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Am I missing something?

3,544 Views | 25 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by jdls13
jdls13
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9:26p, 10/21/16
AG
Before Bama destroyed a decimated Tennessee team (largely thanks to us) did they really look like that much of a juggernaut? If you blindly looked at the box scores vs Arky you would probably guess our box score was bama and theirs was us. We're #6 in the nation but we're supposed to lose by 20? Kyle Allen spotted them 21 last year and we still didn't even lose by 20. I won't be surprised if the team (especially the defense) take this personal and kick the ever living, ever loving **** outta Bama.
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Ian Neff
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9:26p, 10/21/16
AG
Yep
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HustlerAggie
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9:28p, 10/21/16
Vegas is usually right.
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FriendlyAg
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9:28p, 10/21/16
No. you're not missing anything. The spread is determined by people who don't follow every game perfectly. It's determined by Vegas for the people who don't watch every game in order to entice the people who wouldn't bet to bet. Alabama undefeated plus "dual threat" QB equals a lot of ooooOoooos from unbiased observers
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FriendlyAg
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In reply to HustlerAggie • 9:29p, 10/21/16
HustlerAggie said:
Vegas is usually right.


Except when they are wrong
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jdls13
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In reply to HustlerAggie • 9:30p, 10/21/16
AG
HustlerAggie said:
Vegas is usually right.

I could be wrong but I think 6 wins was about what Vegas had us at at the beginning of the year
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HustlerAggie
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In reply to FriendlyAg • 9:30p, 10/21/16
FriendlyAg said:
HustlerAggie said:
Vegas is usually right.


Except when they are wrong
Except when they poopslap.
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Bockaneer
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In reply to jdls13 • 9:30p, 10/21/16
AG
okay but Bama versus USC and they looked unreal in game 1
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Reservoir Dog
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In reply to jdls13 • 9:32p, 10/21/16
jdls13 said:
HustlerAggie said:
Vegas is usually right.

I could be wrong but I think 6 wins was about what Vegas had us at at the beginning of the year


You may be wrong but you may be right!
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FriendlyAg
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In reply to Bockaneer • 9:34p, 10/21/16
Bockaneer said:
okay but Bama versus USC and they looked unreal in game 1


It's all for story lines. USC hype, ND hype, and Texas Hype. It's just to perpetuate our addictions to the game. Get clicks, drum up drama, etc. even if the writers knew USC was awful, if they make it a big deal, then Alabama is "that big of a deal" and it makes people follow and read even more driving more revenue when they play a&m.
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Meximan
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9:36p, 10/21/16
Vegas is actually wrong quite a bit, because they don't try to pick winners.
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aggiedad7
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9:36p, 10/21/16
Point spread is crazy. Chief and the D are too solid to lose by 3 TDs. I could see a spread of 13, but 19 is unreal. Bama would have to hold the O to less then 14 to win by 3 TDs and I just don't see that happening.
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Bockaneer
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In reply to FriendlyAg • 9:38p, 10/21/16
AG
still they were in mid season form... that's why I think they peaked too early and we'll see the good guys prevail
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No Bat Soup For You
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In reply to jdls13 • 9:44p, 10/21/16
AG
jdls13 said:
I won't be surprised if the team (especially the defense) take this personal and kick the ever living, ever loving **** outta Bama.


In 2012 we needed a Heisman Winner and a gimmicky offense.

Tomorrow were going to line up and punch them in the face.
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HustlerAggie
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In reply to Meximan • 9:46p, 10/21/16
Meximan said:
Vegas is actually wrong quite a bit, because they don't try to pick winners.
Then man up and make some easy money.
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Ragoo
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9:57p, 10/21/16
AG
bama has 11 defensive and special teams TDs. Without them they look average scoring.
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tehmackdaddy
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10:49p, 10/21/16
AG
Alabama won't score three touchdowns, let alone win by that margin.
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Midnight Rider
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In reply to jdls13 • 10:58p, 10/21/16
AG
jdls13 said:
Before Bama destroyed a decimated Tennessee team (largely thanks to us) did they really look like that much of a juggernaut? If you blindly looked at the box scores vs Arky you would probably guess our box score was bama and theirs was us. We're #6 in the nation but we're supposed to lose by 20? Kyle Allen spotted them 21 last year and we still didn't even lose by 20. I won't be surprised if the team (especially the defense) take this personal and kick the ever living, ever loving **** outta Bama.
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Emilio Fantastico
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In reply to Bockaneer • 1:18a, 10/22/16
AG
Bockaneer said:
okay but Bama versus USC and they looked unreal in game 1

Bama looked like they've looked in almost all their games this year.
Their offense struggled to score early as they didn't score until midway through the 2nd quarter. They were only up 10-3 until they got a pick six just before half.
Their defense was dominant though and that started weighing on USC and they gave up a bunch of big plays. Bama had several long TD passes where USC simply busted coverage and left guys wide open.
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AggiesAreWeTAMC
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3:07a, 10/22/16
AG
And just for those who didn't know, when people say "Vegas", they are referring to the betting public. Bettors move the lines.. Not some arbitrary entity in Vegas.. I know it seems unnecessary to explain that but surprisingly a lot of people don't know that
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stick93
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In reply to AggiesAreWeTAMC • 3:18a, 10/22/16
AG
AggiesAreWeTAMC said:
And just for those who didn't know, when people say "Vegas", they are referring to the betting public. Bettors move the lines.. Not some arbitrary entity in Vegas.. I know it seems unnecessary to explain that but surprisingly a lot of people don't know that


Not this argument again. Yes, there are "arbitrary entities" in Vegas that set lines. And, believe it or not, they will hold lines regardless of where the money is flowing.
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NyAggie
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7:13a, 10/22/16
AG
There are instances where oddsmakers try to skew the line knowing that the public will fall for it and then they clean up when it comes out the other way

There are times where they get burned by this as well

If you can figure out which lines those are you can clean up like Vegas as well
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CrottyKid
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8:50a, 10/22/16
AG
Aggies +19 is free money.
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FishingAggie
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In reply to CrottyKid • 8:55a, 10/22/16
CrottyKid said:
Aggies +19 is free money.


I believe this to be true as well.
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aggiewhoop1
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9:31a, 10/22/16
AG
Release the hounds.
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bigboykin
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10:03a, 10/22/16
AG
I saw a 2013 stat that Vegas lines were off by average 13 points for all FBS games that year. I don't have any actual stats but I've played college pick em every week for probably 8 years and I'd guess Vegas gets the outright winner wrong at least 20% of the time on average.
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jdls13
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6:22p, 10/22/16
AG
Nvm. Bama is God. Vegas is God. Time to get drunk.
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