Series Preview: No. 4 Aggies seek top-10 series win at No. 8 Florida

Also included above is a radio segment with Ryan Brauninger, Richard Zane and Scott Clendenin from Friday morning, previewing this weekend’s series at No. 8 Florida.

Who: No. 8 Florida (10-6, 0-0 SEC)
Where: Condron Family Ballpark – Gainesville, Florida
When:

Friday: 5:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 5:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Sunday: 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching matchups

Friday: LHP Ryan Prager (4-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. LHP Cade Fisher (1-1, 7.56)
Saturday: RHP Tanner Jones (1-0, 1.00) vs. RHP Liam Peterson (1-1, 5.06)
Sunday: LHP Justin Lamkin (1-0, 0.98) vs. LHP Jac Caglianone (2-0, 1.80)

Scouting Florida

The Aggies drew one of the most difficult assignments in SEC baseball, kicking off conference play at Condron Family Ballpark against the Florida Gators. Head coach Kevin O’Sullivan’s teams have won 13 consecutive regular season three-game series dating back to the 2022 season. Even more impressive, the Gators have won 12 of their last 14 SEC home series. Bottom line: These guys rarely lose at home, regardless of the competition.

Granted, Florida has struggled through the first three weeks of the 2024 season with a 10-6 record that includes losses to Saint Mary’s, Stetson, St. John’s and Central Florida. However, the Gators popped up on every preseason top-five rankings list, and the roster is loaded with high-end talent that will play in the big leagues one day. Thus, it’s a matter of time until O’Sullivan gets this squad operating at an elite level and competing for an SEC title and a trip to Omaha.

The reason for this year’s slow start is easy to identify. Starting pitching has been very erratic to date. The weekend starters have impeccable credentials and ooze talent, but there’s no denying the struggles with Friday night sophomore hurler Cade Fisher who comes into this series with a 1-1 record and 7.56 ERA. He has surrendered a whopping 22 hits and 16 runs in 16.2 innings of work in four starts. Despite earning Freshman All-American honors last season, Fisher has been hit hard and often with a WHIP of 1.56 and an opposing batting average of .310. He’s too good to struggle all season, but he’s coming into week one of SEC play on very shaky ground with not much success on the hill in 2024.

Dustin Safranek-USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M leads the league in ERA, and Florida sits in last. 

Saturday starter Liam Peterson is having his own struggles on the mound. In his last two starts against Saint Mary’s and Miami, the young freshman gave up nine earned runs, eight hits and five walks in just nine innings. Overall, he sports a 1-1 record with a 5.06 ERA, so he’s entering his first SEC start with some question marks. The one bright spot in the weekend rotation has been preseason All-American junior two-way star Jac Caglianone, who will be in the running for national player of the year. He’s been brilliant on the bump to date, with a sparkling ERA of 1.80 and a perfect 2-0 record. Opposing batters are hitting a sparse .101 average against the veteran left-hander with an impressive WHIP of 0.87. He’s a strikeout machine logging 27 punch-outs in just 15 innings. He’ll pose a huge challenge to the Texas A&M lineup.

Overall, A&M’s pitching staff has a significant statistical advantage over the Gators in every major category, including ERA (A&M – 2.01, UF – 5.72), WHIP (A&M – 1.00, UF – 1.45) and walks per game (A&M – 2.8, UF – 4.8).

Florida has an explosive middle of the batting order led by the aforementioned Caglianone, who also leads the team in hitting at .412 with five home runs and 16 RBI. However, the biggest power source is sophomore shortstop Colby Shelton, with nine homers and 21 RBI. Shelton has been on a tear, belting six long balls and driving in 13 RBI in his last six games. Not to be outdone is junior Ty Evans hitting .356 with four home runs and 17 RBI. Luke Heyman rounds out Florida’s version of Murderer’s Row with four long balls, 18 RBI and a team-leading 13 walks. With that said, the Aggies can match and exceed that run production with a potent lineup as well.

The Aggies have a statistical advantage at the plate. A&M leads Florida in team batting average (A&M – .320, UF – .300), runs per game (A&M – 10.0, UF – 8.7) and on-base percentage (A&M – .470, UF – .413). Both pitching staffs will be challenged this weekend.

