Okay, Analogy has once again emerged from his research basement in downtown Mineral Wells to provide you with the following:

1. There were 15 occurrences where Ags faced 4th down between the opponents 23 and 40 yd lines (FG between 40 and 57 yards).

2. Pegram kicked twice- 40yd (WY) 44yd (BU) and made both.

3. The remaining times I will break down, with analysis following:

Opp...YdLn....Dwn/Dist...Play

Clem...39......4-11.....Punt to 2
Clem...36......4-15.....Punt/touchback
KSt....38......4-14.....Punt to 7...D gets TO on 12ydln; Ags score TD
IaSt...36......4-8.......Incomplete Pass
OkSt...37......4-1.......1st Dwn followed by:
..........26......4-1.......No gain
Col....32......4-1.......Inc Pass
Bay....40......4-8.......Punt blocked
OU.....35......4-12......Punt to 10
Tech...40......4-12......Punt to 3
t.u......35......4-7.......Inc Pass
t.u......38......4-5.......Sacked
UT.......36......4-6.......Pass- 1st Dwn

Without analyzing wind conditions, let's break it down into erstwhile 40-50yd FGs and 51-57yd.

40-50yds ONLY FOUR TIMES ALL YEAR did we face this- twice we kicked and made it. The other two were both 4th & 1 on Col's 32 and OkSt 26, which we failed to convert. But these were situations most teams would go for the first down anyway. So the "Pegram Factor" of leg strength was no adverse factor the entire year from this distance. In fact his leg was "just fine, thank you!"

51-57yds eleven times we faced this situation where typically only the best of the best have a better than 30% chance of making a FG.

When we went for it, we were 2 for 5 converting- a pretty good result. We punted 6 times, when FGs would have been from 56,53,55,57,52,57. 4 of those 6 punts went to the 10, 7, 2, 3 yd lines- and EXCELLENT result! One of those led directly to an Ag score when D forced a deep turnover.

Bottom Line- Ags did quite well with the Pegram Factor. "NNNNNEXT Topic!!"



[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/24/2005 11:22p).]

Not so fast my friend. Knock youR analysis down to the 20 yard line (37 yd FG) and do it again. I've no real clue, but the perception is that over the last few years we've foregone many long FG tries.

Just curious, and you seem to have the time!

good analysis, but it doesn't mean special teams can't be greatly improved

Thank you analogy, I wanted to do the same study but figured it would take forever. Good job!

Cecil- sorry but you are completely missing this. As you state, the perception is that we forego LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG FGs. Get IT? That's why my analysis involves LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG FGs.

Pegram is perfect from inside 40 and no one doubts his abilities- why would I analyze THAT????

You DO understand that when we say inside 40yds we are talking inside the 23 yard line, right?

The backtracking has already started on this thread. Wonderful.

Any chance you could get the wind from those games, analogy?

GREAT analysis.

AnalogyAg - TexAgs posters only rarely let empirical evidence interfere with their preconceived notions. This is not unique. Humans in general do a very, very poor job of interpreting data and assessing risks.


BTW, models have shown that over the long term it's more beneficial to go for it on 4th down, particularly in short yardage situations, rather than attempt FGs longer than 35-40 yards or so.

not to be picky, but do you have the quarter and game score in which these occurred?

(sorry)

Reeses- of course it doesnt. To use an analogy, it's like me showing that Firestone tires were actually safe (as if), and you saying "well fine, but that doesnt mean we can't improve on driver safety..." Uh, yeah, you're right.

AB2- Absolutely- it's called "LINKS", just about 8" above where you're reading this!

[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/24/2005 11:32p).]

I'd love to put this into my 2005 Ag Football Preview for next week....do you mind?

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Check out "Texas A&M & Baseball In No Particular Order"
at tamu-and-baseball.com

Have at it, Ryan! Do I get a free copy?

you sure do.... I'll email you a link

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Check out "Texas A&M & Baseball In No Particular Order"
at tamu-and-baseball.com

By the way Ryan- I thought my analysis on Reggie a couple nights ago was pretty telling- especially the ratio improvement each year. Did you catch that one?

http://texags.com/main/forum.reply.asp?forum_id=5&topic_id=473914

just searched for it and read it....that's really interesting....I knew that the leap from '03 to '04 would be big but I didn't realize how much he improved from '02 to '03....I might throw that into the preview too, if it's ok....obviously I'll give you credit for it....do you want me to use your handle name or a real one?

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Check out "Texas A&M & Baseball In No Particular Order"
at tamu-and-baseball.com

[This message has been edited by AgRyan04 (edited 8/24/2005 11:47p).]

quote:

---

Cecil- sorry but you are completely missing this. As you state, the perception is that we forego LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG FGs. Get IT? That's why my analysis involves LOOOOOOOOOOOOONG FGs.

---

Nope, not missing a thing. (Please note I'm not disagreeing w/ your conclusion. ) The point in question is not LOOOOOOONG field goals, but rather foregoing attempts the teams w/ a "good kicker" WOULD ATTEMPT.

In other words, the point in question is what attempts do we forego. We've may have attempted a FG from the 23 yd line in every single time - I don't know. That's why I was asking you. He could still be perfect from 40. However, we may've had some potential tries from less than 40 that we didn't attempt, e.g. into the wind.

