waiting to catch the falling knife at 58x (586-587 to be exact). Will play long term for this, anyone on board?

My chart shows that price. That's why i waited for to execute. I like the company and their outlook. I would have short sell to 586 if vanguard allows it. But well, wait and see now. My order was just executed.

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My chart shows that price. That's why i waited for to execute. I like the company and their outlook. I would have short sell to 586 if vanguard allows it. But well, wait and see now. My order was just executed.

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Might want to change your chart

Amazon's PE now down to only 816! I'm not on board.

Love AMZN, do business with them all the time. that being said, that multiple is way too high

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Love AMZN, do business with them all the time. that being said, that multiple is way too high

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It's dot com bubble insane. I agree that Amazon has changed the way the world will do business and may very well be the greatest company in the history of capitalism. But the stock price is ridiculous.

As with most young businesses, their value is the potential future value. In AMZN's case, their AWS business is exploding and should be valued at ~$200/share in '17. Tack on another ~$600 or so for the retail business and you've got a stock that could be justified at ~$800 in a year or two at 2.4x Sales.

Still a bit pricey, but you're buying potential that's actually not that far out of whack with mature companies. In this case, I think it's relatively obvious that the potential is off the charts. I'm buying more at these prices.

Agree 100%. Too rich for my blood.

Two things to consider on AMZN when you look at their PE. The first is their noncash comp. Add that back net of the tax benefits, and you've got a profitable company. Second, look at their R&D costs. Those are easy to cut if necessary. AMZN could be a GAAP profitable company tomorrow if they wanted to be. Even though they lose money, they're still FCF positive.

It is nothing like the dot Com bubble. If all they did was sell books online and lost money on each one, and still had a 217x, it would be like the dot Com bubble.

But since like jh mentioned they are fcf positive which is something companies weren't in the dot Com bubble.

Posted when my buy limit hit 585. Took profit at 599. Re bought at 573. Stop loss 535. Take profit 635.

Take profit at 599 and sell half size order at 599. Sell full size order at 621. Sl 640.
Short sell aapl at 100 and 104.5. Sl 108

Amazon goes brick and mortar? What the wut?

There was a rumor spreading around that they were going to buy radio shack and use them for showrooms/local pickup spots/prime now equivalents

Made a lot of sense to me

Why would anyone be buying to hold right now?

Amazon was a game changer in the way we buy crap. My guess is that someone will do it better and make a profit in the next few years. They have the bad luck of being first.

Based on yesterday's release AWS is worth $80-100B on it's own. The total business generates cash, and it is a profitable business ex SBC. I wouldn't let the lack of GAAP earnings influence your opinion on this one too much.

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Amazon was a game changer in the way we buy crap. My guess is that someone will do it better and make a profit in the next few years. They have the bad luck of being first.

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Ummmm....AMZN is profitable.

Profitable, economies-of-scale & innovating. Sounds like a moat to me. Who's gonna knock them off their perch?

It's odd that Warren Buffett bought IBM. Managed computing services are getting creamed by cloud services...AMZN led the way with AWS.

So in addition to changing the way products are sold, they're enabling other business too. The real question is really their valuation.

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Amazon was a game changer in the way we buy crap. My guess is that someone will do it better and make a profit in the next few years. They have the bad luck of being first.

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I wont be buying AMZN, but I am willing to make a substantial bet that you are wrong.

I don't think you could replicate AMZN's business, including acquiring customers, in a few years if someone gave you the $200B that the market says the retail business is worth. If the 300MM active customers stat I saw is correct, you could spend the entire $200B just acquiring a customer base.

I didn't realize that they finally posted a profit as of last year.

It is clear that you don't understand that amazons low/lack of profit is a choice.

If they decided they wanted to be an ecommerce only site and not amazon, they would be very profitable. But they have much bigger dreams and a much longer horizon than than that.

from the end of 2015 highs AMZN has given back 30%, what gives?

Major support just above 400 on AMZN. Falling knife indeed.

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As with most young businesses, their value is the potential future value. In AMZN's case, their AWS business is exploding and should be valued at ~$200/share in '17. Tack on another ~$600 or so for the retail business and you've got a stock that could be justified at ~$800 in a year or two at 2.4x Sales.

Still a bit pricey, but you're buying potential that's actually not that far out of whack with mature companies. In this case, I think it's relatively obvious that the potential is off the charts. I'm buying more at these prices.

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Obliterated earnings today even with increased spend on strategy build outs. Start the march to $800...

In 2006 I bought 29 shares for 995.

Sad face because I invested another $14k or so at the same time in other stocks.

crossed over 700

AMZ is a market leader in eCommerce, Entertainment, Consumer Electronics and now in Enterprise Services w/ AWS ... tough to imagine someone replacing that.

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Major support just above 400 on AMZN. Falling knife indeed.

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real question - I know you are different than most when it comes to trading.

If I followed your advice, I would have missed the low in Feb because it never crossed 450. Some traders would say the rally (March-April) was fake and the real downside is coming. Do you redraw or relook at the new trading pattern and go from there?

Basically, do you really care about the run up run down or is it mostly the support and ceiling?