Stock Market: Five big questions facing Aggie Football in 2016

The mark of a successful stockbroker is to anticipate trends and fluctuations in the market and to make prudent decisions to buy or sell.

At least, that’s what is supposed to happen. When I bought stocks, I just got broker. But that’s another issue, entirely.

Today, we’re taking stock of Texas A&M football.

We’re considering five important questions facing the Aggies in 2016. We’re trying to anticipate possible trends and fluctuations that could occur during the season and make prudent choices as to whether we’re buying or selling.

Of course, not all stockbrokers think alike. That’s why some guys get rich in stocks, and some guys don’t.

You can decide whether you’re buying or selling, but here are my recommendations.

By the way, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Will Texas A&M defeat UCLA in the season opener?

Buying: There will be a lot of hype about UCLA. An ESPN article already has the Bruins tabbed as one of the “surprise” teams of the season. They do have an emerging star in sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen, and NFL-caliber defensive tackle Eddie Vanderdoes is back from injury. UCLA well could be raked among the top 20 or top 15 when the season begins.

Of course, Arizona State was ranked 15th last year when it opened the season against the Aggies and fell, 38-17. This could be very similar.

Look for Myles Garrett, Daeshon Hall and Daylon Mack to win the battles against a UCLA O-ine breaking in three new starters. They'll keep Rosen under constant pressure. UCLA is debuting a lot of new receivers, too.

The Bruins return the majority of their starters from last year’s defensive unit, but that unit was soft against the run. Vanderdoes will help there, but the absence of DT Kenny Clark — a first-round pick — will hurt. A&M figures to run more effectively this year, too.

Will Texas A&M win enough to keep Kevin Sumlin’s job secure?

Buying: I’ve maintained throughout the offseason that most of A&M’s SEC opponents have more issues and questions than the Aggies do. That hasn’t changed.

The Aggies also catch Tennessee at home after the Vols play consecutive contests against Florida and Georgia and before their annual rivalry game against Alabama. That’s a classic trap game.

A&M has wins over Prairie View A&M, New Mexico State and UTSA in the bank. It will be favored against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State. After that, the Aggies need to at least break even in the other six games against UCLA, Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU.

The Ags would have been 12-1 last season if they had scored at least 30 points in every game. The defense should be even better this season. The offense should be, too.

Nine victories doesn’t seem out of the question. A tenth could come in a bowl game. Coaches don’t get fired after 10-win seasons.

Well, except for Mark Richt and Bobby Petrino.

Will Texas A&M win the SEC West?

Selling: The Aggies could be a factor in the West. They could win it if Trevor Knight proves to be an effective quarterback, if the offensive line makes significant improvement, if the running game is bolstered, if the run defense makes gigantic strides and if the retooled kicking game is reliable.

That’s a lot of "ifs."

A&M will likely have to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa and finally solve the LSU puzzle to win the division. The Aggies have the potential to do both, but making it happen is another thing. This is a matter of "I’ll believe it when I see it."

Will Trevor Knight start every game?

Buying: For several reasons – be it suspension, injury, performance or transfer – Texas A&M has had six different quarterbacks start games over the past three seasons. Not since Johnny Manziel in 2012 has the same quarterback started every game for an entire Aggie football season.

This year will be different for several reasons. Knight is not a character risk. There will be no (alleged) illegally signed autographs, no violations of team rules and no threats to transfer. He is, after all, a senior.

Performance could be an issue, but the feeling here is that he’ll be effective under offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s guidance.

Knight made some poor and costly decisions in 2014 as Oklahoma’s starter and missed games due to injury. However, an older quarterback is less likely to make mistakes than a first-time starter.

Also, he has more big-play threats to work with in A&M’s offense than he did at OU.

If he stays healthy – and the bet here is that he will behind an improved offensive line – he’ll take every snap and have a successful season.

Will Texas A&M field a top-15 defense?

Selling: I’m buying the idea that A&M’s defense will be much improved once again. The ends are elite. The safeties are as good as anybody’s. The defensive tackle position should be better than at any time since A&M joined the SEC.

But the linebacker play remains a reason for concern. No doubt, the Aggies will be better at linebacker, but by how much? I’d have bought in completely had Kevin Sumlin proclaimed this year’s defense will ranked among the nation’s top 30. But top 15?

Consider these stats: Of last year’s top 15 defensive teams, 13 ranked among the nation’s top 30 in rushing defense.

Penn State, at 43rd, had the lowest-ranked rushing defense among the top 15 defensive units. The Nittany Lions allowed an average of 151 rushing yards per game.

By comparison, A&M was 108th in the nation in rushing defense, averaging 213.7 rushing yards allowed.

Those numbers would suggest the Aggies must allow an average of 62 fewer rushing yards per game to rank among the nation’s top 15 in total defense.

They must dramatically reduce that rushing total while facing LSU’s Leonard Fournette, Tennessee’s Jalen Hurd, Auburn’s Jovon Robinson and whoever Alabama lines up deep in the backfield.