Historical look on National Seeds/Regional/Super Regional host

2,768 Views | 21 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by Luke The Drifter
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6:49p, 5/26/15
AG
Its been 17 years since the NCAA went from the old 48 team , eight 6 team regionals with winner advancing to Omaha to the current 64 team format with sixteen 4 team regionals and regional winners meeting in a best of 3 super regional.
The Ags were awarded a national seed in the 1st year of the new format in 1999 and hosted a super regional. That was the only season A&M would receive a national seed or host a super regional. That's hard to believe.

Here is a break down of total national seeds, regionals hosted and super regionals hosted by school since the new format inception in 1999

National Seeds
Florida State - 10
LSU - 9
Cal State Fullerton - 8
Rice - 8
Florida - 7
Texas - 7
Arizona State - 6
Georgia Tech - 6
Miami - 6
North Carolina - 6
Stanford - 6
South Carolina - 5
Virginia - 4
Alabama - 3
Baylor - 3
Clemson - 3
Georgia - 3
Nebraska - 3
Oregon State - 3
Vanderbilt - 3
Arkansas - 2
Louisville - 2
TCU - 2
Tulane - 2
UCLA - 2
Auburn- 1
Coastal Carolina- 1
East Carolina - 1
Houston - 1
Illinois - 1
Indiana - 1
Louisiana Lafayette - 1
Missouri State - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Ole Miss - 1
San Diego - 1
Texas A&M - 1
UC Irvine - 1
USC - 1
Wake Forest - 1

Regional Host
Florida State - 15
LSU -13
Cal State Fullerton - 11
Miami - 11
Rice - 11
south Carolina - 10
Texas - 10
Arizona State -9
Florida - 9
Georgia Tech - 9
Stanford - 8
Virginia - 8
Clemson - 7
North Carolina - 7
Texas A&M - 7
Nebraska - 6
Ole Miss - 6
Arkansas - 5
Louisville - 5
Oklahoma- 5
Oregon State - 5
TCU - 5
UCLA - 5
Vanderbilt - 5
Baylor - 4
Georgia 4
Long Beach State - 4
NC State - 4
Notre Dame - 4
Alabama - 3
Coastal Carolina - 3
East Carolina - 3
Houston- 3
Mississippi State - 3
Oklahoma State - 3
USC- 3
Wichita State - 3
Auburn - 2
Indiana - 2
Louisiana Lafayette - 2
Ohio State - 2
Oregon - 2
Tennessee - 2
Tulane - 2
Wake Forest - 2
Arizona - 1
Cal Poly - 1
Connecticut - 1
Dallas Baptist - 1
Illinois - 1
Kansas State - 1
Kentucky - 1
Michigan - 1
Minnesota - 1
Missouri- 1
Missouri State- 1
Pepperdine - 1
Purdue - 1
Rutgers - 1
San Diego - 1
Southern Miss - 1
Texas Tech - 1
UC Irvine - 1
UC Santa Barber - 1
Virginia Tech - 1

Super Regional Host
Florida State - 10
Cal State Fullerton - 9
LSU - 7
Texas - 7
Rice - 6
South Carolina - 6
Florida- 5
Miami - 5
North Carolina - 5
Stanford - 5
Arizona State - 4
Clemson - 4
Oregon State - 4
Virginia - 4
Baylor - 3
Georgia - 3
Nebraska - 3
Ole Miss - 3
Vanderbilt - 3
Alabama - 2
Louisville - 2
Ohio State - 2
Tulane - 2
UCLA - 2
Arizona - 1
Arkansas - 1
East Carolina - 1
California - 1
Coastal Carolina - 1
Houston - 1
long Beach State - 1
Louisiana Lafayette - 1
Mississippi State - 1
NC State - 1
Oklahoma State - 1
Oregon - 1
Texas A&M - 1
Texas Tech - 1
TCU - 1
USC - 1
Wichita State - 1
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W
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7:19p, 5/26/15
AG
2 thoughts right off the bat...

- Florida State is the most underachieving team of the past 17 years. In part because racking up wins in their bandbox stadium against top 20-ish teams doesn't translate to winning in Omaha vs. top 10 teams.

