Nick lodolo, 42nd overall pick, heading to Tcu

6,022 Views | 45 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Pumpkinhead
ftworthag02
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6'6" left handed pitcher from California. Why would a kid turn down that money? Schloss is killing it!



http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pirates-Blog/2016/07/12/Nick-Lodolo-Pirates-competitive-balance-draft-pick-appears-to-be-headed-to-college/stories/201607120169
Expert Analysis
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back to back studs going to TCU instead of the pros...
ftworthag02
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Not to mention having all 3 starters & closer return
dv0478
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aint no girls like that in the minor leagues
Bob Dobalina
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How do they do it? They must be working the academic packages really well.
Yell Practice
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Wow! Schloss is killing them.
mdanyc03
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Obviously great news for TCU but part of the story here is that the Pirates were trying to sign him for below slot value and were content to let him go if he demanded slot value.
Lance Uppercut
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quote:
The Pittsburgh Pirates selected pitcher Nick Lodolo with the 41st overall pick in the draft this year. He was considered a tough sign, but the team has been negotiating with him. Lodolo set a high bonus demand before the draft and said that he was planning on attending TCU, but he never took his name out of the draft, which left a door open for him possibly signing.

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I wouldn't say it's 100% official he won't sign since the deadline is Friday, but it certainly appears that way.

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The slot value for Lodolo's selection is $1,576,000, but the Pirates saved some money by signing players to under-slot deals in the top 10 rounds.

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While Lodolo still has time to sign with the Pirates it seems at this point he's set on coming to TCU, and that would be a massive coup for the Frogs.

Lodolo wouldn't be the first player to pass up an opportunity to play professionally to come to TCU. The Texas Rangers drafted Matthew Purke in the first round of the MLB draft, only to see him make his way to Fort Worth instead of Arlington. And, of course, TCU phenom Luken Baker wrote a letter to MLB teams asking them not to draft him because he was set on going to TCU (he was still drafted).

Sounds like the Pirates happened to pick a guy that thinks he's worth every penny of that slot value or over the value that's usually assigned to his spot. But it's odd they mention Purke....he was picked 14th in the draft and went to TCU and basically became a cautionary tale. He thought he was getting 6 million was offered 4, got hurt in college and lost velocity on his fastball, and ended up signing for 2.75. He still got a decent payday from the Nationals, but has struggled with injuries since and lost a couple years of earning potential for a guy that was almost a guaranteed eventual MLB player.

Baker hurt his arm pitching this year as well before focusing on hitting. I guess with some guys it really isn't all about the money, but there's a reason these kinds of moves aren't (as the Frogs site puts it) "typical" and why they would have scored a "massive coup".
merc
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Be it luck or working finical packages sounds like a good deal. Loading up for possible 4th trip.
W
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TCU was already going to be preseason top 3. This may make them #1
wreckncrew
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Schloss has his recruiting pitch down to bring these kids in. Incredible.
ftworthag02
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Schloss & saarloos recruit all over the country. I read a article the other day that said that schloss will email or text saarloos thoughts or ideas at 4am
TAMU1990
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Isn't this an example of what Hop was talking about - TCU (and other Omaha regulars) getting highly drafted players to forego signing and going to school?
Lance Uppercut
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It was inferred that "elite" talent was in the first 2 rounds, and that there were programs that made a habit of it.

If this is somehow a Childress shortcoming, he shares it with basically the entirety of the college baseball coaching profession. There are 2 players left unsigned from the first 2 rounds of the draft this season.....the next highest player that didn't sign went in the 7th round.

One is the player this thread is about, the other is committed to Vanderbilt and has until tomorrow to sign. To read about some of the advantages some private schools have, you can read this article.

In 2015, there were 3 players (Funkhouser to Louisville, Singer to Florida, Hughes to Georgia Tech) that didn't sign from the first 2 rounds. There was one player in round 2 that didn't sign and stayed in school (Miami), but zero that enrolled in a D1 program in 2014. There were 2 in 2013 (Oregon, Fullerton). There was one in 2012, and he ended up quitting baseball after playing at Mizzou.