Yes, the Aggies have a clear statistical edge going into this series, but SEC play is a whole new ball game against elite competition with high-stakes pressure on every pitch. Nobody truly knows how good a team is until the grind of the conference race begins and how squads react to pressure and adversity.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The Aggies are chasing history and riding high with a 17-0 start to the season. However, while the goal is a 3-0 weekend and a 20-0 run to start 2024, the Gators are simply too good and are playing in the friendly confines of their home park to expect a sweep.

I’m sure head coach Jim Schlossnagle will be satisfied if the Aggies can leave Gainesville winning two games on the road against the No. 8 team in the country. The best path to accomplish a series win is to jump on the Gators early and take advantage of the recent pitching struggles by Fisher and Peterson on Friday and Saturday. A&M certainly has the offensive capability to land a knockout blow against a couple of erratic Gator starting pitchers with a confidence problem at the moment. Sunday’s matchup against Caglianone could serve as the toughest assignment of the season and possibly all year. The Aggies will be behind the eight-ball if they go into Sunday’s finale needing a victory to win the series or even salvage a game on the weekend. It is imperative to take care of business early when the matchups are in A&M’s favor.

The top of the Aggie batting order is downright scary for opposing pitchers. Highly touted freshman Gavin Grahovac has been better than advertised. It’s rare to see a true freshman thrown into the important lead-off spot and the designated table setter for All-Americans Jace LaViolette and Braden Montgomery. He’s put himself in the discussion to be a freshman All-American, hitting .344 with four homers, 20 RBI, 26 runs scored and an on-base percentage of .481.

Grahovac would be the headline of this young season if it weren’t for the two-headed monster of LaViolette and Montgomery. They’ve combined for 16 home runs, 56 RBI and 36 walks. The pair leads the team in virtually every offensive category, from OPS to slugging percentage to on-base percentage. They serve as the engine to this explosive offense averaging 10 runs a game.

The offensive production drops off in the bottom half of the order, but there are still veterans like Ted Burton (.360 avg., .660 slug.) and Jackson Appel (.333 avg., .518 OBP) lighting up the stat sheet at the plate. It’s worth noting that Burton was removed from the lineup on Tuesday against Sam Houston with what appeared to be a minor ailment. Also, Travis Chestnut and a couple of bullpen arms are battling some injuries, so that’s a storyline to follow this weekend.

On the mound, the big question is whether the incredible early season performance by the weekend starting rotation will continue against the best offensive lineup the trio will face to date. How do they handle a step-up in competition on the road? Also, a few relievers in the bullpen got roughed up in Sunday’s Rhode Island finale and Tuesday’s Sam Houston battle. Shane Sdao looked unhittable in the first two weeks of the season and was evolving into a bullpen stopper until his disastrous outing against the Rams on Sunday. Was this just an outlier on the season, or is Sdao battling some consistency issues? We’ll get the answer to this question this weekend against the powerful Gators. Evan Aschenbeck has been the most trusted arm out of the bullpen this season (and last season), but the staff will need several more consistent relievers in this meat-grinder of a league. Who will take that step and hang tough on the road in Gainesville — Chris Cortez, Brad Rudis, Josh Stewart, Brock Peery, Sdao? 

What’s at stake this weekend

I’m not going to get dramatic and say the season is on the line in week one of a long SEC gauntlet. However, every team wants to jump out to a quick start and set the tone for the season. That’s easier said than done when your conference opener is on the road against one of the best and most talented rosters in the SEC. I think the goal this weekend is to play good, clean, competitive baseball and let the chips fall where they may. I think this team can digest just about any result from the weekend.

It won’t be the end of the world if A&M loses a couple of games this weekend, and it won’t be time to celebrate if they win the series or even if they sweep Florida. It would be a big statement to go into Gainesville and be the first team since Tennessee in April 2022 to win a weekend series. Still, this is a long season, and there will be 27 more games against elite talent, whether this team leaves Florida 3-0 or 0-3.

Now, don’t get me wrong, it would be nice to win multiple games, but please don’t go off the deep end and proclaim the Aggies’ national championship favorites if they return with a good result. Also, don’t melt down if the weekend doesn’t go according to our hopes and expectations. Either way, it’s a long season. I just want to see good, sound baseball played. That will pay off in the long run.