The Juncture: Texas A&M's opportunity & Alabama's test

It’s a crucial test.

It’s a lawyer’s bar exam. It’s a doctor’s USMLE exam. It’s Thornton Melon’s oral exam in “Back to School.”

That’s what Alabama represents to Texas A&M on Oct. 17.

Pass that test — beat the Crimson Tide — and all the grandiose possibilities for the 2015 football season immediately become probabilities. The Southeastern Conference West Division, the SEC championship, the College Football Playoff, the national championship … they’re all within reach.

Pass that test and A&M is instantly in the national championship picture. Win that game and talking heads and writers all over the country will be projecting the Aggies into the playoff field.

Of course, other obstacles will remain. Trips to Ole Miss and LSU will loom large. But what do we really know about those football teams?

It’s true Ole Miss beat Alabama. It’s also true that victory was gift-wrapped by five Alabama turnovers, a fluke touchdown pass and Nick Saban’s curious decision to start overmatched Cooper Bateman at quarterback ahead of Jake Coker.

Since then, Ole Miss struggled to beat Vanderbilt and was blown out by Florida. The juggernaut Ole Miss offense produced a mundane 37 points in those two games. The running game is questionable. The offensive line is average. The defense has been weakened by injuries.

Meanwhile, LSU has its share of questions, too.

Running back Leonard Fournette is obviously the best offensive player in college football and may have the Heisman clinched before November. But the Tigers have been woefully one-dimensional. Quarterback Brandon Harris may not be able to rescue them if Fournette is held to 155 yards.

In fact, when Fournette was held to 159 yards the Tigers escaped with a 21-19 victory over Mississippi State because the Bulldogs missed a last-play field goal.

Additionally, the LSU defense doesn’t appear as strong as those units once supervised by John Chavis. Lowly Eastern Michigan went into the fourth quarter trailing LSU just 30-22.

Beating Alabama is, and almost always has been, the key to winning the SEC’s game of thrones.

A&M is capable.

Kyle Allen is developing into a first-rate quarterback. He’s passed for 680 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in SEC play. Receivers Josh Reynolds and Christian Kirk are among the most dangerous big-play threats in the country. The offensive line is steadily improving. The defense has made significant strides under Chavis and figures to keep getting better.

Also, they have an extra week to prepare. The open week allows A&M a chance to get receiver Speedy Noil, linebacker Otaro Alaka and anyone else with nagging injuries back on their feet.
 
The open week enables coach Kevin Sumlin to study his own tendencies and adjust accordingly. If Sumlin is tempted to make changes in the lineup, the extra week provides more time to get the player or players ready.

Yet, A&M doesn’t need gimmicks to beat Alabama. This is a much better A&M team than that which was demolished, 59-0, in Tuscaloosa last year. Heck, it may be better than that A&M team which fell to Alabama, 49-42, at Kyle Field in 2013.

"We've got different players, and the players that played at the end of the year (last season) are a year older,” Sumlin said. “So from a maturity standpoint, the guys who were here are a year older, a year stronger, a year better. And we have guys who aren't here anymore. So, the chemistry of our team is totally different.

"We had a different quarterback. We have three new coaches. We have new kids like Christian Kirk. We have guys who are a year older like (defensive backs) Armani Watts and Donovan Wilson."

Conversely, Alabama isn’t as strong it was a year ago.

No doubt, the Crimson Tide is very talented as all Saban teams are. They still have more than their share of NFL prospects like linebacker Reggie Ragland, defensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed and Jonathan Allen, tight end O.J. Howard and running back Derrick Henry.

However, the Tide doesn’t have the game-breakers that it had last year with receiver Amari Cooper, running back T.J. Yeldon and safety Landon Collins. Coker hasn’t been as effective as last year’s starter Blake Sims.

Alabama did post an impressive 38-10 victory over then No. 8 Georgia. In retrospect, however, we must wonder just how good Georgia was. Yes, the Bulldogs were 4-0, but those wins were over Louisiana-Monroe, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern.

That doesn’t suggest that Alabama is not a legitimate national championship contender.

Remember, Alabama lost to Ole Miss last season and still won the SEC.

But A&M is good enough to win if the Aggies play well, avoid turnovers and limit Alabama’s big plays.

That won’t be easy.

Crucial tests never are.