So in the past 5 years, we have 8 players that didn't sign from the first 2 rounds, and zero schools who had more than one player skip their signing bonus. TCU would be the outlier with Baker going later in the draft after telling schools not to sign him, and now Lodolo. This is less of a common strategy and more of an anomaly.

Edit--Vanderbilt signee Braxton Garrett signed a couple of hours ago, so we're down to one player from the first 6 rounds plus who didn't sign from this year's draft.
Sandman98
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quote:
Isn't this an example of what Hop was talking about - TCU (and other Omaha regulars) getting highly drafted players to forego signing and going to school?


There is no credible data set to support your neighbor's narrative. As Lance said, they are anomalies and not some magic act by Schlossnagle.
RGLAG85
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Some of you guys (cough...cough hop) are trying to hard to pile dirt on Childress.

Once again, well said Lance!
Bunk Moreland
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quote:
Some of you guys (cough...cough hop) are trying to hard to pile dirt on Childress.

Once again, well said Lance!

Yeah I don't know why there's all this justification needed.

it's pretty simple. He's gone to 1 CWS in 11 years and has 0 wins there. Only 1 national seed in those 11 years.

You can justify and explain away, or pile on and lob from all angles, but that's the baseline fact. The head coach who said Omaha is the goal every year and thinks this program should be a staple there, has only been once in 11 years and has 0 wins there.

Is it a fireable offense? No, not in my opinion...especially with how good the team has been the last 2 years. However, if the team struggles for a 2-3 year stretch with maybe one or 2 hosts, no conference titles, and still no omaha, then we're looking at 13-14 years and the decision might become clearer.
Bob Dobalina
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Has any school recently had the success with this that TCU has had over the last 8 years or so?
Hop
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quote:
Some of you guys (cough...cough hop) are trying to hard to pile dirt on Childress.

Once again, well said Lance!
I'm not piling on Childress and I've said that numerous times. You simply need to read my posts where I've praised Childress for many aspects of his program. I'm piling on posters who choose to respond in arrogant quips with winky face emojis.
Hop
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quote:
It was inferred that "elite" talent was in the first 2 rounds, and that there were programs that made a habit of it.

If this is somehow a Childress shortcoming, he shares it with basically the entirety of the college baseball coaching profession. There are 2 players left unsigned from the first 2 rounds of the draft this season.....the next highest player that didn't sign went in the 7th round.

One is the player this thread is about, the other is committed to Vanderbilt and has until tomorrow to sign. To read about some of the advantages some private schools have, you can read this article.

In 2015, there were 3 players (Funkhouser to Louisville, Singer to Florida, Hughes to Georgia Tech) that didn't sign from the first 2 rounds. There was one player in round 2 that didn't sign and stayed in school (Miami), but zero that enrolled in a D1 program in 2014. There were 2 in 2013 (Oregon, Fullerton). There was one in 2012, and he ended up quitting baseball after playing at Mizzou.

So in the past 5 years, we have 8 players that didn't sign from the first 2 rounds, and zero schools who had more than one player skip their signing bonus. TCU would be the outlier with Baker going later in the draft after telling schools not to sign him, and now Lodolo. This is less of a common strategy and more of an anomaly.

Edit--Vanderbilt signee Braxton Garrett signed a couple of hours ago, so we're down to one player from the first 6 rounds plus who didn't sign from this year's draft.

Using the example that 90+% of early round draftees sign with an MLB versus going to college is completely irrelevant to the discussion when you understand that MLB teams not named the Astros won't utilize a 1st or 2nd round pick on a prospect that has indicated they want to go to college.

It's not an anomaly when TCU has at least three players on the current team (and it may be more) who at one point during their high school careers were projected as 1st and 2nd round draft choices...the incoming kid mentioned here, Luken Baker, and Ryan Johnson. But, some kids inform MLB teams to essentially take their names off all draft boards. So teams like TCU, Vandy, Florida, Stanford, LSU, Virginia, etc. (considered elite) indeed have early round talent on their rosters even if the players were technically not drafted due to signability issues.

