******* 2015 Baseball RPI Tracker and Opponent's RPI Tracker *******

19,666 Views | 94 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by mid90
W
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AG
Florida is looming as a (national seed) problem for the A&M-LSU series loser. The Gators are in 1st place in the East division with a top 5 RPI and top 10 SoS. The loser of the series in Baton Rouge will fall to 3rd in the national seed pecking order for the conference
Mostly Sunny Disposition
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AG
RPI NEEDS:


Texas A&M

Remaining: 4 home, 10 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 5
ROWP: 0.572

Top 45:

0 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 2 road wins
1 home wins, 1 road wins
2 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

0 home wins, 5 road wins
1 home wins, 4 road wins
2 home wins, 3 road wins
3 home wins, 1 road wins
4 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

0 home wins, 9 road wins
1 home wins, 8 road wins
2 home wins, 6 road wins
3 home wins, 5 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins


Louisiana State

Remaining: 7 home, 7 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 6
ROWP: 0.551

Top 45:

0 home wins, 2 road wins
1 home wins, 1 road wins
2 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 32:

0 home wins, 4 road wins
1 home wins, 3 road wins
2 home wins, 2 road wins
3 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

1 home wins, 6 road wins
2 home wins, 5 road wins
3 home wins, 4 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins
5 home wins, 1 road wins
6 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

4 home wins, 7 road wins
5 home wins, 5 road wins
6 home wins, 4 road wins
7 home wins, 2 road wins


Florida

Remaining: 7 home, 6 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 4
ROWP: 0.582

Top 45:

No more wins needed.

Top 32:

0 home wins, 1 road wins
1 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 16:

0 home wins, 5 road wins
1 home wins, 3 road wins
2 home wins, 2 road wins
3 home wins, 1 road wins
4 home wins, 0 road wins

Top 8:

2 home wins, 6 road wins
3 home wins, 5 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins
5 home wins, 2 road wins
6 home wins, 1 road wins
7 home wins, 0 road wins




Texas

Remaining: 5 home, 6 road, 0 neutral
Current RPI: 87
ROWP: 0.537

Top 45:

5 home wins, 6 road wins

Top 32:

No way to reach the threshold.

Top 16:

No way to reach the threshold.

Top 8:

No way to reach the threshold.
CapCityAg89
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AG
Despite what that says, I really like this board generally and the ********s from the football board who roast the basketball board every year would make this thing absolutely unreadable if we went .500.
W
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hopefully this weekend is finally going to fix the Ags' SoS (and LSU's). Both teams are sitting in the mid-60's as of this morning. It is good to see that TCU's SoS has now fallen into the 80's
Mr.Ackar07
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quote:
Texas A&M

Top 8:

0 home wins, 9 road wins
1 home wins, 8 road wins
2 home wins, 6 road wins
3 home wins, 5 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins
I thought road wins always weighed more heavily. Why would we need 9 road wins to finish in the Top 8, but only 7 wins if 4 are home wins to also finish in the Top 8?
jt16
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quote:
quote:
Texas A&M

Top 8:

0 home wins, 9 road wins
1 home wins, 8 road wins
2 home wins, 6 road wins
3 home wins, 5 road wins
4 home wins, 3 road wins
I thought road wins always weighed more heavily. Why would we need 9 road wins to finish in the Top 8, but only 7 wins if 4 are home wins to also finish in the Top 8?
Doesn't make sense to me either, especially considering who we play on the road. Road wins are going to be tough from this point on.
R-Dog
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Because home losses hurt as much as road wins help. If we lost all 4 home games remaining, we would need 9 road wins to overcome that. By winning 3 out of the last 4 home games, you only have 1 loss that hurts and therefore only need to go 5-5 on the road to overcome that 1 home loss.
Emilio Fantastico
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I think you may have answered your own question. If we have tougher road games than home games remaining, we would get severely punished for losing at home and greatly rewarded for what road wins we get.

Based on the numbers, I'd say the penalty for losing to easier teams at home is greater than the reward of winning road games against tougher competition.
Mr.Ackar07
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That makes too much sense. Didn't think about the deductions for losses.
jt16
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quote:
Because home losses hurt as much as road wins help. If we lost all 4 home games remaining, we would need 9 road wins to overcome that. By winning 3 out of the last 4 home games, you only have 1 loss that hurts and therefore only need to go 5-5 on the road to overcome that 1 home loss.
Makes sense that home losses are more punitive. I don't think we get blanked at home anyway. Here's to hoping we take 2 of 3 from LSU and make this thing much easier.
Basketball and Chain
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Even with losing the series, according to warren Nolan, we still are #5 in the rPI. More importantly, our SOS jumped to #39 with remaining series with ole miss (29), Tennessee (90) and South Carolina (66).
W
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yes, finally the Ags' SoS is low enough (around #40) that it should be a relative non-factor for national seeding purposes. On the contrary, TCU's SoS has ballooned to the mid-80's. That could be a problem for the Frogs.

----
at this moment Warren Nolan's RPI top 10 has 3 teams from Texas, 3 teams from Florida, 3 teams from California, and LSU
TXAggie2011
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Texas A&M is 4th in the April 27 official NCAA RPI.

1) UCLA
2) Dallas Baptist
3) Miami (FL)
4) Texas A&M
5) LSU
6) Florida State
7) TCU
8) Florida
9) Missouri State
10) Southern California
TXAggie2011
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The front page is updated as of April 27.

TXAggie2011
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So, life is a little more intersting as far as national seeds and possible regional hosts and pairings...

