Football Other |   |
| | Topic: Whats Wrong with This Logic Texans Fans? |     |
| Orlando Ayala Cant Read
   |  posted 12:40a, 03/23/06   
ok, i'm not a Texans fan, but lemme play GM for a sec. i like Reggie Bush, but i just think your team is in need of way more then a Reggie Bush. besides, what if he blows out a knee? or worse yet, is a complete bust? (I'm not saying it'll happen, i'm just giving you a hypothetical). using the draft value chart in another thread, my question to you is this: wouldn't it be more logical, and better for the future to trade that top pick? better yet, how bout trading it down in increments to stockpile more and more picks? for instance, from (1)--->(7) and then from (7)----->(12) and keep moving slowly down to the draft to the end of the 1st round. This draft has a shi*load of depth this year and there is some real value in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds imho.
Using the draft value chart, i came up with this as just a hypothetical (dont put any stock into each particular team trading for the pick, this is just a ballpark hypothetical and people are always looking to move up):
trade from (1)----(7) nets a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 2007 1st
trade from (7)----(12) nets a 3rd, 5th
trade from (12)----(20) nets a 2nd, 6th
trade from (20)----(30) nets a 3rd and 2007 4th
that would give you 1,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,7
+ 2007 1,1,2, 3, 4,4,5,6,7
then using the GBN mock draft, they draft as follows for 2006:
1: Santonio Holmes (I think he'll drop)
2: Bobby Carpenter LB
2: Eric Winston T
2: Max Giles G
3: Joel Klopstein TED
3: Dee Webb CB
3: Mark Anderson DE
3: Ryan Cook Center/Tackle
4: Best Avail. S
4: Best Avail DT
5: Best Avail. WR
5: Best Avail. C
6: Best Avail. LB
6: Best Avail. CB
7: Best Avail O-lineman
I just think that by adding so many players (after doing your homework on each of them), you really increase your chances on hitting with someone with talent, and on someone who will turn into a player. and i gotta think that of those 5 o-linemen you've drafted, you'll hit on at least 2 of them as being solid to good players. (then again, with charley casserly calling the shots i'm not so sure).
Then in 2007 with an extra 1st and 4th you can really fill some holes with some immediate contributors and playmakers.
Texans fans, tell me why this is wrong. I'll go to bed and see what ya'll have to say in the morning.
[This message has been edited by Orlando Ayala Cant Read (edited 3/23/2006 12:42a).]
| Whoop04
 |  posted 2:23a, 03/23/06
any team who finished with the worst record and therefore has the 1st pick, has many holes. If the Texans trade down, they would likely be a game or two better next year than if they take Bush. But in the long run, 3-5 years from now, they are going to be happy that they have a dynamic talent in the backfield that they can build around.
The Bengals drafted Palmer in '03, and they will be one of the best teams in the NFL next year. They certainly are glad that they went ahead and took a great QB prospect to build around instead of trading down.
Now of course, as long as Casserly is evaluating talent, the Texans wont be where the Bengals are now in 3 years. I say take Bush. Win about 5 games next year. Fire Casserly. Pick up one of the many very good WRs high in next years draft, and keep building. Oh yeah, and I dont trust Casserly to do a good job with any additional picks he might acquire in a trade.
" I hope you're choking. I hope you choke on this."
| BMX Bandit
| posted 6:43a, 03/23/06
first problem is that you assume someone is willing to make those trades with the Texans.
| bikerack
|  posted 7:46a, 03/23/06
first problem is that you assume someone is willing to make those trades with the Texans.
Exactly. You might see a team trade down a couple of times, but eventually, they get to a spot where either the phone doesn't ring or the trade offer they get isn't worth the guy they have highest on their board.
