Status quo is rarely maintained.
The tide is rising or it is falling. Day turns to night. Night turns to day. Summer leads to fall, which leads to winter and then to spring.
Typically, you’re either moving forward or starting to decline.
That’s especially the case in college football. The constant turnover of players and coaches and shuffling of opponents dictate that there will be change.
Change can be good. Improvement can be attained. Production can increase.
But then, change could result in less talent, more struggles and decreased production.
With that in mind, we look back to see how Texas A&M fared in seven statistical categories last season. Then, we predict whether A&M will be over or under that total in 2016.
Here are our over/under predictions. Let’s see if they match yours.
Wins
• Last season total: 8
• Prediction: Over
The Aggies posted eight victories last year with a team that wasn’t as good as this one should be.
Lindsay Caudle, TexAgs
Receiver Christian Kirk enters 2016 looking to improve upon his stellar freshman campaign.
Christian Kirk, Keaton Southerland, Richard Moore, Daylon Mack and Kingsley Keke either started or got significant playing time as true freshmen. They figure to be improved as sophomores. Otaro Alaka’s return from injury will boost the beleaguered linebacker corps.
The defense is in its second year under John Chavis. The coaching staff is presumably better and more professional.
The Aggie roster in infested with future pros and includes stars in Myles Garrett, Armani Watts, Josh Reynolds and Kirk.
There is more leadership, too. Trevor Knight is a mature quarterback.
The schedule may be a little more difficult than last year, but this team should be good enough to handle it.
Turnovers lost
• Last season's total: 24
• Preditction: Under
Two dozen turnovers is just unacceptable. Most were committed at the quarterback position. Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray both threw seven interceptions, and Jake Hubenak had one. Quarterbacks were also responsible for four of nine lost fumbles.
Those totals should shrink with a senior quarterback at the helm. Trevor Knight did throw a dozen interceptions as Oklahoma’s starting quarterback in 2014, but he was a sophomore in his first year as a starter. Here’s betting he’ll be more efficient and less likely to make mistakes as a senior under Noel Mazzone’s guidance.
Christian Kirk lost three fumbles last season. Freshmen make freshmen mistakes. He’ll be better in that area as a sophomore.
Sacks
• Last season's total: 34
• Prediction: Over
The Aggies were tied at 24th in the nation in sacks amassed last season. That’s not bad. But A&M had one of the nation’s best pass-rushers in Myles Garrett, and 23 other teams still got to the quarterback more often.
Lindsay Caudle, TexAgs
Defensive end Myles Garrett hopes to record 20 sacks as a junior.
That won’t be the case this year for several reasons. First, look for Garrett to exceed his total of 12.5 sacks from last season. He’s set 20 as his goal.
Second, opposite end Daeshon Hall should improve his total of seven. Remember, four came in the first game against Arizona State.
Third, A&M projects to have a better inside rush with Daylon Mack and Kingsley Keke at tackle.
Also, many A&M opponents have rebuilt offensive lines. Ole Miss is replacing all five starters. Arkansas lost three. Auburn and LSU must replace both offensive tackles. UCLA and Mississippi State have three new starters in the offensive line, and so do Alabama and South Carolina.
But the main reason to project the Aggies to record more sacks is that they figure to be better against the run.
Opponents weren’t forced to pass often last season because they could run so effectively against the Aggies.
Alaka’s return from injury, a bulked up Shaan Washington and the predicted emergence of Mack and Keke at tackle should significantly bolster A&M’s run defense.
That would not only force opponents to pass more often, but also put them in more obvious passing situations, allowing Garrett, Hall and blitzing safeties or linebackers to be even more aggressive.
Those factors will contribute to a spike in sacks.
Sacks allowed
• Last season's total: 37
• Prediction: Under
Thirty-seven is an unacceptable number. A&M was ranked 107th in the nation in this category last season.
Blame it on some players being out of position. Blame it on inexperience at some spots. Blame it on the lack of a running game. All of those were contributing factors.
Lindsay Caudle, TexAgs
Offensive line coach Jim Turner will bolster a front that under-performed last season.
The return of offensive line coach Jim Turner will help. The Aggies allowed just nine sacks throughout 2011, the most recent season he spent in College Station.
Also, Keaton Sutherland, who struggled at times as a true freshman, should be better as a sophomore. Left tackle Avery Gennesy played well in 2015. He should be better this year.
Furthermore, the Aggies project to run more often and more effectively under Mazzone. That may reduce the number of passing attempts, as well as the number of obvious passing situations.
Passing yards
• Last season's total: 3,323
• Prediction: Over
True, A&M is going to run more, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the passing game won’t be as productive. Indeed, it may just make the passing game more efficient.
A&M quarterbacks Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray and Jake Hubenak combined to throw for just over 3,300 yards in 2015. That’s an average of 255.6 yards per game – good, but certainly not great.
Although A&M aspires to run more often, the fact remains the strength of the offense is the receiving corps with Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil.
Of course, Trevor Knight has to get them the football with consistency. That shouldn’t be an issue.
As a starter at Oklahoma in 2014, Knight passed for 2,300 yards despite missing three games with a neck injury and missing parts of other games. Had he played the entire season, he was on pace to throw for 2,990 yards.
Brandon Jones, TexAgs
Quarterback Trevor Knight will have a set of elite wide receivers to throw to in 2016 – something he never had during his time at Oklahoma.
Knight didn’t have near the game-breaking receiving threats at OU that he has at A&M.
Also, in each of the past five seasons Mazzone’s quarterback has thrown for more than 3,000 yards.
That doesn’t guarantee anything, but with that track record, it’s no stretch to project Knight could pass for 3,500 yards or more.
Running back yardage
• Last season's total: Tra Carson rushed for 1,165 yards
• Prediction: Under
Carson’s performance in 2015 has been underappreciated, and there is an assumption that Keith Ford will easily surpass Carson’s production.
Ford certainly provides the big-play element that Carson did not and will likely run behind an improved offensive line, but rushing for 1,165 yards is no easy feat.
In fact, Carson’s total was the highest amassed by an A&M running back since Greg Hill rushed for 1,339 yards in 1992.
Ford will get the majority of the carries, but A&M has more depth at running back than a year ago. Trevor Knight is a threat to run, too, which will take carries away from Ford.
Tight end receptions
• Last season's total: 3
• Prediction: Under
Perhaps the smart choice would be over. After all, three catches (two by Jordan Davis and one by Caden Smith) sets the bar very low.
Furthermore, Mazzone’s track record shows he likes to throw to the tight end. UCLA’s Thomas Duarte had 53 catches last season.
But Duarte was much better than any tight end A&M has on the roster.
The Aggies added Kalvin Cline, a graduate transfer from Virginia Tech. However, he only caught three passes for the Hokies.
Alex Parker, TexAgs
Offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone won't have much to work with at tight end during his first year in Aggieland.
Also, it doesn’t seem likely that a big receiver like Ricky Seals-Jones would be taken off the field so a tight end could be targeted.
Of course, the caveat is Seals-Jones could be moved to a tight end position in certain formations. But he’s still technically a receiver, so for this discussion his catches won’t be listed as tight end receptions.
Maybe the Aggies will go to the tight end frequently, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