And in the same recruiting class, A&M lost quite a few signees in the 1st round like the Russell kid and Beau Burrows. The point here isn't that two 2015 early round signees went pro. It's that A&M has rarely gotten these early round talent guys to campus over the past decade. Turner Larkins is one of the very, very few who was a draft risk but went to A&M.

And as I've said, what hurts is that Baker and Johnson (along w the Feltman kid who became the closer as a freshman and got the save in game 3 of the Super Regional) all played for the baseball academy located in College Station operated by a bunch of former Texas A&M baseball players and one TexAgs recruiting analyst. See link...

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/two-way-prospect-baker-tells-teams-intends-uphold-college-commitment/#u1Av0oihYKK3S2qF.97

I think we can all agree that if this A&M team had Luken Baker and Feltman, it's a NC caliber team.

But looking at future signees and commits, it does appear CHildress is starting to change that result which is critical. He already has two commits from the local Twelves Academy for the 2018 class and Childress signed another good one from the Twelves in 2016 (Cameron Blake). Maybe he has indeed recognized that he needed to change his perception, and has adjusted. So this could be all a moot point anyway.
Lance Uppercut
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It's not irrelevant, because those decisions are still incredibly rare. And there aren't a ton of guys that skip those first 2 rounds either when it's that sure of a thing. Of all those kids I listed, I think one of them improved their draft stock. Purke lost money on his deal as well. Childress didn't get Burrows or Ashe on campus because they were multi-millionaires at age 18 and were the #21 and #22 picks in the nation. Removing yourself from that situation is not common either.

And again, we had a NC caliber team this year, no doubt about it. If you're still stuck on that not being true, I can't believe you watched the college baseball season. Baker couldn't have scored 4 runs by himself on Sunday, and we weren't struggling at the closer position.

And here's Baseball America's blurb about Ryan Johnson (who hit .214 this year)

quote:
Another TCU signee, outfielder Ryan Johnson of College Station (Texas), also has informed scouts of his desire to go to school in his own letter, sent by his father. Johnson began the year No. 41 on BA's High School Top 100 but has had a poor spring and was not in BA's Top 200. He struggled during the National High School Invitational in March.

And of course it circles back around to recruiting from the local select team, as if Childress wasn't bringing in tons of Houston talent that also played on select teams. There's no guarantee that having someone that played local select ball means he's a superior player to someone from another town.

-There aren't tons of teams getting guys to skip millions of dollars in the first 2 rounds
-Childress brings in tons of local talent that considered top Texas teams from the Houston area
-The team this year was good enough to win the CWS. The pieces were there, and repeating that a good team would be better with 2 more good players isn't much of an argument because that would always be true. If you can name more than one team that had a clear talent advantage over us this season, I'd be willing to take the argument that recruiting and talent were a problem more seriously
Tex100
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I think we can all agree that if this A&M team had Luken Baker and Feltman, it's a NC caliber team.

I don't recall how Baker played in the CWS, but while he hurt us bad in game 1, I think we shut him down in games 2 and 3.

Not saying I wouldn't want him on our roster.
Tex100
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It's not irrelevant, because those decisions are still incredibly rare. And there aren't a ton of guys that skip those first 2 rounds either when it's that sure of a thing. Of all those kids I listed, I think one of them improved their draft stock. Purke lost money on his deal as well. Childress didn't sign Burrows or Ashe because they were multi-millionaires at age 18 and were the #21 and #22 picks in the nation. Removing yourself from that situation is not common either.

This. Think how well you have to do in college to improve. Odds are against it.

The Astros pick a couple of years ago who was upset he was offered 4 or 5 million, well under slot, had little chance of bettering that. As it turned out, he went to IMG (I think) and blew out his elbow, which was exactly the Astros concerns.
Tex100
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Hop is right about the 12, though. Their website says they have had 90 kids sign with college teams the last 3 years, and many are to high DI schools. We have received a low percentage of their kids.
RGLAG85
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quote:
Hop is right about the 12, though. Their website says they have had 90 kids sign with college teams the last 3 years, and many are to high DI schools. We have received a low percentage of their kids.


Dbat, Dallas Patriots, Dallas Mustangs and Dallas Tigers have three times as many and tcu gets very few of those. What's your point?

