This is going to require much chaos.
- Teams ranked ahead of us need to lose games, but Alabama cannot be one of those teams. A late-season Tide collapse makes the SEC look weak, even it means we win the conference.
- A one-loss Pac-12 champ might still make it, if it's Washington losing a close game to Utah now but winning the rematch decisively.
- An undefeated WVU will get in if there are only two Power Five undefeated teams besides them, unless they start having shoot-outs to win games.
- A one-loss B1G team gets in if that team is Ohio State. A one-loss B1G champion from the West might also get a nod (Nebraska losing a game in the West but still winning the division, beats the East champion OSU or UM, unless that team has is a two-loss OSU or a one-loss UM going into the championship game).
- If Clemson should lose a regular-season game AND lose the ACC championship game, there will be screaming about Louisville, particularly if Lamar Jackson is still the leading candidate for the Heismann and they finish 11-1.
- Should those things all come to pass, there is the matter of what to do about an undefeated Boise State, if they are still that way.
There's too much going on. Everyone has to lose except us and maybe Alabama, and in most cases, there will need to be multiple losses to ensure the selection. And there will likely be a LOT of behind-the-scenes politicking to make sure that four of the Power Five conferences are represented, barring total and complete chaos. So the probability is quite low.
On the other hand, total and complete chaos could result in NO conference champion making the playoffs. Consider:
- A late-season bloodbath in the SEC, with the East champion beating an undefeated Alabama in the title game. (Let's say it's Tennessee after Florida gets curb-stomped by LSU)
- A 12-1 Washington team that loses the Pac-12 narrowly to a two-loss (or worse) South team --or better yet, a two-loss WSU team winning the league, leaving 11-1 Washington out.
- Clemson losing the ACC championship game.
- A total bloodbath in the B1G, resulting in a two-loss team winning the league and a one-loss UM on the outside looking in.
- Boise State loses a game.
- Oklahoma wins the BDF with two losses.
You're the selection committee: are you really going to say your picks are Tennessee, Utah or Colorado, UNC or Virginia Tech, and a two-loss B1G West team (Wisconsin or Nebraska, but what the heck, Northwestern [who is still mathematically alive]? Meanwhile, you have 12-1 Alabama, 11/12-1 Washington, 12-1 Clemson, 11/12-1 UM, 11-1 Aggies, 11-1 Louisville, and 11-1 WVU (or Baylor). NB a two-loss Oklahoma team is still toast.