Again the myth of National Champion is CRUSHED!

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JeffHamilton82
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12:31p, 6/25/15
All this clamoring to be a national seed. Everyone saying you have to win your conference or win your conference tournament. Or you have to be in the top tier of your conference. That you have to enter the playoffs playing your best ball are FOS again.

VA finished 7th in the ACC
VA was 1-3 in the ACC tournament
VA was 6-4 in their final 10 games before the NCAA playoffs and lost their last 3 games
VA was 3-3 in their final 6 weekend series.
VA was 15-14 in April and May leading up to the NCAA playoffs.
VA was 34-22 when the playoffs started

VA did not win their conference, their conference tourney, they weren't even in the top tier of their conference and they weren't on a hot streak when the playoffs started. No one picked them to win it all when the playoffs started. But as the recent trend (last 10 years or so) has shown the favorites (national seeds) fall by the wayside and the unlikely teams continue to bring home the hardware. Keep this in mind when you are freaking out in April and May, that those months don't matter. June matters.

There has probably been as many or even more teams win the national title the last 10 years that didn't even host a regional as national seeds who won the title!!!
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Rocco S
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12:36p, 6/25/15
UVA got into an incredibly weak Regional not played anywhere near the host school's campus and got to play at home in the Super Regional round.

6 of the 8 teams in Omaha played at home in the SR round.

Your post = crushed.
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Tobias Funke
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In reply to Rocco S • 12:37p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
UVA got into an incredibly weak Regional not played anywhere near the host school's campus and got to play at home in the Super Regional round.

Your post = crushed.


Not really.
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JeffHamilton82
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In reply to Rocco S • 12:50p, 6/25/15
quote:
UVA got into an incredibly weak Regional not played anywhere near the host school's campus and got to play at home in the Super Regional round.

6 of the 8 teams in Omaha played at home in the SR round.

Your post = crushed.

You obviously don't follow baseball. Go check the last 10 champions. How many of them were national seeds (top 8)? Virginia and Fresno winning would be like a #9 or 12 seed winning March Madness, which has never happened. Well it has happened twice in the last 10 years in baseball. Even last years champ (Vanderbilt) finished 5th in their conference and did not come close to winning the SEC tourney. You don't have to be a top team on a hot streak to win the title in baseball.
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Rocco S
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In reply to Tobias Funke • 12:52p, 6/25/15
quote:
quote:
UVA got into an incredibly weak Regional not played anywhere near the host school's campus and got to play at home in the Super Regional round.

Your post = crushed.


Not really.
Yes, really.

No one has argued that winning your conference or conference tournament matters in post season. What does matter is playing at home in the post season, especially in the SR round. Once again, the vast majority of the teams in Omaha were playing at home in the SR round. What's the best way to ensure you're playing at home in the SR round? Getting a national seed.
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12:52p, 6/25/15
BQ_90
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12:53p, 6/25/15
AG
I'm not sure anyone here has said we must have a NS to make it to Omaha. I think as fans we're frustrated because we've not been able to see our team play as a NS at home. I understand people look at the results and then declare a trend, but there are some many factors from year to year.

I still think we win if the SR this year was played in CS. I think you had a lot of teams on the same level. I don't think there was super elite teams.

Obviously getting hot at the right time matters, much like Fresno St years back.
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Rocco S
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12:55p, 6/25/15
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.

6 of the last 7 played at home during the SR round.

The only team to win the NC and not play at home in the SR round was South Carolina in 2010, who "traveled" to national seed Coastal Carolina.
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jkag89
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In reply to Rocco S • 1:27p, 6/25/15
quote:
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.
Um no. Over the past seven seasons, 2 National Champs entered the Tournament as National Seeds.

2015 Virginia - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2014 Vandy - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2013 UCLA - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Fullerton
2012 Arizona - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2011 South Carolina - #4 National Seed
2010 South Carolina - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Coastal Carolina
2009 LSU - #3 National Seed

To extend to the ten year period of the OP
2008 Fresno St. - #4 seed, won SR hosted by Arizona St.
2007 Oregon St. - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2006 Oregon St. - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round

So over the past ten seasons 2 National Seeds have won CWS, three schools that did not host at the regional level won the title.
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JeffHamilton82
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In reply to Rocco S • 1:32p, 6/25/15
quote:
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.

