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Auburn's D looked pretty stout against Clemson. Going to Auburn in a couple weeks and winning will be no easy task.

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Game is @Auburn so we got this

Got me wondering, soooo... (odds of winning)...

• PVA&M - 99.999% (never 100%, any given Saturday...)
• Auburn - 60% (hard to tell if Clemson isn't as good this year, but AUs offensive stats didn't look that great and our D is better over last year)
• Arkansas - 65% (not totally sure we should think much of their struggle w LA Tech yet, they've been known to have some good teams (a la 2012). But looking to that game the Arky rushing attack that gave us fits in the past didn't seem too effective.)
• S Car - 80% (they're just awful again)
• Tennessee - 51% (I still believe they'll be our hardest game outside Bama - they played down to Appy, don't be surprised to see a more focused team vs VA Tech)

Overall chance of going 6-0 into Bama - 51%... It's always the lowest probability of a single match-up.
The above was generated by a U.S. government super computer taking into account every conceivable factor, such as position-by-position comparisons, dietary habits of each player, and the projected status of each players' emotional health at kickoff.

I guess you werent a math major. Assuming your probabilities were accurate it would be a 16% chance of being 6-0

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I guess you werent a math major. Assuming your probabilities were accurate it would be a 16% chance of being 6-0

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Haha nope. But if in each the odds are we win, how is it 16%? Plus, I was going to take a simple average of winning, but in cogitating about it, seems it would always be tied to the lowest single game probability.

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Got me wondering, soooo... (odds of winning)...

• PVA&M - 99.999% (never 100%, any given Saturday...)
• Auburn - 60% (hard to tell if Clemson isn't as good this year, but AUs offensive stats didn't look that great and our D is better over last year)
• Arkansas - 65% (not totally sure we should think much of their struggle w LA Tech yet, they've been known to have some good teams (a la 2012). But looking to that game the Arky rushing attack that gave us fits in the past didn't seem too effective.)
• S Car - 80% (they're just awful again)
• Tennessee - 51% (I still believe they'll be our hardest game outside Bama - they played down to Appy, don't be surprised to see a more focused team vs VA Tech)

Overall chance of going 6-0 into Bama - 51%... It's always the lowest probability of a single match-up.
The above was generated by a U.S. government super computer taking into account every conceivable factor, such as position-by-position comparisons, dietary habits of each player, and the projected status of each players' emotional health at kickoff.

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Apparently, U.S. government super computers can't math.

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I guess you werent a math major. Assuming your probabilities were accurate it would be a 16% chance of being 6-0

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Haha nope. But if in each the odds are we win, how is it 16%? Plus, I was going to take a simple average of winning, but in cogitating about it, seems it would always be tied to the lowest single game probability.

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0.99999 x 0.6 x 0.65 x 0.8 x 0.51 = ~0.16

Vegas called. They want your bet on 6-0

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I guess you werent a math major. Assuming your probabilities were accurate it would be a 16% chance of being 6-0

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Haha nope. But if in each the odds are we win, how is it 16%? Plus, I was going to take a simple average of winning, but in cogitating about it, seems it would always be tied to the lowest single game probability.

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It would only be tied to the lowest game probability if you're making the assumption that that the most likely game we might lose is the only game we might lose.

Your PVAMU game is basicaly 100% chance of winning so, I'll throw that one out, we win it in all realistic scenarios.

Your next game is Auburn. 60% of the time we win, 40% of the time we lose, per your numbers.

Then Arkansas. We win that game 65% of the time. Since we are only still undefeated in 60% of scenarios so far (the other 40% we lose to Auburn), we have to take 65% of 60 which is 39%. Our chances of being undefeated after Arkansas are 39% now with your numbers.

Next is South Carolina, you have 80%. Now we have to take 80% of 39 which is 31.2%

Then your Tennessee game which we would only win 51% of the time. 51% of 31.2 is 15.9% chance that we win all of the games.

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Completely disagree about Arkansas. I think we absolutely crush them this year.

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This is what I said last year. Especially after they loss to Toledo and tech.

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Sure, but last year they hadn't lost a good deal of their O-line, QB, and 2 best RB's. I just think they are in a rebuilding year.

