5/11 update (thanks to themissinglink for taking care of the legwork)

D1Baseball

College Station
1. Texas A&M (#3 overall seed)
2. Creighton
3. Dallas Baptist
4. Oral Roberts

Matched up with...

Tuscan, Arizona
1. Arizona
2. Cal State Fullerton
3. St. Mary's
4. Fresno State

Baseball America

College Station
1. Texas A&M (#5 overall seed)
2. Clemson
3. Dallas Baptist
4. Oral Roberts

matched up with...

Houston, Texas
1. Rice
2. TCU
3. SE Louisiana
4. Kent State

Implicit in both is an Ag loss this weekend. Gotta shake that up.

Also BBA gives the SEC four of the top 9 seeds!

Oh I totally agree on them being inaccurate, but they're fun to look at and discuss and see how the national guys view A&M

They feel like they have to give one national seed to a bdf team whether it's tech or tcu. Even though they don't deserve it

tech is more deserving than UCSB. hosting not one, but possibly two tournaments 150 miles from their campus would be sad

Tech's RPI is kind of deceptive.

The Red Raiders' best series win is against #40 Oklahoma State (19-13) who frankly is not very good.

Tech has only played 3 games vs. top 30 opponents (2-1 record) and two of those game were midweek affairs.

no one should fear a super-regional pairing with Tech

the interesting thing for the Ags...will the committee send local teams (the "Texas-stuffed" regional like we saw in Houston in 2014) or fly in teams from across the country like last year (Cal and Coastal) to BBP.

among TCU, Rice, and Houston...none of them might host. Which means they all could be #2 seeds (or #3 seed in UH's case).

to be honest...how boring would this regional be?:

1. A&M
2. Rice
3. UH
4. .....

fortunately there should be enough #2 seeds and #3 seeds from the west coast that will need a landing spot...such that College Station would not get all Texas schools

I would like to see the Aggies host, and the 2 or 3 seed be a Texas team.

1. Texas A&M
2. Tech/UH/Rice
3. West coast team
4. Mid major

I would highly recommend listening to the d1baseball podcast regarding their field of 64

should be fun to see this coming week's projections...

- A&M should be upgraded to a national seed

- LSU should be a regional host

- State is on the outside looking in for both

- N.C. State should be a host taking away Clemson's slot

- Houston is not a regional team

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I would like to see the Aggies host, and the 2 or 3 seed be a Texas team.

1. Texas A&M
2. Tech/UH/Rice
3. West coast team
4. Mid major

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Tech will be a host and quite possibly a national seed. Houston is currently out of post-season consideration but could play their way back in. At this point, our #2 seed would be TCU or Rice.

Rice and tcu are both looking like fringe host material. My guess is that one of them ends up a host and paired with us in the supers (tcu) while the other is the number 2 seed in our regional (rice).

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should be fun to see this coming week's projections...

- A&M should be upgraded to a national seed

- LSU should be a regional host

- State is on the outside looking in for both

- N.C. State should be a host taking away Clemson's slot

- Houston is not a regional team

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No way does State, with a good SEC record and that fan support NOT host. They probably played out of National seed though.

Funny that we started the year thinking the third SEC national seed would be out of the east. I still think for at least consideration, State and LSU could play back in. Their schedules are pretty favorable.

the SEC will need 6 host slots if all these teams are going to host:

A&M, LSU, State, UF, Vandy, and SCar.

if the league only gets 5...someone has to get left out. Right now I think it's going to be the loser of the LSU-State series next weekend

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the SEC will need 6 host slots if all these teams are going to host:

A&M, LSU, State, UF, Vandy, and SCar.

if the league only gets 5...someone has to get left out. Right now I think it's going to be the loser of the LSU-State series next weekend

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I think the SEC gets a minimum of 5 regional host slots, maybe 6. The State/LSU series is pretty big for both teams. LSU's schedule is much tougher than State's moving forward, so they could obviously use a sweep this weekend.

This is going to be a fun thing to watch over the next month. Very good baseball teams battling it out for positioning. Gotta love SEC baseball, there simply is no better.

***4/20 UPDATE***
The Ags have moved into consensus national seed territory after the big sweep in Starkville last weekend.