6 of the last 7 played at home during the SR round.

The only team to win the NC and not play at home in the SR round was South Carolina in 2010, who "traveled" to national seed Coastal Carolina.

Have you ever posted anything that was factually correct? You might not jump to the wrong conclusions if you would get your facts straight first.
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JeffHamilton82
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In reply to jkag89 • 1:35p, 6/25/15
quote:
So over the past ten seasons 2 National Seeds have won CWS, three schools that did not host at the regional level won the title.

Thank you for providing the data that backs up my point. Over the last 10 years 50% more teams have won the title that didn't even host a regional versus teams that were a national seed.
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TXAggie2011
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1:35p, 6/25/15
AG
Jeff, do you think there is a disadvantage to being a national seed and/or playing at home?
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JeffHamilton82
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 1:42p, 6/25/15
quote:
Jeff, do you think there is a disadvantage to being a national seed and/or playing at home?

The stats show that when it comes to winning the national championship that it doesn't matter if you won your conference or conference tourney or were the hot team during the month of May. This is the myth that is crushed. Posters here get all caught up in May saying we can't win the title because we're not winning in May. We didn't win the conference or the conference tourney.
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Rocco S
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In reply to jkag89 • 1:44p, 6/25/15
quote:
quote:
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.
Um no. Over the past seven seasons, 2 National Champs entered the Tournament as National Seeds.

2015 Virginia - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2014 Vandy - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2013 UCLA - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Fullerton
2012 Arizona - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2011 South Carolina - #4 National Seed
2010 South Carolina - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Coastal Carolina
2009 LSU - #3 National Seed

To extend to the ten year period of the OP
2008 Fresno St. - #4 seed, won SR hosted by Arizona St.
2007 Oregon St. - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2006 Oregon St. - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round

So over the past ten seasons 2 National Seeds have won CWS, three schools that did not host at the regional level won the title.

Ok, so 5 of the last 7 national champions played at home during the SR round. So my point stands.

6 of the 8 teams in Omaha played at home during the SR round.
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Foxo
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In reply to BQ_90 • 1:44p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
I'm not sure anyone here has said we must have a NS to make it to Omaha. I think as fans we're frustrated because we've not been able to see our team play as a NS at home. I understand people look at the results and then declare a trend, but there are some many factors from year to year.

I still think we win if the SR this year was played in CS. I think you had a lot of teams on the same level. I don't think there was super elite teams.

Obviously getting hot at the right time matters, much like Fresno St years back.
How did we do at home vs on the road vs SEC competition? I'm under the impression that home was little or no better than on the road. I remember coach saying on the road that the team was more focused.
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Bernie13
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1:44p, 6/25/15
I bet none of those teams wnt 0-12 with runners in scoring position at any time in the playoff run either.
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jkag89
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In reply to Rocco S • 1:50p, 6/25/15
quote:
quote:
quote:
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.
Um no. Over the past seven seasons, 2 National Champs entered the Tournament as National Seeds.

2015 Virginia - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2014 Vandy - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2013 UCLA - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Fullerton
2012 Arizona - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2011 South Carolina - #4 National Seed
2010 South Carolina - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Coastal Carolina
2009 LSU - #3 National Seed

To extend to the ten year period of the OP
2008 Fresno St. - #4 seed, won SR hosted by Arizona St.
2007 Oregon St. - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2006 Oregon St. - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round

So over the past ten seasons 2 National Seeds have won CWS, three schools that did not host at the regional level won the title.

Ok, so 5 of the last 7 national champions played at home during the SR round. So my point stands.

6 of the 8 teams in Omaha played at home during the SR round.
Yes it is good to host a Super Regional, and getting the nod as a National Seed certainly paves the way, however the two host that lost in the SR this year were National Seeds.
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mdanyc03
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In reply to Rocco S • 1:50p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.
Um no. Over the past seven seasons, 2 National Champs entered the Tournament as National Seeds.

2015 Virginia - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2014 Vandy - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2013 UCLA - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Fullerton
2012 Arizona - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2011 South Carolina - #4 National Seed
2010 South Carolina - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Coastal Carolina
2009 LSU - #3 National Seed

To extend to the ten year period of the OP
2008 Fresno St. - #4 seed, won SR hosted by Arizona St.
2007 Oregon St. - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2006 Oregon St. - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round

So over the past ten seasons 2 National Seeds have won CWS, three schools that did not host at the regional level won the title.

