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I think this is the real story behind 2010, LHN, ESPN and where its going....

10,503 Views | 73 Replies | Last: 12 yr ago by Cannonball Craig III
AnalogyAg
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1. Last summer, t.u. wanted Pac-10 and knew it could do its own network, but did not envision the sugar-daddy treatment from ESPN.

2. When A&M balked, t.u. saw way too much risk having A&M spreading its wings in the best conference and being more geographically centered, while its biggest coup would be gaining like-minded academia in other institutions.

3. ESPN was also freaking out because Fox was about to slam dunk it with a contract on a super-power conference, while at same time having to re-negotiate the SEC contract when A&M and maybe others joined it.

4. Losing a shot at OU and Texas, and having to shell out a $100 Million MORE, EACH YEAR for the next few years was unfathomable.

5. Instead of $100MM per year, ESPN figured out why not pay $300MM over TWENTY years, which is a drop in the bucket (saving about 85 Million/yr) and ALSO keeping some rights in the Big 12 schools AND locking up t.u. if they ever go independent.

6. The Ags bought the new Bevo 10 because of a guarantee that approached SEC money and it all happened so fast there was just too much uncertainty in moving to another conference. Admin also underestimated Students and Former Students desire to be in SEC.

7. Ags were not privy to the ESPN deal, though t.u. had an informal agreement with ESPN that it was coming (this is the murky smoking gun that t.u. and ESPN have kept under wraps). t.u. approached A&M about a Lonestar network as a smokescreen, but made the terms so unworkable and gave other indications to Byrne that he knew an arrangement would be bound to failure. (see Byrne's comments about the deal and how we were interested but their terms and conditions werent acceptable[my paraphrase])

8. Six months later the LHN is announced. The money was troublesome enough, but what could A&M do? There was also an understanding in the conference re the limited scope of the coverage. ESPN and t.u. got a little too ambitious and ESPN lost sight of the fact that this was a deal to stop realignment, NOT to make a profit. They started focusing on ways to recoup their investment faster.

9. Because they overplayed their hand, all hell broke loose and now they are both in a crapload of hotwater because re-alignment is occurring BECAUSE of their deal (which was supposed to STOP it) AND the value of their deal has plummeted because of the concessions made. The quick NCAA ruling was at behest of t.u. and ESPN to try to emasculate A&M at the planned legis committee hearings the following week where they hoped to exert enough external pressure for A&M to stay in Big 12 cause no palatable reason to leave. (again, underestimating how much A&M had thought through this and could posture it as good for A&M and good for the state of Texas).

10. Now, I look for back-room deals to be going on where ESPN and t.u. are going to make some incredible proposals to A&M, including a morphing of the LHN into a Big 12 or A&M/OU/t.u. channel combined with huge guarantees. Otherwise, t.u.'s back is against the wall. The LHN has basically ground to a halt, and this is the reason.

I hope our Admin stays the course and remembers its words that this is a "100 year decision" and the best chance for A&M to finally realize its ultimate destiny of a great stand-alone institution for all of Texas.




[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/16/2011 11:18p).]
DeWrecking Crew
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You forgot your analogy
PFlat
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AG
plausible. (there's that word again!)
Tex_Aggie
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McNasty
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AG
quote:
5. Instead of $100MM per year loss, why not pay $300MM over TWENTY years, which is a drop in the bucket (saving about 85 Million/yr) and ALSO keeping some rights in the Big 12 schools AND locking up t.u. if they ever go independent.

This has always been my biggest beef. Both espn and the horns have a clear conflict of interest in establishing a large contract outside the scope of the Big XII. Would you ever knowingly enter into business with this kind of situation?
AnalogyAg
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awright WC, two 800lb gorillas probably are going to end up being unwanted guests, especially when they tell the owners when and where they should s h i t.
AnalogyAg
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McNasty- that in my opinion is where ESPN failed. It could have paid that money into a Big 12 network and helped solidify the status quo. They might have had to sweeten something for t.u., but nothing close to what they did.

t.u. did not want to go PAC without A&M; they would have "saved" the Big12 for far less.
aggiehawg
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AG
Excellent. Might I add one point?

In the meantime, ESPN was able to secure a deal along with Fox in the PAC. And that deal ensures that Texas cannot go to the PAC, with the LHN intact, without ESPN's permission.
Bob in Houston
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It's a good story. But real? Ehh, probably not.
meatpossum
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AG
This sounds about right to me.
ArlingtonAg08
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I'd say it's spot on
aggiehawg
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AG
Sorry, Bob, but there is probably more accuracy than inaccuracy in Analogy's take. The networks were scrambling last year. Fox had the PAC contract at that time. CBS had the main SEC contract (still does). Everybody, not ESPN, was saying the money guys at the networks were driving things.

Powers and Dodds turned on a dime, overnight. From done deal with the PAC, to staying in the Big Xii. Sure, Scott says NOW, it was all Texas politics, he has a relationship he has to maintain with ESPN, NOW. That was not what he was saying at the time, last year.