IMHO, the furthest they trade down is to #6. That would still net them an extra 1st rounder somewhere down the road as well as extra picks this year.
| bikerack
| posted 7:47a, 03/23/06
quote:
7: Best Avail O-lineman
Just nitpicking here...but they don't have a 7th rounder this year b/c of the Kevin Walter signing....and you don't have them getting one in their trading.
| Orlando Ayala Cant Read
| posted 8:03a, 03/23/06
quote:
first problem is that you assume someone is willing to make those trades with the Texans.
assuming someone is willing to make such deals with you. like i said, every year, there are teams willing to move up because there is a player that they have targeted that they want. its possible that teams wont be interested, but i guess i shoulda made my scenario based on "assuming teams are willing to make the moves".
if someone is willing to make those moves with you, I think you do it.
| BMX Bandit
| posted 8:06a, 03/23/06
I don't think there will be much offered for the #1 overall pick.
| Orlando Ayala Cant Read
| posted 8:09a, 03/23/06
^
really?
with the supposed 'michael jordan' of football at stake you dont think people would wanna move up to get him?
| bikerack
| posted 8:25a, 03/23/06
I agree that moving down and gaining picks can be a very good and smart thing. However, in this draft, I think you can drop down "too far".
What I would like to see is this (again, assuming teams want to make the moves):
Trade the #1 pick to NYJ for #4 and #29.
Trade the #4 pick to DEN for #15 and #22.
There are rumors out there that the Jets wanted another 1st rounder for Abraham so they could move up and take Leinart.
There were also reports from ESPNews after the Abraham deal that said DEN would package #15 and #22 to move up and take a QB.
If the Jets take Leinart and the Saints take Mario Williams or D'Brickashaw, TEN would have their choice of QB. If they take VY, I think DEN would be very interested in moving up.
After the trades I proposed, the Texans would pick #15, #22, #29, #32, #65, #66.
Using the GBNreport mock as a template (and massaging it a little to fit known needs), the Texans could get:
#15 OT Winston Justice
#22 WR (Santonio Holmes or Chad Jackson)
#29 DE Kiwi (or BPA)
#32 MLB D'Qwell Jackson
#65 DB Depth
#66 DL/OL Depth
| Orlando Ayala Cant Read
|  posted 8:38a, 03/23/06
again, same deal as mine, if those teams are willing to move like that.
| bikerack
| posted 8:42a, 03/23/06
...which is what i said...assuming they are willing to deal.
In your deals, they get 2 5ths and 2 6ths this year. They would be lucky to hit on one of them.
I'd rather stick with the lower round picks than give them up just to get more picks.
| OPAG
| posted 9:13a, 03/23/06
I'd love to trade with the Jets and for the 4th and 29th and leave it at that. If the Jets want one of the top three QBs. That would work out extremely well. Why? Well:
Scenario A: The Jets just pick their QB of choice at the 1. That means that one of Bush, Williams and Ferguson will be on the board in the fourth spot. I would be happy with any of these at the four spot. Plus we get another first rounder to boot.
Scenario B: Lets say the Jets draft Leinart. NO follows with Williams and Tennesse freaks everyone out and goes for Ferguson. Leaving Bush free at the 4 (I see no way that Bush would fall this low) The Texans could then work a trade with SF for their 6th pick and 2nd round this year of their 1st next year. (SF would do it in a heart beat too!)
Assuming GB goes for one of the remaining QBs, the Texans pick Hawk. That would be an outstanding day of work.
Scenario C: The more likely scenario. The Texans draft Bush. NO takes Williams, the Titans and Jets and Packers take the three QBs. (The wild card here is how much did VY improve his stock at the pro day. If he increased it I would not be surprised to see the Titans shock the world and take VY here. They have done it before and it sure worked out for them. McNair is VY's mentor and would be the perfect fit for VY) If that happened the Jets take Leinert and I think GB would take Cutler. That would leave Ferguson and Hawk open at 6. We then execute the trade to SF. Bush for that pick, 2nd this year and the 1st next year. Again I think SF would do it.
It will be fun to watch
"only one thing is important!"
| Jimmie Dimmick
 | posted 9:16a, 03/23/06
they'd be getting the crap end of the stick if they moved down to #4 and only got the 29th pick along with it. on the draft value chart, they'd also be due the equivalent of a relatively high second round pick as well.
| bikerack
| posted 9:26a, 03/23/06
I agree. I didn't have a chance to go digging up what else they would get. I was just throwing out the possibility.
| deuceswild
|  posted 12:07p, 03/23/06
This is hilarious.
Orlando, have you ever heard of the rookie pool??? I'd like to see you try to sign 15 draft picks under the pool. The pool is set to accommodate 7 draft picks.