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But we did lose 4 on defense that were drafted the year prior.

It wouldn't surprise me to see us lose this weekend to TCU, lose to A&M in overtime and then win several in a row later in the year like we've done the past two years. Seems like Bielema turns into a much better coach when he has more tape to watch on an opponent throughout the season.

The thing that worries me about our game is that our secondary and OL (at least in pass pro) looked like the biggest weaknesses on the team against LA Tech and that's not good going up against your DL and WRs.

I will put 100 $ that ATM will be 6-0 at Oct. 22

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I guess you werent a math major. Assuming your probabilities were accurate it would be a 16% chance of being 6-0

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Haha nope. But if in each the odds are we win, how is it 16%? Plus, I was going to take a simple average of winning, but in cogitating about it, seems it would always be tied to the lowest single game probability.

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It would only be tied to the lowest game probability if you're making the assumption that that the most likely game we might lose is the only game we might lose.

Your PVAMU game is basicaly 100% chance of winning so, I'll throw that one out, we win it in all realistic scenarios.

Your next game is Auburn. 60% of the time we win, 40% of the time we lose, per your numbers.

Then Arkansas. We win that game 65% of the time. Since we are only still undefeated in 60% of scenarios so far (the other 40% we lose to Auburn), we have to take 65% of 60 which is 39%. Our chances of being undefeated after Arkansas are 39% now with your numbers.

Next is South Carolina, you have 80%. Now we have to take 80% of 39 which is 31.2%

Then your Tennessee game which we would only win 51% of the time. 51% of 31.2 is 15.9% chance that we win all of the games.

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lol... Damn... Not a math major, but now that you remind me... Seems so simple again... Lol

For whatever reason, my mind floated to a concept that when one item in the population was win/lose, on/off, etc., then the odds of the outcome of win for the whole population was the lowest in the population. But I remember now...

Auburn should be a formidable challenge and will need to play all 4 quarters.

Theory right so far.

theory alive

Just that good

Mattr1015 said:

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Just that good

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You're only "that good" if we are headed to Tuscalossa without a loss or a tie.

Until then, you are just some dude that made a bet on the outcome of 6 different games.

The odds of winning that bet are, well, not very good.

Mattr1015 said:

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Just that good

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I believe

Lateralus Ag said:

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Mattr1015 said:

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Just that good

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You're only "that good" if we are headed to Tuscalossa without a loss or a tie.

Until then, you are just some dude that made a bet on the outcome of 6 different games.

The odds of winning that bet are, well, not very good.

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You either have serious BAS, or you are big into rational thinking. Or worse yet, both.

Lateralus Ag said:

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Mattr1015 said:

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Just that good

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You're only "that good" if we are headed to Tuscalossa without a loss or a tie.

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I guarantee no ties.

Champ Bailey said:

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Completely disagree about Arkansas. I think we absolutely crush them this year.

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I was right too.

Agsgirl said:

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Based on the performances so far, it looks possible to me that we could beat everyone except Alabama if we keep improving and bring our B+ and A games every time. There is a good chance no one will beat Alabama.

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No one gave us a chance in 2012 either. Hopefully, T. Knight can get that magic going again against Alabama.

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I 100% thought we were going to beat Bama going into that game. Not sure if I feel that way now but I might after watching UT play them this weekend. The bye-week could not have come at a better time.

OldShadeOfBlue said:

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Agsgirl said:

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Based on the performances so far, it looks possible to me that we could beat everyone except Alabama if we keep improving and bring our B+ and A games every time. There is a good chance no one will beat Alabama.

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No one gave us a chance in 2012 either. Hopefully, T. Knight can get that magic going again against Alabama.

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I 100% thought we were going to beat Bama going into that game. Not sure if I feel that way now but I might after watching UT play them this weekend. The bye-week could not have come at a better time.

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This is how I feel this year. But I'm going to the game and hoping for the best!

Again screw are y'all against me I told you it would be the biggest game in the west this year and I was right and I predicted that we were going to be undefeated

Did the producers tell you this a month ago???

OP fails as a person.

https://texags.com/forums/5/topics/2794234