D1baseball

College Station Regional:
1 Texas A&M (4)
2 Oklahoma State
3 Dallas Baptist
4 Navy

Houston Regional
1 Rice
2 Virginia
3 Stanford
4 SE Louisiana

National Seeds:
1. Florida (paired with Minnesota)
2. Miami (Mississippi State)
3. Louisville (Vanderbilt)
4. Texas A&M (Rice)
5. UC Santa Barbara (California)
6. Texas Tech (LSU) - I think Dan Law Field would cease to exist
7. Florida State (TCU)
8. South Carolina (NC State)

Baseball America

College Station Regional
1 Texas A&M (5)
2 Oregon State
3 Dallas Baptist
4 Oral Roberts

Berkeley Regional
1 UC Santa Barbara
2 California (Host)
3 Saint Mary's
4 Seattle

National Seeds
1. Florida (Paired with Louisiana Lafayette)
2. Miami (Southern Miss)
3. Louisville (Coastal Carolina)
4. Texas Tech (Rice)
5. Texas A&M (UC Santa Barbara*)
6. South Carolina (NC State)
7. Florida State (Vanderbilt)
8. TCU (Mississippi State)
*UC Santa Barbara is traveling to Cal-Berkeley as the 1 seed in this projection

College Baseball Daily

College Station Regional
1 Texas A&M (4)
2 TCU
3 Notre Dame
4 Dallas Baptist

Chapel Hill Regional
1 North Carolina
2 Mississippi State
3 UNC Greensboro
4 Miami (OH)

National Seeds
1. Florida (Paired with Florida State)
2. Miami (Coastal Carolina)
3. Louisville (Vanderbilt)
4. Texas A&M (North Carolina)
5. South Carolina (Clemson)
6. NC State (Texas Tech)
7. Ole Miss (Louisiana Lafayette)
8. UC Santa Barbara (LSU)


The Ags just need to hold serve these next couple of weeks (and hopefully get another sweep or two) and we'll be looking good heading into some more big time showdowns in May!

Assume the following W/L for the rest of the season. Based on dropping 1 of 3 in home series and 2 of 3 in road series.To me, that is worst case scenario.

Bama (2-1)
UTA (1-0)
@Arky (1-2)
IW (1-0)
Vandy (2-1)
@USCe (1-2)
SHSU (1-0)
Ole Miss (2-1)

That puts the record at 41-14. Throw in a couple of more wins at the SEC tourney and we finish something like 43-15. Certainly good enough for a Regional, national seed questionable.

Now, say we sweep a series at home and take 2 of 3 at Arky, both possible. We'd finish 45-13 (ish). That would mean a national seed most likely.

(edited because I forgot Incarnate Word)

I don't believe our national seed will rely so much on our overall W-L record as it will our final standing in the SEC. If we win the West and/or finish in the top 3 of the league overall, we should be a national seed. If we finish 2nd or worse in the West and/or finish 4th or worse overall in the SEC, our national seed is gone.

In a nutshell, I believe we not only have to win at a good pace, but we also need other SEC contenders to lose as well...just to be safe.

And realistically, we have to sweep Bama at home this weekend (they're good but not great) and we have to win the series at Arkansas (the Hogs are sliding badly...can't lose a series to them).

***4/27 UPDATE***
The Ags have held steady with the various projections after another successful week and SEC series win. D1 is now projecting 4 SEC national seeds, which would be unprecidented. If it's ever going to happen, however, it'll be this year.

D1baseball

College Station Regional:
1 Texas A&M (3)
2 Oklahoma State
3 Dallas Baptist
4 Princeton

Fort Worth Regional
1 TCU
2 Rice
3 Washington
4 Oral Roberts

National Seeds:
1. Florida (paired with Minnesota)
2. Miami (Coastal Carolina)
3. Texas A&M (TCU)
4. Florida State (LSU)
5. Mississippi State (Southern Miss)
6. South Carolina (NC State)
7. Louisville (UC Santa Barbara)
8. Texas Tech (Arizona)

Baseball America

College Station Regional
1 Texas A&M (5)
2 Oklahoma State
3 Lamar
4 Navy

Houston Regional
1 Rice
2 LSU
3 Cal St Fullerton
4 New Mexico

National Seeds
1. Florida (Paired with Louisiana Lafayette)
2. Miami (Southern Miss)
3. South Carolina (Minnesota)
4. Florida State (TCU)
5. Texas A&M (Rice)
6. Texas Tech (Ole Miss)
7. Louisville (Mississippi State)
8. Coastal Carolina (NC State)

