Scouting Missouri

2,055 Views | 16 Replies | Last: 9 yr ago by W
Detective Jake Peralta
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AG
Missouri Tigers (19-7, 5-1) vs #3 Fightin' Texas Aggies (25-1, 5-1)

Friday, March 27, 2015 at 6:30 PM
Saturday March 28, 2015 at 1:00 PM
Sunday March 29, 2015 at 1:00 PM
Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park, College Station, Texas

TV Info:
Friday: SEC Network+ (via Watch ESPN, online only)
Saturday: SEC Network (actually on TV!)
Sunday: SEC Network+ (via Watch ESPN, online only)

A&M leads the all time series 47-32
Last Meeting: 3-0 series sweep by the Ags in 2013 in College Station (2-1, 6-5, 4-1)

Head Coach: Tim Jamieson (21st season, 661-514-2 at Mizzou)
2014 Record: 20-33 (6-24) 7th in the SEC East

2015 Results (19-7 overall)
  • Series wins: #290 Iona (4-0, neutral), 3-1 at Kleberg Bank College Classic (Corpus) defeating#191 Sam Houston, #194 TAMU Corpus Christi and #198 Purdue and losing to #194 TAMU Corpus Christi, #272 Illinois-Chicago (3-0, neutral), @ #116 Georgia (3-0), #42 South Carolina (2-1)
  • Series Losses: #48 Milwaukee (0-3)
  • Midweek Wins: Non-D1 Truman State (10-2), #107 SIUE (9-4), #121 Air Force (6-0), #166 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-3)
  • Midweek Losses: #121 Air Force (2-4), #166 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (3-8)

Pitching Matchups:
Friday: Grayson Long (Jr. RHP, 5-0, 2.08) vs Reggie McClain (Jr. RHP, 4-1, 1.74)
Saturday: Kyle Simonds (Jr. RHP, 2-0, 0.00) vs Tanner Houck (Fr. RHP, 3-1, 3.02)
Sunday: Matt Kent (Jr. LHP, 5-0, 3.20) vs Peter Fairbanks (Jr. RHP, 2-2, 1.82)

Stat Comparison:
  • Team Batting Avg: MIZZOU: .250 (T-223rd) A&M: .311 (T-9th)
  • Team ERA: MIZZOU: 2.28 (9th) A&M: 1.76 (1st)
  • Home Runs: MIZZOU: 11 (T-116th) A&M: 22 (T-15th)
  • Stolen Bases: MIZZOU: 42 (T-15th) A&M: 17 (T-208th)
  • Fielding Pct.: MIZZOU: .979 (13th) A&M: .967 (108th)
Players to Watch:
  • Jr. RHP Reggie McClain (4-1, 1.74)
    • McClain has emerged as one of the conference's best, which, like the Tigers' season as a whole, has been a huge surprise. The JUCO transfer has certainly burst onto the scene in his debut season in the SEC. McClain has won or shared SEC Pitcher of the Week honors 3 times already this season, including sharing last week with Grayson Long. He'll go primarily with a good sinking fastball at 87-90 mph, and a plus plus changeup to complement it.
  • Jr. RHP Breckin Williams (4-0, 1.26)
    • The Mizzou starting rotation has been stellar, and Williams has been just as good, if not better, at shutting the door on opponents in the late innings. In 11 appearances (over 14 innings) he has given up only 2 runs (both earned) and earned 6 saves.
  • Fr. C/DH Brett Bond (.291/3/11)
    • Another huge surprise for the Tigers in the form of a newcomer. Bond leads the team in average and homeruns, and usually bats around the middle of the order. does really well to get on base and cause trouble, but like most freshmen, he can struggle with his strikeouts, especially against the better pitchers he's faced.
  • Jr. 3B Josh Lester (.289/2/21)
  • .Stepped up for the Tigers in a big way by raising his average over 50 points so far compared to last year. Bats in the 3 or 4 hole most nights, and is the main source of RBI for the Mizzou offense, leading the team in that category by a wide margin. .
Others to watch:
  • So. SS Ryan Howard
  • So, OF Jake Ring
  • Sr. 2B Brett Peel
  • Jr. RHP Peter Fairbanks
  • Fr. RHP Tanner Houck
  • Jr. LHP Austin Tribby

Overall Breakdown:

Missouri is an interesting animal in that they remind me a lot of some of A&M's recent teams under Childress and Sawyers. The Tigers have great pitching, but struggle to piece hits together to create big innings, leading to many close one run games, including seven of their wins so far.. Another eerie similarity is the fact that the Tigers will run. And run. And run. And run some more. They have already swiped 42 bags this season through 26 games (that's on pace of over 90 in the regular season if you're keeping score at home), led by Peel with 15. The glaring difference from those A&M teams is the lack of one or two truly dangerous hitters. No matter how bad some of those Aggie offenses seemed at times, there was always a Brodie Greene or Tyler Naquin waiting to do some damage. The Tigers don't have a single every-day hitter hitting over .300, and that lack of production has really led to some head-scratching results so far like losing to A&M Corpus, UAPB, and getting swept at home by Milwaukee. The fact is the Mizzou offence is just flat out bad. They only bat .250 as a team, with the only stellar pitching they've faced this year coming last weekend at home against South Carolina. Still, the Tigers have obviously found ways to win in spite of an inept offense. There will be some great pitching on display in College Station this weekend, and I for one believe the two best pitchers in the SEC so far this season will be going toe to toe on Friday night. The key for the Aggies will be pitching up to their potential, and being patient, like they have been all year, against the vaunted Tiger staff.

