive numbers, scoring an average of 8.1 runs per contest with a solid slugging average of .531 and an on-base percentage of .413. It’s a very top-heavy lineup, with the top four hitters in order batting between .320 and .364. On the flip side, the bottom four batters are all hitting below .228. The offense is led by Cooper McMurray, hitting .350 with a team-high 10 home runs and a team-leading slugging percentage of .813. Not far behind is Ike Irish, with eight homers and 34 RBI and hitting at a .340 clip. The leading hitter on the team by average is Mason Maners at .364, but he doesn’t have the power and run production of McMurray and Irish. A&M pitching will have the luxury to pitch around the top of the order if needed with a quartet of struggling hitters down in the batting order.

If the Tigers do reach first base, they are very aggressive on the base paths, stealing 51 bags already this season. That’s more than double A&M’s totals in 2024 (25). A&M catchers will have their hands full in slowing down the Tigers on the bases. Finally, Auburn is a very average defensive team with a fielding percentage of .971. The Aggies come into the series fielding at an elite .985 rate.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The Aggies are cruising along with a 22-3 record and ranked No. 4 in the nation, but as we know in the SEC, one bad weekend can change a season narrative in 48 hours. The biggest storyline for A&M this weekend is the battle between Prager and McBride. The burden for a staff ace is setting the tone of the weekend and battling the opponent’s best arm. It takes more than throwing well. It takes fortitude and a mental toughness knowing that one bad pitch could be the deciding factor in a hard-fought pitching duel. We all know Prager can pitch a masterpiece on any given night, but can he stay in the fight and battle against a top pitcher every single weekend even when he doesn’t have his “A” game every outing? He did it on the big stage against Mississippi State, and if he can do it again vs. Auburn, that will be great news for the Aggies this weekend, with big advantages on the hill the rest of the series. Justin Lamkin was as dominant last weekend as we’ve seen him in a long time. If he can repeat that performance and show that striking out 12 batters in seven innings while allowing a single run is the norm and not the exception, this team will be competing at the top of the SEC and pushing for a national seed. All eyes will be on him to see if he can consistently pitch at an elite level.

Will Huffman, TexAgs

Jace LaViolette already has 33 career home runs. Entering Thursday, he is one round-tripper away from tying Steven Truitt for seventh on A&M’s all-time list.

At the plate, the Aggies have hit a bit of a lull offensively. Part of that is the start of SEC play against better pitching, but some of the hot bats at the beginning of the year have cooled off. Jace LaViolette has been a home run machine in early 2024, but his overall run production has slowed over the past 10 days. His average has slipped in that time from the .360s down to .315 entering the weekend. His numbers are still very good, but he has definitely slowed his pace. He has been hitting more pop-ups and high fly balls during this mini-slump and not so much getting to the top of the baseball and hitting hard line drives. It’s interesting to note that of his 28 hits, only nine have gone for singles. Most of his hits are majestic high flies that soar out of the park or land in the power alley. The power numbers are great, but as a two-hole hitter, he could be more effective learning to go to all fields and spraying the ball around the yard, as opposed to focusing on being a pull-side long-ball slugger. He does walk a lot, which is invaluable for a two-hole hitter having a first-team All-American hitting behind him. LaViolette is a great college power hitter. He’s so talented, but there is room for improvement going forward.

What can you say about Braden Montgomery? He doesn’t have a weakness at the plate. He can hit the deep ball on any pitch. He’ll take a walk if he doesn’t see a good pitch. He can hit to all fields. Montgomery and LaViolette together are the engine of A&M’s offensive machine. The question at this point is how does the staff set the batting order around these two difference makers.

First of all, you have to start with the idea that the engine may be evolving into a three-pronged motor that includes Gavin Grahovac. He’s up to eight home runs and 31 RBI in the leadoff role. Think about this: Grahovac has more RBI as a leadoff hitter than LaViolette behind him. His confidence as a powerful run producer is growing by the day. Hold that thought while I discuss Jackson Appel’s encouraging start as an Aggie. He has quietly become the team leader in batting average (.373) and on-base percentage (.543). He walks at a higher rate than Montgomery and LaViolette, and he has one of the lowest strikeout totals on the team (5). Grahovac doesn’t walk at the rate of Appel, but Appel lacks power, with three homers and 12 RBI. I know Jim Schlossnagle is having a lot of success with Grahovac at the top of the order, but I’m curious if the staff has put any thought into inserting Appel into the lead-off spot and moving Grahovac down to a power slot at No. 4. I like seeing Appel getting on-base, and I’d like to see the power of LaViolette, Montgomery and Grahovac driving him home. Anyway, another storyline for me is watching if Schlossnagle tinkers with his batting order as we start to see longer-term trends at the plate or if he sticks with the formula that has been successful to date.

What’s at stake this weekend

It’s still way too early to discuss the consequences of one weekend series, but in SEC play, teams need to win the home series because winning on the road is so difficult in this league. A&M has to bank several games over .500 in March and April because the month of May is absolutely brutal with road series at No. 6 LSU and Ole Miss, followed by a home finale against No. 1 Arkansas. This is a weekend the Aggies need to take advantage of a struggling (but talented) SEC opponent at home and get the series win at a minimum. However, a sweep would feel much better with so many SEC road games on the horizon. If A&M can get the kind of quality starts out of the rotation they got last week against Mississippi State, a sweep is certainly in the realm of possibility.