And by the way, how is Ryan Johnson doing?
TAMU1990
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Dallas is quite a bit bigger than College Station and the Dallas programs have tons of players that come from all over with many university ties. Everybody knows everybody in College Station and many of the kids in the program are from Aggie families or are Aggie fans. Of course, there is a new strain of TCU fandom in support of the kids there.
ftworthag02
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Unsigned at draft deadline
http://www.d1baseball.com/featured/draft-deadline-hits-unsigned/
W
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Poche returning for LSU.

either TCU will be preseason #1 and LSU #2 or vice versa. Both teams are going to be loaded.

for all the teams in the state of Texas (not in the Big 12)...objective #1 for 2017 will be to avoid being the #2 or #3 seed in Fort Worth. That will be a dead end

Serious Lee
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the committee said they will avoid pairing 2 teams in the same bracket 3 years in a row. dont know if that solely pertains to #1 seeds or not, but id like to think they would give us a more interesting matchup if even if we're a 2 seed.
Hop
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quote:
It's not irrelevant, because those decisions are still incredibly rare. And there aren't a ton of guys that skip those first 2 rounds either when it's that sure of a thing. Of all those kids I listed, I think one of them improved their draft stock. Purke lost money on his deal as well. Childress didn't get Burrows or Ashe on campus because they were multi-millionaires at age 18 and were the #21 and #22 picks in the nation. Removing yourself from that situation is not common either.

And again, we had a NC caliber team this year, no doubt about it. If you're still stuck on that not being true, I can't believe you watched the college baseball season. Baker couldn't have scored 4 runs by himself on Sunday, and we weren't struggling at the closer position.

And here's Baseball America's blurb about Ryan Johnson (who hit .214 this year)

quote:
Another TCU signee, outfielder Ryan Johnson of College Station (Texas), also has informed scouts of his desire to go to school in his own letter, sent by his father. Johnson began the year No. 41 on BA's High School Top 100 but has had a poor spring and was not in BA's Top 200. He struggled during the National High School Invitational in March.

And of course it circles back around to recruiting from the local select team, as if Childress wasn't bringing in tons of Houston talent that also played on select teams. There's no guarantee that having someone that played local select ball means he's a superior player to someone from another town.

-There aren't tons of teams getting guys to skip millions of dollars in the first 2 rounds
-Childress brings in tons of local talent that considered top Texas teams from the Houston area
-The team this year was good enough to win the CWS. The pieces were there, and repeating that a good team would be better with 2 more good players isn't much of an argument because that would always be true. If you can name more than one team that had a clear talent advantage over us this season, I'd be willing to take the argument that recruiting and talent were a problem more seriously


Yes, it is somewhat rare, which is why the elite teams are the elite teams. The few players who do forego seven figure bonuses, do so because of the allure of playing for an elite team where they'll get plenty of national exposure at the CWS and the coach is a great salesman of that opportunity.

Oh, and if you want to disagree with my opinion, you are welcome to do so. But the condescending BS needs to stop. I've watched more games at Olsen Field (over a 1,000) than just about any human and in the past 28 years my attendance rate is somewhere between 95-99%.

FYI, Matt Purke was a stud high school pitcher that went to TCU and had a combined 21-1 record in his freshman and sophomore years and helped transform TCU baseball into a regional powerhouse that has now become an elite national program. Whether he made a bad financial decision or not is irrelevant to this discussion.

Obviously, you have no results to back-up your assumption that this year's A&M team was good enough to win the CWS, because for the 10th year out of 11 years, A&M didn't make it to the CWS. And regular season baseball is different from post-season baseball because elite pitching depth is what wins at the Super REgional and CWS level. A&M had only four good-to-elite pitchers in the post-season (Hill, Simonds, Vinson, Ecker) and A&M's 2-3 elite hitters were shut-down by TCU's elite arms...which is usually the case in baseball. You see, that's the difference between winning in February-May, and winning in June. Since 1989, how many A&M baseball teams have spent time at #1 in the regular season? I may be off by a year or so on some of these going from memory, but let's see...1989, 1993, 1999, 2009, 2015, 2016. That's six regular season No. 1 teams in the nation, and all six have combined for one win in Omaha. (Ironically, that one win came in 1993 when A&M did have an elite pitching staff with three 1st round draft choices and a second round draft choice (Granger, Wunsch, Moore, Clemons)). That's not including the many teams that were Top 10 in the nation.How anybody can look at the most recent 25-30 year history of Aggie baseball and not want to at least have the discussion why so many good teams have faltered on the national stage is really bizarre for a group of posters who follow this program closely.