Check it out and let me know!

quote:

---

In other words, the point in question is what attempts do we forego. We've may have attempted a FG from the 23 yd line in every single time - I don't know. That's why I was asking you. He could still be perfect from 40. However, we may've had some potential tries from less than 40 that we didn't attempt, e.g. into the wind.

---

Why would there be instances where we didn't kick a FG when we were clearly within range, and the reason they weren't attempted was "they're out of range?"

The point of this sad, tired, and one-sided debate is that Pegram's lack of deep-power has adversely impacted the playcalling done by Coach Fran. The stats speak for themselves.

Well Cecil, you yourself said "long" FGs, and that IS what the perception is.

I've never heard that there is a perception that he can't kick FGs inside the 23 yard line, and I don't want to head down to my dank downtown Mineral Wells basement to waste my obviously valuable time!lol

04- no credit necessary- seriously.

[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/25/2005 12:01a).]

I'm not disagreeing! However this:

quote:

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Why would there be instances where we didn't kick a FG when we were clearly within range, and the reason they weren't attempted was "they're out of range?"

---

makes no sense. The point is that some people think that there are times when we are "clearly w/in range" but forego the attempt because of Pegram's leg. I'm wondering if FG's of 35-40 are attempted every single time - or if there've beens some occasions upon which we have foregone the FG attempt, most likely because of wind.

Just a question. If the answer is "no" it further strengthens the case that we don't forego many (if any ) attempts because of his leg strength.

You're right cecil...it makes no sense because that argument makes no sense.

The "TexAgs perception" is that Pegram's lack of leg has turned 45-55(gasp!) yd FGs into 4th down conversions because his leg cannot reach from there.

There has been 0 debate, until these comments from you, about his leg from under 40 yards.

Why would you cross-check those when there's not even a perception that we've foregone FGs in those situations where Pegram is CLEARLY within his range.

Okay, Cecil- I'm back up from my dark Mineral Wells basement, and you now owe me 15 minutes of my life back.

Only once in '04 did the Ags NOT attempt a FG on 4th down when they were between the 5yd line and 23 yd line. That was in the Cotton Bowl, when the Ags went for it on 4th & 1 from the 6.

So much for perceptions.

calm down boys, lol. I believe that both of you have points and both of your points prevents you from seeing the other persons point. Got it?

hmm I thought Todd was a good field goal kicker.....

guess he could be perfect to the 47 yd line. yeah, that's the ticket.

nm



[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/25/2005 1:38a).]

Props to Todd for an outstanding job last year and an amazing field goal percentage.
I rue the day when A&M has a kicker who makes "only" 80% or so of his attempts. The weeping and moaning will be unbearable.

quote:

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Okay, Cecil- I'm back up from my dark Mineral Wells basement, and you now owe me 15 minutes of my life back.

---

So that equates to approximately 1.37 beers, right? I'll be nice and round it up to two. You name the time and place.

BTW, it ought to be clear that I agreed w/ you from the beginning, and you are indeed correct.

I believe that people have taken their frustration at short KO's and our fairly poor coverage and translated that to FG's. Unfair to Todd.

[This message has been edited by cecil77 (edited 8/25/2005 8:58a).]

I like Todd, but I'd rather have a Tony Franklin / Martin Gramatica type kicker. Even Mason Crosby. A better FG kicker could have made a difference in the Baylor, OU and tu losses. I didnot say would, I said could.

quote:

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Pegram is perfect from inside 40 and no one doubts his abilities- why would I analyze THAT????

---

He missed 5 PATs last year, that's from inside 40 right??

[This message has been edited by Aston04 (edited 8/25/2005 9:15a).]

yeah - but why did he miss those extra points vs. Tech?

Thank you very much, AnalogyAg.

I guess it just seemed like we were foregoing a lot of longer field goal attempts.

Minor correction - he was not perfect inside 40 yards. His miss was a 32-yard attempt.

Now it seems that all that remains to dissect is the PAT issue. Yes, at least a couple of attempts were blocked. Can anyone confirm the number of PAT attempts blocked? I would expect one PAT miss on a season, maybe two. Three sure seems like too many.

One may say "You are talking about a one-point difference for a whole season!" Not really - the field goal that Pegram hit in the Colorado game to put it into overtime was a 20-yarder, which is effectively an extra-point attempt. That's one that you would expect a kicker to make.

[This message has been edited by Scrap Iron Ag (edited 8/25/2005 11:39a).]

The guy has been dissected to death. He hit on 92% of his field goal attempts. He was 2-2 from the 40 and beyond. He will probably go into the record books as the most accurate Aggie kicker in HISTORY. Case closed.

Pegram is an accurate kicker with a relatively weak leg. Based on your analysis, his lack of range did not cost us any points. That's great, but he still has limited range.

Do you think Fran crosses his fingers when Pegram kicks?

Accurate kicker--weak leg; tastes great---less filling.

Cecil- I never thought you were disagreeing with me. I just couldnt understand your wanting to see the "short" stuff. I'll think about those beers!

72- you're right about the not costing us points- and that may have just been serendipity the way it worked out. I'm not certain he couldn't kick 48 -50 yarders though. I was surprised by my own findings. Even the stuff Cecil wanted to see surprised me. It just seems like there would have been more times that we faced 4th down deep in their territory where we decided to go for it instead of kicking FGs. The reality was though, our red zone offense was very good and we only faced about 1 of those per game on average.



[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/25/2005 6:48p).]

______________________________________________________
no longer actually tacking on an extra year. i had to get a real job.

"hey thats journey! kick ass!"