Monday Morning Polls - 3/30/15

16,897 Views | 100 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by JeffHamilton82
Luke The Drifter
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AG

We're just past the halfway point of the season. Too early to do regional projections?


But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
TempleAg97
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AG
Win the midweek game and two of three at #16 RPI Kentucky and I'm guessing we'll be #1 RPI, the one where it counts.
nereus
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quote:
but they are not just some exercise done by writers for the fun of it either


Correct. They are done by writers to get page views.
Luke The Drifter
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Warren Nolan's Top 8 national seeds (using today's RPI only...not noting any 'intangibles' and such)

1. Dallas Baptist
2. Miami, Fla.
3. Florida State
4. Texas A&M
5. TCU
6. UCLA
7. Florida Atlantic
8. Arizona State


And for grins, the other 8 host spots could be...

9. Oklahoma State
10. Florida
11. Iowa
12. Vanderbilt
13. Central Florida
14. Missouri State
15. Bradley
16. Alabama


I could live with that. What say we end the regular season right now and start the playoffs? Who's with me???


But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Farmer1906
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quote:
It is insane to me that Vandy doesn't have to play you OR LSU this year.

Vandy and Florida avoid LSU and A&M just like A&M and LSU avoid Vandy and Florida.

Poor USCe gets Vandy, UF, LSU, and A&M.
Mr.Ackar07
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quote:
quote:

Vandy and Florida avoid LSU and A&M just like A&M and LSU avoid Vandy and Florida.

Unless they meet in the SEC Tournament...
twk
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quote:
I know what keeps getting repeated week after week - but you still cannot convince me that the polls are "meaningless". They don't have the weight that football does by any stretch, but they are not just some exercise done by writers for the fun of it either. I"m sure the truth, even if the NCAA claims that the polls are not a metric they use to make selections, is somewhere in the middle.
And, this is why we keep repeating that polls are worthless--so that folks who truly just don't know how the process works aren't misled by pages of analysis on the polls into thinking that it matters. Not talking about you--you simply won't be convinced by the facts, somewhat like conspiracy theorists. I'm talking about the casual fans who just don't follow college baseball and don't know how the selection process works.

When the committee meets, they will actually have a copy of the official RPI and something like Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty report in front of them. They won't have copies of the polls provided.
Farmer1906
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quote:
quote:
I know what keeps getting repeated week after week - but you still cannot convince me that the polls are "meaningless". They don't have the weight that football does by any stretch, but they are not just some exercise done by writers for the fun of it either. I"m sure the truth, even if the NCAA claims that the polls are not a metric they use to make selections, is somewhere in the middle.
And, this is why we keep repeating that polls are worthless--so that folks who truly just don't know how the process works aren't misled by pages of analysis on the polls into thinking that it matters. Not talking about you--you simply won't be convinced by the facts, somewhat like conspiracy theorists. I'm talking about the casual fans who just don't follow college baseball and don't know how the selection process works.

When the committee meets, they will actually have a copy of the official RPI and something like Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty report in front of them. They won't have copies of the polls provided.

It sounds like he realizes that, but if all year long the committee sees a #1 by LSU and #5 by A&M, more ofthen than not bias will exist that LSU is better than A&M even if they have very similar resumes.
twk
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AG
quote:
quote:
quote:
I know what keeps getting repeated week after week - but you still cannot convince me that the polls are "meaningless". They don't have the weight that football does by any stretch, but they are not just some exercise done by writers for the fun of it either. I"m sure the truth, even if the NCAA claims that the polls are not a metric they use to make selections, is somewhere in the middle.
And, this is why we keep repeating that polls are worthless--so that folks who truly just don't know how the process works aren't misled by pages of analysis on the polls into thinking that it matters. Not talking about you--you simply won't be convinced by the facts, somewhat like conspiracy theorists. I'm talking about the casual fans who just don't follow college baseball and don't know how the selection process works.

When the committee meets, they will actually have a copy of the official RPI and something like Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty report in front of them. They won't have copies of the polls provided.

It sounds like he realizes that, but if all year long the committee sees a #1 by LSU and #5 by A&M, more ofthen than not bias will exist that LSU is better than A&M even if they have very similar resumes.
It can be interesting to follow polls simply as a reflection of conventional wisdom, but that's less true in baseball than in football or even basketball. Most baseball polls are compiled by a small committee, and even if they have a larger selection group, the lack of real solid national college baseball information is a real handicap. So, you don't get the same conventional wisdom effect that you might in college football or basketball, where everyone is watching the same games and forming opinions more or less using the same data.

