Series Preview: Olsen Field hosts top-25 series between Ags & Bulldogs

Who: No. 21 Mississippi State (16-6, 2-1 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Thursday: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
Friday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 2 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching matchups

Thursday: LHP Ryan Prager (4-0, 2.08 ERA) vs. RHP Evan Siary (0-1, 6.00)
Friday: RHP Tanner Jones (1-0, 4.76) vs. RHP Khal Stephen (2-2, 5.01)
Saturday: LHP Justin Lamkin (1-0, 1.57) vs. BHP Jurrangelo Cijntje (4-0, 2.70)

Scouting Mississippi State

As with several SEC teams in February, Mississippi State stumbled out of the gates and suffered several surprising early-season losses to the likes of Air Force, Austin Peay (twice) and Georgia Southern. However, the Bulldogs have started to hit their stride in recent weeks, winning 12 of their last 14 games. That includes two wins against No. 2 LSU in Starkville to kick off the SEC slate last weekend, despite losing Friday starter Nate Dohm to injury.

Barbara Gauntt/USA TODAY NETWORK

Chris Lemonis has at 183-99 record in six seasons at Mississippi State that includes the 2021 national title.

In Dohm’s absence, head coach Chris Lemonis started sophomore Evan Siary against LSU, and he was shelled for three runs on five hits in three innings. The right-hander is slated to take the hill for the Bulldogs on Thursday night. He’s 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA, so Texas A&M has an opportunity to go on the attack at the plate on Thursday. State will go with Purdue transfer Khal Stephen on Friday, and he also had a rocky SEC debut last weekend, surrendering five runs in two innings of work. Ironically, the Bulldogs’ current ace pitches on day three of a weekend series. Jurrangelo Cijntje is best known as the two-handed pitcher who can throw 90-plus mph with both his left and right arm. He’s a lot more than a novelty act with a perfect 4-0 record and 2.70 ERA. As a freshman, Cijente threw against the Aggies and did not allow a run in three innings. He’s a dominant strikeout pitcher with nasty stuff but can be erratic around the strike zone at times, leading the team with 16 walks. Nolan Stevens (2-0, 1.80 ERA) and Brooks Auger (2.00 ERA, two saves) lead a solid bullpen, but the starters will set the table one way or the other for the Bulldog hurlers this weekend. The Aggies have a slight statistical advantage over the Bulldogs, but both starting staffs struggled significantly in their SEC opening weekend.

At the plate, Mississippi State has the equivalent of Jace LaViolette and Braden Montgomery in the batting order. Sophomore Dakota Jordan is having an All-American caliber season so far, hitting .418 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI. He leads the team in virtually every offensive category, from slugging percentage (.924) to on-base percentage (.566), runs scored (28), walks (25) and a whopping 73 total bases. A&M pitching must keep the hitters in front of him off the bases and pitch around him when possible. The Aggies can’t let Jordan beat them. David Mershon (.380 batting average) and Connor Hujsak (.366) are tough outs, but both have combined for just three home runs as their run production pales in comparison to Jordan. Big things were expected from 2023 First Team All-SEC hitter Hunter Hines, but he stumbled out of the blocks in 2024, hitting .273 with four homers and only 21 RBI. He’ll get it turned around at some point in 2024. Overall, State has similar team offensive stats to the Aggies, with slightly less run production and power numbers.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

Aggie fans were feeling pretty good about the weekend starting rotation going into last week’s series with the Florida Gators. Ryan Prager came into his start in Gainesville with a 0.00 ERA. After a 2.1-inning outing where he gave up six runs, he left Friday’s game early with a 2.08 ERA. The big question everybody is asking is: Was this just a bad outing and an outlier, or did the left-hander wilt under the strong SEC competition? I guess we’ll find out on Thursday. Tanner Jones also struggled, giving up five runs in 2.1 innings in game two against the Gators. His ERA skyrocketed to 4.76. Justin Lamkin had the best outing of the three, lasting 4.2 innings and holding Florida’s explosive lineup to a pair of runs. Overall, the starters gave up 13 earned runs in 9.1 innings combined. Those numbers won’t win many SEC series. That brings us back to the original question every Aggie baseball fan is asking: Was last weekend an outlier or the reality against SEC-caliber competition?

Zoe Kelton, TexAgs

LHP Justin Lamkin’s 1.57 ERA now ranks as the best on the Texas A&M staff among qualifiers.

That same question can be asked of Shane Sdao, who dominated hitters early in the season and looked to earn the closer role by the end of February. However, he had two very shaky outings last week, including Sunday’s rubber match with the Gators when he gave up the two-run game-winning home run in the eighth inning of a tie ball game. On a positive note, Evan Aschenbeck continues to be rock solid in a middle relief role and is now the most trusted arm in the bullpen. He helped secure A&M’s lone win in Gainesville on Saturday. Chris Cortez showed signs of being effective, but his control is still a question mark. Josh Stewart showed some promise in the Saturday win. However, there are way too many question marks with the pitching staff after the trip to Gainesville. The Aggies better find some answers back at Olsen Field against Mississippi State, or it could be a long weekend.

At the plate, the Aggies are productive, averaging 9.5 runs per game. LaViolette has definitely been a power source, although you’d like to see more line drives off his bat as opposed to high-fly balls. Montgomery has been everything expected and more as an All-American. He’s one of the best offensive players in college baseball, sitting at a team-high 36 RBI and 10 home runs. Jackson Appel has surged over the past week and now leads the squad in batting average (.375). Gavin Grahovac is doing a great job as a freshman, hitting .325 with six long balls and 26 RBI. But aside from these two, this lineup is far too dependent on LaViolette and Montgomery for run production. A&M needs more offense from guys like Hayden Schott, Ali Camarillo, Kaedan Kent and the designated hitter position. LaViolette and Montgomery will eventually cool off, and somebody needs to step up in the bottom half of the order.

What’s at stake this weekend

Despite the struggles on the mound last weekend, A&M was one pitch away from leaving Gainesville with a series win. However, as I said last week at this time, losing a road series against one of the premiere teams in the SEC is not a big deal. Now, the scene switches to College Station, and the opponent is Mississippi State, coming off a huge series win over then-No. 2 LSU. It’s way too early to proclaim this series to be a must-win situation, but losing a home SEC series and going 2-4 is not something anybody wants to see, even in mid-March. There is a sense of urgency to get back to .500 (3-3) playing in front of the home crowd this weekend. More importantly, the Aggies must stabilize this pitching staff. The starters need to deliver a couple of quality starts and get the team into the sixth inning with a lead before letting Aschenbeck close out a three-inning save. Guys like Prager, Jones and Sdao need to get back to where they were two weeks ago and make a statement this weekend that last week’s struggles will not be the norm going forward. If this team hopes to get to Omaha and compete for a national championship, the pitching must be consistent and effective. Omaha-bound teams have quality starting pitching, and this rotation needs to show it this weekend.