Once again, you will feverishly tell me "wrong, wrong, wrong, no, no, no..." when I provide my analysis, but I've yet to hear you or anybody explain that if the Texas A&M program has had sufficient talent over the past 11 years to win the CWS, as you seem to suggest, then what is the reason why the program has zero wins in Omaha? Has it been 11 years of bad luck and bad karma? In the short term, you have to account for the randomness and luck in the game of baseball. The better team will lose on occasion. But when the time frame is 11+ years, it's time to analyze the long-term reasons why the program consistently gets to the cusp but can't break through.

There has to be a reason that over the course of the last 11 years...heck, we could expand that to the last 20 years...why every major competitor in the state of Texas has more CWS wins than Texas A&M. Why did Rice win a national championship and go to the CWS multiple times? Why has TCU gone to the CWS three straight seasons? Why has Texas Tech gone from no NCAA Regional appearances since 2004 to the CWS in just two years and two CWS appearances in four years with a new coach?

Rational, analytical people must be curious as to why Texas A&M has not broken through as a regular or semi-regular participant in Omaha. Refusing to discuss what the program needs to do to get over the hump and ignoring that the program seems to hit a ceiling in most years in the post-season is worthy of a legitimate discussion and not a bunch dismissive responses with no credible information to add other than a cute laughing emoji at the top of the post.

Once again, I actually think there are signs that Childress has softened and has begun to tap into these local and regional academies with some recent 2017 signees and a pair of nice 2018 commits from the Twelves. It would be nice to see the recruiting classes fall consistently into the Top 10 when re-graded after the draft. I actually think the program can break through in a couple of years....but it has to be done.
Lance Uppercut
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I asked you to name all the kids who left the program like Ivey, you can't do it.

I asked you who all the teams were this year that had a clear talent advantage over the Aggies this season, you can't do it (Florida is the only one I can think of).

I ask why select team kids from Houston aren't local enough but kids from 4 local high schools are, apparently, the key to a NC, you ignore it.


I ask you to name all the programs that have guys habitually dropping in the draft and ignoring millions of dollars to play college ball, you can't name them.

Gossip from baseball parents isn't "analysis", and a minority opinion that we can't recruit and the players from one of 4 high schools in the entire state are the answer barely meets the criteria. You claim rationality but you can't show your work when it comes to telling people that there are a lot of college baseball programs that get guys to forego the draft and millions because it isn't true. Even the Frogs' site called the Lodolo episode a "massive coup" because they know that it's not something that happens very often.

No one is refusing to discuss anything, it's just that 90% of the board came to a different conclusion than you did in terms of assessing if we had the talent to win more games in the postseason.
MadDog73
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Sandman98
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Lance Uppercut
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And that's another thing...if you make the obvious conclusion that Childress won't get fired this year, people think you're "explaining away" the postseason. I've said many times before, in all major men's sports at A&M, the internet won't solve a thing. You need an athletic director that's funded and then allowed to do his job without people pulling the strings. Texas A&M hasn't had anything approaching that in my entire lifetime. Keep in mind Childress' extension came in 2013 after we eked into the postseason, moved to 2018 when it would have been up after this season (2016). Let me know how message boards were culpable for that.

If/when Childress is fired, the postseason shortcomings will be #1 and maybe the only reason mentioned for moving on. In the meantime, I don't think anyone can argue that seasons like 2015 and 2016 wouldn't get Childress fired even if A&M had a more "active" AD. At most, they would set the table for worse seasons down the road.
Bunk Moreland
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F'n a. How have I not taken this thread off my watch list by now. Going to definitely do so immediately.
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