FB & TWTR

4,632 Views | 22 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by ChrisHansen
oldarmy1
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AG
So TWTR stock is trading near it's low since being released. In simple terms the reason why large investors aren't purchasing the stock is because they have no firm or long-term profit strategy. However, do you recall FB facing similar issues after it's launch? Monetization strategies are the difference between FB trading at $100 and TWTR trading at $15.

Here is one critical point. The most difficult part of a monetizing challenge is pure numbers. Twitter has the most difficult component, just as FB did - massive appeal/utilization. Therefore the "gamble" in investing in TWTR at lows is nearly 100% based on the potential that the leadership does what FB leadership managed to do - execute a path to monetize it's size via innovative ideas.

I only bought a small position in TWTR recently on the market reversal day (under $16). Right now I consider investing in the stock speculative with high risk/high reward potential. I'll certainly be looking at variables and decide whether to take a sizeable position like I did on FB below $20. I posted a similar thought on Websider forum (before fully discovering TexAgs B&I forum) when buying loads of FB under $20 after it's post-IPO drop from $40. I'm not to that point on Twitter but ignoring the mass volume of subscribers as the gasoline waiting for the engine to develop would be foolish.



oldarmy1
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AG
I see that I DID later (than I had on Websider board) post FB on this forum after it clearly had met all my criteria to the point of straight out calling it a short and long term buy. Funny reading through some of the skepticism. I endorse skepticism. Any good investor should take a critical view of any stock they invest or trade.

P.S. Pay attention to the one guy who replied that a teen would start a Twitter account before a FB account. Indeed!

http://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2337096/replies
Pignorant
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I think a teen right now would create an Instagram account before Twitter or facebook.
oldarmy1
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AG
quote:
I think a teen right now would create an Instagram account before Twitter or facebook.
ISWYDT
CT-11
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I think a teen right now would create a Snapchat before Instagram, Twitter, or Facebook.
Ag13
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AG
Twitter is my primary form of reading the news - sports, business, politics, everything that I like. I use it very little for actual social capabilities. I think it's the future of news. Not sure how they will make a lot of money off of it but I don't think the user base will ever go away.
Ulrich
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I think anything we think a teen would create first is likely to be wrong.
Bonfire1996
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AG
Since you are comparing it to facebook, I seem to remember the argument about facebook was when they would get their act together to monetize the content abilities. As in, there was never an argument about whether or not facebook could monetize a lot of its content. The consensus was they just needed to unleash the hounds, and facebook corporate was reluctant to do so at that point. And then they did.

I still am seeing significant opposition to Twitter having the same capabilities. Mark Cuban has been consistent in his criticism of twitter versus facebook. He has never questioned facebook's ability to generate revenue. But he has consistently questioned twitter's ability to do the same, and I find it hard to argue with him.

Just my two cents.
FrontPorchAg
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Twitter needs to get their **** together on the sponsorship and billing side of things. Our company has tried to advertise on twitter a few times and it was cumbersome, overpriced and ineffective compared to facebook.
Bayou City
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on a $100 Ad Campaign:

TWTR conversion rate <1%
FB conversion rate ~5.5%

That's the difference in valuations.
SlackerAg
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AG
quote:
on a $100 Ad Campaign:

TWTR conversion rate <1%
FB conversion rate ~5.5%

That's the difference in valuations.
What could be the difference is, although both have smartphone apps with smaller space for advertising, FB's larger desktop webpage does.
Bayou City
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Nope, that's standardized for desktop vs. mobile. If you want to compare desktop to desktop, FB is over 10% and TWTR is still <1%. TWTR advertising is just bad.
oldarmy1
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AG
Sounds like you guys could be advisers for Twitter. Not joking. I have no time but made a boat load back in the day providing "thought leadership". Brain storm some potential solutions, conceptualize and seek existing solutions or cost/reality to deliver.

Small example in the 1983 was when plus 4 zip code was implemented. I went to the largest private companies and pitched them that if they sent their mail through me and I could save them 6-8 cents per mailing would they split with me. Most said "of course!"

I signed 3 year contracts and it was literally as easy as having low wage sorters (eventually automated) to capture the lower pricing. Once they figured out the rules for themselves 6 of them offered a buyout of the contract and the rest kept rolling to contract term, before implementing it themselves.

Perhaps we should have a TexAgs Business Solutions forum.
Dan Scott
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AG
FB management = good
TWTR management = dumbass
jh0400
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AG
Twitter has created a great platform for aggregating and disseminating information, but I don't see how this ever monetizes. The best way to monetize the model would be to charge content creators on click through, but the downside is that you turn the content creators into a middle man of sorts. They are paying Twitter for click through to their pages and then hoping that the readers that land on their pages from Twitter click through to the other advertisers who are on the creators' pages. It's a messy model.
confucius_ag
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Having a CEO of 2 public companies at the same time sounds like a disaster.
oldarmy1
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AG
quote:
Twitter has created a great platform for aggregating and disseminating information, but I don't see how this ever monetizes. The best way to monetize the model would be to charge content creators on click through, but the downside is that you turn the content creators into a middle man of sorts. They are paying Twitter for click through to their pages and then hoping that the readers that land on their pages from Twitter click through to the other advertisers who are on the creators' pages. It's a messy model.
A hosted solution for non-Fortune 500 brands might be a good idea. Also must think globally with even Fortune branding. I could see a lot solutions for contests, sales discounting (i.e. Tweet yourself with the Golden Arches for a free/discounted "X). Based ideas on branding would need to be viral and crossover to other media/social forms. I think if people put serious head time on ideas they could make a bundle as a delivery offer packaged/hosted by Twitter.
jh0400
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AG
That sounds like you're trying to apply the "Check in on Yelp!" model to Twitter.
oldarmy1
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AG
Give me ideas and I'll develop it and cut you in on the company. Don't tell me what a thing is or isn't; tell me what it might/could/should be and I'll make it happen. My world is volume traffic to my call centers. 10M calls/mth. Most of the campaigns are monetizing call traffic. I look at Twitter and know an idea to drive revenue is out there. First one who finds it makes the big $$$.

I don't care if Twitter management is not up to FB standards. If they were then the opportunity to fill a gap might not exist. People think strangely these days. So much complaining and narrow "vision". Let's be the interviewee's on CNBC talking about how the idea was launched on a message board!

Maybe PM if you have what you think is a really good idea...just in case some Stanford losers sniff "Twitter" on their cloud filter software.
Bocephus
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AG
I love Twitter personally. I think it has a great future bc every freaking high schooler in the country uses it to comminicate.
Dan Scott
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AG
$14.89 under $10B market cap.
oldarmy1
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AG
quote:
$14.89 under $10B market cap.
Not seeing a bottom yet for TWTR. One to watch for entry as markets cascade down.
FrontPorchAg
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quote:
FB management = good
TWTR management = dumbass
I would add that outside of a couple guys in the zoo who follow 17y/o boys no one actually reads twitter. People just post and yell at clouds.
ChrisHansen
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AG
Incredibly ignorant of you
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