Ok, so 5 of the last 7 national champions played at home during the SR round. So my point stands.

6 of the 8 teams in Omaha played at home during the SR round.
Well since half of the teams play at home during the super regional round by definition, 5 of 7 is not really statistically significant.
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Basketball and Chain
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1:55p, 6/25/15
AG
You can't win the national title if you don't get to Omaha. The best chance to get to Omaha is with a national seed (50%+ from the outset) or hosting a Super Regional (about 75%). How do you ensure you host a SR? Earn a national seed.

This isn't complicated.

I dont recall anyone equating a national seed to a national championship, but it damn sure increases your odds of fighting for it.
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Rocco S
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In reply to mdanyc03 • 1:57p, 6/25/15
quote:
quote:
quote:
quote:
5 of the last 7 national champions were national seeds.
Um no. Over the past seven seasons, 2 National Champs entered the Tournament as National Seeds.

2015 Virginia - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2014 Vandy - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2013 UCLA - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Fullerton
2012 Arizona - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round
2011 South Carolina - #4 National Seed
2010 South Carolina - Regional host but not a National Seed, won SR hosted by Coastal Carolina
2009 LSU - #3 National Seed

To extend to the ten year period of the OP
2008 Fresno St. - #4 seed, won SR hosted by Arizona St.
2007 Oregon St. - #3 seed, did host Super Regional Round
2006 Oregon St. - Regional host but not a National Seed, did host Super Regional Round

So over the past ten seasons 2 National Seeds have won CWS, three schools that did not host at the regional level won the title.

Ok, so 5 of the last 7 national champions played at home during the SR round. So my point stands.

6 of the 8 teams in Omaha played at home during the SR round.
Well since half of the teams play at home during the super regional round by definition, 5 of 7 is not really statistically significant.

5 out of 7 is quite a bit different than 2 out of 7
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Rocco S
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In reply to Basketball and Chain • 1:59p, 6/25/15
quote:
You can't win the national title if you don't get to Omaha. The best chance to get to Omaha is with a national seed (50%+ from the outset) or hosting a Super Regional (about 75%). How do you ensure you host a SR? Earn a national seed.

This isn't complicated.

I dont recall anyone equating a national seed to a national championship, but it damn sure increases your odds of fighting for it.
The end of this thread.

The RC defenders have really tried to carry the "national seed doesn't matter" banner, since we have yet to get one under him. That's all this is really about.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to mdanyc03 • 1:59p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
Well since half of the teams play at home during the super regional round by definition, 5 of 7 is not really statistically significant.
Over the past 7 years, 5 out of 7 have come from the cohort which played at home versus only 2 of the 7 coming from the equally sized cohort which played on the road.

While I think I may understand what you're getting at- some teams got to play at home via luck- the numbers are still there to suggest its better to play at home than away.

The only statistical problem I have is that its a small sample size.
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85AustinAg
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2:02p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
You can't win the national title if you don't get to Omaha. The best chance to get to Omaha is with a national seed (50%+ from the outset) or
hosting a Super Regional (about 75%). How do you ensure you host a SR?
Earn a national seed.


This isn't complicated.

I dont recall anyone equating a national seed to a national championship, but it damn sure increases your odds of fighting for it.



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jkag89
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In reply to Rocco S • 2:06p, 6/25/15
quote:
The RC defenders have really tried to carry the "national seed doesn't matter" banner, since we have yet to get one under him.
And as we have seen, especially this season, the committee will use what criteria it chooses to award those National Seeds. In 2011 & 2015, RC coached teams had resumes deserving at the very least National Seed consideration.
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TXAggie2011
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2:06p, 6/25/15
AG
The bare-bottom, bare bones starting point for me in this evaluation is 2 out 56 national seeds have won a title and 5 out of 392 non-national seeds have won the title.

3.8% of national seeds have won a title over the past 7 years, while 1.3% of non-national seeds have won a national title over the past 7 years.

You are nearly 3 times as likely to win a national championship if you're a national seed than you are if you are not a national seed.