Prediction:

A&M will have a huge offensive advantage this weekend, plain and simple. This, however, will also be the best staff the Aggie offense has faced so far this year, so it'll be interesting to see how they respond. Friday night is setting up to be a classic between two All American candidates on the mound, and I personally can't wait. Mizzou's start is probably the only one that was more surprising than the Ags', and they'll be coming in looking to prove last weekend's series win against South Carolina wasn't a fluke. The key will be the Friday night game, as I think that's Missouri's best chance to steal a game on the road. If the Aggies can win that one, I think the offense will carry to a sweep. Thanks and Gig 'Em, and see you at Olsen!
Sandman98
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quote:
Head Coach: Tim Jamieson (21st season, 661-514-2 at Mizzou)
2014 Record: 20-33 (6-24) 7th in the SEC East


Can you imagine Texags if that was our head coach's record ever, let alone in his 20th season? We have people who want RC fired today.
West Texan
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Outside of their closer, how is the rest of the mizzou bullpen? As usual, I feel like if we can chase their staters from the game and get into their pen earlier than they'd like that it would be a huge advantage for us.
Falcon85
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Thanks for putting the report together.
TempleAg97
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Navasota-I really appreciate these. I've started looking for them each week!

Time for a legit ace Friday night showdown tonight. Can't wait to get this workday over and get to Olsen for the weekend!
Sean98
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2 or 3 runs could truly win some of these games. I can only start the countdown clock on TexAgs imploding when we give away outs by sac bunting in an attempt to score a run or two instead of hoping for the 3 run HR.

Their closer is dirty, Dirty, DIRTY. But with the kind of movement I saw from him last weekend I think he's going to have times when he can't locate too. So let's hope that's what we get from him this weekend if we see him (and let's hope we don't see him at all).
Sean98
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quote:
Navasota-I really appreciate these. I've started looking for them each week!

Oh, and THIS!!
W
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Great analysis. And I agree that if Mizzou is going to win the series, the Tigers have to win Friday night with McClain. Weather conditions (i.e. wind blowing in) are favorable for Missouri on Friday, but shift from the south and heavily favor A&M on Saturday and Sunday. I like Barash behind the plate vs. Mizzou's run game.

The Ags with their deep lineup will be a threat to score every inning; whereas the Tigers (similar to Auburn) are generally only a threat with the top of their order. Also with Mizzou not having any truly outstanding hitters, Childress won't have to play the R-R / L-L matchups too much out of the bullpen. Won't be a big deal that the Ags only have 1 lefty in the pen
TooCold
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S
Thank you for putting this together. There is not a preview on the premium board which is incredibly disappointing.

This Missouri team scares me a little bit. They will put some pressure on our defense and given our fielding issues this season, I could see them putting up some cheap runs. If we don't get out of the recent semi-funk on offense, we could be challenged a bit. I think our bats show up in a big way this weekend though.
Detective Jake Peralta
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Thanks, all. As always I love putting these together! Their bullpen definitely has some solid "bridge the gap" guys as well, and most of them never see any action until Saturdays. If we can get into that portion of the pen tonight we'll be in great shape.

I agree with W in that Barash should play as much as possible this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday. He has the ability to slow down their run game, and we'll definitely need that this weekend.
West Texan
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quote:
Thank you for putting this together. There is not a preview on the premium board which is incredibly disappointing.

This Missouri team scares me a little bit. They will put some pressure on our defense and given our fielding issues this season, I could see them putting up some cheap runs. If we don't get out of the recent semi-funk on offense, we could be challenged a bit. I think our bats show up in a big way this weekend though.


Mizzou has to put the ball in play and get on base to put pressure on our D; not exactly something they're great at. Plus, our pitchers don't walk a ton of guys.
West Texan
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quote:
Thanks, all. As always I love putting these together! Their bullpen definitely has some solid "bridge the gap" guys as well, and most of them never see any action until Saturdays. If we can get into that portion of the pen tonight we'll be in great shape.

I agree with W in that Barash should play as much as possible this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday. He has the ability to slow down their run game, and we'll definitely need that this weekend.


We gotta have good at bats and drive up pitch counts. I don't want us to lose our aggressiveness at the plate and take good pitches, but it's certainly not a time that we want to go chasing balls outside the zone.
Detective Jake Peralta
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Agree completely. We've been great at finding that balance between aggressiveness and working pitch counts all year.
W
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Fun game tonight. The scouting report on Mizzou was spot on. In looked like McClain was headed for a complete game the way he was dealing in the first 3 innings with an economy of pitches; but the Ags' superior batting order (especially the bottom half) wore him down.

Huge advantage for A&M now in the series
CapCityAg89
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Our power numbers have definitely dipped against better pitching (makes sense) along with average to a degree, but what hasn't really changed is that consistent 1 to 9 (especially 1 - 7) pressure we put on an opponents pitching. While Grayson gave up 2x his ERA (based on the flukey 6th), McClain gave up FOUR times his - all starting with the second time through the lineup. I don't know how flashy our offense will look at the end of the year, but it is very, very good.

That aside - how mad would you be at SawDog if we had 5 hits with no outs in an inning and only scored 3?
W
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I hope that's it for Mizzou's starting pitching. They really throw strikes and limit the walks
Detective Jake Peralta
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Peter Fairbanks is no pushover, and seems to fit that mold as well, unfortunately.
W
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Missouri finally ran out of pitching. Ags overwhelming the Tiger staff in the series finale
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