I went in at $1.61 just basically as a gamble. When its as low as it is right now worst case I lose my $1.61 and I can live with that but right now its up pretty good from that low. My personal feeling is that with Carl Icahn likely knows more than I do, but the debt is scaring a lot of people off. It is absolutely a spin of the roulette wheel but I think that is most of the sector right now. This is a swing for the fences
CHK energy - what do you think?
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54 Replies |
Last: 7 yr ago by howdydamnit04
quote:pay close attention to this. unless you are going for very short positions. CHK is most likely heading for ch. 11. the chances of a buyout with their debt load is slim to none.
Investors shouldn't be misled by sharp one-day rallies in devastated stocks. Strong rebounds are a part of a bear market, and they are great traps. The Company lacks options to survive this storm, and unless someone is very sure that the energy markets will improve from here on, it would be wise to not jump right on the bullish bandwagon.
Talks of a buyout force the investors to think in terms other than practical as they conjure up their own ideas of doubling down on dips even as their losses increase and their bank accounts get dried up. Hope is not a friend in this case!
what people are missing because we're all so focused on commodity prices is that the economy is seeing the rejection of massive leverage finally. it's been an elephant in the room getting ignored for years now. we can only borrow future earnings for so long.
Obviously when the price of your product collapses and you can't service your debt load..... That's no indication that the broader market is rejecting leverage. Small to mid sized E&Ps will always have significant debt.
I agree with Clay. Maybe E&P leverage will be constrained for some time, but let's not extrapolate too far.
quote:I've heard these rumors as well. Have to wonder if the bondholders see right through this strategy.
There are rumors that they're using bankruptcy fears to buyback their own debt at a fraction of the cost.
And up 20% on the morning....
I'd say jump back out when you get the chance. A chapter 11 for CHK is around the corner, in my opinion. They aren't looking good.
quote:
I'd say jump back out when you get the chance. A chapter 11 for CHK is around the corner, in my opinion. They aren't looking good.
CHK is going bankrupt.. avoid
Sorry man
Maybe you should margin your shares to buy more shares.
It has a $1.6 billion market cap and only $10.3 billion in debt (not including the $3 billion in preferred shares) with $825 million in cash and a cash flow of -$3.28 billion the last 12 months.
What can go wrong?
It has a $1.6 billion market cap and only $10.3 billion in debt (not including the $3 billion in preferred shares) with $825 million in cash and a cash flow of -$3.28 billion the last 12 months.
What can go wrong?
quote:this is one of their big problems. they cannot get cash flow positive.
Maybe you should margin your shares to buy more shares.
It has a $1.6 billion market cap and only $10.3 billion in debt (not including the $3 billion in preferred shares) with $825 million in cash and a cash flow of -$3.28 billion the last 12 months.
What can go wrong?
quote:Part of the problem is the industry has been waiting for gas prices to rise since 08/09 and they have done nothing but continue to fall.
Nice black and white analysis. I guess if you assume natural gas prices never rise again, it checks out.
Put gas prices to the side for a minute...
Where would you rate Chesapeake versus their peers? Near the bottom. You might like the O&G business to make positive gains in the future. Not sure why you'd bet on Chesapeake. It's a turd.
Where would you rate Chesapeake versus their peers? Near the bottom. You might like the O&G business to make positive gains in the future. Not sure why you'd bet on Chesapeake. It's a turd.
quote:
Nice black and white analysis. I guess if you assume natural gas prices never rise again, it checks out.
For them to see natural gas to increase enough to make them profitable before they run out of cash and sell all of their good assets is a production decrease. You will probably start to see the production decrease you are waiting for...once CHK goes bankrupt.
But what do I know... good luck to you and your investment, I hope you continue to do well with it.
Common equity owners need to realize there is $3.3B of Preferred Equity ahead of them.
Currently up another 20% today..... If you bought the day this thread was posted you are just shy of doubling your investment...
Wow on other news... Looks like Aubrey McClendon has died in a car accident today.... Just after indictment
quote:yep, likely suicide
Wow on other news... Looks like Aubrey McClendon has died in a car accident today.... Just after indictment
I'm still holding, I bought additional shares at the $1.50 area to try and hedge my bets from a previous purchase several months back. If it gets to $4.40 I'm even again. Going to be hard to not sell if it happens
Yeah my blind gamble is feeling pretty nice, I jumped in SDRL the same day and between those two I am about to quit my job..... Then again I know me, I will just hold them back to the bottom
Still climbing.....I can't make myself sell it and hope it drops, then buy again
I got out at 4.31
Son of a
I considered bailing but still running with CHK and SDRL
I've got Sdrl still, bought it to flip but so far hasn't been worth it.
Kicking myself on CHK, but with the low that natural gas hit yesterday, I bailed.
Kicking myself on CHK, but with the low that natural gas hit yesterday, I bailed.
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