College Baseball Daily

College Station Regional
1 Texas A&M (4)
2 TCU
3 Dallas Baptist
4 Tulane

Lubbock Regional
1 Texas Tech
2 Rice
3 Pittsburgh
4 Gonzaga

National Seeds
1. Florida (Paired with North Carolina)
2. Miami (Coastal Carolina)
3. South Carolina (Clemson)
4. Texas A&M (Texas Tech)
5. Ole Miss (Louisiana Lafayette)
6. Florida State (LSU)
7. Miami (Mississippi State)
8. NC State (Coastal Carolina)


The Ags just need to hold serve these next couple of weeks (and hopefully get another sweep or two) and we'll be looking good heading into some more big time showdowns in May!

Meanwhile Texas Tech gets UCSB. I'd take a UCSB over a Viriginia pairing any day.

According to Boyd's RPI needs report, the Ags could wrap up a Top 8 RPI with 2 wins in SC or just 1 win in College Station.

There are 13 teams in his list with a chance for a Top 8 RPI ranking:

1) Florida is the only team that has locked up a spot

2-5) Louisville (1 more win), Texas A&M (2), North Carolina St. (2), and Miami (3) can all play below .500 the rest of the season and still lock up a Top 8 spot

6-9) Ole Miss (4), South Carolina (5), Vanderbilt (6), and Florida St. (6) have the next best chance to secure a Top 8 spot

10-13) North Carolina (7), Clemson (8), LSU (8), and Georgia Tech (9) all need some incredible luck. North Carolina, Clemson, and LSU can only lose 1 more game this year, and Georgia Tech has to be perfect.

5/11 update

D1Baseball

College Station
1. Texas A&M (#3 overall seed)
2. Creighton
3. Dallas Baptist
4. Oral Roberts

Matched up with...

Tuscan, Arizona
1. Arizona
2. Cal State Fullerton
3. St. Mary's
4. Fresno State

Baseball America

College Station
1. Texas A&M (#5 overall seed)
2. Clemson
3. Dallas Baptist
4. Oral Roberts

matched up with...

Houston, Texas
1. Rice
2. TCU
3. SE Louisiana
4. Kent State

I would take D1s projection in a heartbeat.

I'd take either of those, although would prefer Rice.

I would also take D1's, but my suspicion is that we end up with Rice or TCU in the as a #2 seed in the regional or in the supers. Somehow, we are able to do that in their projection, but it has TCU going to Ann Arbor, which doesn't really make much sense when the NCAA can cut travel costs by sending them to CS (teams are required to take the bus if <350 miles). D1's projections have neither hosting a region, but I would guess Rice gets one if they win CUSA. They have So Miss (who Rice is tied with) getting the host, but I believe one of their pitchers went down with an injury.

Baseball America's projections would basically be giving us a giant middle finger. Have a ****ty TTU team as the #4 national seed, send #8 RPI to College Station as the 2 seed, and matching us with Rice/TCU in the Supers. Given that Hyman isn't on the committee anymore, I don't see that happening.

Thanks! Doing a lot of driving today so I wasn't going to be able to post very much!

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I would take D1s projection in a heartbeat.

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this

I'm tired of tcu/rice. Gimme the squishy west coast pitching

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Tuscan, Arizona
1. Arizona
2. Cal State Fullerton
3. St. Mary's
4. Fresno State

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I've been to Tuscany, and I've been to Arizona... but I've never been to Tuscan, Arizona.

...that said, while Arizona is a pretty good ballclub, I would like that matchup.

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Baseball America's projections would basically be giving us a giant middle finger. Have a ****ty TTU team as the #4 national seed, send #8 RPI to College Station as the 2 seed, and matching us with Rice/TCU in the Supers.

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Well, it would suck, but Clemson is probably going to be a 2 seed somewhere. Great RPI, not very good conference record. The NCAA is going to have to find an excuse to not let some ACC and SEC teams with RPIs in the top 16 host so that they can work in a couple of west coast regionals, and probably one in the Midwest, too.

I don't get the fascination with Washington hosting. Spare me "leading conference" and "west coast." RPI is 38. Awful.