Not to mention the fact you only are allowed 53 men on your roster. To add 15 new rookies to a roster, you are going to have to cut A LOT of veterans. Now everyone will agree that the veteran talent on the Texans isn't exactly to the level you want it to be, but for that many rookies, you are going to have to cut more veterans than you want, some good veterans as well. Either that or cut some of the rookies you just wasted draft picks on.
Furthermore, a team of nearly 1/3 rookies would probably suck even worse than what they put on the field last year. They would just be taking steps backwards.
I think most sane Texans fans realize that trading down IS the best option (the rest are still screaming for VY). Just not to the extreme you are proposing. I think there best move would to be to trade down to pick up a 2nd this year and another 1st next year, but stay in the top 5 and take either Mario Williams or DBrickashaw Ferguson with that pick. After that, they could trade down again, but I would think they shouldn't try to acquire more than 9 or 10 picks in any draft.
The trick is finding that first trading partner.
[This message has been edited by deuceswild (edited 3/23/2006 12:10p).]
| bikerack
| posted 12:21p, 03/23/06
quote:
The pool is set to accommodate 7 draft picks.
Actually, that isn't true. The pool is adjusted to however many picks you have. Remember when NO drafted Ricky as their ONLY pick? They had to get crafty with the contract b/c they didn't have that much to spend...their pool was only for 1 person. Normally, teams will steal some of the pool money from the late rounders to give to the early rounders.
| bikerack
| posted 12:22p, 03/23/06
See this article for proof...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/pasquarelli_len/1376829.html
| Orlando Ayala Cant Read
| posted 12:32p, 03/23/06
quote:
Orlando, have you ever heard of the rookie pool??? I'd like to see you try to sign 15 draft picks under the pool. The pool is set to accommodate 7 draft picks.
hey dilweed,
the rookie pool is over $6-7M for the Texans this season. you can sign however many players you want within that $6-7M. A team's rookie pool is based on the number and position of draft picks, with teams holding higher picks being allocated more dollars per pick than teams holding lower picks.
if they make their first pick late in the 1st round thats only a $1.0M hit, 3 2nd rounders at $600K is a $1.8M hit, 4 3rd rounders at $450K is a $1.8M hit, 2 4th rounders at $400K is a $800K hit, and the rest add up to a lil over a $800K. (these numbers are based on last years draft contracts given with a %10 increase).
since they wont use that top pick to pay out the huge salary, the money can be used on multiple players lower in the draft instead.
if they wanna do it, they can.
as far as not wanting to keep that many rookies on the roster, most teams end up cutting a draft pick or two every year anyway. all seven draft picks rarely make the team in year one. they wont lose much by replacing some sorry veterens with rookies who have a lil potential.
and even if they do have a young team full of rookies that isn't very good (a'la dallas cowboys 1989), they can still build a nice foundation and worst comes to worst they'll have a high draft pick to help them draft a couple of impact players next year as well.
[This message has been edited by Orlando Ayala Cant Read (edited 3/23/2006 12:37p).]
| Usoos
 | posted 12:43p, 03/23/06
Why do people think that GB would take a QB this year. Seems like that would be the last position they would be looking to spend a top 5 draft pick on.
| Jimmy Conway
| posted 12:49p, 03/23/06
I dont think we should move down at all. We need to stay right there and take Reggie Bush. This team is under a great deal of PR scrutiny right now as it is. A passing on VY and a trade down all together would piss a whole lot of people off.
Besides, Bush is that once in a lifetime player. We will look back on it years from now and wonder what we were thinking.
| OPAG
| posted 1:38p, 03/23/06
That's true about GB they did take Rogers last year. Funny though Thompson was really impressed with VY's workout or so it appears.
In any case, it is to the Texans advantage for VY to get hot again. If Tenn. takes him that really opens up the scenario with SF.
"only one thing is important!"
| Machew
 | posted 2:50p, 03/23/06
If they traded out of the #1 spot, no way should they allow themselves to fall outside of #5...They still need an impact guy next year.
| deuceswild
| posted 5:00p, 03/23/06
I agree. Should fall outside of the top 5. But they can still pick up a good amount of picks by dropping within the top 5, if some other team is desperate enough.
Look what NY gave up to move up for Eli, and SD to move up for Vick. I think the #1 pick is worth that again this year, as it is much stronger at the top than most years.
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