You can usually explain deviations from RPI in the seedings more readily by looking at known-RPI bias factors (e.g., the committee is aware that West Coast RPI's are depressed by the overlap in non-conference opponents, and northern teams are going to get affirmative action based upon their perceived handicap) much more than you would by trying to correlate them to polls. In decades of watching college baseball, I just haven't found poll tracking to be worth the time or effort.
W
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one note...Eric Hyman is on the baseball selection committee again
W
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regarding regionals...if A&M is a national seed, then I'd like to see as many regionals in the lone star state as possible. No problem with TCU, DBU, and Rice all hosting. Would prefer a west coast / California team into BBP. Not a fan of the "Texas-stuffed" regional like the Ags had at Reckling last season
Farmer1906
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quote:
regarding regionals...if A&M is a national seed, then I'd like to see as many regionals in the lone star state as possible. No problem with TCU, DBU, and Rice all hosting. Would prefer a west coast / California team into BBP. Not a fan of the "Texas-stuffed" regional like the Ags had at Reckling last season

Maybe the NCAA got it out of their system last year. It was fun until we lost.
schmellba99
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quote:
quote:
quote:
I know what keeps getting repeated week after week - but you still cannot convince me that the polls are "meaningless". They don't have the weight that football does by any stretch, but they are not just some exercise done by writers for the fun of it either. I"m sure the truth, even if the NCAA claims that the polls are not a metric they use to make selections, is somewhere in the middle.
And, this is why we keep repeating that polls are worthless--so that folks who truly just don't know how the process works aren't misled by pages of analysis on the polls into thinking that it matters. Not talking about you--you simply won't be convinced by the facts, somewhat like conspiracy theorists. I'm talking about the casual fans who just don't follow college baseball and don't know how the selection process works.

When the committee meets, they will actually have a copy of the official RPI and something like Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty report in front of them. They won't have copies of the polls provided.

It sounds like he realizes that, but if all year long the committee sees a #1 by LSU and #5 by A&M, more often than not bias will exist that LSU is better than A&M even if they have very similar resumes.

This is what I"m talking about more than anything.

I don't care that the committee does not get copies of the polls - one can make a safe assumption that those on the committee are at least somewhat in tune with the baseball landscape as a whole, and likely have at least casually followed the various polls throughout the season.

Again - I am not arguing that the polls are the end all of selection, much to the dismay of what twk wants to believe about me, only that the polls are not exactly "meaningless". Simple logic should tell you as much, it's really not a hard concept.

For much of the selection criteria I have no doubt that they have little, if any, sway in a decision - one would argue that those on the committee should be well aware enough of the top teams that polls are not required. But for the bubble teams, I simply cannot imagine that Joe Q. Committeeman uses only the information provided by the NCAA in front of him, and absolutely zero information he has gained throughout the entirety of the season (yes, including those "meaningless" polls) to help form the best decision he can make.

But apparently I'm just a conspiracy theorist that cannot be convinced by any facts.
Tottenham88
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Combined top 25.

1. Texas A&M - 122 points
2. Vanderbilt - 121
3. TCU - 114
4. LSU - 108
5. Florida - 106
6. UCLA - 100
7. Louisville - 94
8. Florida State - 85
9. Arizona State - 82
9. Central Florida - 82
11. Southern California - 79
12. Virginia - 60
13. Miami, Florida - 57
14. UC Santa Barbara - 50
15. Oklahoma State - 49
16. Rice - 47
17. South Carolina - 43
18. Dallas Baptist - 38
19. Houston - 34
20. California - 22
20. Nebraska - 22
22. Illinois - 21
23. Texas - 20
24. Arizona - 19
25. Texas Tech - 14

This giving 25 points for a 1st place vote down to 1 point for a 25th place vote.
Counting the 5 polls listed on the NCAA website: NCBWA, D1Baseball, USA Today, Collegiate Baseball, & Baseball America.
twk
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quote:
quote:
regarding regionals...if A&M is a national seed, then I'd like to see as many regionals in the lone star state as possible. No problem with TCU, DBU, and Rice all hosting. Would prefer a west coast / California team into BBP. Not a fan of the "Texas-stuffed" regional like the Ags had at Reckling last season