At the time he was saying he was drinking the good stuff and smoking a stogie celebrating the deal. He got the phone call from Powers the next morning. And further, he stated he was not given any concrete reason for Texas pulling out of the deal.
gunslingercc
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AG
sounds pretty solid
Jock92
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Wholeheartedly concur! Well done, OP!
Cannonball Craig III
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There is little question that the sips pulled out of the PAC deal because they feared A&M in the SEC more than any alledged advantages of the PAC. And Scott is fully aware of it, too.

Now the sips are not all that welcome out there. If they do go that way, it certainly isn't going to be on their terms.

The B1G? Tom Osborne may discuss things with Delaney, making that direction somewhat problematic.

The sips may wind up being independent much longer than they had planned.



[This message has been edited by Cannonball Craig III (edited 8/16/2011 9:01p).]
Kentucky Mustangs
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quote:

aggiehawg

In the meantime, ESPN was able to secure a deal along with Fox in the PAC. And that deal ensures that Texas cannot go to the PAC, with the LHN intact, without ESPN's permission.




I think this is more than just a point dear.

The problem with modern business is the greed has gotten so bad, that folks think nothing of serving 2 masters. As a political friend of my observed not to long ago, "the problem is they don't stay bought"
Doctor Wu
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Interesting.
BQ#1
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AG
Good post OP. Probably large percentage on target.
Klinton
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Right On!
aggiehawg
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Well, Kentucky, whether it's Chicago, or Texas, or Bristol, protection money is never a one-shot deal. (Unless we're talking Al Capone.)

ESPN and Dodds just may have proved the old adage true---be careful what you wish for...
SwampFox
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You're spot-on here. The devil in all of this is ESPN. The sips play the role of the greedy Faust.
Gordo
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AG
You lost me at #2. Ridiculous.
amg405
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No way in hell I'm reading all of that. Great work.
19aggie99
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Great read if you want to add what happened last in the mix.

Well done.
swc93
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AG
Too many have forgotten how tu pretty much had the move to the Pac10 wrapped up last year, fooled Colorado, who I still think are in shock others didn't follow them.
Bob in Houston
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quote:
Powers and Dodds turned on a dime, overnight. From done deal with the PAC, to staying in the Big Xii. Sure, Scott says NOW, it was all Texas politics...

The Aggies turned in a hurry, too.

I've always thought that Rick Perry told both of them to work out the B12. And that is what happened.

The week before, when this was starting up, Perry (naively, in my view) said he preferred that the SWC get back together.

And there was a quote in the last day or so to the effect that Perry doesn't think the Ags are leaving now. That makes me wonder.
VikingNik
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AG
Point #2 is a little hyperbolic but the others seem right to me.
Cannonball Craig III
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No, Bob. The Aggies turned the sips. Read aggiehawg's and my post again. And let it sink in. Perry had no more effect on things last summer than fish do a tide. Do you actually think he was going to tell the sips what to do? Hell, Dodds might not even answer Rick's phone calls.

[This message has been edited by Cannonball Craig III (edited 8/16/2011 10:36p).]

[This message has been edited by Cannonball Craig III (edited 8/16/2011 11:03p).]
cupcakesprinkles
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Great post OP!
AnalogyAg
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you're right, Viking- i toned it down.
W
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AG
there's no going back on the LHN and I doubt t.u. is going to share anything about it. ESPN built the new studio on the 40 acres and hired all the production crew and personnel with the horns approval. Too late to somehow integrate it with OU and A&M
AggieDO97
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AG
Thanks Analogy.

Certainly plausible, but not sure how a joint OU/A&M/tu network would work. But it is logical to think that someone at ESiPN would have considered that.
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Hal(59)
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Won't happen, Fox is the silent partner in all of the lhn.When this all clears up, lhn will be a dominant force within the tv packages.Fox and ESPN are the only two networks that can afford the new dollar packages and we aren't their buds!
AnalogyAg
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I don't think it would work either, but I wouldnt put it past ESPN and t.u. to offer A&M to package it as a Big 12 Network.

They know the B12 is on life support and this would only be a temporary thing until t.u. has more time to make its next step. Saving the B12 is more important to ESPN and t.u. now than the LHN, and the LHN will still be there when the next realignment occurs or t.u. goes Indy.

Would be no big deal to put the LHN on hold. BUT A&M sees through this crap and is smarter in 2011 than it was in 2010. We're gone.



[This message has been edited by AnalogyAg (edited 8/17/2011 6:38a).]
roboag
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1. There are only 3 teams in America w/ there own networks: ND, BYU, and t.u.
2. Only 2 of those teams are independent: ND, BYU.
3. t.u. put together the "new" B12 so they can have their network, b/c they don't want to go indy.
4. Only us (Aggies) & ou have the ability to break free on our own (and we're the only AAU university of the 2, which makes us extremely attractive).
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