- Rice and Fullerton (and now TCU) show the advantage of being a very good-to-great team in a mediocre conference. It's a fantastic formula for getting national seeds and hosting regionals
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W
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7:24p, 5/26/15
AG
didn't realize that Ole Miss (6) has hosted twice as many regionals as State (3).

it would be interesting to see which programs have won the most road regionals and SR's. Those would tend to be the overachieving programs
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DWren
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7:28p, 5/26/15
Rice and Fullerton have had a tremendous amount of success in regionals, super regionals and in Omaha.
Their conferences are weaker but year in an year out you're not gonna get too many people to argue that those 2 , when they received them , were not worthy of national seeds.
Those are 2 of the more decorated programs in college baseball over the last 17 years .
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Elastrator
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In reply to W • 7:30p, 5/26/15
Cal State Fullerton has a history of sorts in winning the national title, on;y once since the fomat change but three times prior.
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EMY92
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In reply to W • 8:26p, 5/26/15
AG
quote:
- Florida State is the most underachieving team of the past 17 years. In part because racking up wins in their bandbox stadium against top 20-ish teams doesn't translate to winning in Omaha vs. top 10 teams.
FSU has done a great job of making it to Omaha, even appearing in the finals, they just can't close the deal.

However, I think that is great because I greatly dislike FSU.
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Luke The Drifter
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10:18p, 5/26/15
AG
There are a lot of so-so programs that have the same or more national seeds and super regional appearances than A&M. It's time for us to break through very soon (like in the next year or two) or make some top-to-bottom wholesale changes to the program. We have too many positives on our side to be out-performed by the likes of Georgia Tech, Virginia, Alabama, Baylor, Nebraska, Louisville, TCU and Tulane.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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W
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10:20p, 5/26/15
AG
let me use Augie's 2002 to 2005 teams as an example. All 4 years those teams went to the CWS. Had great players like Huston Street, J.P. Howell, Drew Stubbs, et al. But the horns were only a national seed in 2 of those seasons: 2002 & 2004. Why was that? It was because the Big 12 had other great teams in the league with top notch talent like Alex Gordon (Nebraska), David Murphy (Baylor), Cliff Pennington (A&M), and so forth. That also got national seeds and hosted regionals. The horns couldn't win every series and definitely could not sweep every series.

but if those longhorn teams had been playing in a mid-major conference like the WAC, C-USA, or the Mountain West and had only 1 or perhaps zero top teams to compete with inside the league...they would have cruised to conference titles with gaudy W-L records and thus a high RPI -- and easily gotten nationals seeds all 4 years.

being a great team in a mediocre conference doesn't guarantee that a team is going to get to Omaha or win the national title, but it practically guarantees a home regional and most of the time a national seed as well
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W
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10:23p, 5/26/15
AG
back to A&M...I hate to ask, but do the Ags have the greatest delta between:

regional hosts (7) and national seeds (1)

of all the schools on that list?

that's a difference of 6
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Elastrator
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In reply to W • 10:30p, 5/26/15
No, no one has more than a 6 difference. A&M is the only one listed with a 6 dif, there are a couple with 5. Of course this is all predicated that the list is complete.
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AB2
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In reply to W • 10:36p, 5/26/15
AG
I think you're right.

Looking at our 7 hosts, I think we truly deserved a national 3 times (99, 11, 15). '03 was a definite non national. '07 was a bubble just to host because of the 13-13 B12 record. '08's collapse cost us deserving that NS. Can't argue with '12 either given Baylor's dominant season.

I would think 3/7 is a solid host-to-national ratio, but clearly not spectacular. I'd like to see the program be one where we make the postseason 14/15 years, we host 4/7 years, make a NS 1/2 the time we host, and go to Omaha 4/10 years. Asking too much?
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agforlife97
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In reply to W • 10:53p, 5/26/15
AG
quote:
back to A&M...I hate to ask, but do the Ags have the greatest delta between:

regional hosts (7) and national seeds (1)

of all the schools on that list?

that's a difference of 6
Yeah, if you want to point to an underachieving program, we're high on the list. That's one reason why we're easy to screw out of a national seed.
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W
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11:19p, 5/26/15
AG
it's interesting...A&M the last 10 years has been consistently a very good team -- I think quite a bit of that is due to usually having quality pitching. But in multiple seasons the program has struggled to fill out a lineup with strong & athletic hitters -- struggled to trot out a deep lineup (like the 2015 team club has this year).

and when I look at the teams at the top of the national seed list...Florida State, LSU, Arizona State -- I think of great offensive teams that score a lot of runs. In another words teams that win with offense -- not great pitching -- just decent pitching.

Maybe the Ags have had a little bit of the wrong approach. If the 2015 team goes far it would support the theory of great hitting & decent pitching
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Frisco
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11:24p, 5/26/15
AG
I would put that more as great hitting, fair pitching and great defense. I think if you have 2 of 3 then you're covered
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to W • 11:26p, 5/26/15
AG
quote:
- Rice and Fullerton (and now TCU) show the advantage of being a very good-to-great team in a mediocre conference. It's a fantastic formula for getting national seeds and hosting regionals
Both have vindicated their hosting regionals and super regionals on numerous occasions.

