Key quotes from Bill Connelly's interview
“The Texas A&M-UCLA game is on my list of games that I wish were in week three. That way we could focus on it a bit more. It is going to be a hectic weekend from start to finish, but just from a storylines perspective it is certainly up there. Obviously, the first month of the season is going to define a lot of things for A&M and I think we are all pretty curious about that. Then UCLA with the star quarterback with a new offensive coordinator, there is something interesting there, too.”
“Preseason poll rankings are a number of things, and they are not really useful for the end of the season. If they are trying to send a message or if they are skeptical, that is perfectly fine. If I am A&M, I think I would rather start outside of the poll and work their way in. It has been weird for A&M these past two years. The causes have been different, but it is basically the exact same thing. You have a strong September, and they could certainly use another one this season, and then after that then the skepticism may remain even if they do well at first.”
“If A&M has a strong September, it will mean they will have passed a few different tests. The UCLA game is pretty unique in starting the season against a pretty experienced squad. The game against Auburn will be interesting because they are a desperation squad and Gus Malzahn is on the hot seat a little bit this year. I also think that Arkansas is going to be good again. This schedule will not be much different than last year. Arizona State was supposed to be much better than they were. I think UCLA is more likely to stay at that level than Arizona State was last year, so it will be a bit of a bigger test than last season. If they start 4-0 or 5-0, that is all you can ask for.”
“This is the first experienced A&M team in about four years. There is something to be said of that alone. There isn’t a unit where people are hoping that some freshmen come through. Both sides of the ball are experienced, granted the quarterback is experienced elsewhere, but if you are counting that obviously there is tons of depth in the skills core. The offensive line may be less experienced, but there are still some seasoned pieces there. Then the defense is not just freshman and sophomores anymore, so that is the biggest thing that I noticed. This makes A&M a more stable and steady team overall. The question is can they do well against this schedule? A top-20 team that could probably go 8-4 and maybe 9-3 against that schedule. Not only will A&M have to build and sustain a higher level, they have to win some big games as well.”
“Texas A&M was weird last year. Disorienting to see the defense carrying a lot more of the weight last season because the offense was letting them down. The quick explanation for the numbers I use, first of all they are adjusted for opponent, which I thin matters quite a bit. If you play a lot of good defenses, your numbers are going to be mediocre and you will grade out of it. The big plays really, really weren’t there and it was confusing to see so few big plays in the run game. If Kyler Murray wasn’t making the big play then there weren’t any. Then the passing game had a few big plays, and we know what Josh Reynolds is capable of. The numbers weren’t there. There wasn’t confidence, there weren’t big plays, they would get into the red zone and they averaged four points per scoring opportunity, which was 100th, and even if you adjust for opponent it still only is 72nd. Other than special teams helping to create good field position, the offense just was not very reliable.”
“I like Mazzone and I think that he is a steady hand and does a pretty decent job of finding out what his offense can do, and doing it. That only works if you can figure out the things that the offense can do. I think that was one of the major problems last year, that they started leaning on a very small base of plays because they didn’t trust anybody else. From that you eventually start not being able to trust those plays either. The line coach is obviously going to be the big key this year. The run blocking, from a stat perspective, wasn’t that bad.
The A&M run game was pretty efficient overall. The problem was: A, you were leaning on a passing game that never really clicked, and B, those efficient plays if the most important thing. It is good to be efficient. Getting five yards on second and first down, getting three yards on second and five, being able to stay ahead of the chains is important, but they were getting exactly five yards on first down. They were never getting more, they were never breaking off big plays, and that required freshman and sophomore quarterbacks to run an error free drive for eight or ten play and that is very hard to do.”
“I think the biggest thing is going to be the rapport built between Trevor Knight and the receivers. I think if you have that and a reasonably efficient run game, maybe Keith Ford adds a little bit from a big play perspective, I think the run game will be able to get those five or six yards at a time, I just think that the question of if Mazzone can call what he wants because Knight has connected with Kirk, Seals-Jones, and all of the receivers. The talent is there. If you look at the two or three top plays from these receivers, it would be a spectacular highlight video. You just don’t see them very often like they are a dis appearing act. So, I think the biggest sign of comfort if I am an A&M fan is watching Trevor Knight throw relatively efficiently, going out and completing 60-65% of his passes to these receivers, and maybe at some point break a tackle and go for a big play.”
“Even with Dunning’s injury, it could be worse. I would expect to see an awesome pass defense again. In my opponent adjusted numbers, they were second in the country in passing defense in the S&P+. That was both because of the secondary and because of the incredible pass rush. Granted you still have to leverage opponents into those passing down situations, but once they were there A&M was awesome last season. That was a significant turnaround considering the defensive coordinator; you would kind of expect that. We are used to seeing Coach Chavis very good, aggressive pass defenses with the big attacking nickel backs, that is one thing he is really good at. That leaves the run defense and it improved, too.
The problem is that they were so bad in 2014 that ranking 82nd in rushing S&P+. From a defensive perspective that is where things have to continue to improve. They improved as a given half would go on, they were able to adjust and really start to figure an offense out as the given half ensued, but early in the first quarter and to a certain degree, early in the third you could run the ball on them. That is something they have to improve. They have the experience to do it, they have a seemingly strong linebacking corps that is a little healthier this time around. It has to step up, that is the next step for them.”
“The size is first of all very impressive with both Mack and Henderson. They are also a sophomore and junior now, which is the other piece of the puzzle. You aren’t alternating between really young guys and experienced guys who probably aren’t naturally big enough. That experience should help a lot. For everybody health is a concern. You are a couple of injuries away from having problems, but that goes without saying. Kingsley Keke is big, too, so it seems that size wont be an issue. Size isn’t the only piece of the puzzle but seems to be a strength, especially if Garrett continues to improve his run defense. He has 7 non-sack tackles for loss, which is pretty decent. That is the next area for him to improve on this year.”