Dallas Baptist (2), Texas A&M (4), and TCU (7) are all obviously in the hunt to host a regional and also earn a national seed

There is a substantial lack of regional teams to send to Dallas, Fort Worth, and College Station.

Oklahoma State (13), Houston (26), and Louisiana-Lafayette are the only top 32 teams in states which border Texas.

You could go 3 and 3, but you've got LSU which, with 10,000+ seats, prime to host a regional. Louisiana-Lafeyette is an obvious choice to drive about 40 miles down I-10 as a 2 or 3 seed in that regional. Tulane, at 45, also makes an obvious choice for the Baton Rouge regional as does Southeastern Louisana at 40.

That would leave OSU (13) and Houston (26), with Oklahoma State trying to push for a regional or at least a 1-seed somewhere in its own right. Arkansas (48) and Oral Roberts (50) give the NCAA committee two choices for a 3 seed in Stillwater.

There's an obvious problem- not enough good teams in the region.

Rice is at 41, making a Texas A&M, Houston, Rice, 4 seed regional a real possibility, but DBU and TCU, in particular, have to be nervous about getting passed over as hosts.
twk
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I could see the committee sending UH and Rice to College Station as our 2 and 3 seeds, but pairing TCU (as a national seed) with DBU (who I think will get passed over for a national seed despite their high RPI), while A&M gets a little more favorable pairing (perhaps with the odd team out from the 3 likely California regionals).
threeanout
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AG
Didn't DBU get shipped to the Fort Worth regional last year? I agree that DBU is the odd host out, but I think they could possibly get sent to College Station. Would be a rough draw for the Ags from a ranking perspective.
Farmer1906
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AG
Unless something changes DBU is a lock to host.
twk
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quote:
Didn't DBU get shipped to the Fort Worth regional last year? I agree that DBU is the odd host out, but I think they could possibly get sent to College Station. Would be a rough draw for the Ags from a ranking perspective.
I'm not talking about DBU going on the road for a regional--I'm talking about them hosting, but not as a national seed, and being paired with the winner of the TCU regional. I think it's highly unlikely that DBU gets anywhere near the seed that their RPI suggests. Maybe they could snag the 8th national seed, but I think it's more likely that they end up in the unseeded 9-16 bunch that will host the regional, but have to travel for the super unless there is an upset in the other regional that they are paired with.
threeanout
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Don't know what I was thinking.....mental lapse. Did the committee force any of the 9-16 seeds last year to travel as a one seed in that bracket?
twk
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quote:
Don't know what I was thinking.....mental lapse. Did the committee force any of the 9-16 seeds last year to travel as a one seed in that bracket?
I don't think so. It's a rarity.
TXAggie2011
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AG
We're back up to 4th after the first game at Tennessee.

Warren Nolan strength of schedule is 46th.
TXAggie2011
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On the national seed front, we can start to group the candidates (over-simplistically)

#1 DBU with SoS of 16.
#2 UCLA with SoS of 4.
#3 Miami with SoS of 2
#6 Florida State with SoS of 7

Seem pretty close to having it locked up. DBU has to close out strong like they have played all year, but they should feel alright about themselves.

#4 Texas A&M with SoS of 46.
#5 LSU with SoS of 52

In good shape, but there is time and opportunity to mess it up. LSU, with 15 top 50 wins compared to A&M's 11, has to feel pretty good right now.

#7 TCU with SoS of 81.
#8 Missouri State with SoS of 71.

They're worried one of the teams below is going to take their spot. Neither team has a difficult run-in at all, except Missouri State closes the regular season with a series vs #16 Bradley that they have to win, if not sweep.

#9 Florida with SoS of 19
#11 Oklahoma State with SoS of 14.

Both are looking to steal a national seed. Florida has a difficult schedule with 3 at #15 Vanderbilt and 3 vs #21 Auburn, plus a midweek with #29 Florida Atlantic. Oklahoma State doesn't have the same opportunity, but a midweek win at #1 Dallas Baptist would help them. OSU and TCU are probably both hoping to see and beat each other at the Big 12 tournament.

#13 USC with SoS of 27.

They'll probably need Florida and/or Oklahoma State to falter. Its hard to find any reason why the selection committee would skip Florida, and maybe even Oklahoma State for Southern Cal right now. USC doesn't have an overly difficult run-in, but they close with 3 at #54 Cal and 3 vs #24 Arizona State. They're looking for sweeps.

#10 Florida Atlantic with SoS of 39
#12 Ohio State with SoS of 56.

FAU has a decently tough schedule to finish up, with 3 vs #32 Rice and a game at #3 Miami, but the schedule otherwise just isn't totally there for them to feel any sort of comfortable. They need lots of wins. That holds for Ohio State, too. OSU lost to 20 Illinois last night, but have two more chances. They also have 3 vs. #35 Maryland.
twk
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Louisville and Illinois may get elevated to national seeds despite not having the requisite RPI. I could easily see TCU being left out, but being paired with DBU, as a way to sort of hedge a little on DBU and the Mo Valley being worthy of a national seed (no way they get two--it's either DBU or Mo State, but not both). TCU would have travel for the super, but only across town.
Maroon Dawn
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Man I want the Arkansas series back from the freaking weather!

That series is likely going to be what cost us the SEC regular season title
mid90
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quote:
Man I want the Arkansas series back from the freaking weather!

That series is likely going to be what cost us the SEC regular season title
Seriously.

One freaking day of uninspired play cost us 2 losses.
 
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