You can't rig the RPI to 14 combined College World Series appearances and 2 combined national titles in the last 18 years or so...plus all the success before that.

TCU is now looking to go to Omaha for the 3rd time in 5 years.

These teams show the advantage of being great teams with regularity.
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W
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11:42p, 5/26/15
AG
I could agree with that on Fullerton -- the year the Titans won the national title (2004) -- they were not a national seed.

But for Rice...the Owls' 6 trips to the CWS since the 1999 format change...have all been as national seeds playing at Reckling Park (or the Astrodome). Rice has been absymal in postseason regionals or SR's on the road. They need the fantastic formula mentioned above to advance.

regarding TCU...their CWS appearance in 2010 was due to the bizarre botching of the Matt Purke / Texas Rangers draft situation. That was a gift from the heavens to have a 1st round pick land on your roster.

and then in 2014...the Frogs battled Sam Houston in their regional final...and got another gift in playing 3-seed Pepperdine in their SR. Those are 2 incredible breaks. The Ags might have gotten to Omaha last year with those breaks. There is a degree of luck involved
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W
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11:45p, 5/26/15
AG
in fact (as I've posted before)...I would throw out the entire 2014 postseason from the normal trends and probabilities. I mean Tech scored a grand total of 2 runs in their super regional (against a 4-seed no less)...and advanced to Omaha. That's ridiculous
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Sandman98
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12:57a, 5/27/15
AG
Great work OP. Great posts across the board (especially from W).
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agforlife97
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In reply to W • 7:10a, 5/27/15
AG
quote:
There is a degree of luck involved
Your chances of getting lucky improve pretty dramatically though when you are right there with the top 10 every year. Rice has been very good under Wayne Graham because he's a fantastic coach, one of the best ever. They will go right back to sucking as soon as he hangs it up.
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Luke The Drifter
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8:48a, 5/27/15
AG
One thing that is consistent among the great teams mentioned above is great head coaches. It's not facilities. It's not fan bases. It's not tradition and history built in the '40s, '50s, '60s and '70s. It's not money spent on the program. It's great head coaches. If you want to be consistently strong in college baseball, you MUST have a great head coach. I'm not saying they won't have an occasional hiccup along the way...but if you want long-term, high level success, a great head coach is essential.

Guys like Augie Garrido, Wayne Graham, George Horton, etc. could play in a cow pasture and still put forth consistently great teams.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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DWren
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9:27a, 5/27/15
Rice has been to Omaha 7 times since 1997.
They have won a national title.

I don't care if they won at home or on road you're not gonna convince many people that Rice has made a name for themselves by facing weak non conference competition.

They have won a few regionals on the road .. Won a regional at LSU few years back , won a regional at Oregon 2 years ago. Yes much of their regional/ super regional success is at home but also look at teams in their regional.. More often their regional is one of the toughest in the country.

As far as TCU. They have found a way to make it to Omaha twice in last 5 years. Weather in your opinion is was because of Purke and a favorable draw they still got it done.
Funny how we have historically underachieved in the postseason but when our in state counterparts have success it's by default.
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Fightin Ag491
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In reply to W • 2:36p, 5/27/15
quote:
2 thoughts right off the bat...

- Florida State is the most underachieving team of the past 17 years. In part because racking up wins in their bandbox stadium against top 20-ish teams doesn't translate to winning in Omaha vs. top 10 teams.

- Rice and Fullerton (and now TCU) show the advantage of being a very good-to-great team in a mediocre conference. It's a fantastic formula for getting national seeds and hosting regionals
W, nice posts from you in this thread, especially about Florida State.

While I don't have any disdain for the school for any reason, I do remember that with FSU's AD leading the committee throughout the early to mid 2000s, not only did they consistently get national seeds, but the No. 1 overall seed! And this was back when the ACC was not that strong considering the fact that Virginia was powerful yet and Miami might have still been in the Big East. I think only Georgia Tech was the only one consistently decent.

Not only that, FSU got the No.1 overall in 2002 and 2003 and went 0-4 in Supers if I'm not mistaken. Rice, CSF (who didn't even have that great of a record this year) and Houston definitely follow the formula of split or just win some of the Tuesday matchups, and then sweep most of the weekend series against the likes of Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic.
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Luke The Drifter
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In reply to Fightin Ag491 • 3:48p, 5/27/15
AG
quote:
And this was back when the ACC was not that strong considering the fact that Virginia was powerful yet and Miami might have still been in the
Big East. I think only Georgia Tech was the only one consistently
decent.

Clemson was pretty salty back then and North Carolina was no slouch. I agree that the ACC wasn't as strong in those days as the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 10 (all before conference realignment), but Florida State definitely had some competition in conference play.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
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