“Chavis is the best at utilizing the nickel position on a lot of different ways. When you think back to LSU, he doesn’t need a 205 pounder but if he is just as fast at 205, then that adds a little bit more. Donovan Wilson had eight tackles for loss and broke up eight passes. Very few in the country have that combination as a sophomore playing for his defensive coordinator for the first time. That is a very good sign. The pass defense will be really tough. If you can’t run against A&M, you are really going to struggle. We will just have to see how well people can run against A&M.”
“I have learned not to think about replacing kickers and punters that much because every time a team loses a kicker and brings in a JUCO guy or someone form Australia, fans will always tell me about how it is not a concern. You never really know until you see them make a kick. Punting maybe is a little more reliable although the standard for punting is really high. Now that I saw that, A&M was very interesting last year. They averaged 48 yards a kick but in terms of my punt efficiency, which defines the success level for every single punt and whether you hit it or not, because of the return game, A&M only ranked 54th in the success rate numbers. So they were giving up big returns whenever there were returns. They still have that to improve on, and there was a couple of big legs in special teams but there is no guarantee that the new guys will be able to hit that mark.”
“In the preview itself, I had A&M with 6.7 wins. That is a really conservative estimate because that is based on the probability so if you have a 70% chance of winning a game, that it pretty good but you only get .7 for that. That is the first thing to keep in mind. The schedule is really interesting because of the number of toss-ups, but that is life in the SEC West. Basically A&M is looking at 4 likely wins, 2 likely losses and then 6 games with the won probability between about 39-49%. Those are basically a toss up, with a slightly weighted coin maybe, but those are toss up games. You think about the number of directions that this season could go with the head or tails there, it really is going to be special. Four of those games happen in the first six games overall.”
“Potentially being fired is part of paying guys a lot and coaching in the SEC. I can point out that you can have a top-20 season and still end up 8-4, but someone is losing a lot of money. Some really well paid coach is going to finish last in the SEC West this year.”
“There are a bunch of swing games that could tilt the SEC one day or another. With A&M it starts with UCLA and Auburn. You just think about 3-0 versus 1-2 right there. The changes might not take very long if you go 1-2, but again I think this team should be more stable, it is just a matter of the toss up games. I talked myself into this team a little bit because of the experience level. You step back and realize how long it has been since they had that. But Texas A&M’s season is a nervous way to start.”
“My projections have UCLA 12th and I think I had them at about 20th or so. I think I have them lower than I should. People judge last season to harshly considering the defensive injuries and they were starting a true freshman quarterback, granted he was a good true freshman quarterback. When things went wrong, a couple more things went wrong before he was able to rectify that. This defense should have maturity, they get Eddie Vanderdoes back, and they got to prepare for losing Myles Jack by losing him for the last part of the season. They lost their offensive coordinator, and I like Mazzone and he fit there, but we will see what they will do without him. An injury at quarterback or wide receiver could be pretty dangerous.”
“Mazzone knowing information about UCLA certainly wont hurt. From a numbers perspective I don’t really take coaching changes into account. I have tried to find out a lot of different ways to analyze it. It is basically zero sum. For every food one there is a bad one. It has been really hard to figure out a way to account for that. There is no question that in this very specific matchup, A&M’s defense gets better at the halves progress. If you didn’t catch them early it was tough to score on them. That will be a pretty tough test for UCLA. I thin Soso Jamabo, and I like Kenneth Walker. He is one of the receivers that I like. They do lose four of the five receiver targets. That is going to put a lot on Josh Rosen, and there is no doubt about that. I think by the end of the season the offense will have figured some things out and maybe the defense will be able to hold on until them. Getting Fabian Moreau back will certainly help. Considering it is UCLA and A&M, it is not quite what we expect and be a very low scoring game.”
“I wouldn’t see Josh Rosen in New York as a Heisman finalist because I think that UCLA will lose a few too many games for that. He really is factory made. His footwork is really good. They put a lot of responsibility on him last year because Paul Perkins started struggling with injuries a bit. He looks the part and seems to be able to control the game. I would expect to see that a bit more this year. Starting with a really good pass defense on the schedule isn’t good for them.”
“They have a toss up against A&M, they have a toss up against USC, and Stanford and BYU aren’t that far away. Technically, they have at least a 51% win probability in every single game, and that is with them projected 12th. I don’t quite see that, but they do have potential for a big season. Even if they lose to A&M, if they cant turn around and beat BYU and Stanford they will be in pretty good shape.”
“I do come back to the point that the UCLA-A&M game will be relatively low scoring. The pass defense will be able to keep Rosen in check to a certain degree. I think Moreau, Marcus Rios, Jaleel Wadood, and Randall Goforth, I think that they do have a good secondary. The key is going to be finding out any sort of offensive rhythm. Maybe that comes on the ground and leaning on four, five or six yards at a time on the ground, but at some point you are going to have to pass the ball and it will be interesting to see of they can do it. Everyone knows they have the parts to do it, they just didn’t do it last year.”
“I think this is a good year for two teams from the same conference to get into the College Football Playoff. I know we are seeing that prediction a lot. It is not very unique, but I think that in the PAC 12 that everyone will beat each other up a bit. I am not really sure about the Big 10, so you are probably looking at the SEC champion, which will probably be Alabama, a bold pick. I think Clemson and Florida State could end up in a 11-2 or 12-0 situation one way or the other. The other team I was feeling good about was Notre Dame until the last couple of weeks. Maybe that means Oklahoma has a bit of an advantage, or if TCU can beat Oklahoma maybe the Big 12 champion has an advantage there. The fourth spot I am not really sure on a the moment.”