Maybe the NCAA got it out of their system last year. It was fun until we lost.
They will never get it out of their system, if what happens elsewhere is any indication (Florida, South Carolina, West Coast--lots of repeat matches from year to year). Part of it is because of the mandate to minimize travel, which means they have to deviate from their own policy in order to get some variety in the matchups.
W
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that reminds me...most of the college writers felt that the only reason A&M got into the postseason in 2013 was because Hyman was on the committee. One of those intangibles came into play for the maroon-n-white. It overcame a dreadful 10-21 record vs. the top 50
Farmer1906
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quote:
that reminds me...most of the college writers felt that the only reason A&M got into the postseason in 2013 was because Hyman was on the committee. One of those intangibles came into play for the maroon-n-white. It overcame a dreadful 10-21 record vs. the top 50

And to think we're almost at 10 wins vs the top 50 and we're barely half way through.
twk
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quote:
For much of the selection criteria I have no doubt that they have little, if any, sway in a decision - one would argue that those on the committee should be well aware enough of the top teams that polls are not required. But for the bubble teams, I simply cannot imagine that Joe Q. Committeeman uses only the information provided by the NCAA in front of him, and absolutely zero information he has gained throughout the entirety of the season (yes, including those "meaningless" polls) to help form the best decision he can make.
Bubble teams, in most cases, aren't in the top 25, so polls are truly irrelevant to that.

The information the NCAA puts in front of the committee members is pretty extensive. They have plenty of points to talk about when they get to discussing the individual teams.

One other thing to keep in mind is that, unlike basketball, where they try to produce a pretty true S curve bracket, in baseball, once you get past the top 8, the next 8 are put into a group that is treated as equal, and then the next 16 are put into a group treated as equal, and so on. There isn't as much detailed analysis in putting together the baseball bracket.
Signel
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RPI RPI RPI...
hunter2012
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quote:
RPI RPI RPI...


RPI Rankings

We're 4...
Tberger
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Signel
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So what? Our SOS is 78th..

It all evens out over time.
Foxo
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quote:
quote:
I really like Kendall's material, but he does come across as a Vandy homer a lot of the time.
I think he tries to be an anti-homer for A&M. Since he went here, I feel like he doesn't want to give us full credit so that way people don't accuse him of being biased
Almost to the point of over doing it.
Thats Not My Name
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txagssweetie2014
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First number listed is the human poll average, second number listed is computer poll average

Texas A&M 2.2- 2.3
Vandy 2.2 - 7.5
TCU 2.8 - 2.4
LSU 4.0 - 12.5
FL 4.5 - 7.7
UCLA 6.0 - 3.4
Lville 7.2 - 20.1
FSU 8.8 - 11.8
AZ St 9.5 - 14.4
UCF 10-0 - 18.1
USC 11.2 - 16.5
VA 13.5 - 42.5
Miami 16.8 - 9.7
UCSB 15.5 - 16.5
S.Carolina 17.0 - 35.5
OKSt 17.8 - 5.9
D.Baptist 18.5 - 2.3
Houston 19.2 - 37.5
Rice 19.0 - 28.6
Illinois 21.5 - 21.7
Nebraska 21.7 - 15.9
Cal 22.3 - 15.8
Arizona 22.5 - 29.3
Texas 22.5 - 29.5
Oregon St 23.5 - 29.8
FAU Unranked - 9.2
MO State Unranked - 10.3
San Diego St Unranked - 15.2

Humans like LSU, Louisville, Rice and really like Virginia, South Carolina and Houston

Computers like Dallas Baptist, Oklahoma St, Florida Atlantic, Missouri St and San Diego St
The Debt
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swimmerbabe11
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quote:
one note...Eric Hyman is on the baseball selection committee again

Where do you find this list?
txaggie_2011
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quote:
quote:
one note...Eric Hyman is on the baseball selection committee again

Where do you find this list?
At the February meeting of Athletics Ambassadors he mentioned this is his last year. Looks like the term officially ends in September.

Division I Baseball Committee
Enviroag02
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looking at the table above, it is interesting that 7th and 8th have more of a consensus than No. 1.
Tripacer
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Massey

We are first in the final Massey composite of 14 polls/rankings.
W
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somebody please get the horns out of the top 25
JeffHamilton82
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quote:
Humans like LSU, Louisville, Rice and really like Virginia, South Carolina and Houston

Computers like Dallas Baptist, Oklahoma St, Florida Atlantic, Missouri St and San Diego St

Looks like the computers did a better job last week then the humans did. But the humans did do well with LSU last week. And the computers had a miss with SD State.
 
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