You can make comparisons among different cohorts, you might want to argue all those scrub 4 seeds shouldn't count, but I'm still going to feel pretty good about being a national seed.

Jeff, I think you've shown that we shouldn't worry too much about national seeds or conference championships, or whatever, and that is an argument I've made on here too---so I'm agreement as far as that---but the numbers still say you're giving yourself as good as shot as you'll get if you are a national seed.
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JeffHamilton82
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2:10p, 6/25/15
Over the last 10 years -
regional hosts (9-16) won 2 1/2 times as many titles as national seeds
Non regional hosts won 50% more titles than national seeds
80% of the titles were won by non national seeds

80% vs 20% is pretty significant and I think in the last 4 years it has been 100% vs 0%.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to JeffHamilton82 • 2:14p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
Over the last 10 years -
regional hosts (9-16) won 2 1/2 times as many titles as national seeds
Non regional hosts won 50% more titles than national seeds
80% of the titles were won by non national seeds

80% vs 20% is pretty significant and I think in the last 4 years it has been 100% vs 0%.
its about ODDS, Jeff.

Yes, the 48 yearly non-regional hosts have collected 1 more title than the 8 yearly-national seeds.

That is important to remember, a national seed doesn't guarantee jack **** and not having one doesn't guarantee jack **** either (including not guaranteeing your going to fall short of Omaha or a championship), I'm in full agreement. But I still like my odds as a national seed.

You have a great point here, Jeff, but you're stretching it out too far and losing it.
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jkag89
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 2:19p, 6/25/15
I think a more reasonable way to present this over the past ten seasons:

2 of 80 National Seed have won a NC, 2.5%
5 of 80 other regional hosts have won a NC, 6.25%
3 of 480 non regional host schools (#2 seeds or lower) 0.625%
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to jkag89 • 2:21p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
I think a more reasonable way to present this over the past ten seasons:

2 of 80 National Seed have won a NC, 2.5%
5 of 80 other regional hosts have won a NC, 6.25%
3 of 480 non regional host schools (#2 seeds or lower) 0.625%
Sure. Just going off the 7 year thing. Thanks for that.

And well, there ya go. It at least seems to pay good money to host a regional.
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jkag89
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 2:24p, 6/25/15
The point I'm making here it is not quite fair to dump the other regional hosts in with the #2 - #4 seeds especially considering they have won half of the CWS in the last ten years.

The OP used ten year window, it was Roco that introduced the 7 year time span.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to jkag89 • 2:29p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
The point I'm making here it is not quite fair to dump the other regional hosts in with the #2 - #4 seeds especially considering they have won half of the CWS in the last ten years.

The OP used ten year window, it was Roco that introduced the 7 year time span.
And I won't argue with you over that. Those are the numbers.

Yeah. 7 is advantageous for Rocco's stats and 10 more advantageous for Jeff's stats. (I know Jeff will say he was just using a convenient number and maybe he did).

I know, in total, 7 of the 17 national champions since 1999 and the national seed system was started have been national seeds.

That would be 7 of 136 or 5.14% of national seeds.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to jkag89 • 2:30p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
The point I'm making here it is not quite fair to dump the other regional hosts in with the #2 - #4 seeds especially considering they have won half of the CWS in the last ten years.

The OP used ten year window, it was Roco that introduced the 7 year time span.
And I won't argue with you over that. Those are the numbers.

Yeah. 7 is advantageous for Rocco's stats and 10 more advantageous for Jeff's stats. (I know Jeff will say he was just using a convenient number and maybe he did).

I know, in total, 7 of the 17 national champions since 1999 and the national seed system was started have been national seeds.

That would be 7 of 136 or 5.14% of national seeds.
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jkag89
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 2:41p, 6/25/15
I went with the ten year span because the math was easier.

6 other #1 seeds have won CWS 6 of 136 = 4.41%.
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Yell Practice
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3:06p, 6/25/15
All important to be "Hot at the Moment". Current record not all that important.
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BQ_90
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In reply to Yell Practice • 3:10p, 6/25/15
AG
quote:
All important to be "Hot at the Moment". Current record not all that important.
True but it's very rare to suck the entire season the get hot during post season.

If anything our hitting/defense peaked too early and our pitching peaked at the right time

it's all timing. Elite teams play great the entire year, I'm not sure we had elite teams this year.
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