*****Official Regional Projection Thread*****

10,914 Views | 61 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by Sean98
TXAggie2011
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AG
quote:
I don't get the fascination with Washington hosting. Spare me "leading conference" and "west coast." RPI is 38. Awful.


Who is fascinated with that? Honest question.


It doesn't make sense. They're not close to any non-Pac 12 post-season quality teams except Gonzaga who may have to win their conference tournament to get in.
threeanout
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We have to win one of the two remaining series to be guaranteed a national seed. If Ole Miss or USCe goes 5-1 in their last two series, they will likely be a national seed. If both go 5-1, then we could be the odd team out.
Yell Practice
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SchizoAg
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quote:
We have to win one of the two remaining series to be guaranteed a national seed. If Ole Miss or USCe goes 5-1 in their last two series, they will likely be a national seed. If both go 5-1, then we could be the odd team out.
Winning both remaining series 2-1 doesn't guarantee us a national seed, IMO. (It should, but that's a different story.) We need to win the west division and at least 1 game in the SEC tourney to be safe from another NCAA screw job.
gougler08
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AG
quote:
quote:
We have to win one of the two remaining series to be guaranteed a national seed. If Ole Miss or USCe goes 5-1 in their last two series, they will likely be a national seed. If both go 5-1, then we could be the odd team out.
Winning both remaining series 2-1 doesn't guarantee us a national seed, IMO. (It should, but that's a different story.) We need to win the west division and at least 1 game in the SEC tourney to be safe from another NCAA screw job.


You guys are paranoid about the NCAA screwing us. If we win both series we are a top 4 national seed
twk
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AG
quote:
quote:
We have to win one of the two remaining series to be guaranteed a national seed. If Ole Miss or USCe goes 5-1 in their last two series, they will likely be a national seed. If both go 5-1, then we could be the odd team out.
Winning both remaining series 2-1 doesn't guarantee us a national seed, IMO. (It should, but that's a different story.) We need to win the west division and at least 1 game in the SEC tourney to be safe from another NCAA screw job.
If we go 20-10 in the SEC, with series wins over LSU, MSU, Vandy, South Carolina, and Ole Miss, we'll be one of the top 4 national seeds--we won't even ben on the bubble. You need to check your BAS. MSU could win out and beat us to the division/conference championship, but it wouldn't matter.
SchizoAg
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I disagree. I think the only 2 guaranteed national seeds from the SEC are the two division winners. Then there will most likely be one more national seed from the SEC. If SC and Ole Miss match our record over the last 6 (at 4-2, but each losing their series to us 2-1) and perform better than us in the SEC tourney, the NCAA will have all of the excuses they need to pick one or the other over us.

Granted this scenario isn't likely, but if it happens, then we aren't guaranteed a national seed, even having won our last 2 series.
jkag89
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It is likelier that the ACC or SEC gets a fourth NS than either only getting only two at this point. tech is the only team outside of those two conferences that has a solid resume within the historical parameters in which the committee draws NS.
W
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if the Ags win another game in Columbia, I think the national seed is a lock.

that would be the Ags' 4th series win over top 15 RPI opponents --- and 2 would be on the road. All the metrics...road wins, top 50 wins, etc.., would look great.

-----
one thing to remember all the other teams competing for national seeds are going to lose games over the next 2 weekends. There will be only 1 winner of the SEC tournament and 1 winner of the ACC tournament.

plus Florida State & Miami still have a 3-game series against one another. So do LSU & Florida next weekend. South Carolina goes to Alabama. Ole Miss will be at Blue Bell. And Louisville & NCState have 2 more games to play this weekend.

Tech and Miss State are the 2 teams that could win out in the regular season. But the Ags have the trump card on the Bulldogs
SchizoAg
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quote:
if the Ags win another game in Columbia, I think the national seed is a lock.

that would be the Ags' 4th series win over top 15 RPI opponents --- and 2 would be on the road. All the metrics...road wins, top 50 wins, etc.., would look great.
Yeah, it would look great at that point, but you guys are all saying it would be a lock, and it's not.

What if Ole Miss sweeps us at Blue Bell and wins the division, and Miss St. wins the SEC tournament?
twk
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quote:
I disagree. I think the only 2 guaranteed national seeds from the SEC are the two division winners. Then there will most likely be one more national seed from the SEC. If SC and Ole Miss match our record over the last 6 (at 4-2, but each losing their series to us 2-1) and perform better than us in the SEC tourney, the NCAA will have all of the excuses they need to pick one or the other over us.

Granted this scenario isn't likely, but if it happens, then we aren't guaranteed a national seed, even having won our last 2 series.
Conference standings really don't mean much to the committee, especially where you don't play the same schedule. The only time we were a top 8 seed, we were Big XII champs and #8, while runner up Baylor was the #5 seed. If we win these last two series, we will be seeded higher than State no matter where we finish in the conference standings.
SchizoAg
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Conference standings don't matter, but championships do. And the SEC West championship is at least as impressive as any conference championship other than the SEC or ACC.

Also: The NCAA selection committee isn't bound by any precedents it set in the past. My predictions are based on recent trends in their choices.
twk
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quote:
Conference standings don't matter, but championships do. And the SEC West championship is at least as impressive as any conference championship other than the SEC or ACC.
So, you think if we go 20-10, having swept MSU at their place, and having played the tougher schedule (they played Vandy, Georgia, Florida and Missouri, while we got USC instead of Missouri), if they finish 21-9, you think they are getting a national seed ahead of us? Not going to happen. Now, this could all be academic--we could drop the ball, or State could lose to Auburn or Arkansas, but if it plays out in the hypothetical we're discussing, we're going to be a top 4 national seed, period. State might be a national seed, but they will be in the 5-8 range, in all likelihood.
W
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Ole Miss has a good resume, but lost their series to South Carolina and Miss State. And luckily did not play Vanderbilt or Florida. The Rebels are 11-10 vs. the top 50. Should be a lock for a regional host. But clearly behind UF, A&M, and State in the national seed pecking order...and I don't think a series win at Blue Bell would be enough to move them past the Ags --- if A&M goes ahead and wins the series in Columbia today or tomorrow
Frisco - Ag
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It's not possible for ole miss to pass the Ags.
SchizoAg
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quote:
quote:
Conference standings don't matter, but championships do. And the SEC West championship is at least as impressive as any conference championship other than the SEC or ACC.
So, you think if we go 20-10, having swept MSU at their place, and having played the tougher schedule (they played Vandy, Georgia, Florida and Missouri, while we got USC instead of Missouri), if they finish 21-9, you think they are getting a national seed ahead of us? Not going to happen.
If after that we go winless in the SEC tournament and they win it, I could see the NCAA giving them the nod over us, yes.
twk
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I suppose anything is possible, but we aren't losing out on a national seed if we finish 20-10 in the SEC, with the schedule we had to play.
Rocco S
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quote:
quote:
I disagree. I think the only 2 guaranteed national seeds from the SEC are the two division winners. Then there will most likely be one more national seed from the SEC. If SC and Ole Miss match our record over the last 6 (at 4-2, but each losing their series to us 2-1) and perform better than us in the SEC tourney, the NCAA will have all of the excuses they need to pick one or the other over us.

Granted this scenario isn't likely, but if it happens, then we aren't guaranteed a national seed, even having won our last 2 series.
Conference standings really don't mean much to the committee, especially where you don't play the same schedule. The only time we were a top 8 seed, we were Big XII champs and #8, while runner up Baylor was the #5 seed. If we win these last two series, we will be seeded higher than State no matter where we finish in the conference standings.


We were 7 and Baylor was 4.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_NCAA_Division_I_Baseball_Tournament
ScoutBanderaAg956
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The selection process is unpredictable at best, no one is a lock in my book. The only option is to keep winning!
EMY92
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quote:
quote:
We have to win one of the two remaining series to be guaranteed a national seed. If Ole Miss or USCe goes 5-1 in their last two series, they will likely be a national seed. If both go 5-1, then we could be the odd team out.
Winning both remaining series 2-1 doesn't guarantee us a national seed, IMO. (It should, but that's a different story.) We need to win the west division and at least 1 game in the SEC tourney to be safe from another NCAA screw job.
If we go 2-1 in our final 2 series, Ole Miss & LSU are eliminated from contention for the West title.

MSU would need to win their remaining 5 conference games to tie, but we have the tie breaker due to the sweep.

If we go 2-1 in both series, we will be the West champions and have a shot at the regular season SEC title. We would be a national seed lock before the SEC tourney begins.
titanmaster_race
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Are there even tiebreakersfor awarding division champs? Or is it like basketball where they award co-champions and tiebreakers only matter for tournament seeding?
twk
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AG
quote:
Are there even tiebreakersfor awarding division champs? Or is it like basketball where they award co-champions and tiebreakers only matter for tournament seeding?
It only matters for tournament seeding. I'm not even sure if there is a division championship trophy.
SchizoAg
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quote:
If we go 2-1 in our final 2 series, Ole Miss & LSU are eliminated from contention for the West title.

MSU would need to win their remaining 5 conference games to tie, but we have the tie breaker due to the sweep.

If we go 2-1 in both series, we will be the West champions and have a shot at the regular season SEC title. We would be a national seed lock before the SEC tourney begins.
I think you're right. I didn't realize that winning both series 2-1 entailed at least tying for the division lead.
W
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I think the Ags locked up the national seed tonight.

weekend resume now includes series wins:

at #7 South Carolina
at #8 State
#9 Vanderbilt
#12 LSU

road record is 12-7.

top 50 record is 13-6 (and could go to 16-6 with Fresno right on the top 50 threshold)
themissinglink
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exp
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I guess that depends what your definition of "tied" is.
twk
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I guess that depends what your definition of "tied" is.
I don't think Kendall was a math major.
Sean98
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Didn't realize until this morning that Michigan puked up their lunch over the weekend. Swept by a dreadful Ohio State team. So Long to any chance of being regional host. Now pack your bags and get ready to travel.

...anyone know whether Bryant's park meets the minimum qualifications for hosting? A Rhode Island host spot might please the NCAA brass greatly.


EDIT: It appears that Bryant's Conaty Park is unlikely to meet any sort of minimum threshold for hosting a regional.

quote:
The facility includes bleacher seating for 500, including 200 chairback seats, as well as a new state-of-the-art press box for all in-game operations and broadcasts, turning the facility into arguably the best baseball/softball complex in New England.


Look at all that beautiful seating down the lines!!




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